Stable isotope analysis is increasingly being utilised across broad areas of ecology and biology. Key to much of this work is the use of mixing models to estimate the proportion of sources ...contributing to a mixture such as in diet estimation.
By accurately reflecting natural variation and uncertainty to generate robust probability estimates of source proportions, the application of Bayesian methods to stable isotope mixing models promises to enable researchers to address an array of new questions, and approach current questions with greater insight and honesty.
We outline a framework that builds on recently published Bayesian isotopic mixing models and present a new open source R package, SIAR. The formulation in R will allow for continued and rapid development of this core model into an all-encompassing single analysis suite for stable isotope research.
1. The use of stable isotope data to infer characteristics of community structure and niche width of community members has become increasingly common. Although these developments have provided ...ecologists with new perspectives, their full impact has been hampered by an inability to statistically compare individual communities using descriptive metrics. 2. We solve these issues by reformulating the metrics in a Bayesian framework. This reformulation takes account of uncertainty in the sampled data and naturally incorporates error arising from the sampling process, propagating it through to the derived metrics. 3. Furthermore, we develop novel multivariate ellipse-based metrics as an alternative to the currently employed Convex Hull methods when applied to single community members. We show that unlike Convex Hulls, the ellipses are unbiased with respect to sample size, and their estimation via Bayesian inference allows robust comparison to be made among data sets comprising different sample sizes. 4. These new metrics, which we call SIBER (Stable Isotope Bayesian Ellipses in R), open up more avenues for direct comparison of isotopic niches across communities. The computational code to calculate the new metrics is implemented in the free-to-download package Stable Isotope Analysis for the R statistical environment.
The ongoing evolution of tracer mixing models has resulted in a confusing array of software tools that differ in terms of data inputs, model assumptions, and associated analytic products. Here we ...introduce MixSIAR, an inclusive, rich, and flexible Bayesian tracer (e.g., stable isotope) mixing model framework implemented as an open-source R package. Using MixSIAR as a foundation, we provide guidance for the implementation of mixing model analyses. We begin by outlining the practical differences between mixture data error structure formulations and relate these error structures to common mixing model study designs in ecology. Because Bayesian mixing models afford the option to specify informative priors on source proportion contributions, we outline methods for establishing prior distributions and discuss the influence of prior specification on model outputs. We also discuss the options available for source data inputs (raw data versus summary statistics) and provide guidance for combining sources. We then describe a key advantage of MixSIAR over previous mixing model software-the ability to include fixed and random effects as covariates explaining variability in mixture proportions and calculate relative support for multiple models via information criteria. We present a case study of
diet partitioning to demonstrate the power of this approach. Finally, we conclude with a discussion of limitations to mixing model applications. Through MixSIAR, we have consolidated the disparate array of mixing model tools into a single platform, diversified the set of available parameterizations, and provided developers a platform upon which to continue improving mixing model analyses in the future.
The last interglaciation (LIG, 129 to 116 thousand years ago) was the most recent time in Earth’s history when global mean sea level was substantially higher than it is at present. However, ...reconstructions of LIG global temperature remain uncertain, with estimates ranging from no significant difference to nearly 2°C warmer than present-day temperatures. Here we use a network of sea-surface temperature (SST) records to reconstruct spatiotemporal variability in regional and global SSTs during the LIG. Our results indicate that peak LIG global mean annual SSTs were 0.5 ± 0.3°C warmer than the climatological mean from 1870 to 1889 and indistinguishable from the 1995 to 2014 mean. LIG warming in the extratropical latitudes occurred in response to boreal insolation and the bipolar seesaw, whereas tropical SSTs were slightly cooler than the 1870 to 1889 mean in response to reduced mean annual insolation.
Change points of global temperature Cahill, Niamh; Rahmstorf, Stefan; Parnell, Andrew C
Environmental research letters,
08/2015, Volume:
10, Issue:
8
Journal Article
Peer reviewed
Open access
We aim to address the question of whether or not there is a significant recent 'hiatus', 'pause' or 'slowdown' of global temperature rise. Using a statistical technique known as change point (CP) ...analysis we identify the changes in four global temperature records and estimate the rates of temperature rise before and after these changes occur. For each record the results indicate that three CPs are enough to accurately capture the variability in the data with no evidence of any detectable change in the global warming trend since ∼1970. We conclude that the term 'hiatus' or 'pause' cannot be statistically justified.
