For never-smokers (smoked <100 lifetime cigarettes), lung cancer (LC) has emerged as an important issue. We aimed to investigate the effects of prevalence changes in tobacco smoking and particulate ...matter (PM) 2.5 (PM2.5) levels on LC in Taiwan, in relation to contrasting PM2.5 levels, between Northern Taiwan (NT) and Southern Taiwan (ST).
We reviewed 371,084 patients with LC to assess smoking prevalence and correlations between the incidence of adenocarcinoma lung cancer (AdLC) and non-AdLC. Two subsets were selected to assess different AdLC stage trends and the effect of PM2.5 on survival of patients with AdLC.
From 1995 to 2015, the proportion of male adult ever-smokers decreased from 59.4% to 29.9% whereas the female smoking rate remained low (3.2% to 5.3%). AdLC incidence in males and females increased from 9.06 to 23.25 and 7.05 to 24.22 per 100,000 population, respectively. Since 1993, atmospheric visibility in NT improved (from 7.6 to 11.5 km), but deteriorated in ST (from 16.3 to 4.2 km). The annual percent change in AdLC stages IB to IV was 0.3% since 2009 (95% confidence interval CI: -1.9%–2.6%) in NT, and 4.6% since 2007 (95% CI: 3.3%–5.8%) in ST; 53% patients with LC had never smoked. Five-year survival rates for never-smokers, those with EGFR wild-type genes, and female patients with AdLC were 12.6% in NT and 4.5% in ST (hazard ratio: 0.79, 95% CI: 0.70–0.90).
In Taiwan, greater than 50% of patients with LC had never smoked. PM2.5 level changes can affect AdLC incidence and patient survival.
The Madden-Julian Oscillation in a warmer world Chang, Chiung-Wen June; Tseng, Wan-Ling; Hsu, Huang-Hsiung ...
Geophysical research letters,
28 July 2015, Volume:
42, Issue:
14
Journal Article
Peer reviewed
Open access
Global warming's impact on the Madden‐Julian Oscillation (MJO) is assessed using one of the few models capable in reproducing its key features. In a warmer climate predicted for the end of the ...century, the MJO increases in amplitude (by ~30%) and frequency, showing a more circumglobal propagation tendency. The MJO spatial extent becomes enhanced, deeper, and more zonally extended but meridionally confined. A stronger vertical tilting structure in diabatic heating, moisture, and convergence fields is seen. Our findings indicate that these changes result from an intensification of the frictional wave‐conditional instability of the second kind mechanism via the coupling of dynamical and thermodynamic response to the warming. The warming and moistening of the mean state contribute to the enhanced deep convective heating, driving a stronger‐forced Kelvin wave‐like perturbation. This reinforces the frictional low‐level convergence, leading to larger shallow convective heating and therefore to a faster development and enhancement of the deep convection in the MJO.
Key Points
Model capable in reproducing realistic MJO is used for MJO projection
Global warming enhances MJO
Mutual reinforcement of thermodynamic and dynamic factors for stronger tilting
The Taiwan Strait (TS) directly connects two of the richest fishing grounds in the world - the East China Sea (ECS) and the South China Sea (SCS). Carbon and nutrient supplies are essential for ...primary production and the Yangtze River is an important source for the ECS. However the ECS is severely P-limited. The TS transports an order of magnitude more carbon and a factor of two more phosphate (P) to the ECS than the Yangtze River does. To evaluate the temporal variability of these supplies, the total alkalinity (TA), dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC), nitrate plus nitrite (N), P, and silicate (Si) fluxes through the TS were estimated using empirical equations for these parameters and the current velocity, which was estimated using the Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM). These empirical equations were derived from in situ salinity and temperature and measured chemical concentrations that were collected during 57 cruises (1995-2014) with a total of 2096 bottle samples. The 24-month moving averages of water, carbon, and nutrient fluxes significantly increase with time, so does the satellite chlorophyll a concentration. More importantly, the increased supply of the badly needed P from the TS is more than that from the Yangtze River.
