This paper considers the use of a simple posterior sampling algorithm to balance between exploration and exploitation when learning to optimize actions such as in multiarmed bandit problems. The ...algorithm, also known as
Thompson Sampling
and as
probability matching
, offers significant advantages over the popular upper confidence bound (UCB) approach, and can be applied to problems with finite or infinite action spaces and complicated relationships among action rewards. We make two theoretical contributions. The first establishes a connection between posterior sampling and UCB algorithms. This result lets us convert regret bounds developed for UCB algorithms into Bayesian regret bounds for posterior sampling. Our second theoretical contribution is a Bayesian regret bound for posterior sampling that applies broadly and can be specialized to many model classes. This bound depends on a new notion we refer to as the
eluder dimension
, which measures the degree of dependence among action rewards. Compared to UCB algorithm Bayesian regret bounds for specific model classes, our general bound matches the best available for linear models and is stronger than the best available for generalized linear models. Further, our analysis provides insight into performance advantages of posterior sampling, which are highlighted through simulation results that demonstrate performance surpassing recently proposed UCB algorithms.
Machine learning methods have been applied to many data sets in pharmaceutical research for several decades. The relative ease and availability of fingerprint type molecular descriptors paired with ...Bayesian methods resulted in the widespread use of this approach for a diverse array of end points relevant to drug discovery. Deep learning is the latest machine learning algorithm attracting attention for many of pharmaceutical applications from docking to virtual screening. Deep learning is based on an artificial neural network with multiple hidden layers and has found considerable traction for many artificial intelligence applications. We have previously suggested the need for a comparison of different machine learning methods with deep learning across an array of varying data sets that is applicable to pharmaceutical research. End points relevant to pharmaceutical research include absorption, distribution, metabolism, excretion, and toxicity (ADME/Tox) properties, as well as activity against pathogens and drug discovery data sets. In this study, we have used data sets for solubility, probe-likeness, hERG, KCNQ1, bubonic plague, Chagas, tuberculosis, and malaria to compare different machine learning methods using FCFP6 fingerprints. These data sets represent whole cell screens, individual proteins, physicochemical properties as well as a data set with a complex end point. Our aim was to assess whether deep learning offered any improvement in testing when assessed using an array of metrics including AUC, F1 score, Cohen’s kappa, Matthews correlation coefficient and others. Based on ranked normalized scores for the metrics or data sets Deep Neural Networks (DNN) ranked higher than SVM, which in turn was ranked higher than all the other machine learning methods. Visualizing these properties for training and test sets using radar type plots indicates when models are inferior or perhaps over trained. These results also suggest the need for assessing deep learning further using multiple metrics with much larger scale comparisons, prospective testing as well as assessment of different fingerprints and DNN architectures beyond those used.
A variety of machine learning methods such as naive Bayesian, support vector machines and more recently deep neural networks are demonstrating their utility for drug discovery and development. These ...leverage the generally bigger datasets created from high-throughput screening data and allow prediction of bioactivities for targets and molecular properties with increased levels of accuracy. We have only just begun to exploit the potential of these techniques but they may already be fundamentally changing the research process for identifying new molecules and/or repurposing old drugs. The integrated application of such machine learning models for end-to-end (E2E) application is broadly relevant and has considerable implications for developing future therapies and their targeting.
The discovery of biocompatible or bioactive nanoparticles for medicinal applications is an expensive and time-consuming process that may be significantly facilitated by incorporating more rational ...approaches combining both experimental and computational methods. However, it is currently hindered by two limitations: (1) the lack of high-quality comprehensive data for computational modeling and (2) the lack of an effective modeling method for the complex nanomaterial structures. In this study, we tackled both issues by first synthesizing a large library of nanoparticles and obtained comprehensive data on their characterizations and bioactivities. Meanwhile, we virtually simulated each individual nanoparticle in this library by calculating their nanostructural characteristics and built models that correlate their nanostructure diversity to the corresponding biological activities. The resulting models were then used to predict and design nanoparticles with desired bioactivities. The experimental testing results of the designed nanoparticles were consistent with the model predictions. These findings demonstrate that rational design approaches combining high-quality nanoparticle libraries, big experimental data sets, and intelligent computational models can significantly reduce the efforts and costs of nanomaterial discovery.
