Past deglacial ice sheet reconstructions have generally relied upon discipline-specific constraints with no attention given to the determination of objective confidence intervals. Reconstructions ...based on geophysical inversion of relative sea level (RSL) data have the advantage of large sets of proxy data but lack ice-mechanical constraints. Conversely, reconstructions based on dynamical ice sheet models are glaciologically self-consistent, but depend on poorly constrained climate forcings and sub-glacial processes.
As an example of a much better constrained methodology that computes explicit error bars, we present a distribution of high-resolution glaciologically-self-consistent deglacial histories for the North American ice complex calibrated against a large set of RSL, marine limit, and geodetic data. The history is derived from ensemble-based analyses using the 3D MUN glacial systems model and a high-resolution ice-margin chronology derived from geological and geomorphological observations. Isostatic response is computed with the VM5a viscosity structure. Bayesian calibration of the model is carried out using Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods in combination with artificial neural networks trained to the model results. The calibration provides a posterior distribution for model parameters (and thereby modeled glacial histories) given the observational data sets that takes data uncertainty into account. Final ensemble results also account for fits between computed and observed strandlines and marine limits.
Given the model (including choice of calibration parameters), input and constraint data sets, and VM5a earth rheology, we find the North American contribution to mwp1a was likely between 9.4 and 13.2m eustatic over a 500year interval. This is more than half of the total 16 to 26m meltwater pulse over 500 to 700years (with lower values being more probable) indicated by the Barbados coral record (Fairbanks, 1989; Peltier and Fairbanks, 2006) if one assumes a 5meter living range for the Acropora Palmata coral. 20ka ice volume for North America was likely 70.1±2.0m eustatic, or about 60% of the total contribution to eustatic sea level change. We suspect that the potentially most critical unquantified uncertainties in our analyses are those related to model structure (especially climate forcing), deglacial ice margin chronology, and earth rheology.
► New data-calibrated glaciological reconstruction of last North American deglaciation. ► Bayesian calibration of glaciological model against large and diverse set of data. ► Detailed uncertainty estimates are computed. ► Calibrated North American contribution to meltwater pulse 1a is 9.4 to 13.2m. ► Calibrated North American 20ka ice volume is 68.1 to 72.1m eustatic equivalent.
We present the official land uplift model NKG2016LU of the Nordic Commission of Geodesy (NKG) for northern Europe. The model was released in 2016 and covers an area from 49° to 75° latitude and 0° to ...50° longitude. It shows a maximum absolute uplift of 10.3 mm/a near the city of Umeå in northern Sweden and a zero-line that follows the shores of Germany and Poland. The model replaces the NKG2005LU model from 2005. Since then, we have collected more data in the core areas of NKG2005LU, specifically in Norway, Sweden, Denmark and Finland, and included observations from the Baltic countries as well. Additionally, we have derived an underlying geophysical glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) model within NKG as an integrated part of the NKG2016LU project. A major challenge is to estimate a realistic uncertainty grid for the model. We show how the errors in the observations and the underlying GIA model propagate through the calculations to the final uplift model. We find a standard error better than 0.25 mm/a for most of the area covered by precise levelling or uplift rates from Continuously Operating Reference Stations and up to 0.7 mm/a outside this area. As a check, we show that two different methods give approximately the same uncertainty estimates. We also estimate changes in the geoid and derive an alternative uplift model referring to this rising geoid. Using this latter model, the maximum uplift in Umeå reduces from 10.3 to 9.6 mm/a and with a similar reduction ratio elsewhere. When we compare this new NKG2016LU with the former NKG2005LU, we find the largest differences where the GIA model has the strongest influence, i.e. outside the area of geodetic observation. Here, the new model gives from − 3 to 4 mm/a larger values. Within the observation area, similar differences reach − 1.5 mm/a at the northernmost part of Norway and − 1.0 mm/a at the north-western coast of Denmark, but generally within the range of − 0.5 to 0.5 mm/a.
