Human activities have substantial impacts on marine ecosystems+ including rapid regime shifts with large consequences for human well-being. We highlight the use of model-based scenarios as a ...scientific tool for adaptive stewardship in the face of such consequences. The natural sciences have a long history of developing scenarios but rarely with an in-depth understanding of factors influencing human actions. Social scientists have traditionally investigated human behavior, but scholars often argue that behavior is too complex to be represented by broad generalizations useful for models and scenarios. We address this scientific divide with a framework for integrated marine social-ecological scenarios, combining quantitative process-based models from the biogeochemical and ecological disciplines with qualitative studies on governance and social change. The aim is to develop policy-relevant scenarios based on an in-depth empirical understanding from both the natural and the social sciences, thereby contributing to adaptive stewardship of marine social-ecological systems.
To limit compromising the integrity of the planet, a shift is needed towards food production with low environmental impacts and low carbon footprint. How to put such transformative change towards ...sustainable food production whilst ensuring food security into practice remains a challenge and will require transdisciplinary approaches. Combining expertise from natural- and social sciences as well as industry perspectives, an alternative vision for the future in the marine realm is proposed. This vision includes moving towards aquaculture mainly of low trophic marine (LTM) species. Such shift may enable a blue transformation that can support a sustainable blue economy. It includes a whole new perspective and proactive development of policy-making which considers, among others, the context-specific nature of allocation of marine space and societal acceptance of new developments, over and above the decarbonization of food production, vis á vis reducing regulatory barriers for the industry for LTM whilst acknowledging the complexities of upscaling and outscaling. This needs to be supported by transdisciplinary research co-produced with consumers and wider public, as a blue transformation towards accelerating LTM aquaculture opportunities in a net zero-carbon world can only occur by considering the demands of society.
In their article 'Freshwater savings from marine protein consumption' (2014 Environ. Res. Lett. 9 014005), Gephart and her colleagues analyzed how consumption of marine animal protein rather than ...terrestrial animal protein leads to reduced freshwater allocation. They concluded that future water savings from increased marine fish consumption would be possible. We find the approach interesting and, if they only considered marine capture fisheries, their analysis would be quite straightforward and show savings of freshwater. However, both capture fisheries and aquaculture are considered in the analysis, and the fact that marine aquaculture is assumed to have a zero freshwater usage, makes the analysis incomplete. Feed resources used in marine aquaculture contain agriculture compounds, which results in a freshwater footprint. To correct this shortcoming we complement the approach taken by Gephart and her colleagues by estimating the freshwater footprint (WF) for crops used for feeding marine aquaculture. We show that this is critically important when estimating the true freshwater footprint for marine aquaculture, and that it will be increasingly so in the future. We also further expand on aquaculture's dependency on fish resources, as this was only briefly touched upon in the paper. We do so because changes in availability of fish resources will play an important role for feed development and thereby for the future freshwater footprint of marine aquaculture.
Introduction
Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is a challenge to modern medicine. Interventions have been applied worldwide to tackle AMR, but these actions are often not reported to peers or published, ...leading to important knowledge gaps about what actions are being taken. Understanding factors that influence the implementation of AMR interventions and what factors are relevant in low-middle-income countries (LMICs) and high-income countries (HICs) were the key objectives of this exploratory study, with the aim to identifying which priorities these contexts need.
Methods
A questionnaire was used to explore context, characteristics, and success factors or obstacles to intervention success based on participant input. The context was analyzed using the AMR-Intervene framework, and success factors and obstacles to intervention success were identified using thematic analysis.
Results
Of the 77 interventions, 57 were implemented in HICs and 17 in LMICs. Interventions took place in the animal sector, followed by the human sector. Public organizations were mainly responsible for implementation and funding. Nine themes and 32 sub-themes emerged as important for intervention success. The themes most frequently reported were ‘behavior’, ‘capacity and resources’, ‘planning’, and ‘information’. Five sub-themes were key in all contexts (‘collaboration and coordination’, ‘implementation’, ‘assessment’, ‘governance’, and ‘awareness’), two were key in LMICs (‘funding and finances’ and ‘surveillance, antimicrobial susceptibility testing and preventive screening’), and five were key in HICs (‘mandatory’, ‘multiple profiles’, ‘personnel’, ‘management’, and ‘design’).
