Glaciers in High Mountain Asia generate meltwater that supports the water needs of 250 million people, but current knowledge of annual accumulation and ablation is limited to sparse field ...measurements biased in location and glacier size. Here, we present altitudinally-resolved specific mass balances (surface, internal, and basal combined) for 5527 glaciers in High Mountain Asia for 2000-2016, derived by correcting observed glacier thinning patterns for mass redistribution due to ice flow. We find that 41% of glaciers accumulated mass over less than 20% of their area, and only 60% ± 10% of regional annual ablation was compensated by accumulation. Even without 21
century warming, 21% ± 1% of ice volume will be lost by 2100 due to current climatic-geometric imbalance, representing a reduction in glacier ablation into rivers of 28% ± 1%. The ablation of glaciers in the Himalayas and Tien Shan was mostly unsustainable and ice volume in these regions will reduce by at least 30% by 2100. The most important and vulnerable glacier-fed river basins (Amu Darya, Indus, Syr Darya, Tarim Interior) were supplied with >50% sustainable glacier ablation but will see long-term reductions in ice mass and glacier meltwater supply regardless of the Karakoram Anomaly.
Supraglacial ice cliffs exist on debris-covered glaciers worldwide, but despite their importance as melt hot spots, their life cycle is little understood. Early field observations had advanced a ...hypothesis of survival of north-facing and disappearance of south-facing cliffs, which is central for predicting the contribution of cliffs to total glacier mass losses. Their role as windows of energy transfer suggests they may explain the anomalously high mass losses of debris-covered glaciers in High Mountain Asia (HMA) despite the insulating debris, currently at the center of a debated controversy. We use a 3D model of cliff evolution coupled to very high-resolution topographic data to demonstrate that ice cliffs facing south (in the Northern Hemisphere) disappear within a few months due to enhanced solar radiation receipts and that aspect is the key control on cliffs evolution. We reproduce continuous flattening of south-facing cliffs, a result of their vertical gradient of incoming solar radiation and sky view factor. Our results establish that only north-facing cliffs are recurrent features and thus stable contributors to the melting of debris-covered glaciers. Satellite observations and mass balance modeling confirms that few south-facing cliffs of small size exist on the glaciers of Langtang, and their contribution to the glacier volume losses is very small (∼1%). This has major implications for the mass balance of HMA debris-covered glaciers as it provides the basis for new parameterizations of cliff evolution and distribution to constrain volume losses in a region where glaciers are highly relevant as water sources for millions of people.
Mountain ranges are the world’s natural water towers and provide water resources for millions of people. However, their hydrological balance and possible future changes in river flow remain poorly ...understood because of high meteorological variability, physical inaccessibility, and the complex interplay between climate, cryosphere, and hydrological processes. Here, we use a state-of-the art glacio-hydrological model informed by data from high-altitude observations and the latest climate change scenarios to quantify the climate change impact on water resources of two contrasting catchments vulnerable to changes in the cryosphere. The two study catchments are located in the Central Andes of Chile and in the Nepalese Himalaya in close vicinity of densely populated areas. Although both sites reveal a strong decrease in glacier area, they show a remarkably different hydrological response to projected climate change. In the Juncal catchment in Chile, runoff is likely to sharply decrease in the future and the runoff seasonality is sensitive to projected climatic changes. In the Langtang catchment in Nepal, future water availability is on the rise for decades to come with limited shifts between seasons. Owing to the high spatiotemporal resolution of the simulations and process complexity included in the modeling, the response times and the mechanisms underlying the variations in glacier area and river flow can be well constrained. The projections indicate that climate change adaptation in Central Chile should focus on dealing with a reduction in water availability, whereas in Nepal preparedness for flood extremes should be the policy priority.
Glaciers are key components of the mountain water towers of Asia and are vital for downstream domestic, agricultural, and industrial uses. The glacier mass loss rate over the southeastern Tibetan ...Plateau is among the highest in Asia and has accelerated in recent decades. This acceleration has been attributed to increased warming, but the mechanisms behind these glaciers' high sensitivity to warming remain unclear, while the influence of changes in precipitation over the past decades is poorly quantified. Here, we reconstruct glacier mass changes and catchment runoff since 1975 at a benchmark glacier, Parlung No. 4, to shed light on the drivers of recent mass losses for the monsoonal, spring-accumulation glaciers of the Tibetan Plateau. Our modeling demonstrates how a temperature increase (mean of 0.39
C ⋅dec
since 1990) has accelerated mass loss rates by altering both the ablation and accumulation regimes in a complex manner. The majority of the post-2000 mass loss occurred during the monsoon months, caused by simultaneous decreases in the solid precipitation ratio (from 0.70 to 0.56) and precipitation amount (-10%), leading to reduced monsoon accumulation (-26%). Higher solid precipitation in spring (+18%) during the last two decades was increasingly important in mitigating glacier mass loss by providing mass to the glacier and protecting it from melting in the early monsoon. With bare ice exposed to warmer temperatures for longer periods, icemelt and catchment discharge have unsustainably intensified since the start of the 21st century, raising concerns for long-term water supply and hazard occurrence in the region.