The North American Ice Sheet Complex played a major role in global sea level fluctuations during the Late Quaternary but our knowledge of its dynamics is based mostly on its demise from the Last ...Glacial Maximum (LGM), a period characterised by non-linear behaviour in the form of punctuated ice margin recession, episodic ice streaming and major shifts in the location of ice divides. In comparison, knowledge of the pre-LGM ice complex is poorly constrained, largely because of the fragmentary nature of the evidence relating to ice sheet build-up. In this paper, we explore the inception and growth of ice (120–20 ka) using a glacial systems model which has been calibrated against a large and diverse set of data relating to the deglacial interval. We make use of calibration data prior to the LGM but its scarcity introduces greater uncertainty, which is partly alleviated by our large ensemble analysis. Results suggest that, following the last interglaciation (Oxygen Isotope Stage: OIS 5e), the ice complex initiated over the north-eastern Canadian Arctic and in the Cordillera within a few thousand years. It then underwent rapid growth to an OIS 5 maximum at ∼110 ka (5d) and covered ∼70% of the area occupied by the LGM ice cover (although only 30% by volume). An OIS 5 minimum is modelled at ∼80 ka (5a), before a second phase of rapid growth at the start of OIS 4, which culminated in a large ice complex at ∼65 ka (almost as large as at the LGM). Subsequent deglaciation was rapid (maximum modelled sea level contribution of >16 cm per century) and resulted in an OIS 3 minimum between ca 55–60 ka. Thereafter, the ice complex grew towards its LGM configuration, interrupted by several phases of successively less significant mass loss. Our results support and extend previous inferences based on geological evidence and reinforce the notion of a highly dynamic pre-LGM ice complex (e.g. with episodes of ±10 s m of eustatic sea level equivalent in <5 ka). Consistent with previous modelling, the fraction of warm-based ice increases towards the LGM from <20 to >50%, but even the thin OIS 5 ice sheets exhibit fast flow features (several 1000 m a−1) in major topographic troughs. Notwithstanding the severe limitations imposed by the use of the ‘shallow-ice approximation’, we note that most fast flow-features generated prior to the LGM correspond to the location of ‘known’ ice streams during deglaciation, i.e. in major topographic troughs and over soft sediments at the southern and western margins. Moreover, the modelled flux of these ‘ice streams’ (sensu lato), appears to be non-linearly scaled to ice sheet volume, i.e. there is no evidence that decay phases were associated with significantly increased ice stream activity. This hypothesis requires testing using a model with higher-order physics and future modelling would also benefit from additional pre-LGM constraints (e.g. dated ice free/margin positions) to help reduce and quantify uncertainties.
► We present numerical modelling of the North American Ice Sheet from 120 to 20 ka. ► Early inception in the north-eastern Canadian Arctic from ca 118 ka. ► Rapid growth to a large but thin OIS 5d ice sheet at 110 ka, followed by shrinkage. ► Rapid growth and decay of major OIS 4 ice sheet, almost as large as LGM ice. ► Find a scaling between overall ice stream flux and ice volume from 120 to 20 ka.
The Younger Dryas (YD) cold reversal interrupts the warming climate of the deglaciation with global climatic impacts. The sudden cooling is typically linked to an abrupt slowdown of the Atlantic ...Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) in response to meltwater discharges from ice sheets. However, inconsistencies regarding the YD-response of European summer temperatures have cast doubt whether the concept provides a sufficient explanation. Here we present results from a high-resolution global climate simulation together with a new July temperature compilation based on plant indicator species and show that European summers remain warm during the YD. Our climate simulation provides robust physical evidence that atmospheric blocking of cold westerly winds over Fennoscandia is a key mechanism counteracting the cooling impact of an AMOC-slowdown during summer. Despite the persistence of short warm summers, the YD is dominated by a shift to a continental climate with extreme winter to spring cooling and short growing seasons.
