Green infrastructure (GI), a network of nature, semi-natural areas and green space, delivers essential ecosystem services which underpin human well-being and quality of life. Maintaining ecosystem ...services through the development of GI is therefore increasingly recognized by policies as a strategy to cope with potentially changing conditions in the future. This paper assessed how current trends of land-use change have an impact on the aggregated provision of eight ecosystem services at the regional scale of the European Union, measured by the Total Ecosystem Services Index (TESI8). Moreover, the paper reports how further implementation of GI across Europe can help maintain ecosystem services at baseline levels. Current demographic, economic and agricultural trends, which affect land use, were derived from the so called Reference Scenario. This scenario is established by the European Commission to assess the impact of energy and climate policy up to 2050. Under the Reference Scenario, economic growth, coupled with the total population, stimulates increasing urban and industrial expansion. TESI8 is expected to decrease across Europe between 0 and 5 % by 2020 and between 10 and 15 % by 2050 relative to the base year 2010. Based on regression analysis, we estimated that every additional percent increase of the proportion of artificial land needs to be compensated with an increase of 2.2 % of land that qualifies as green infrastructure in order to maintain ecosystem services at 2010 levels.
Water, food and energy are at the core of human needs and there is a boundless complex cycle among these three basic human needs. Ecosystems are in the center of this nexus, since they contribute to ...the provision of each component, making it imperative to understand the role of ecosystems in securing food, water and energy for human well-being. In this study we aimed to map and assess water provisioning services and associated benefits to support the ecosystem–water–food–energy nexus by taking into account environmental flow requirements for riverine ecosystems using the hydrological model Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). We developed a framework that includes indicators of renewable water (capacity of ecosystem to provide water) and water use (service flow) and we applied it in the Danube river basin over the period 1995–2004. Water scarcity indicators were used to map the possible water scarcity in the subbasins, and analyze the spatial match of water availability and water use. The results show that modelling is instrumental to perform the integrated analysis of the ecosystem–water–food–energy nexus; and that spatial mapping is a powerful tool to display environmental availability of water provisioning and regulatory services delivered by ecosystems, and can support the nexus analysis.
•Efficient water management requires spatial knowledge of water availability and use•We develop an approach for assessing and mapping water provisioning services•We implement the approach in the Danube river basin.•The approach can support assessments and policies related to the ecosystem–water–food–energy nexus
► Land use model configurations are assessed for side effects on urban compactness ► Mathematical morphology is used to characterize urban morphology ► Urban morphology is quantified using automatic ...spatial recognition software ► A composite indicator for urban compactness is developed ► Urban compactness is affected by the surrounding landscape composition ► The composite indicator is a robust measure for urban compactness
This paper introduces a composite index to characterise urban expansion patterns based on four associated indices that describe the degree of compactness of urban land: nuclearity, ribbon development, leapfrogging and branching processes. Subsequently, principal component and cluster analysis are applied to build the composite index. Two baseline scenarios and three hypothetical policy alternatives, run from 2000 to 2030 using the pan-European EU-ClueScanner 1
km resolution land use model are then used to test the sensitivity and robustness of the composite index in large urban zones (LUZs).
The second part of the paper is dedicated to the spatial analysis of a subset of large urban zones with the largest area growth in all the model runs for the year 2030. The landscape context of all built-up land in the year 2000 is analysed for the newly created urban land. It is characterised according to the proportion of natural, agricultural, built-up areas within a 7
km radius. A stepwise multiple regression analysis relating the landscape mosaic types and the composite index allowed us to understand whether or not the landscape surrounding the existing urban cores acts as the driving force responsible for the more “successful” policy alternatives in terms of urban compactness. Modellers may consider the landscape mosaic as one possible proxy to determine which urban areas are more likely to have less compact urban expansion patterns for scenarios with an increase in land claims for built-up areas.
Integrative and collaborative process adopted to design the EU Bioeconomy Monitoring System
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•An EU-wide internationally coherent system to monitor the bioeconomy is described.•The ...system will provide information on the sustainability of the bioeconomy.•A multi-dimensional and comprehensive framework is required.•EU and international experts have contributed to the design of the system.•The system will be published through the EC’s Knowledge Centre for Bioeconomy.