Stable isotope mixing models are increasingly used to quantify consumer diets, but may be misused and misinterpreted. We address major challenges to their effective application. Mixing models have ...increased rapidly in sophistication. Current models estimate probability distributions of source contributions, have user-friendly interfaces, and incorporate complexities such as variability in isotope signatures, discrimination factors, hierarchical variance structure, covariates, and concentration dependence. For proper implementation of mixing models, we offer the following suggestions. First, mixing models can only be as good as the study and data. Studies should have clear questions, be informed by knowledge of the system, and have strong sampling designs to effectively characterize isotope variability of consumers and resources on proper spatio-temporal scales. Second, studies should use models appropriate for the question and recognize their assumptions and limitations. Decisions about source grouping or incorporation of concentration dependence can influence results. Third, studies should be careful about interpretation of model outputs. Mixing models generally estimate proportions of assimilated resources with substantial uncertainty distributions. Last, common sense, such as graphing data before analyzing, is essential to maximize usefulness of these tools. We hope these suggestions for effective implementation of stable isotope mixing models will aid continued development and application of this field.
The devastating 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami caught millions of coastal residents and the scientific community off-guard. Subsequent research in the Indian Ocean basin has identified prehistoric ...tsunamis, but the timing and recurrence intervals of such events are uncertain. Here we present an extraordinary 7,400 year stratigraphic sequence of prehistoric tsunami deposits from a coastal cave in Aceh, Indonesia. This record demonstrates that at least 11 prehistoric tsunamis struck the Aceh coast between 7,400 and 2,900 years ago. The average time period between tsunamis is about 450 years with intervals ranging from a long, dormant period of over 2,000 years, to multiple tsunamis within the span of a century. Although there is evidence that the likelihood of another tsunamigenic earthquake in Aceh province is high, these variable recurrence intervals suggest that long dormant periods may follow Sunda megathrust ruptures as large as that of the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami.
Analysis of stable isotopes in consumers is used commonly to study their ecological and/or environmental niche. There is, however, considerable debate regarding how isotopic values relate to diet and ...how other sources of variation confound this link, which can undermine the utility. From the analysis of a simple, but general, model of isotopic incorporation in consumer organisms, we examine the relationship between isotopic variance among individuals, and diet variability within a consumer population. We show that variance in consumer isotope values is directly proportional to variation in diet (through Simpson indices), to the number of isotopically distinct food sources in the diet, and to the baseline variation within and among the isotope values of the food sources. Additionally, when considering temporal diet variation within a consumer we identify the interplay between diet turnover rates and tissue turnover rates that controls the sensitivity of stable isotopes to detect diet variation. Our work demonstrates that variation in the stable isotope values of consumers reflect variation in their diet. This relationship, however, can be confounded with other factors to the extent that they may mask the signal coming from diet. We show how simple quantitative corrections can recover a direct 1:1 correlation in some situations, and in others we can adjust our interpretation in light of the new understanding arising from our models. Our framework provides guidance for the design and analysis of empirical studies where the goal is to infer niche width from stable isotope data.
Stable isotope ratios are used to reconstruct animal diet in trophic ecology via mixing models. Several assumptions of stable isotope mixing models are critical, i.e., constant trophic discrimination ...factor and isotopic equilibrium between the consumer and its diet. The isotopic turnover rate (λ and its counterpart the half-life) affects the dynamics of isotopic incorporation for an organism and the isotopic equilibrium assumption: λ involves a time lag between the real assimilated diet and the diet estimated by mixing models at the individual scale. Current stable isotope mixing model studies consider neither this time lag nor even the dynamics of isotopic ratios in general. We developed a mechanistic framework using a dynamic mixing model (DMM) to assess the contribution of λ to the dynamics of isotopic incorporation and to estimate the bias induced by neglecting the time lag in diet reconstruction in conventional static mixing models (SMMs). The DMM includes isotope dynamics of sources (denoted δs), λ and frequency of diet-switch (ω). The results showed a significant bias generated by the SMM compared to the DMM (up to 50% of differences). This bias can be strongly reduced in SMMs by averaging the isotopic variations of the food sources over a time window equal to twice the isotopic half-life. However, the bias will persist (∼15%) for intermediate values of the ω/λ ratio. The inferences generated using a case study highlighted that DMM enhanced estimates of consumer's diet, and this could avoid misinterpretation in ecosystem functioning, food-web structure analysis and underlying biological processes.
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