We infer the GIA signal and its uncertainty along the central Pacific coast of North America using 680 sea-level index points and over 20,000 model runs sampling >700 (1-D) Earth viscosity models and ...29 ice sheet reconstructions. Due to the large spatial extent and different tectonic settings of the study area, we divided it into three sub-regions (northern, central and southern) for which model parameters were inferred separately. Also, given that this region is tectonically active, the influence of this process (as well as sediment isostatic adjustment) was accounted for where possible by removing it from the data using published estimates. Our results indicate that it is not possible to produce an acceptable to for all of the RSL data with a single set of model parameters, suggesting significant lateral variability in viscous structure. Specifically, low viscosities (1019–1020 Pas) are inferred in the upper mantle within the northern region (southwestern British Columbia and northwest Washington) compared to those inferred (2–5 × 1020 Pas) for the central and southern regions (extending from southern Washington to southern California). High quality model fits were obtained for all data except those from the northern region where no single parameter set was able to capture both the rapid and large RSL fall during the late glacial and the monotonic rise during the mid-to-late Holocene at all localities. This suggests the need for an Earth model that incorporates departures from a linear Maxwell rheology (as applied here) and/or lateral variations in viscosity structure. Using our optimal model parameter sets, we show that GIA is a significant contributor to both contemporary vertical land motion and relative sea level change in our study region and so should be considered when interpreting observations of these signals and for making future relative sea level projections. Model output of present-day vertical land motion at 483 GPS stations and sea-level change at 56 tide gauge stations is provided (with estimated uncertainty) so that these data can be used to study non-GIA processes more accurately.
•GIA signal and it's uncertainty are constrained along the Pacific coast of North America.•Inferred strong lateral variations in viscosity indicate the need for a 3-D Earth model.•GIA is a significant contributor to present-day crustal motion and sea-level change.
We present a revised and extended high Arctic air temperature reconstruction from a single proxy that spans the past ∼12,000 y (up to 2009 CE). Our reconstruction from the Agassiz ice cap (Ellesmere ...Island, Canada) indicates an earlier and warmer Holocene thermal maximum with early Holocene temperatures that are 4–5 °C warmer compared with a previous reconstruction, and regularly exceed contemporary values for a period of ∼3,000 y. Our results show that air temperatures in this region are now at their warmest in the past 6,800–7,800 y, and that the recent rate of temperature change is unprecedented over the entire Holocene. The warmer early Holocene inferred from the Agassiz ice core leads to an estimated ∼1 km of ice thinning in northwest Greenland during the early Holocene using the Camp Century ice core. Ice modeling results show that this large thinning is consistent with our air temperature reconstruction. The modeling results also demonstrate the broader significance of the enhanced warming, with a retreat of the northern ice margin behind its present position in the mid Holocene and a ∼25% increase in total Greenland ice sheet mass loss (∼1.4 m sea-level equivalent) during the last deglaciation, both of which have implications for interpreting geodetic measurements of land uplift and gravity changes in northern Greenland.
