Transitioning to sustainability will require technological innovations in the short term, but also cultural change to embrace traditional and Indigenous ideas of respect, responsibility, sufficiency, ...and reciprocity to reduce consumption in the long term.
In recent years, several extreme weather disasters have partially or completely damaged regional crop production. While detailed regional accounts of the effects of extreme weather disasters exist, ...the global scale effects of droughts, floods and extreme temperature on crop production are yet to be quantified. Here we estimate for the first time, to our knowledge, national cereal production losses across the globe resulting from reported extreme weather disasters during 1964-2007. We show that droughts and extreme heat significantly reduced national cereal production by 9-10%, whereas our analysis could not identify an effect from floods and extreme cold in the national data. Analysing the underlying processes, we find that production losses due to droughts were associated with a reduction in both harvested area and yields, whereas extreme heat mainly decreased cereal yields. Furthermore, the results highlight ~7% greater production damage from more recent droughts and 8-11% more damage in developed countries than in developing ones. Our findings may help to guide agricultural priorities in international disaster risk reduction and adaptation efforts.
While changes in temperature and precipitation extremes are evident, their influence on crop yield variability remains unclear. Here we present a global analysis detecting yield variability change ...and attributing it to recent climate change using spatially-explicit global data sets of historical yields and an agro-climatic index based on daily weather data. The agro-climatic index used here is the sum of effective global radiation intercepted by the crop canopy during the yield formation stage that includes thresholds for extreme temperatures and extreme soil moisture deficit. Results show that year-to-year variations in yields of maize, soybean, rice and wheat in 1981-2010 significantly decreased in 19%-33% of the global harvested area with varying extent of area by crop. However, in 9%-22% of harvested area, significant increase in yield variability was detected. Major crop-producing regions with increased yield variability include maize and soybean in Argentina and Northeast China, rice in Indonesia and Southern China, and wheat in Australia, France and Ukraine. Examples of relatively food-insecure regions with increased yield variability are maize in Kenya and Tanzania and rice in Bangladesh and Myanmar. On a global scale, over 21% of the yield variability change could be explained by the change in variability of the agro-climatic index. More specifically, the change in variability of temperatures exceeding the optimal range for yield formation was more important in explaining the yield variability change than other abiotic stresses, such as temperature below the optimal range for yield formation and soil water deficit. Our findings show that while a decrease in yield variability is the main trend worldwide across crops, yields in some regions of the world have become more unstable, suggesting the need for long-term global yield monitoring and a better understanding of the contributions of technology, management, policy and climate to ongoing yield variability change.
Organic agriculture is often proposed as a more sustainable alternative to current conventional agriculture. We assess the current understanding of the costs and benefits of organic agriculture ...across multiple production, environmental, producer, and consumer dimensions. Organic agriculture shows many potential benefits (including higher biodiversity and improved soil and water quality per unit area, enhanced profitability, and higher nutritional value) as well as many potential costs including lower yields and higher consumer prices. However, numerous important dimensions have high uncertainty, particularly the environmental performance when controlling for lower organic yields, but also yield stability, soil erosion, water use, and labor conditions. We identify conditions that influence the relative performance of organic systems, highlighting areas for increased research and policy support.
Numerous reports have emphasized the need for major changes in the global food system: agriculture must meet the twin challenge of feeding a growing population, with rising demand for meat and ...high-calorie diets, while simultaneously minimizing its global environmental impacts. Organic farming—a system aimed at producing food with minimal harm to ecosystems, animals or humans—is often proposed as a solution. However, critics argue that organic agriculture may have lower yields and would therefore need more land to produce the same amount of food as conventional farms, resulting in more widespread deforestation and biodiversity loss, and thus undermining the environmental benefits of organic practices. Here we use a comprehensive meta-analysis to examine the relative yield performance of organic and conventional farming systems globally. Our analysis of available data shows that, overall, organic yields are typically lower than conventional yields. But these yield differences are highly contextual, depending on system and site characteristics, and range from 5% lower organic yields (rain-fed legumes and perennials on weak-acidic to weak-alkaline soils), 13% lower yields (when best organic practices are used), to 34% lower yields (when the conventional and organic systems are most comparable). Under certain conditions—that is, with good management practices, particular crop types and growing conditions—organic systems can thus nearly match conventional yields, whereas under others it at present cannot. To establish organic agriculture as an important tool in sustainable food production, the factors limiting organic yields need to be more fully understood, alongside assessments of the many social, environmental and economic benefits of organic farming systems.