Estimates of melt from debris-covered glaciers require distributed estimates of meteorological variables and air temperature in particular. Meteorological data are scarce for this environment, and ...spatial variability of temperature over debris is poorly understood. Based on multiple measurements of air and surface temperature from three ablation seasons (2012–14) we investigate the variability of temperature over Lirung Glacier, Nepal, in order to reveal how air temperature is affected by the debris cover and improve ways to extrapolate it. We investigate how much on-glacier temperature deviates from that predicted from a valley lapse rate (LR), analyse on-glacier LRs and test regression models of air temperature and surface temperature. Air temperature over the debris-covered glacier tongue is much higher than what a valley LR would prescribe, so an extrapolation from off-glacier stations is not applicable. An on-glacier LR is clearly defined at night, with strong correlation, but not during the day, when the warming debris disrupts the elevation control. An alternative to derive daytime air temperature is to use a relationship between air and surface temperature, as previously suggested. We find strong variability during daytime that should be accounted for if these regressions are used for temperature extrapolation.
Glaciers in High Mountain Asia, many of which exhibit surface debris, contain the largest volume of ice outside of the polar regions. Many contain supraglacial pond networks that enhance melt rates ...locally, but no large‐scale assessment of their impact on melt rates exists. Here we use surface energy balance modeling forced using locally measured meteorological data and monthly satellite‐derived pond distributions to estimate the total melt enhancement for the four main glaciers within the 400‐km2 Langtang catchment, Nepal, for a 6‐month period in 2014. Ponds account for 0.20 ± 0.03 m/year of surface melt, representing a local melt enhancement of a factor of 14 ± 3 compared with the debris‐covered area, and equivalent to 12.5 ± 2.0% of total catchment ice loss. Given the prevalence of supraglacial ponds across the region, our results suggest that effective incorporation of melt enhancement by ponds is essential for accurate predictions of future mass balance change in the region.
Plain Language Summary
Glaciers in the high mountains of Asia provide an important water resource for millions of people. Many of these glaciers are partially covered by rocky debris, which protects the ice from solar radiation and warm air. However, studies have found that the surface of these debris‐covered glaciers is actually lowering as fast as glaciers without debris. Water ponded on the surface of the glaciers may be partially responsible, as water can absorb atmospheric energy very efficiently. However, the overall effect of these ponds has not been thoroughly assessed yet. We study a valley in Nepal for which we have extensive weather measurements, and we use a numerical model to calculate the energy absorbed by ponds on the surface of the glaciers over 6 months. As we have not observed each individual pond thoroughly, we run the model 5,000 times with different setups. We find that ponds are extremely important for glacier melt and absorb energy 14 times as quickly as the debris‐covered ice. Although the ponds account for 1% of the glacier area covered by rocks, and only 0.3% of the total glacier area, they absorb enough energy to account for one eighth of the whole valley's ice loss.
Key Points
We present the first catchment-scale study of supraglacial pond energy balance, using seasonal pond coverages and 5,000 parameter sets
Ponds cover 1.0% of debris‐covered area (0.3% of total glacier area), yet energy receipts equate to 12.5 ± 2.0% of catchment annual mass loss
Daily net surface energy balance was positive for the entire study period and elevation range, leading to a melt enhancement factor of 14 ± 3
Thick debris cover on glaciers can significantly reduce ice melt. However, several studies have suggested that debris-covered glaciers in the Himalaya might have lost mass at a rate similar to ...debris-free glaciers. We reconstruct elevation and mass changes for the debris-covered glaciers of the upper Langtang valley, Nepalese Himalaya, using a digital elevation model (DEM) from 1974 stereo Hexagon satellite data and the 2000 SRTM (Shuttle Radar Topography Mission) DEM. Uncertainties are high in the accumulation areas, due to data gaps in the SRTM and difficulties with delineation of the glacier borders. Even with these uncertainties, we obtain thinning rates comparable to those of several other studies in the Himalaya. In particular, we obtain a total mass balance for the investigated debris-covered glaciers of the basin of –0.32 ± 0.18 m w.e. a−1. However, there are major spatial differences both between glaciers and within any single glacier, exhibiting a very distinct nonlinear mass-balance profile with elevation. Through analysis of surface velocities derived from Landsat ETM+ imagery, we show that thinning occurs in areas of low velocity and low slope. These areas are prone to a general, dynamic decay of surface features and to the development of supraglacial lakes and ice cliffs, which may be responsible for a considerable increase in overall glacier ablation.
Ice cliffs and ponds on debris-covered glaciers have received increased attention due to their role in amplifying local melt. However, very few studies have looked at these features on the catchment ...scale to determine their patterns and changes in space and time. We have compiled a detailed inventory of cliffs and ponds in the Langtang catchment, central Himalaya, from six high-resolution satellite orthoimages and DEMs between 2006 and 2015, and a historic orthophoto from 1974. Cliffs cover between 1.4% (± 0.4%) in the dry and 3.4% (± 0.9%) in the wet seasons and ponds between 0.6% (± 0.1%) and 1.6% (± 0.3%) of the total debris-covered tongues. We find large variations between seasons, as cliffs and ponds tend to grow in the wetter monsoon period, but there is no obvious trend in total area over the study period. The inventory further shows that cliffs are predominately north-facing irrespective of the glacier flow direction. Both cliffs and ponds appear in higher densities several hundred metres from the terminus in areas where tributaries reach the main glacier tongue. On the largest glacier in the catchment ~10% of all cliffs and ponds persisted over nearly a decade.
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