Space weather phenomena have been studied in detail in the peer‐reviewed scientific literature. However, there has arguably been scant analysis of the potential socioeconomic impacts of space ...weather, despite a growing gray literature from different national studies, of varying degrees of methodological rigor. In this analysis, we therefore provide a general framework for assessing the potential socioeconomic impacts of critical infrastructure failure resulting from geomagnetic disturbances, applying it to the British high‐voltage electricity transmission network. Socioeconomic analysis of this threat has hitherto failed to address the general geophysical risk, asset vulnerability, and the network structure of critical infrastructure systems. We overcome this by using a three‐part method that includes (i) estimating the probability of intense magnetospheric substorms, (ii) exploring the vulnerability of electricity transmission assets to geomagnetically induced currents, and (iii) testing the socioeconomic impacts under different levels of space weather forecasting. This has required a multidisciplinary approach, providing a step toward the standardization of space weather risk assessment. We find that for a Carrington‐sized 1‐in‐100‐year event with no space weather forecasting capability, the gross domestic product loss to the United Kingdom could be as high as £15.9 billion, with this figure dropping to £2.9 billion based on current forecasting capability. However, with existing satellites nearing the end of their life, current forecasting capability will decrease in coming years. Therefore, if no further investment takes place, critical infrastructure will become more vulnerable to space weather. Additional investment could provide enhanced forecasting, reducing the economic loss for a Carrington‐sized 1‐in‐100‐year event to £0.9 billion.
We present a new quasi-stellar object (QSO) selection algorithm using a Support Vector Machine, a supervised classification method, on a set of extracted time series features including period, ...amplitude, color, and autocorrelation value. We train a model that separates QSOs from variable stars, non-variable stars, and microlensing events using 58 known QSOs, 1629 variable stars, and 4288 non-variables in the MAssive Compact Halo Object (MACHO) database as a training set. To estimate the efficiency and the accuracy of the model, we perform a cross-validation test using the training set. The test shows that the model correctly identifies ~80% of known QSOs with a 25% false-positive rate. The majority of the false positives are Be stars. We applied the trained model to the MACHO Large Magellanic Cloud (LMC) data set, which consists of 40 million light curves, and found 1620 QSO candidates. During the selection none of the 33,242 known MACHO variables were misclassified as QSO candidates. In order to estimate the true false-positive rate, we crossmatched the candidates with astronomical catalogs including the Spitzer Surveying the Agents of a Galaxy's Evolution LMC catalog and a few X-ray catalogs. The results further suggest that the majority of the candidates, more than 70%, are QSOs.
Several lines of argument support the existence of a link between activity at the nuclei of galaxies, in the form of an accreting supermassive black hole, and star formation activity in these ...galaxies. Radio jets have long been argued to be an ideal mechanism that allows active galactic nuclei (AGNs) to interact with their host galaxies and affect star formation. We use a sample of radio sources in the North Ecliptic Pole (NEP) field to study the nature of this putative link, by means of spectral energy distribution (SED) fitting. We employ the excellent spectral coverage of the AKARI infrared space telescope and the rich ancillary data available in the NEP to build SEDs extending from UV to far-IR wavelengths. We find a significant AGN component in our sample of relatively faint radio sources (<mJy). A positive correlation is found between the luminosity of the AGN component and that of star formation in the host galaxy, independent of the radio luminosity. In contrast, for narrow redshift and AGN luminosity ranges, we find that increasing radio luminosity leads to a decrease in the specific star formation rate. The most radio-loud AGNs are found to lie on the main sequence of star formation for their respective redshifts. For the first time, we potentially see such a two-sided feedback process in the same sample. We discuss the possible suppression of star formation, but not total quenching, in systems with strong radio jets, that supports the maintenance nature of feedback from radio AGN jets.
