Summary Background Four previously published randomised clinical trials have shown that tamoxifen can reduce the risk of breast cancer in healthy women at increased risk of breast cancer in the first ...10 years of follow-up. We report the long-term follow-up of the IBIS-I trial, in which the participants and investigators remain largely masked to treatment allocation. Methods In the IBIS-I randomised controlled trial, premenopausal and postmenopausal women 35–70 years of age deemed to be at an increased risk of developing breast cancer were randomly assigned (1:1) to receive oral tamoxifen 20 mg daily or matching placebo for 5 years. Patients were randomly assigned to the two treatment groups by telephone or fax according to a block randomisation schedule (permuted block sizes of six or ten). Patients and investigators were masked to treatment assignment by use of central randomisation and coded drug supply. The primary endpoint was the occurrence of breast cancer (invasive breast cancer and ductal carcinoma in situ), analysed by intention to treat. Cox proportional hazard models were used to assess breast cancer occurrence and mortality. The trial is closed to recruitment and active treatment is completed, but long-term follow-up is ongoing. This trial is registered with controlledtrials.com , number ISRCTN91879928. Findings Between April 14, 1992, and March 30, 2001, 7154 eligible women recruited from genetics clinics and breast care clinics in eight countries were enrolled into the IBIS-I trial and were randomly allocated to the two treatment groups: 3579 to tamoxifen and 3575 to placebo. After a median follow up of 16·0 years (IQR 14·1–17·6), 601 breast cancers have been reported (251 7·0% in 3579 patients in the tamoxifen group vs 350 9·8% in 3575 women in the placebo group; hazard ratio HR 0·71 95% CI 0·60–0·83, p<0·0001). The risk of developing breast cancer was similar between years 0–10 (226 6·3% in 3575 women in the placebo group vs 163 4·6% in 3579 women in the tamoxifen group; hazard ratio HR 0·72 95% CI 0·59–0·88, p=0·001) and after 10 years (124 3·8% in 3295 women vs 88 2·6% in 3343, respectively; HR 0·69 0·53–0·91, p=0·009). The greatest reduction in risk was seen in invasive oestrogen receptor-positive breast cancer (HR 0·66 95% CI 0·54–0·81, p<0·0001) and ductal carcinoma in situ (0·65 0·43–1·00, p=0·05), but no effect was noted for invasive oestrogen receptor-negative breast cancer (HR 1·05 95% CI 0·71–1·57, p=0·8). Interpretation These results show that tamoxifen offers a very long period of protection after treatment cessation, and thus substantially improves the benefit-to-harm ratio of the drug for breast cancer prevention. Funding Cancer Research UK (UK) and the National Health and Medical Research Council (Australia).
Summary Background The Arimidex, Tamoxifen, Alone or in Combination (ATAC) trial was designed to compare the efficacy and safety of anastrozole (1 mg) with tamoxifen (20 mg), both given orally every ...day for 5 years, as adjuvant treatment for postmenopausal women with early-stage breast cancer. In this analysis, we assess the long-term outcomes after a median follow-up of 120 months. Methods We used a proportional hazards model to assess the primary endpoint of disease-free survival, and the secondary endpoints of time to recurrence, time to distant recurrence, incidence of new contralateral breast cancer, overall survival, and death with or without recurrence in all randomised patients (anastrozole n=3125, tamoxifen n=3116) and hormone-receptor-positive patients (anastrozole n=2618, tamoxifen n=2598). After treatment completion, we continued to collect data on fractures and serious adverse events in a masked fashion (safety population: anastrozole n=3092, tamoxifen n=3094). This study is registered as an International Standard Randomised Controlled Trial , number ISRCTN18233230. Findings Patients were followed up for a median of 120 months (range 0–145); there were 24 522 woman-years of follow-up in the anastrozole group and 23 950 woman-years in the tamoxifen group. In the full study population, there were significant improvements in the anastrozole group compared with the tamoxifen group for disease-free survival (hazard ratio HR 0·91, 95% CI 0·83–0·99; p=0·04), time to recurrence (0·84, 0·75–0·93; p=0·001), and time to distant recurrence (0·87, 0·77–0·99; p=0·03). For hormone-receptor-positive patients, the results were also significantly in favour of the anastrozole group for disease-free survival (HR 0·86, 95% CI 0·78–0·95; p=0·003), time to recurrence (0·79, 0·70–0·89; p=0·0002), and time to distant recurrence (0·85, 0·73–0·98; p=0·02). In hormone-receptor-positive patients, absolute differences in time to recurrence between anastrozole and tamoxifen increased over time (2·7% at 5 years and 4·3% at 10 years) and recurrence rates remained significantly lower on anastrozole than tamoxifen after treatment completion (HR 0·81, 95% CI 0·67–0·98; p=0·03), although the carryover benefit was smaller after 8 years. There was weak evidence of fewer deaths after recurrence with anastrozole compared with tamoxifen