The presence of a developed boundary layer decouples a glacier's response from ambient conditions, suggesting that sensitivity to climate change is increased by glacier retreat. To test this ...hypothesis, we explore six years of distributed meteorological data on a small Swiss glacier in the period 2001–2022. Large glacier fragmentation has occurred since 2001 (−35% area change up to 2022) coinciding with notable frontal retreat, an observed switch from down‐glacier katabatic to up‐glacier valley winds and an increased sensitivity (ratio) of on‐glacier to off‐glacier temperature. As the glacier ceases to develop density‐driven katabatic winds, sensible heat fluxes on the glacier are increasingly determined by the conditions occurring outside the boundary layer of the glacier, sealing the glacier's demise as the climate continues to warm and experience an increased frequency of extreme summers.
Plain Language Summary
Down‐glacier winds promote a unique micro‐climate, maintaining relatively lower temperatures over the surface of mountain glaciers. Using six years of meteorological data in the period 2001–2022, we observe increases in the relative changes of above‐ice air temperatures compared to temperatures outside the glacier. As the glacier ceases to develop its own micro‐climate, warmer winds generated by heated valley slopes increasingly control the amount of heat transfer to melt glacier ice. This work offers new observational evidence that suggests that, as glaciers continue to shrink and fragment, they becoming increasingly sensitive to future climate warming.
Key Points
On‐glacier air temperatures have become more sensitive to ambient temperatures in a warming climate
Up‐valley winds have increased >20% between 2001 and 2021, making sensible heat fluxes more dependent on conditions outside the glacier
The decay of the katabatic system due to glacier retreat indicates a nonlinear sensitivity of the glacier to continued warming
Supraglacial ponds play a key role in absorbing atmospheric energy and directing it to the ice of debris-covered glaciers, but the spatial and temporal distribution of these features is not well ...documented. We analyse 172 Landsat TM/ETM+ scenes for the period 1999–2013 to identify thawed supraglacial ponds for the debris-covered tongues of five glaciers in the Langtang Valley of Nepal. We apply an advanced atmospheric correction routine (Landcor/6S) and use band ratio and image morphological techniques to identify ponds and validate our results with 2.5 m Cartosat-1 observations. We then characterize the spatial, seasonal and interannual patterns of ponds. We find high variability in pond incidence between glaciers (May–October means of 0.08–1.69% of debris area), with ponds most frequent in zones of low surface gradient and velocity. The ponds show pronounced seasonality, appearing in the pre-monsoon as snow melts, peaking at the monsoon onset at 2% of debris-covered area, then declining in the post-monsoon as ponds drain or freeze. Ponds are highly recurrent and persistent, with 40.5% of pond locations occurring for multiple years. Rather than a trend in pond cover over the study period, we find high interannual variability for each glacier after controlling for seasonality.
Abstract Background In older people, hip fractures often lead to disability and death. We evaluated handgrip strength, an objective measure of physical function for bedridden patients, as a predictor ...of walking recovery in the year after fracture surgery. Methods This multicenter prospective cohort study included 504 patients, aged 70 years or more, who were admitted to the hospital for hip fracture surgery and were formerly able to walk independently. A multidimensional geriatric evaluation that included a physical examination, Short Portable Mental Status Questionnaire, Geriatric Depression Scale, Charlson Index, Basic Activities of Daily Living, and grip strength was administered at the time of admission. Follow-ups were performed every 3 months for 1 year after surgery to assess functional status and survival. The walking recovery probability was evaluated using multivariable logistic regression models. Results The mean age of the participants was 85.3 ± 5.5 years, and 76.1% of the participants were women. The mean grip strength was greater in men (β: 6.6 ± 0.62, P < .001) and was directly related to the Short Portable Mental Status Questionnaire results ( P < .001), Basic Activities of Daily Living results ( P < . 001), serum vitamin D levels ( P = .03), and time before surgery ( P < .001), whereas it was inversely related to age ( P < .001), Geriatric Depression Scale score ( P < .001), and Charlson Index ( P < .001). After adjusting for confounders, the grip strength was directly associated with the probability of both incident and persistent walking recovery (odds ratio highest tertile vs lowest tertile, 2.84, confidence interval, 1.76-4.59 and 2.79, confidence interval, 1.35-5.79, respectively). Conclusions In older patients with hip fractures, early grip strength evaluation might provide important prognostic information regarding the patient's future functional trajectory.