From optical spectroscopy of X-ray sources observed as part of the Chandra Multi-wavelength Project (ChaMP), we present redshifts and classifications for a total of 1569 Chandra sources from our ...targeted spectroscopic follow-up using the FLWO/1.5 m, SAAO/1.9 m, WIYN 3.5 m, CTIO/4 m, KPNO/4 m, Magellan/6.5 m, MMT/6.5 m, and Gemini/8 m telescopes, and from archival Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) spectroscopy. We classify the optical counterparts as 50% broad-line active galactic nuclei (AGNs), 16% emission line galaxies, 14% absorption line galaxies, and 20% stars. We detect QSOs out to z ~ 5.5 and galaxies out to z ~ 3. We have compiled extensive photometry, including X-ray (ChaMP), ultraviolet (GALEX), optical (SDSS and ChaMP-NOAO/MOSAIC follow-up), near-infrared (UKIDSS, Two Micron All Sky Survey, and ChaMP-CTIO/ISPI follow-up), mid-infrared (WISE), and radio (FIRST and NVSS) bands. Together with our spectroscopic information, this enables us to derive detailed spectral energy distributions (SEDs) for our extragalactic sources. We fit a variety of template SEDs to determine bolometric luminosities, and to constrain AGNs and starburst components where both are present. While ~58% of X-ray Seyferts (10 super(42)ergs super(-1) < L sub(2-10keV) <10 super(44) erg s super(-1)) require a starburst event (>5% starburst contribution to bolometric luminosity) to fit observed photometry only 26% of the X-ray QSO (L sub(2-10 keV) > 10 super(44) erg s super(-1)) population appear to have some kind of star formation contribution. This is significantly lower than for the Seyferts, especially if we take into account torus contamination at z > 1 where the majority of our X-ray QSOs lie. In addition, we observe a rapid drop of the percentage of starburst contribution as X-ray luminosity increases. JTiis is consistent with the quenching of star formation by powerful QSOs, as predicted by the merger model, or with a time lag between the peak of star formation and QSO activity. We have tested the hypothesis that there should be a strong connection between X-ray obscuration and star formation but we do not find any association between X-ray column density and star formation rate both in the general population or the star-forming X-ray Seyferts. Our large compilation also allows us to report here the identification of 81 X-ray Bright Optically inactive Galaxies, 78 z > 3 X-ray sources, and eight Type-2 QSO candidates. Also, we have identified the highest redshift (z = 5.4135) X-ray-selected QSO with optical spectroscopy.
A contested term, radicalisation is typically considered a psychosocial process which increases the likelihood of a person engaging in extremist or terrorist behaviours directed against a specific ...group or ideological system. Likewise, the process through which a person becomes an Insider Threat (IT) is often described as a 'critical pathway' leading to behaviour that constitutes a significant risk to the security, stability, and cohesion of a defined organisation. Whilst radicalisation and IT are not traditionally viewed in parallel, the psychological processes which underpin them share various similarities, many of which are not fully understood. This paper focusses upon the ideological, identity-related, and psychosocial dimensions of radicalisation and IT, blending conceptual pathways into IT, with established views on radicalisation processes. The authors maintain further insight into the ideological and interpersonal aspects of IT and radicalisation is critical in informing recommendations for both policy development and practical application in both domains.
Photometric redshifts in the SWIRE Survey Rowan-Robinson, Michael; Babbedge, Tom; Oliver, Seb ...
Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society,
20/May , Volume:
386, Issue:
2
Journal Article
Peer reviewed
Open access
We present the SWIRE Photometric Redshift Catalogue 1 025 119 redshifts of unprecedented reliability and of accuracy comparable with or better than previous work. Our methodology is based on fixed ...galaxy and quasi-stellar object templates applied to data at 0.36–4.5 μm, and on a set of four infrared emission templates fitted to infrared excess data at 3.6–170 μm. The galaxy templates are initially empirical, but are given greater physical validity by fitting star formation histories to them, which also allows us to estimate stellar masses. The code involves two passes through the data, to try to optimize recognition of active galactic nucleus (AGN) dust tori. A few carefully justified priors are used and are the key to supression of outliers. Extinction, AV, is allowed as a free parameter. The full reduced χ2ν (z) distribution is given for each source, so the full error distribution can be used, and aliases investigated. We use a set of 5982 spectroscopic redshifts, taken from the literature and from our own spectroscopic surveys, to analyse the performance of our method as a function of the number of photometric bands used in the solution and the reduced χ2ν. For seven photometric bands (5 optical + 3.6, 4.5 μm), the rms value of (zphot−zspec)/(1 +zspec) is 3.5 per cent, and the percentage of catastrophic outliers defined as >15 per cent error in (1 +z), is ∼1 per cent. These rms values are comparable with the best achieved in other studies, and the outlier fraction is significantly better. The inclusion of the 3.6- and 4.5-μm IRAC bands is crucial in supression of outliers. We discuss the redshift distributions at 3.6 and 24 μm. In individual fields, structure in the redshift distribution corresponds to clusters which can be seen in the spectroscopic redshift distribution, so the photometric redshifts are a powerful tool for large-scale structure studies. 10 per cent of sources in the SWIRE photometric redshift catalogue have z > 2, and 4 per cent have z > 3, so this catalogue is a huge resource for high-redshift galaxies. A key parameter for understanding the evolutionary status of infrared galaxies is Lir/Lopt. For cirrus galaxies this is a measure of the mean extinction in the interstellar medium of the galaxy. There is a population of ultraluminous galaxies with cool dust and we have shown SEDs for some of the reliable examples. For starbursts, we estimate the specific star formation rate, φ*/M*. Although the very highest values of this ratio tend to be associated with Arp220 starbursts, by no means all ultraluminous galaxies are. We discuss an interesting population of galaxies with elliptical-like spectral energy distributions in the optical and luminous starbursts in the infrared. For dust tori around type 1 AGN, Ltor/Lopt is a measure of the torus covering factor and we deduce a mean covering factor of 40 per cent. Our infrared templates also allow us to estimate dust masses for all galaxies with an infrared excess.
Striking similarities have been seen between accretion signatures of Galactic X-ray binary (XRB) systems and active galactic nuclei (AGNs). XRB spectral states show a V-shaped correlation between ...X-ray spectral hardness and Eddington ratio as they vary, and some AGN samples reveal a similar trend, implying analogous processes at vastly larger masses and timescales. To further investigate the analogies, we have matched 617 sources from the Chandra Source Catalog to Sloan Digital Sky Survey spectroscopy, and uniformly measured both X-ray and optical spectral characteristics across a broad range of AGN and galaxy types. We provide useful tabulations of X-ray spectral slope for broad- and narrow-line AGNs, star-forming and passive galaxies, and composite systems, also updating relationships between optical (H alpha and OIII) line emission and X-ray luminosity. We further fit broadband spectral energy distributions with a variety of templates to estimate bolometric luminosity. Our results confirm a significant trend in AGNs between X-ray spectral hardness and Eddington ratio expressed in X-ray luminosity, albeit with significant dispersion. The trend is not significant when expressed in the full bolometric or template-estimated AGN luminosity. We also confirm a relationship between the X-ray/optical spectral slope alpha sub(ox) and Eddington ratio, but it may not follow the trend predicted by analogy with XRB accretion states.
We present 663 QSO candidates in the Large Magellanic Cloud (LMC) selected using multiple diagnostics. We started with a set of 2566 QSO candidates selected using the methodology presented in our ...previous work based on time variability of the MACHO LMC light curves. We then obtained additional information for the candidates by crossmatching them with the Spitzer SAGE, the Two Micron All Sky Survey, the Chandra, the XMM, and an LMC UBVI catalog. Using this information, we specified six diagnostic features based on mid-IR colors, photometric redshifts using spectral energy distribution template fitting, and X-ray luminosities in order to further discriminate high-confidence QSO candidates in the absence of spectra information. We then trained a one-class Support Vector Machine model using the diagnostics features of the confirmed 58 MACHO QSOs. We applied the trained model to the original candidates and finally selected 663 high-confidence QSO candidates. Furthermore, we crossmatched these 663 QSO candidates with the newly confirmed 151 QSOs and 275 non-QSOs in the LMC fields. On the basis of the counterpart analysis, we found that the false positive rate is less than 1%.
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