treatment in the hormone-receptor-positive subgroup (HR 0·87, 95% CI 0·74–1·02; p=0·09), but there was little difference in overall mortality (0·95, 95% CI 0·84–1·06; p=0·4). Fractures were more frequent during active treatment in patients receiving anastrozole than those receiving tamoxifen (451 vs 351; OR 1·33, 95% CI 1·15–1·55; p<0·0001), but were similar in the post-treatment follow-up period (110 vs 112; OR 0·98, 95% CI 0·74–1·30; p=0·9). Treatment-related serious adverse events were less common in the anastrozole group than the tamoxifen group (223 anastrozole vs 369 tamoxifen; OR 0·57, 95% CI 0·48–0·69; p<0·0001), but were similar after treatment completion (66 vs 78; OR 0·84, 95% CI 0·60–1·19; p=0·3). No differences in non-breast cancer causes of death were apparent and the incidence of other cancers was similar between groups (425 vs 431) and continue to be higher with anastrozole for colorectal (66 vs 44) and lung cancer (51 vs 34), and lower for endometrial cancer (six vs 24), melanoma (eight vs 19), and ovarian cancer (17 vs 28). No new safety concerns were reported. Interpretation These data confirm the long-term superior efficacy and safety of anastrozole over tamoxifen as initial adjuvant therapy for postmenopausal women with hormone-sensitive early breast cancer. Funding AstraZeneca.
Postmenopausal women with early breast cancer are at an ongoing risk of relapse, even after successful surgery and treatment of the primary tumor. The treatment of breast cancer has changed in the ...past few years because of the discovery of prognostic and predictive biomarkers that allow individualized breast cancer treatment. However, it is still not clear how to identify women that are at high risk of a late recurrence. Clinical parameters are good prognostic markers for early recurrence, but only nodal status and, to a lesser extent, tumor size have proven to be strong prognostic markers for late recurrence. Multi-gene signatures have become widely used for the prediction of overall recurrence risk and tailoring administration of adjuvant chemotherapy, but only a few have been shown to be prognostic for late (distant) relapse. There is a need to accurately identify women who may benefit from extended endocrine therapy but also those who may be spared any additional treatment. Recent results from large clinical trials have shown that the research is going in the right direction, and these results might help to optimize extended endocrine therapy for patients with early breast cancer. However, further research is needed to select individual biomarkers or multi-gene signatures that offer identification of late recurrence specifically and thus justify routine use of these tests in the clinical setting.
Despite increasing evidence supporting the clinical utility of immune infiltration in the estrogen receptor-negative (ER-) subtype, the prognostic value of immune infiltration for ER+ disease is not ...well defined.
Quantitative immune scores of cell abundance and spatial heterogeneity were computed using a fully automated hematoxylin and eosin-stained image analysis algorithm and spatial statistics for 1178 postmenopausal patients with ER+ breast cancer treated with five years' tamoxifen or anastrozole. The prognostic significance of immune scores was compared with Oncotype DX 21-gene recurrence score (RS), PAM50 risk of recurrence (ROR) score, IHC4, and clinical treatment score, available for 963 patients. Statistical tests were two-sided.
Scores of immune cell abundance were not associated with recurrence-free survival. In contrast, high immune spatial scores indicating increased cell spatial clustering were associated with poor 10-year, early (0-5 years), and late (5-10 years) recurrence-free survival (Immune Hotspot: LR-χ2 = 14.06, P < .001, for 0-10 years; LR-χ2 = 6.24, P = .01, for 0-5 years; LR-χ2 = 7.89, P = .005, for 5-10 years). The prognostic value of spatial scores for late recurrence was similar to that of IHC4 and RS in both populations, but was not as strong as other tests in comparison for recurrence across 10 years.
These results provide a missing link between tumor immunity and disease outcome in ER+ disease by examining tumor spatial architecture. The association between spatial scores and late recurrence suggests a lasting memory of protumor immunity that may impact disease progression and evolution of endocrine treatment resistance, which may be exploited for therapeutic advances.
Purpose
Clinical Treatment Score at 5 years (CTS5) is a prognostic tool to estimate distant recurrence (DR) risk after 5 years of endocrine therapy for postmenopausal women with oestrogen ...receptor-positive (ER-positive) breast cancer.
Methods
The validity of CTS5 was tested in a retrospective cohort of patients diagnosed with early ER-positive breast cancer. The primary endpoint was DR in years 5–10. The primary analysis cohort consisted of postmenopausal women, with premenopausal women as a secondary analysis cohort. Cox regression models were used to determine the prognostic value of CTS5 and Kaplan–Meier curves were used with associated 10-year DR risks (%).