An ice sheet model was constrained to reconstruct the evolution of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) from the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) to present to improve our understanding of its response to ...climate change. The study involved applying a glaciological model in series with a glacial isostatic adjustment and relative sea-level (RSL) model. The model reconstruction builds upon the work of Simpson et al. (2009) through four main extensions: (1) a larger constraint database consisting of RSL and ice extent data; model improvements to the (2) climate and (3) sea-level forcing components; (4) accounting for uncertainties in non-Greenland ice. The research was conducted primarily to address data-model misfits and to quantify inherent model uncertainties with the Earth structure and non-Greenland ice. Our new model (termed Huy3) fits the majority of observations and is characterised by a number of defining features. During the LGM, the ice sheet had an excess of 4.7 m ice-equivalent sea-level (IESL), which reached a maximum volume of 5.1 m IESL at 16.5 cal ka BP. Modelled retreat of ice from the continental shelf progressed at different rates and timings in different sectors. Southwest and Southeast Greenland began to retreat from the continental shelf by ∼16 to 14 cal ka BP, thus responding in part to the Bølling-Allerød warm event (c. 14.5 cal ka BP); subsequently ice at the southern tip of Greenland readvanced during the Younger Dryas cold event. In northern Greenland the ice retreated rapidly from the continental shelf upon the climatic recovery out of the Younger Dryas to present-day conditions. Upon entering the Holocene (11.7 cal ka BP), the ice sheet soon became land-based. During the Holocene Thermal Maximum (HTM; 9-5 cal ka BP), air temperatures across Greenland were marginally higher than those at present and the GrIS margin retreated inland of its present-day southwest position by 40–60 km at 4 cal ka BP which produced a deficit volume of 0.16 m IESL relative to present. In response to the HTM warmth, our optimal model reconstruction lost mass at a maximum centennial rate of c. 103.4 Gt/yr. Our results suggest that remaining data-model discrepancies are affiliated with missing physics and sub-grid processes of the glaciological model, uncertainties in the climate forcing, lateral Earth structure, and non-Greenland ice (particularly the North American component). Finally, applying the Huy3 Greenland reconstruction with our optimal Earth model we generate present-day uplift rates across Greenland due to past changes in the ocean and ice loads with explicit error bars due to uncertainties in the Earth structure. Present-day uplift rates due to past changes are spatially variable and range from 3.5 to −7 mm/a (including Earth model uncertainty).
•We build on the Simpson et al. (2009) study and model the Greenland Deglaciation.•A constraint dataset of RSL, ice extent, and ice-core observations is established.•We data-constrain a glaciological model and GIA model of RSL change.•We identify a best fitting Greenland reconstruction with respect to the observations.•We quantify the impact of NAIC uncertainties on the Greenland chronology.
This paper is the first of a series of four GMD (Geoscientific Model Development) papers on the PMIP4-CMIP6 (Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project - Phase 4 -- Coupled Model Intercomparison ...Project - Phase 6) experiments. Part 2 (Otto-Bliesner et al., 2017) gives details about the two PMIP4-CMIP6 interglacial experiments, Part 3 (Jungclaus et al., 2017) about the last millennium experiment, and Part 4 (Kageyama et al., 2017) about the Last Glacial Maximum experiment. The mid-Pliocene Warm Period experiment is part of the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP) - Phase 2, detailed in Haywood et al. (2016). The goal of the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP) is to understand the response of the climate system to different climate forcings for documented climatic states very different from the present and historical climates. Through comparison with observations of the environmental impact of these climate changes, or with climate reconstructions based on physical, chemical, or biological records, PMIP also addresses the issue of how well state-of-the-art numerical models simulate climate change. Climate models are usually developed using the present and historical climates as references, but climate projections show that future climates will lie well outside these conditions. Palaeoclimates very different from these reference states therefore provide stringent tests for state-of-the-art models and a way to assess whether their sensitivity to forcings is compatible with palaeoclimatic evidence. Simulations of five different periods have been designed to address the objectives of the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6): the millennium prior to the industrial epoch (CMIP6 name: past1000); the mid-Holocene, 6000 years ago (midHolocene); the Last Glacial Maximum, 21,000 years ago (lgm); the Last Interglacial, 127,000 years ago (lig127k); and the mid-Pliocene Warm Period, 3.2 million years ago (midPliocene-eoi400). These climatic periods are well documented by palaeoclimatic and palaeoenvironmental records, with climate and environmental changes relevant for the study and projection of future climate changes. This paper describes the motivation for the choice of these periods and the design of the numerical experiments and database requests, with a focus on their novel features compared to the experiments performed in previous phases of PMIP and CMIP. It also outlines the analysis plan that takes advantage of the comparisons of the results across periods and across CMIP6 in collaboration with other MIPs.
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