Conclusion
LMIC sub-themes showed that funding and surveillance were still key issues for interventions, while important HIC sub-themes were more specific and detailed, including mandatory enforcement, multiple profiles, and personnel needed for good management and good design. While behavior is often underrated when implementing AMR interventions, capacity and resources are usually considered, and LMICs can benefit from sub-themes captured in HICs if tailored to their contexts. The factors identified can improve the design, planning, implementation, and evaluation of interventions.
Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) affects the environment, and animal and human health. Institutions worldwide have applied various measures, some of which have reduced antimicrobial use and AMR. ...However, little is known about factors influencing the success of AMR interventions. To address this gap, we engaged health professionals, designers, and implementers of AMR interventions in an exploratory study to learn about their experience and factors that challenged or facilitated interventions and the context in which interventions were implemented. Based on participant input, our thematic analysis identified behaviour; institutional governance and management; and sharing and enhancing information as key factors influencing success. Important sub-themes included: correct behaviour reinforcement, financial resources, training, assessment, and awareness of AMR. Overall, interventions were located in high-income countries, the human sector, and were publicly funded and implemented. In these contexts, behaviour patterns strongly influenced success, yet are often underrated or overlooked when designing AMR interventions. Improving our understanding of what contributes to successful interventions would allow for better designs of policies that are tailored to specific contexts. Exploratory approaches can provide encouraging results in complex challenges, as made evident in our study. Remaining challenges include more engagement in this type of study by professionals and characterisation of themes that influence intervention outcomes by context.
With AMU projected to increase, South East Asia (SEA) is at high risk of experiencing disproportionate health, social, and economic burdens due to antimicrobial resistance (AMR). Our objective was to ...identify factors influencing AMR in SEA's food system and places for intervention by integrating the perspectives of experts from the region to inform policy and management decisions.
We conducted two 6.5 h workshops and two 90-min interviews involving 18 AMR and other disciplinary experts from human, animal, and environment sectors who brainstormed the factors influencing AMR and identified leverage points (places) for intervention. Transcripts and workshop materials were coded for factors and their connections and transcribed into a causal loop diagram (CLD). Thematic analysis described AMR dynamics in SEA's food system and leverage points for intervention. The CLD and themes were confirmed
participant feedback.
Participants constructed a CLD of AMR in the SEA food system that contained 98 factors interlinked by 362 connections. CLD factors reflected eight sub-areas of the SEA food system (e.g., government). Seven themes e.g., antimicrobial and pesticide use and AMR spread (
= 40 quotes), six "overarching factors" that impact the entire AMR system e.g., the drive to survive (
= 12 quotes), and 10 places for intervention that target CLD factors (
= 5) and overarching factors (
= 2) emerged from workshop discussions.
The participant derived CLD of factors influencing AMR in the SEA food system demonstrates that AMR is a product of numerous interlinked actions taken across the One Health spectrum and that finding solutions is no simple task. Developing the model enabled the identification of potentially promising leverage points across human, animal, and environment sectors that, if comprehensively targeted using multi-pronged interventions, could evoke system wide changes that mitigate AMR. Even targeting some leverage points for intervention, such as increasing investments in research and capacity building, and setting and enforcing regulations to control antimicrobial supply, demand, and use could, in turn, shift mindsets that lead to changes in more difficult to alter leverage points, such as redefining the profit-driven intent that drives system behavior in ways that transform AMU and sustainably mitigate AMR.
Background
Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is a growing global crisis with long-term and unpredictable health, social and economic impacts, with which climate change is likely to interact. ...Understanding how to govern AMR amidst evolving climatic changes is critical. Scenario planning offers a suitable approach. By envisioning alternative futures, stakeholders more effectively can identify consequences, anticipate problems, and better determine how to intervene. This study explored future worlds and actions that may successfully address AMR in a changing climate in a high-income country, using Sweden as the case.