Ice cliffs might be partly responsible for the high mass losses of debris-covered glaciers in the Hindu Kush-Karakoram-Himalaya region. The few existing models of cliff backwasting are point-scale ...models applied at few locations or assume cliffs to be planes with constant slope and aspect, a major simplification given the complex surfaces of most cliffs. We develop the first grid-based model of cliff backwasting for two cliffs on debris-covered Lirung Glacier, Nepal. The model includes an improved representation of shortwave and longwave radiation, and their interplay with the glacier topography. Shortwave radiation varies considerably across the two cliffs, mostly due to direct radiation. Diffuse radiation is the major shortwave component, as the direct component is strongly reduced by the cliffs’ aspect and slope through self-shading. Incoming longwave radiation is higher than the total incoming shortwave flux, due to radiation emitted by the surrounding terrain, which is 25% of the incoming flux. Melt is highly variable in space, suggesting that simple models provide inaccurate estimates of total melt volumes. Although only representing 0.09% of the glacier tongue area, the total melt at the two cliffs over the measurement period is 2313 and 8282 m3, 1.23% of the total melt simulated by a glacio-hydrological model for the glacier’s tongue.
Debris-covered glaciers play an important role in the high-altitude water cycle in the Himalaya, yet their dynamics are poorly understood, partly because of the difficult fieldwork conditions. In ...this study we therefore deploy an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) three times (May 2013, October 2013 and May 2014) over the debris-covered Lirung Glacier in Nepal. The acquired data are processed into orthomosaics and elevation models by a Structure from Motion workflow, and seasonal surface velocity is derived using frequency cross-correlation. In order to obtain optimal surface velocity products, the effects of different input data and correlator configurations are evaluated, which reveals that the orthomosaic as input paired with moderate correlator settings provides the best results. The glacier has considerable spatial and seasonal differences in surface velocity, with maximum summer and winter velocities 6 and 2.5 m a-1, respectively, in the upper part of the tongue, while the lower part is nearly stagnant. It is hypothesized that the higher velocities during summer are caused by basal sliding due to increased lubrication of the bed. We conclude that UAVs have great potential to quantify seasonal and annual variations in flow and can help to further our understanding of debris-covered glaciers.
Supraglacial ponds on debris-covered glaciers present a mechanism of atmosphere/glacier energy transfer that is poorly studied, and only conceptually included in mass-balance studies of ...debris-covered glaciers. This research advances previous efforts to develop a model of mass and energy balance for supraglacial ponds by applying a free-convection approach to account for energy exchanges at the subaqueous bare-ice surfaces. We develop the model using field data from a pond on Lirung Glacier, Nepal, that was monitored during the 2013 and 2014 monsoon periods. Sensitivity testing is performed for several key parameters, and alternative melt algorithms are compared with the model. The pond acts as a significant recipient of energy for the glacier system, and actively participates in the glacier’s hydrologic system during the monsoon. Melt rates are 2-4 cm d-1 (total of 98.5 m3 over the study period) for bare ice in contact with the pond, and <1 mmd-1 (total of 10.6m3) for the saturated debris zone. The majority of absorbed atmospheric energy leaves the pond system through englacial conduits, delivering sufficient energy to melt 2612 m3 additional ice over the study period (38.4 m3 d-1). Such melting might be expected to lead to subsidence of the glacier surface. Supraglacial ponds efficiently convey atmospheric energy to the glacier’s interior and rapidly promote the downwasting process.