Traditional experimental testing to identify endocrine disruptors that enhance estrogenic signaling relies on expensive and labor-intensive experiments. We sought to design a knowledge-based deep ...neural network (k-DNN) approach to reveal and organize public high-throughput screening data for compounds with nuclear estrogen receptor α and β (ERα and ERβ) binding potentials. The target activity was rodent uterotrophic bioactivity driven by ERα/ERβ activations. After training, the resultant network successfully inferred critical relationships among ERα/ERβ target bioassays, shown as weights of 6521 edges between 1071 neurons. The resultant network uses an adverse outcome pathway (AOP) framework to mimic the signaling pathway initiated by ERα and identify compounds that mimic endogenous estrogens (i.e., estrogen mimetics). The k-DNN can predict estrogen mimetics by activating neurons representing several events in the ERα/ERβ signaling pathway. Therefore, this virtual pathway model, starting from a compound’s chemistry initiating ERα activation and ending with rodent uterotrophic bioactivity, can efficiently and accurately prioritize new estrogen mimetics (AUC = 0.864–0.927). This k-DNN method is a potential universal computational toxicology strategy to utilize public high-throughput screening data to characterize hazards and prioritize potentially toxic compounds.
Many chemicals that disrupt endocrine function have been linked to a variety of adverse biological outcomes. However, screening for endocrine disruption using in vitro or in vivo approaches is costly ...and time-consuming. Computational methods, e.g., quantitative structure–activity relationship models, have become more reliable due to bigger training sets, increased computing power, and advanced machine learning algorithms, such as multilayered artificial neural networks. Machine learning models can be used to predict compounds for endocrine disrupting capabilities, such as binding to the estrogen receptor (ER), and allow for prioritization and further testing. In this work, an exhaustive comparison of multiple machine learning algorithms, chemical spaces, and evaluation metrics for ER binding was performed on public data sets curated using in-house cheminformatics software (Assay Central). Chemical features utilized in modeling consisted of binary fingerprints (ECFP6, FCFP6, ToxPrint, or MACCS keys) and continuous molecular descriptors from RDKit. Each feature set was subjected to classic machine learning algorithms (Bernoulli Naive Bayes, AdaBoost Decision Tree, Random Forest, Support Vector Machine) and Deep Neural Networks (DNN). Models were evaluated using a variety of metrics: recall, precision, F1-score, accuracy, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, Cohen’s Kappa, and Matthews correlation coefficient. For predicting compounds within the training set, DNN has an accuracy higher than that of other methods; however, in 5-fold cross validation and external test set predictions, DNN and most classic machine learning models perform similarly regardless of the data set or molecular descriptors used. We have also used the rank normalized scores as a performance-criteria for each machine learning method, and Random Forest performed best on the validation set when ranked by metric or by data sets. These results suggest classic machine learning algorithms may be sufficient to develop high quality predictive models of ER activity.
Traditional experimental approaches to evaluate hepatotoxicity are expensive and time-consuming. As an advanced framework of risk assessment, adverse outcome pathways (AOPs) describe the sequence of ...molecular and cellular events underlying chemical toxicities. We aimed to develop an AOP that can be used to predict hepatotoxicity by leveraging computational modeling and in vitro assays. We curated 869 compounds with known hepatotoxicity classifications as a modeling set and extracted assay data from PubChem. The antioxidant response element (ARE) assay, which quantifies transcriptional responses to oxidative stress, showed a high correlation to hepatotoxicity (PPV=0.82). Next, we developed quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) models to predict ARE activation for compounds lacking testing results. Potential toxicity alerts were identified and used to construct a mechanistic hepatotoxicity model. For experimental validation, 16 compounds in the modeling set and 12 new compounds were selected and tested using an in-house ARE-luciferase assay in HepG2-C8 cells. The mechanistic model showed good hepatotoxicity predictivity (accuracy = 0.82) for these compounds. Potential false positive hepatotoxicity predictions by only using ARE results can be corrected by incorporating structural alerts and vice versa. This mechanistic model illustrates a potential toxicity pathway for hepatotoxicity, and this strategy can be expanded to develop predictive models for other complex toxicities.