By modulating the Earth-atmosphere energy, hydrological and biogeochemical cycles, and affecting regional-to-global weather and climate, biomass burning is recognized as one of the major factors ...affecting the global carbon cycle. However, few comprehensive and wide-ranging experiments have been conducted to characterize biomass-burning pollutants in Southeast Asia (SEA) or assess their regional impact on meteorology, the hydrological cycle, the radiative budget, or climate change. Recently, BASE-ASIA (Biomass-burning Aerosols in South-East Asia: Smoke Impact Assessment) and the 7-SEAS (7-South-East Asian Studies)/Dongsha Experiment were conducted during the spring seasons of 2006 and 2010 in northern SEA, respectively, to characterize the chemical, physical, and radiative properties of biomass-burning emissions near the source regions, and assess their effects. This paper provides an overview of results from these two campaigns and related studies collected in this special issue, entitled “Observation, modeling and impact studies of biomass burning and pollution in the SE Asian Environment”. This volume includes 28 papers, which provide a synopsis of the experiments, regional weather/climate, chemical characterization of biomass-burning aerosols and related pollutants in source and sink regions, the spatial distribution of air toxics (atmospheric mercury and dioxins) in source and remote areas, a characterization of aerosol physical, optical, and radiative properties, as well as modeling and impact studies. These studies, taken together, provide the first relatively complete dataset of aerosol chemistry and physical observations conducted in the source/sink region in the northern SEA, with particular emphasis on the marine boundary layer and lower free troposphere (LFT). The data, analysis and modeling included in these papers advance our present knowledge of source characterization of biomass-burning pollutants near the source regions as well as the physical and chemical processes along transport pathways. In addition, we raise key questions to be addressed by a coming deployment during springtime 2013 in northern SEA, named 7-SEAS/BASELInE (Biomass-burning Aerosols & Stratocumulus Environment: Lifecycles and Interactions Experiment). This campaign will include a synergistic approach for further exploring many key atmospheric processes (e.g., complex aerosol–cloud interactions) and impacts of biomass burning on the surface–atmosphere energy budgets during the lifecycles of biomass-burning emissions.
Display omitted
•First comprehensive field study of biomass burning conducted in the northern SEA.•First in-situ measurements of air chemistry and physics in South China Sea/East Sea.•A conceptual model of circulation flows constructed for transport of biomass burning.•Characterization of biomass-burning aerosols in source/sink region in northern SEA.•Spatial distribution of Hg and POPs over northern SEA is illustrated.
We investigate the impact of resolving air-sea interaction on the simulation of the intraseasonal rainfall variability over the South Pacific using the ECHAM5 atmospheric general circulation model ...coupled with the Snow-Ice-Thermocline (SIT) ocean model. We compare the fully coupled simulation with two uncoupled ECHAM5 simulations, one forced with sea surface temperature (SST) climatology and one forced with daily SST from the coupled model. The intraseasonal rainfall variability over the South Pacific is reduced by 17% in the uncoupled model forced with SST climatology and increased by 8% in the uncoupled simulation forced with daily SST, suggesting the role of air–sea coupling and SST variability. The coupled model best simulates the key characteristics of the two dominant patterns (modes) of intraseasonal rainfall variability over the South Pacific with reasonable propagation and correct periodicity. The spatial structure of the two rainfall modes in all three simulations is very similar, suggesting the dynamics of the atmosphere primarily generate these modes. The southeastward propagation of rainfall anomalies associated with two leading rainfall modes in the South Pacific depends upon the eastward propagating Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) signals from the Indian Ocean and western Pacific. Air-sea interaction improves such propagation as both eastward and southeastward propagations are substantially reduced in the uncoupled model forced with SST climatology. The simulation of both eastward and southeastward propagations considerably improved in the uncoupled model forced with daily SST; however, the periodicity differs from the coupled model. Such discrepancy in the periodicity is attributed to the changes in the SST-rainfall relationship with weaker correlations and the nearly in-phase relationship, attributed to enhanced positive latent heat flux feedbacks.
With a fall of the Caspian Sea level (CSL), its size gets smaller and therefore the total evaporation over the sea is reduced. With a reduced evaporation from the sea, the fall of the CSL is ...weakened. This creates a negative feedback as less evaporation leads to less water losses of the Caspian Sea (CS). On the other hand, less evaporation reduces the water in the atmosphere, which may lead to less precipitation in the catchment area of the CS. The two opposite feedbacks are estimated by using an atmospheric climate model coupled with an ocean model only for the CS with different CS sizes while keeping all other forcings like oceanic sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and leaf area index the same from a global climate simulation. The investigation is concentrated on the medieval period because at that time the CSL changed dramatically from about − 30 to − 19 m below the mean ocean sea level, partly man-made. Models used for simulating the last millennium are not able to change the size of the CS dynamically so far. When results from such simulations are used to investigate the CSL variability and its causes, the present study should help to parameterize its feedbacks.
A first assumption that the total evaporation from the CS will vary with the size of the CS (number of grid points representing the sea) is generally confirmed with the model simulations. The decrease of grid points from 15 to 14, 10, 8 or 7 leads to a decrease of evaporation to 96, 77, 70 and 54%. The lower decrease than initially expected from the number of grid points (93, 67, 53 and 47%) is probably due to the fact that there would also be some evaporation at grid points that run dry with a lower CSL but a cooling of the CS SST with increasing CS size in summer may be more important. The reduction of evaporation over the CS means more water for the budget of the whole catchment of the CS (an increase of the CSL) but from the gain through reduced evaporation over the CS, only 70% is found to remain in the water budget of the whole catchment area due to feedbacks with the precipitation. This suggests a high proportion of recycling of water within the CS catchment area.