Results
2428 women were included with a median follow-up of 13.4 years. The CTS5 was significantly prognostic in both postmenopausal (
N
= 1662, HR = 2.18 95% CI (1.78–2.67)) and premenopausal women (
N
= 766, HR = 1.84 95% CI (1.32–2.56)). The 10-year DR risks were 2.9% (1.9–4.5), 7.2% (5.3–9.9), and 12.9% (10.0–16.7) for low, intermediate and high risk in postmenopausal women and 3.8% (2.2–6.7), 6.9% (4.4–10.8), and 11.1% (7.4–16.5) in premenopausal women, respectively. The number of observed DRs was significantly greater than expected in those predicted to be at high risk by CTS5 but this discordance was lost when those receiving more than 60 months of endocrine therapy were excluded.
Conclusions
The CTS5 demonstrated clinical validity for predicting late DR within a large cohort of unselected postmenopausal patients but less so in premenopausal patients. Calibration of the CTS5 was good in patients who did not receive extended endocrine therapy. The CTS5 low-risk cohort has risk of DR so low as to not warrant extended endocrine therapy.
Risk of distant recurrence (DR) among women with estrogen receptor (ER) -positive early breast cancer is the major determinant of recommendations for or against chemotherapy. It is frequently ...estimated using the Oncotype DX recurrence score (RS). The PAM50 risk of recurrence (ROR) score provides an alternative approach, which also identifies intrinsic subtypes.
mRNA from 1,017 patients with ER-positive primary breast cancer treated with anastrozole or tamoxifen in the ATAC trial was assessed for ROR using the NanoString nCounter. Likelihood ratio (LR) tests and concordance indices (c indices) were used to assess the prognostic information provided beyond that of a clinical treatment score (CTS) by RS, ROR, or IHC4, an index of DR risk derived from immunohistochemical assessment of ER, progesterone receptor, human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2), and Ki67.
ROR added significant prognostic information beyond CTS in all patients (Δ LR-χ(2) = 33.9; P < .001) and in all four subgroups: node negative, node positive, HER2 negative, and HER2 negative/node negative; more information was added by ROR than by RS. C indices in the HER2-negative/node-negative subgroup were 0.73, 0.76, and 0.78 for CTS, CTS plus RS, and CTS plus ROR, respectively. More patients were scored as high risk and fewer as intermediate risk by ROR than by RS. Relatively similar prognostic information was added by ROR and IHC4 in all patients but more by ROR in the HER2-negative/node-negative group.
ROR provides more prognostic information in endocrine-treated patients with ER-positive, node-negative disease than RS, with better differentiation of intermediate- and higher-risk groups.
During metaphase, forces on kinetochores are exerted by k-fibres, bundles of microtubules that end at the kinetochore. Interestingly, non-kinetochore microtubules have been observed between sister ...kinetochores, but their function is unknown. Here we show by laser-cutting of a k-fibre in HeLa and PtK1 cells that a bundle of non-kinetochore microtubules, which we term 'bridging fibre', bridges sister k-fibres and balances the interkinetochore tension. We found PRC1 and EB3 in the bridging fibre, suggesting that it consists of antiparallel dynamic microtubules. By using a theoretical model that includes a bridging fibre, we show that the forces at the pole and at the kinetochore depend on the bridging fibre thickness. Moreover, our theory and experiments show larger relaxation of the interkinetochore distance for cuts closer to kinetochores. We conclude that the bridging fibre, by linking sister k-fibres, withstands the tension between sister kinetochores and enables the spindle to obtain a curved shape.
Summary Background Aromatase inhibitors effectively prevent breast cancer recurrence and development of new contralateral tumours in postmenopausal women. We assessed the efficacy and safety of the ...aromatase inhibitor anastrozole for prevention of breast cancer in postmenopausal women who are at high risk of the disease. Methods Between Feb 2, 2003, and Jan 31, 2012, we recruited postmenopausal women aged 40–70 years from 18 countries into an international, double-blind, randomised placebo-controlled trial. To be eligible, women had to be at increased risk of breast cancer (judged on the basis of specific criteria). Eligible women were randomly assigned (1:1) by central computer allocation to receive 1 mg oral anastrozole or matching placebo every day for 5 years. Randomisation was stratified by country and was done with blocks (size six, eight, or ten). All trial personnel, participants, and clinicians were masked to treatment allocation; only the trial statistician was unmasked. The primary endpoint was histologically confirmed breast cancer (invasive cancers or non-invasive ductal carcinoma in situ). Analyses were done by intention to treat. This trial is registered, number ISRCTN31488319. Findings 1920 women were randomly assigned to receive anastrozole and 1944 to placebo. After a median follow-up of 5·0 years (IQR 3·0–7·1), 40 women in the anastrozole group (2%) and 85 in the placebo group (4%) had developed breast cancer (hazard ratio 0·47, 95% CI 0·32–0·68, p<0·0001). The predicted cumulative incidence of all breast cancers after 7 years was 5·6% in the placebo group and 2·8% in the anastrozole group. 18 deaths were reported in the anastrozole group and 17 in the placebo group, and no specific causes were more common in one group than the other (p=0·836). Interpretation Anastrozole effectively reduces incidence of breast cancer in high-risk postmenopausal women. This finding, along with the fact that most of the side-effects associated with oestrogen deprivation were not attributable to treatment, provides support for the use of anastrozole in postmenopausal women at high risk of breast cancer. Funding Cancer Research UK, the National Health and Medical Research Council Australia, Sanofi-Aventis, and AstraZeneca.
