Multiple sclerosis (MS) is a chronic disease that requires lifelong treatment. A highly effective drug not only for relapsing but also for progressive forms of MS with a favorable safety profile is ...needed to further improve overall patient outcomes. Ocrelizumab, a recombinant humanized monoclonal antibody that selectively targets CD20-expressing B-cells, is the first drug indicated for the treatment of adult patients with relapsing forms of MS (RMS) and primary progressive MS (PPMS). Its safety and effectiveness profile has yet to be studied in a large, real-world setting. CONFIDENCE aims to further characterize the safety profile of ocrelizumab in routine clinical practice. In addition, real-world effectiveness data will be collected to complement the efficacy data documented in the pivotal clinical trials.
CONFIDENCE is a non-interventional, prospective, multicenter, long-term study collecting primary data from 3000 RMS and PPMS patients newly treated with ocrelizumab and 1500 patients newly treated with other selected MS disease-modifying therapies (DMTs). Treatment must be in accordance with the local label and follow routine practice. Data will be collected at approximately 250 neurological centers and practices across Germany. The recruitment period of 30 months started in April 2018. The observation period per patient is planned 7.5 to 10 years, depending on the date of inclusion, regardless of whether patients discontinue treatment. Visits follow routine practice and will be documented approximately every 6 months. The primary endpoint is the incidence and type of uncommon adverse events and death. Statistical analyses will be mainly descriptive and exploratory.
CONFIDENCE is a large, non-interventional, post-authorization safety study that assesses long-term safety and effectiveness of ocrelizumab and other DMTs in a real-world setting. Data collected in CONFIDENCE will also be integrated into studies that have been developed to fulfil international regulatory requirements.
Summary Background Overweight and obesity are increasing worldwide. To help assess their relevance to mortality in different populations we conducted individual-participant data meta-analyses of ...prospective studies of body-mass index (BMI), limiting confounding and reverse causality by restricting analyses to never-smokers and excluding pre-existing disease and the first 5 years of follow-up. Methods Of 10 625 411 participants in Asia, Australia and New Zealand, Europe, and North America from 239 prospective studies (median follow-up 13·7 years, IQR 11·4–14·7), 3 951 455 people in 189 studies were never-smokers without chronic diseases at recruitment who survived 5 years, of whom 385 879 died. The primary analyses are of these deaths, and study, age, and sex adjusted hazard ratios (HRs), relative to BMI 22·5–<25·0 kg/m2. Findings All-cause mortality was minimal at 20·0–25·0 kg/m2 (HR 1·00, 95% CI 0·98–1·02 for BMI 20·0–<22·5 kg/m2 ; 1·00, 0·99–1·01 for BMI 22·5–<25·0 kg/m2 ), and increased significantly both just below this range (1·13, 1·09–1·17 for BMI 18·5–<20·0 kg/m2 ; 1·51, 1·43–1·59 for BMI 15·0–<18·5) and throughout the overweight range (1·07, 1·07–1·08 for BMI 25·0–<27·5 kg/m2 ; 1·20, 1·18–1·22 for BMI 27·5–<30·0 kg/m2 ). The HR for obesity grade 1 (BMI 30·0–<35·0 kg/m2 ) was 1·45, 95% CI 1·41–1·48; the HR for obesity grade 2 (35·0–<40·0 kg/m2 ) was 1·94, 1·87–2·01; and the HR for obesity grade 3 (40·0–<60·0 kg/m2 ) was 2·76, 2·60–2·92. For BMI over 25·0 kg/m2 , mortality increased approximately log-linearly with BMI; the HR per 5 kg/m2 units higher BMI was 1·39 (1·34–1·43) in Europe, 1·29 (1·26–1·32) in North America, 1·39 (1·34–1·44) in east Asia, and 1·31 (1·27–1·35) in Australia and New Zealand. This HR per 5 kg/m2 units higher BMI (for BMI over 25 kg/m2 ) was greater in younger than older people (1·52, 95% CI 1·47–1·56, for BMI measured at 35–49 years vs 1·21, 1·17–1·25, for BMI measured at 70–89 years; pheterogeneity <0·0001), greater in men than women (1·51, 1·46–1·56, vs 1·30, 1·26–1·33; pheterogeneity <0·0001), but similar in studies with self-reported and measured BMI. Interpretation The associations of both overweight and obesity with higher all-cause mortality were broadly consistent in four continents. This finding supports strategies to combat the entire spectrum of excess adiposity in many populations. Funding UK Medical Research Council, British Heart Foundation, National Institute for Health Research, US National Institutes of Health.