When using a model which does not have a correct CS size, the effect of a reduced CS area on the water budget for the whole CS catchment can be estimated by taking the evaporation over the sea multiplied by the proportional changed area. However, only 50% of that change is ending up in the water balance of the total catchment of the CS. A formula is provided. This method has been applied to estimate the CSL during the Last Glacial Maximum to be at − 30 to − 33 m.
The experiments show as well that the CS has an impact on the large-scale atmospheric circulation with a widened Aleutian 500 hPa height field trough with increasing CS sizes. It is possible to validate this aspect with observational data.
Here we show that coupling a high-resolution one-column ocean model to an atmospheric general circulation model dramatically improves simulation of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) to have ...realistic strength, period, and propagation speed. The mechanism for the simulated MJO involves both frictional wave-convective conditional instability of the second kind (Frictional wave-CISK) and air–sea convective intraseasonal interaction (ASCII). In particular, better resolving the fine structure of upper ocean temperature, especially the warm layer, produces more vigorous atmosphere–ocean interaction and strengthens intraseasonal variations in both SST and atmospheric circulation. This helps organize and strengthen deep convection, inducing a stronger Kelvin-wave like perturbation and frictional near-surface convergence to the east. In addition, the warmer SST ahead of the MJO also acts to destabilize the boundary layer and enhance frictional convergence. These lead to a more realistic eastward-propagating MJO. A suite of sensitivity experiments were performed to show the robustness of the mechanisms and to demonstrate: (1) that mean state differences are not the main contributors to the improved simulation of our coupled model; (2) the role of SST variability in enhancing frictional convergence and intraseasonal variations in precipitation, and (3) that the simulation is significantly degraded when the first ocean model layer is thicker than 10 m. Our coupled model results are consistent with observations and demonstrate a simple but effective means to significantly improve MJO simulation and potentially also forecasts.
A one-column, turbulent, and kinetic-energy-type ocean mixed-layer model
(snow–ice–thermocline, SIT), when coupled with three atmospheric general
circulation models (AGCMs), yields superior ...Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO)
simulations. SIT is designed to have fine layers similar to those observed
near the ocean surface; therefore, it can realistically simulate the diurnal
warm layer and cool skin. This refined discretization of the near-surface ocean
in SIT provides accurate sea surface temperature (SST) simulation, and
thus facilitates realistic air–sea interaction. Coupling SIT with
the European Centre/Hamburg Model version 5, the Community Atmosphere Model
version 5, and the High-Resolution Atmospheric Model significantly improved MJO
simulation in three coupled AGCMs compared to the AGCM driven by a
prescribed SST. This study suggests two major improvements to the coupling
process. First, during the preconditioning phase of MJO over the Maritime
Continent (MC), the often underestimated surface latent heat bias in AGCMs
can be corrected. Second, during the phase of strongest convection over the MC,
the change in intraseasonal circulation in the meridional circulation
enhancing near-surface moisture convergence is the dominant factor in the
coupled simulations relative to the uncoupled experiments. The study results
show that a fine vertical resolution near the surface, which better captures
temperature variations in the upper few meters of the ocean, considerably
improves different models with different configurations and physical
parameterization schemes; this could be an essential factor for accurate MJO
simulation.
Over one-third of energy is generated from coal consumption in Taiwan. In order to estimate the health impact assessment attributable to PM2.5 concentrations emitted from coal consumption in Taiwan. ...We applied a Gaussian trajectory transfer-coefficient model to obtain county-wide PM2.5 exposures from coal consumption, which includes coal-fired power plants and combined heat and power plants. Next, we calculated the mortality burden attributable to PM2.5 emitted by coal consumption using the comparative risk assessment framework developed by the Global Burden of Disease study. Based on county-level data, the average PM2.5 emissions from coal-fired plants in Taiwan was estimated at 2.03 ± 1.29 (range: 0.32–5.64) μg/m3. With PM2.5 increments greater than 0.1 μg/m3, there were as many as 16 counties and 66 air quality monitoring stations affected by coal-fired plants and 6 counties and 18 monitoring stations affected by combined heat and power plants. The maximum distances affected by coal-fired and combined heat and power plants were 272 km and 157 km, respectively. Our findings show that more counties were affected by coal-fired plants than by combined heat and power plants with significant increments of PM2.5 emissions. We estimated that 359.6 (95% CI: 334.8–384.9) annual adult deaths and 124.4 (95% CI: 116.4–132.3) annual premature deaths were attributable to PM2.5 emitted by coal-fired plants in Taiwan. Even in six counties without power plants, there were 75.8 (95% CI: 60.1–91.5) deaths and 25.8 (95%CI: 20.7–30.9) premature deaths annually attributable to PM2.5 emitted from neighboring coal-fired plants. This study presents a precise and effective integrated approach for assessing air pollution and the health impacts of coal-fired and combined heat and power plants.
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