Summary Background When the mechanism of action behind treatment toxicity reflects the intended effect on the treatment target, the toxicity might be a useful marker for efficacy. During endocrine ...treatment of breast cancer, the occurrence of symptoms related to oestrogen depletion or oestrogen blockade might thus be a predictor of treatment effectiveness. In this retrospective analysis, the relation between the reported incidence of vasomotor or joint symptoms and breast cancer recurrence in the Arimidex, Tamoxifen, Alone or in Combination (ATAC) trial is assessed. Methods Women with hormone-receptor-positive tumours who reported vasomotor or joint symptoms at the first follow-up visit (3 months) in the ATAC trial, (which assessed tamoxifen or anastrozole for adjuvant treatment of postmenopausal breast cancer), were compared with women without these symptoms to see if there was a relation between these symptoms and subsequent recurrence. The ATAC trial is registered as an International Standard Randomised Controlled Trial, number ISRCTN18233230. Findings 1486 of 3964 (37·5%) eligible women reported newly emergent vasomotor symptoms at the 3-month follow-up visit and had lower subsequent recurrence than those who did not report these symptoms (223 during 10 752 women-years of follow-up vs 366 during 11 573 woman-years of follow-up, respectively; hazard ratio HR 0·84 95% CI 0·71–1·00, p=0·04; adjusted for age, body-mass index, previous hormone-replacement therapy, nodal status, tumour size, and tumour grade). A greater decrease in breast-cancer recurrence was seen for the 1245 of 3964 (31·4%) eligible women who reported new joint symptoms at the 3-month follow-up visit compared with those not reporting these symptoms (158 during 9242 women-years of follow-up vs 366 during 11 573 women-years of follow-up; adjusted HR 0·60 0·50–0·72, p<0·0001). Interpretation The appearance of new vasomotor symptoms or joint symptoms within the first 3 months of treatment is a useful biomarker, suggesting a greater response to endocrine treatment compared with women without these symptoms. Awareness of the relation between early treatment-emergent symptoms and beneficial response to therapy might be useful when reassuring patients who present with them, and might help to improve long-term treatment adherence when symptoms cannot be alleviated effectively. Funding Cancer Research UK and AstraZeneca.
Adjuvant endocrine therapy beyond 5 years reduces recurrence in patients with estrogen receptor-positive breast cancer. We have previously shown that immunohistochemical markers (IHC4) and two gene ...expression profile tests (recurrence score RS and PAM50 risk of recurrence ROR) are associated with time to distant recurrence, and we have now assessed the value of each of these scores and routine clinical variables for predicting outcome, specifically in years 5 to 10.
We used univariate and multivariable proportional hazards models to determine the prognostic value of all variables and scores (IHC4, RS, ROR) for distant recurrence, separately in years 0 to 5 and specifically for years 5 to 10 for all patients. All statistical tests were two-sided.
Nodal status and tumor size were at least as strong in years 5 to 10 as in years 0 to 5 (nodal status, years 5-10: χ² = 21.72 vs years 0-5: χ² = 11.08, both P < .001; tumor size, years 5-10: χ² = 10.52 vs years 0-5: χ² = 10.82, both P = .001). Ki67 and the overall IHC4 score were the only statistically significant biomarkers related to distant recurrence univariablely in the 5 to 10 year period (χ² = 8.67, χ² = 13.22, respectively). The ROR score was the strongest molecular prognostic factor in the late follow-up period (χ² = 16.29; P < .001), whereas IHC4 (χ² = 7.41) and RS (χ² = 5.55) were only weakly prognostic in this period. Similar results were seen for all subgroups and for all recurrences.
None of the IHC4 markers provided statistically significant prognostic information in years 5 to 10, except for nodal status and tumor size. ROR gave the strongest prognostic information in years 5 to 10. These results may help select patients who could benefit most from hormonal therapy beyond 5 years of treatment.
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