The prevalence of cardiometabolic multimorbidity is increasing.
To estimate reductions in life expectancy associated with cardiometabolic multimorbidity.
Age- and sex-adjusted mortality rates and ...hazard ratios (HRs) were calculated using individual participant data from the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration (689,300 participants; 91 cohorts; years of baseline surveys: 1960-2007; latest mortality follow-up: April 2013; 128,843 deaths). The HRs from the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration were compared with those from the UK Biobank (499,808 participants; years of baseline surveys: 2006-2010; latest mortality follow-up: November 2013; 7995 deaths). Cumulative survival was estimated by applying calculated age-specific HRs for mortality to contemporary US age-specific death rates.
A history of 2 or more of the following: diabetes mellitus, stroke, myocardial infarction (MI).
All-cause mortality and estimated reductions in life expectancy.
In participants in the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration without a history of diabetes, stroke, or MI at baseline (reference group), the all-cause mortality rate adjusted to the age of 60 years was 6.8 per 1000 person-years. Mortality rates per 1000 person-years were 15.6 in participants with a history of diabetes, 16.1 in those with stroke, 16.8 in those with MI, 32.0 in those with both diabetes and MI, 32.5 in those with both diabetes and stroke, 32.8 in those with both stroke and MI, and 59.5 in those with diabetes, stroke, and MI. Compared with the reference group, the HRs for all-cause mortality were 1.9 (95% CI, 1.8-2.0) in participants with a history of diabetes, 2.1 (95% CI, 2.0-2.2) in those with stroke, 2.0 (95% CI, 1.9-2.2) in those with MI, 3.7 (95% CI, 3.3-4.1) in those with both diabetes and MI, 3.8 (95% CI, 3.5-4.2) in those with both diabetes and stroke, 3.5 (95% CI, 3.1-4.0) in those with both stroke and MI, and 6.9 (95% CI, 5.7-8.3) in those with diabetes, stroke, and MI. The HRs from the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration were similar to those from the more recently recruited UK Biobank. The HRs were little changed after further adjustment for markers of established intermediate pathways (eg, levels of lipids and blood pressure) and lifestyle factors (eg, smoking, diet). At the age of 60 years, a history of any 2 of these conditions was associated with 12 years of reduced life expectancy and a history of all 3 of these conditions was associated with 15 years of reduced life expectancy.
Mortality associated with a history of diabetes, stroke, or MI was similar for each condition. Because any combination of these conditions was associated with multiplicative mortality risk, life expectancy was substantially lower in people with multimorbidity.
There is debate about the value of assessing levels of C-reactive protein (CRP) and other biomarkers of inflammation for the prediction of first cardiovascular events.
We analyzed data from 52 ...prospective studies that included 246,669 participants without a history of cardiovascular disease to investigate the value of adding CRP or fibrinogen levels to conventional risk factors for the prediction of cardiovascular risk. We calculated measures of discrimination and reclassification during follow-up and modeled the clinical implications of initiation of statin therapy after the assessment of CRP or fibrinogen.
The addition of information on high-density lipoprotein cholesterol to a prognostic model for cardiovascular disease that included age, sex, smoking status, blood pressure, history of diabetes, and total cholesterol level increased the C-index, a measure of risk discrimination, by 0.0050. The further addition to this model of information on CRP or fibrinogen increased the C-index by 0.0039 and 0.0027, respectively (P<0.001), and yielded a net reclassification improvement of 1.52% and 0.83%, respectively, for the predicted 10-year risk categories of "low" (<10%), "intermediate" (10% to <20%), and "high" (≥20%) (P<0.02 for both comparisons). We estimated that among 100,000 adults 40 years of age or older, 15,025 persons would initially be classified as being at intermediate risk for a cardiovascular event if conventional risk factors alone were used to calculate risk. Assuming that statin therapy would be initiated in accordance with Adult Treatment Panel III guidelines (i.e., for persons with a predicted risk of ≥20% and for those with certain other risk factors, such as diabetes, irrespective of their 10-year predicted risk), additional targeted assessment of CRP or fibrinogen levels in the 13,199 remaining participants at intermediate risk could help prevent approximately 30 additional cardiovascular events over the course of 10 years.
In a study of people without known cardiovascular disease, we estimated that under current treatment guidelines, assessment of the CRP or fibrinogen level in people at intermediate risk for a cardiovascular event could help prevent one additional event over a period of 10 years for every 400 to 500 people screened. (Funded by the British Heart Foundation and others.).
Background:
People with multiple sclerosis (pwMS) have increased comorbid disease (CMD) risk. Most previous studies have not considered overall CMD burden.