Most studies of the influence of weather and climate on food production have examined the influence on crop yields. However, climate influences all components of crop production, includes cropping ...area (area planted or harvested) and cropping intensity (number of crops grown within a year). Although yield increases have predominantly contributed to increased crop production over the recent decades, increased cropping area as well as increases in cropping intensity, especially in the tropics, have played a substantial role. Therefore, we need to consider these important aspects of production to get a more complete understanding of the future impacts of climate change. This article reviews available evidence on how climate might influence these under-studied components of crop production. We also discuss how farmer decision making and technology might modulate the production response to climate. We conclude by discussing important knowledge gaps that need to be addressed in future research and potential ways for moving forward.
•Climate affects all components of crop production (area, intensity and yield).•Yet, most studies to date have focussed on estimating climate impacts on yields.•We review the literature on the climatic impacts on cropping area and intensity.•We outline major knowledge gaps and discuss future research needs.
The eighteenth-century Malthusian prediction of population growth outstripping food production has not yet come to bear. Unprecedented agricultural land expansions since 1700, and technological ...innovations that began in the 1930s, have enabled more calorie production per capita than was ever available before in history. This remarkable success, however, has come at a great cost. Agriculture is a major cause of global environmental degradation. Malnutrition persists among large sections of the population, and a new epidemic of obesity is on the rise. We review both the successes and failures of the global food system, addressing ongoing debates on pathways to environmental health and food security. To deal with these challenges, a new coordinated research program blending modern breeding with agro-ecological methods is needed. We call on plant biologists to lead this effort and help steer humanity toward a safe operating space for agriculture.
Extreme heat stress during the crop reproductive period can be critical for crop productivity. Projected changes in the frequency and severity of extreme climatic events are expected to negatively ...impact crop yields and global food production. This study applies the global crop model PEGASUS to quantify, for the first time at the global scale, impacts of extreme heat stress on maize, spring wheat and soybean yields resulting from 72 climate change scenarios for the 21st century. Our results project maize to face progressively worse impacts under a range of RCPs but spring wheat and soybean to improve globally through to the 2080s due to CO2 fertilization effects, even though parts of the tropic and sub-tropic regions could face substantial yield declines. We find extreme heat stress at anthesis (HSA) by the 2080s (relative to the 1980s) under RCP 8.5, taking into account CO2 fertilization effects, could double global losses of maize yield (ΔY = −12.8 ± 6.7% versus − 7.0 ± 5.3% without HSA), reduce projected gains in spring wheat yield by half (ΔY = 34.3 ± 13.5% versus 72.0 ± 10.9% without HSA) and in soybean yield by a quarter (ΔY = 15.3 ± 26.5% versus 20.4 ± 22.1% without HSA). The range reflects uncertainty due to differences between climate model scenarios; soybean exhibits both positive and negative impacts, maize is generally negative and spring wheat generally positive. Furthermore, when assuming CO2 fertilization effects to be negligible, we observe drastic climate mitigation policy as in RCP 2.6 could avoid more than 80% of the global average yield losses otherwise expected by the 2080s under RCP 8.5. We show large disparities in climate impacts across regions and find extreme heat stress adversely affects major producing regions and lower income countries.
Humans have fundamentally altered global patterns of biodiversity and ecosystem processes. Surprisingly, existing systems for representing these global patterns, including biome classifications, ...either ignore humans altogether or simplify human influence into, at most, four categories. Here, we present the first characterization of terrestrial biomes based on global patterns of sustained, direct human interaction with ecosystems. Eighteen âanthropogenic biomesâ were identified through empirical analysis of global population, land use, and land cover. More than 75% of Earth's iceâfree land showed evidence of alteration as a result of human residence and land use, with less than a quarter remaining as wildlands, supporting just 11% of terrestrial net primary production. Anthropogenic biomes offer a new way forward by acknowledging human influence on global ecosystems and moving us toward models and investigations of the terrestrial biosphere that integrate human and ecological systems.
The widely reported claim that smallholders produce 70–80% of the world’s food has been a linchpin of agricultural development policy despite limited empirical evidence. Recent empirical attempts to ...reinvestigate this number have lacked raw data on how much food smallholders produce, and have relied on model assumptions with unknown biases and with limited spatial and commodity coverage. We examine variations in crop production by farm size using a newly-compiled global sample of subnational level microdata and agricultural censuses covering more countries (n=55) and crop types (n=154) than assessed to date. We estimate that farms under 2ha globally produce 28–31% of total crop production and 30–34% of food supply on 24% of gross agricultural area. Farms under 2ha devote a greater proportion of their production to food, and account for greater crop diversity, while farms over 1000ha have the greatest proportion of post-harvest loss.
•New global sample of 55 countries, representing 51% of global crop production.•Direct measurements of crop production, nutrient and crop diversity by farm size.•Estimates food, feed, processing, seed, and post-harvest loss by farm size.•Farms under 2 ha produce 30–34% of food supply on 24% of gross agricultural area.•As farms get larger, crop diversity declines and post-harvest loss increases.
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