Methods
We conducted online scenario-building workshops and interviews with eight experts who explored: (1) how promising interventions (
taxation of antimicrobials at point of sale
, and
infection prevention measures
) could each combat AMR in 2050 in Sweden given our changing climate; and (2) actions to take starting in 2030 to ensure success in 2050. Transcripts were thematically analyzed to produce a narrative of participant validated alternative futures.
Results
Recognizing AMR to be a global problem requiring global solutions, participants looked beyond Sweden to construct three alternative futures: (1) “Tax Burn Out” revealed
taxation of antimicrobials
as a low-impact intervention that creates inequities and thus would fail to address AMR without other interventions, such as infection prevention measures. (2) “Addressing the Basics” identified
infection prevention measures
as highly impactful at containing AMR in 2050 because they would contribute to achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), which would be essential to tackling inequities underpinning AMR and climate change, and help to stabilize climate-induced mass migration and conflicts; and (3) ”Siloed Nations” described a movement toward nationalism and protectionism that would derail the “Addressing the Basics” scenario, threatening health and wellbeing of all. Several urgent actions were identified to combat AMR long-term regardless which future un-folds, such as global collaboration, and a holistic approach where AMR and climate change are addressed as interlinked issues.
Conclusion
Our participatory scenario planning approach enabled participants from different sectors to create shared future visions and identify urgent actions to take that hinge on global collaboration, addressing AMR and climate change together, and achieving the SDGs to combat AMR under a changing climate.
National authorities in many countries advise their populations to eat more seafood, for health and sometimes for environmental purposes, but give little guidance as to what type of seafood should be ...consumed. The large diversity in species and production methods results in variability both in the nutritional content and in the environmental performance of seafoods. More targeted dietary advice for sustainable seafood consumption requires a better understanding of the relative nutritional benefits against environmental costs of various types of seafood. This study analyzes the combined climate and nutritional performance of seafood commonly consumed in Sweden, originating all over the world. Nutrient density scores, assessed by seven alternative methods, are combined with species- technology- and origin-specific greenhouse gas emission data for 37 types of seafood. An integrated score indicates which seafood products provide the greatest nutritional value at the lowest climate costs and hence should be promoted from this perspective. Results show that seafoods consumed in Sweden differ widely in nutritional value as well as climate impact and that the two measures are not correlated across all species. Dietary changes towards increased consumption of more seafood choices where a correlation exists (e.g. pelagic species like sprat, herring and mackerel) would benefit both health and climate. Seafoods with a higher climate impact in relation to their nutritional value (e.g. shrimp, Pangasius and plaice) should, on the other hand, not be promoted in dietary advice. The effect of individual nutrients and implications of different nutrient density scores is evaluated. This research is a first step towards modelling the joint nutritional and climate benefits of seafood as a concrete baseline for policy-making, e.g. in dietary advice. It should be followed up by modelling other species, including environmental toxins in seafood in the nutrition score, and expanding to cover other environmental aspects.
•The climate and nutritional performance of 37 seafood products is assessed.•Seven methods to calculate the nutrient density of seafoods are evaluated.•Variability across seafoods is large both within and between seafood groups.•Most seafoods (21 out of 37) are more nutritious than beef, pork and chicken.•Seafoods with the lowest climate impact and highest nutritional score (e.g. sprat, herring, mackerel and perch) should be promoted in dietary advice.•Nutrition score and climate impact do not correlate consistently across species.
Conventional perceptions of the interactions between people and their environment are rapidly transforming. Old paradigms that view humans as separate from nature, natural resources as inexhaustible ...or endlessly substitutable, and the world as stable, predictable, and in balance are no longer tenable. New conceptual frameworks are rapidly emerging based on an adaptive approach that focuses on learning and flexible management in a dynamic social-ecological landscape. Using two iconic World Heritage Areas as case studies (the Great Barrier Reef and the Grand Canyon) we outline how an improved integration of the scientific and social aspects of natural resource management can guide the evolution of multiscale systems of governance that confront and cope with uncertainty, risk, and change in an increasingly human-dominated world.
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