The EU Bioeconomy Strategy, updated in 2018, in its Action Plan pledges an EU-wide, internationally coherent monitoring system to track economic, environmental and social progress towards a sustainable bioeconomy. This paper presents the approach taken by the European Commission’s (EC) Joint Research Centre (JRC) to develop such a system. To accomplish this, we capitalise on (1) the experiences of existing indicator frameworks; (2) stakeholder knowledge and expectations; and (3) national experiences and expertise. This approach is taken to ensure coherence with other bioeconomy-related European monitoring frameworks, the usefulness for decision-making and consistency with national and international initiatives to monitor the bioeconomy. We develop a conceptual framework, based on the definition of a sustainable bioeconomy as stated in the Strategy, for a holistic analysis of the trends in the bioeconomy sectors, following the three pillars of sustainability (economy, society and environment). From this conceptual framework, we derive an implementation framework that aims to highlight the synergies and trade-offs across the five objectives of the Bioeconomy Strategy in a coherent way. The EU Bioeconomy Monitoring System will be publicly available on the web platform of the EC Knowledge Centre for Bioeconomy.
Consistent knowledge about the increment in European forests gained amplified importance in European policies and decision processes related to forest-based bioeconomy, carbon sequestration, ...sustainable forest management and environmental changes. Until now, large-area increment information from European countries was lacking international comparability. In this study we present a harmonisation framework in accordance with the principles and the approach established for the harmonisation of National Forest Inventories (NFIs) in Europe. 11 European NFIs, representing a broad range of increment measurement and estimation methods, developed unified reference definitions and methods that were subsequently implemented to provide harmonised increment estimates by NUTS regions (Nomenclature of territorial units for statistics of the European Union), main forest types and tree species groups, and to rate the impact of harmonisation measures. The main emphasis was on gross annual increment (GAI), however, also annual natural losses (ANL) and net annual increment (NAI) were estimated. The data from the latest available NFI cycles were processed. The participating countries represent a forest area of about 130 million ha, and 82% of the European Unions’ (EU) forest area, respectively. The increments were estimated in terms of volume (m³ year−1, m³ ha−1 year−1) and above-ground biomass (t year−1, t ha−1 year−1). The harmonised GAI volume estimates deviate in a range of +12.3% to −26.5% from the estimates according to the national definitions and estimation methods. Within the study area, the harmonised estimates show a considerable range over the NUTS regions for GAI, from 0.6 to 12.3 m³ ha−1 year−1, and 0.8–6.4 t ha−1 year−1, of volume and above-ground biomass, respectively. The largest increment estimates are found in Central Europe and gradually decrease towards the North, South, West and East. In most countries coniferous forests show larger increment estimates per hectare than broadleaved forests while mixed forests are at an intermediate level. However, in some instances, the differences were small or mixed forests revealed the largest increment estimates. The most important tree species groups in the study area are Pinus spp. and Picea spp., contributing 29% and 26% of the estimated total GAI volume, respectively. The shares of the prevalent broadleaved species are smaller with contributions of 9%, 7% and 6% by Quercus spp., Fagus sylvatica and Betula spp. The results underline the importance of harmonisation in international forest statistics. Looking ahead, harmonised large-area increment estimation is pivotal for accurate monitoring and evidence-based policy decisions in the changing context of future forest ecosystems dynamics, management strategies and wood availability.
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•Increment estimation approaches differ among European NFIs.•Harmonisation framework developed for gross and net annual increment.•Common increment estimation method implemented by 10 European countries.•Harmonised increments estimated for NUTS regions, forest types and tree species.•Harmonised increments improve the comparability of international forest statistics.