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•ARE assay was found to have high correlation to hepatotoxicity.•QSAR models were used to fill in missing data of ARE results for hepatotoxicity model development.•Structural alerts associated with hepatotoxicity were identified.•A hepatotoxicity predictive model was constructed by applying the AOP framework.•Experimental testing was performed to validate the hepatotoxicity model predictions.
Digitalizing complex nanostructures into data structures suitable for machine learning modeling without losing nanostructure information has been a major challenge. Deep learning frameworks, ...particularly convolutional neural networks (CNNs), are especially adept at handling multidimensional and complex inputs. In this study, CNNs were applied for the modeling of nanoparticle activities exclusively from nanostructures. The nanostructures were represented by virtual molecular projections, a multidimensional digitalization of nanostructures, and used as input data to train CNNs. To this end, 77 nanoparticles with various activities and/or physicochemical property results were used for modeling. The resulting CNN model predictions show high correlations with the experimental results. An analysis of a trained CNN quantitatively showed that neurons were able to recognize distinct nanostructure features critical to activities and physicochemical properties. This "end-to-end" deep learning approach is well suited to digitalize complex nanostructures for data-driven machine learning modeling and can be broadly applied to rationally design nanoparticles with desired activities.
Modern nanotechnology has generated numerous datasets from in vitro and in vivo studies on nanomaterials, with some available on nanoinformatics portals. However, these existing databases lack the ...digital data and tools suitable for machine learning studies. Here, we report a nanoinformatics platform that accurately annotates nanostructures into machine-readable data files and provides modeling toolkits. This platform, accessible to the public at https://vinas-toolbox.com/, has annotated nanostructures of 14 material types. The associated nanodescriptor data and assay test results are appropriate for modeling purposes. The modeling toolkits enable data standardization, data visualization, and machine learning model development to predict properties and bioactivities of new nanomaterials. Moreover, a library of virtual nanostructures with their predicted properties and bioactivities is available, directing the synthesis of new nanomaterials. This platform provides a data-driven computational modeling platform for the nanoscience community, significantly aiding in the development of safe and effective nanomaterials.
Low-cost, high-throughput in vitro bioassays have potential as alternatives to animal models for toxicity testing. However, incorporating in vitro bioassays into chemical toxicity evaluations such as ...read-across requires significant data curation and analysis based on knowledge of relevant toxicity mechanisms, lowering the enthusiasm of using the massive amount of unstructured public data.
We aimed to develop a computational method to automatically extract useful bioassay data from a public repository (i.e., PubChem) and assess its ability to predict animal toxicity using a novel bioprofile-based read-across approach.
A training database containing 7,385 compounds with diverse rat acute oral toxicity data was searched against PubChem to establish in vitro bioprofiles. Using a novel subspace clustering algorithm, bioassay groups that may inform on relevant toxicity mechanisms underlying acute oral toxicity were identified. These bioassays groups were used to predict animal acute oral toxicity using read-across through a cross-validation process. Finally, an external test set of over 600 new compounds was used to validate the resulting model predictivity.
Several bioassay clusters showed high predictivity for acute oral toxicity (positive prediction rates range from 62-100%) through cross-validation. After incorporating individual clusters into an ensemble model, chemical toxicants in the external test set were evaluated for putative acute toxicity (positive prediction rate equal to 76%). Additionally, chemical fragment -in vitro-in vivo relationships were identified to illustrate new animal toxicity mechanisms.
The in vitro bioassay data-driven profiling strategy developed in this study meets the urgent needs of computational toxicology in the current big data era and can be extended to develop predictive models for other complex toxicity end points. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP3614.
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