Objective:
To describe lifetime CMD burden ...among pwMS.
Methods:
PwMS identified using Swedish registers between 1968 and 2012 (n = 25,476) were matched by sex, age, and county of residence with general-population comparators (n = 251,170). Prevalence, prevalence ratios (PRs), survival functions, and hazard ratios by MS status, age, and time period compared seven CMD: autoimmune, cardiovascular, depression, diabetes, respiratory, renal, and seizures.
Results:
The magnitude of the PRs for each CMD and age group decreased across time, with higher PRs in earlier time periods. Before 1990, younger age groups had higher PRs, and after 1990, older age groups had higher PRs. Male pwMS had higher burden compared with females. Overall, renal, respiratory, and seizures had the highest PRs. Before 2001, 50% of pwMS received a first/additional CMD diagnosis 20 years prior to people without MS, which reduced to 4 years after 2001. PwMS had four times higher rates of first/additional diagnoses in earlier time periods, which reduced to less than two times higher in recent time periods compared to people without MS.
Conclusion:
Swedish pwMS have increased CMD burden compared with the general population, but this has reduced over time.
The extent to which adult height, a biomarker of the interplay of genetic endowment and early-life experiences, is related to risk of chronic diseases in adulthood is uncertain.
We calculated hazard ...ratios (HRs) for height, assessed in increments of 6.5 cm, using individual-participant data on 174374 deaths or major non-fatal vascular outcomes recorded among 1085949 people in 121 prospective studies.
For people born between 1900 and 1960, mean adult height increased 0.5-1 cm with each successive decade of birth. After adjustment for age, sex, smoking and year of birth, HRs per 6.5 cm greater height were 0.97 (95% confidence interval: 0.96-0.99) for death from any cause, 0.94 (0.93-0.96) for death from vascular causes, 1.04 (1.03-1.06) for death from cancer and 0.92 (0.90-0.94) for death from other causes. Height was negatively associated with death from coronary disease, stroke subtypes, heart failure, stomach and oral cancers, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, mental disorders, liver disease and external causes. In contrast, height was positively associated with death from ruptured aortic aneurysm, pulmonary embolism, melanoma and cancers of the pancreas, endocrine and nervous systems, ovary, breast, prostate, colorectum, blood and lung. HRs per 6.5 cm greater height ranged from 1.26 (1.12-1.42) for risk of melanoma death to 0.84 (0.80-0.89) for risk of death from chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. HRs were not appreciably altered after further adjustment for adiposity, blood pressure, lipids, inflammation biomarkers, diabetes mellitus, alcohol consumption or socio-economic indicators.
Adult height has directionally opposing relationships with risk of death from several different major causes of chronic diseases.
Background and purpose
Reaching Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) ≥7.0 represents the requirement for a wheelchair. Here we (i) assess the effect of ocrelizumab on time to EDSS ≥7.0 over the ...ORATORIO (NCT01194570) double‐blind and extended controlled periods (DBP+ECP), (ii) quantify likely long‐term benefits by extrapolating results, and (iii) assess the plausibility of extrapolations using an independent real‐world cohort (MSBase registry; ACTRN12605000455662).
Methods
Post hoc analyses assessing time to 24‐week confirmed EDSS ≥7.0 in two cohorts of patients with primary progressive multiple sclerosis (baseline EDSS 3.0–6.5) were investigated in ORATORIO and MSBase.
Results
In the ORATORIO DBP+ECP, ocrelizumab reduced the risk of 24‐week confirmed EDSS ≥7.0 (hazard ratio = 0.54, 95% confidence interval CI: 0.31–0.92; p = 0.022). Extrapolated median time to 24‐week confirmed EDSS ≥7.0 was 12.1 and 19.2 years for placebo and ocrelizumab, respectively (7.1‐year delay 95% CI: −4.3 to 18.4). In MSBase, the median time to 24‐week confirmed EDSS ≥7.0 was 12.4 years.
Conclusions
Compared with placebo, ocrelizumab significantly delayed time to 24‐week confirmed wheelchair requirement in ORATORIO. The plausibility of the extrapolated median time to reach this milestone in the placebo group was supported by observed real‐world data from MSBase. Extrapolated benefits for ocrelizumab over placebo could represent a truly meaningful delay in loss of ambulation and independence.
Extrapolated data from the ORATORIO trial suggest ocrelizumab treatment delays the median time to requiring a wheelchair by 7.1 years versus placebo. Similar disability trajectories observed in real‐world data from the MSBase registry and initial data from the ORATORIO open‐label extension support the plausibility of these extrapolations.
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