This paper presents a modelling approach for the spatial allocation of second-generation feedstock (lignocellulosic crops) under a reference policy scenario in European Union of 28 Member State ...(EU-28). The land-use modelling platform (LUMP) was used in order to simulate the land-use changes from 2010 to 2050. Within the LUMP, the land demand for these lignocellulosic energy crops was derived from the Common Agricultural Policy Regionalised Impact analysis model. Suitability maps were generated for two main energy crop groups: herbaceous and woody lignocellulosic crops, using multicriteria analysis techniques. Biophysical factors (climate, soil properties and topographical aspects), natural and artificial constraints and location-specific land categories were defined as relevant components within the platform. A sensitivity analysis determined the most influential factors to be temperature, precipitation, length of growing period and number of frost-free days. The results of the modelling exercise in the LUMP reflect the significant renewable energy contribution from energy crops in EU-28, which was estimated to be between 2.3 EJ/year (in 2020) and 6.3 EJ/year (in 2050), accounting for 2.3% and 9.6% of total energy consumption in the EU-28. The results of the allocation were aggregated at regional level to analyse trends. Regions with considerably high demand were identified in Germany, the United Kingdom and Poland.
This article details the process of integrating models to answer a specific policy-driven question: 'What could be the impact of proposed Natural Water Retention Measures (NWRMs) on Europe's Green ...Infrastructure (GI)?' It describes the new Land Use Modelling Platform (LUMP), now enabling a high spatial scale (100-m) and large coverage (pan-European), whereby several sector-specific models contribute to assessing the impact of regional-level policy on a given spatial topic of concern. The configuration (land claims and land allocations modules) and calibration (accessibility and biophysical suitability) of the LUMP are explained. Four NWRM scenarios (riparian areas, afforestation, grassland and baseline scenario) are configured to run the simulations. For the reference: year 2006, the spatial representation of GI is based on land-use features of a refined version of the CORINE Land Cover (CLC), and resumed as connected components made of nodes and links.
Mathematical morphological image processing and network graph theory model, available from the free software package GUIDOS (the Joint Research Center of the European Commission), enabled the measurement of the GI connectivity and identified most critical links. Results show that the competition for land claimed by different economic sectors, combined with policy-driven rule-sets for the implementation of different NWRMs, yields very different results for the 2030 land-use projections, and subsequently for the morphology of GI. Three indicators associated with the morphology of GI are computed in order to assess the model outputs for 2030. The indicators are computed to answer the following questions: (1) How is the quantity of GI affected by each of the NWRM, and what proportion of that GI is most valuable? (2) What is the location of the most critical nodes and connectors of GI, and what land-use conversions occur under these? (3) Are the average components getting larger or smaller?
Whereas the grassland measure results in the largest net increase of GI, the afforestation measure results in the overall largest number of hectares of key nodes and links within the network. Land conversions occur under the critical GI nodes and links, with a large increase in agricultural areas, especially for the riparian measure under critical nodes and the grassland measure under critical links. Also predominant is the swapping of land from pasture to forest under critical links with the afforestation measure. The riparian measure most increases the average size of GI components, and all three measures contribute to bridging two large components which were divided in the 2006 land-use map, thus increasing the size of the largest component by more than 50%.
Conflicts may be directly responsible for the modification of features in the landscape by causing damage to built-up areas or to the environment. Landscape features may also be indirectly affected ...by conflict as the result of changes in the way of life of inhabitants and their use of natural resource. Conflict-induced changes in landuse features may thus be associated with changes in population vulnerability. This study focuses on the environmental indicators for population vulnerability, an important parameter contributing to risk assessment during and after conflict.
These environmental indicators are first identified using field data and are then derived from satellite data. The satellite-derived indicators are used as model input to create a risk map for two areas in Northern Iraq that were targeted during the Anfal Campaigns in 1987 and 1988: Jafati Valley and the southern region of Dahuk. The satellite-driven model is further applied to three dates for the same study areas: 1987, 1989 and 2000–2001. The output describes the risk level within the region for each of the dates studied, and the changes which occurred in Northern Iraq as the result of the Anfal Campaigns.
Results show that spatial-based hazard risk assessment is possible using environmental indicators derived from Earth Observation data. For conflict-driven changes in the Jafati Valley study area, there is an apparent change in human activity, manifested as a conversion from agricultural land to grassland, the harvesting of rural mountainous woodland and the net disappearance of built-up areas. For this study area affected by conflict, 86% of the regions where these land cover changes occur were labelled as being at risk according to the model output. In the second study area, 63% of the changes in land cover occur in the regions labelled as being most vulnerable. Further research on this second study site shows that the area was affected by climatic and economic factors rather than conflict.
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