Mass losses originating from supraglacial ice cliffs at the lower tongues of debris-covered glaciers are a potentially large component of the mass balance, but have rarely been quantified. In this ...study, we develop a method to estimate ice cliff volume losses based on high-resolution topographic data derived from terrestrial and aerial photogrammetry. We apply our method to six cliffs monitored in May and October 2013 and 2014 using four different topographic datasets collected over the debris-covered Lirung Glacier of the Nepalese Himalayas. During the monsoon, the cliff mean backwasting rate was relatively consistent in 2013 (3.8 ± 0.3 cm w.e. d−1) and more heterogeneous among cliffs in 2014 (3.1 ± 0.7 cm w.e. d−1), and the geometric variations between cliffs are larger. Their mean backwasting rate is significantly lower in winter (October 2013–May 2014), at 1.0 ± 0.3 cm w.e. d−1. These results are consistent with estimates of cliff ablation from an energy-balance model developed in a previous study. The ice cliffs lose mass at rates six times higher than estimates of glacier-wide melt under debris, which seems to confirm that ice cliffs provide a large contribution to total glacier melt.
The seasonal dynamic changes of Tibetan glaciers have seen little prior investigation, despite the increase in geodetic studies of multi-year changes. This study compares seasonal glacier dynamics ...(“cold” and “warm” seasons) in the ablation zone of Parlung No. 4 Glacier, a temperate glacier in the monsoon-influenced southeastern Tibetan Plateau, by using repeat unpiloted aerial vehicle (UAV) surveys combined with Structure-from-Motion (SfM) photogrammetry and ground stake measurements. Our results showed that the surveyed ablation zone had a mean change of −2.7 m of ice surface elevation during the period of September 2018 to October 2019 but is characterized by significant seasonal cyclic variations with ice surface elevation lifting (+2.0 m) in the cold season (September 2018 to June 2019) but lowering (−4.7 m) in the warm season (June 2019 to October 2019). Over an annual timescale, surface lowering was greatly suppressed by the resupply of ice from the glacier’s accumulation area—the annual emergence velocity compensates for about 55% of surface ablation in our study area. Cold season emergence velocities (3.0 ± 1.2 m) were ~5-times larger than those observed in the warm season (0.6 ± 1.0 m). Distinct spring precipitation patterns may contribute to these distinct seasonal signals. Such seasonal dynamic conditions are possibly critical for different glacier responses to climate change in this region of the Tibetan Plateau, and perhaps further afield.
Assessment of water resources from remote mountainous catchments plays a crucial role for the development of rural areas in or in the vicinity of mountain ranges. The scarcity of data, however, ...prevents the application of standard approaches that are based on data-driven models. The Hindu Kush–Karakoram–Himalaya mountain range is a crucial area in terms of water resources, but our understanding of the response of its high-elevation catchments to a changing climate is hindered by lack of hydro-meteorological and cryospheric data. Hydrological modeling is challenging here because internal inconsistencies—such as an underestimation of precipitation input that can be compensated for by an overestimation of meltwater—might be hidden due to the complexity of feedback mechanisms that govern melt and runoff generation in such basins. Data scarcity adds to this difficulty by preventing the application of systematic calibration procedures that would allow identification of the parameter set that could guarantee internal consistency in the simulation of the single hydrological components. In this work, we use simulations from the Hunza River Basin in the Karakoram region obtained with the hydrological model TOPKAPI to quantify the predictive power of discharge and snow-cover data sets, as well as the combination of both. We also show that short-term measurements of meteorological variables such as radiative fluxes, wind speed, relative humidity, and air temperature from glacio-meteorological experiments are crucial for a correct parameterization of surface melt processes. They enable detailed simulations of the energy fluxes governing glacier–atmosphere interaction and the resulting ablation through energy-balance modeling. These simulations are used to derive calibrated parameters for the simplified snow and glacier routines in TOPKAPI. We demonstrate that such parameters are stable in space and time in similar climatic regions, thus reducing the number of parameters requiring calibration.
PDF
