Summary Background The model of infectious disease prevention and control changed significantly in China after the outbreak in 2003 of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), but trends and ...epidemiological features of infectious diseases are rarely studied. In this study, we aimed to assess specific incidence and mortality trends of 45 notifiable infectious diseases from 2004 to 2013 in China and to investigate the overall effectiveness of current prevention and control strategies. Methods Incidence and mortality data for 45 notifiable infectious diseases were extracted from a WChinese public health science data centre from 2004 to 2013, which covers 31 provinces in mainland China. We estimated the annual percentage change in incidence of each infectious disease using joinpoint regression. Findings Between January, 2004, and December, 2013, 54 984 661 cases of 45 infectious diseases were reported (average yearly incidence 417·98 per 100 000). The infectious diseases with the highest yearly incidence were hand, foot, and mouth disease (114·48 per 100 000), hepatitis B (81·57 per 100 000), and tuberculosis (80·33 per 100 000). 132 681 deaths were reported among the 54 984 661 cases (average yearly mortality 1·01 deaths per 100 000; average case fatality 2·4 per 1000). Overall yearly incidence of infectious disease was higher among males than females and was highest among children younger than 10 years. Overall yearly mortality was higher among males than females older than 20 years and highest among individuals older than 80 years. Average yearly incidence rose from 300·54 per 100 000 in 2004 to 483·63 per 100 000 in 2013 (annual percentage change 5·9%); hydatid disease (echinococcosis), hepatitis C, and syphilis showed the fastest growth. The overall increasing trend changed after 2009, and the annual percentage change in incidence of infectious disease in 2009–13 (2·3%) was significantly lower than in 2004–08 (6·2%). Interpretation Although the overall incidence of infectious diseases was increasing from 2004, the rate levelled off after 2009. Effective prevention and control strategies are needed for diseases with the highest incidence—including hand, foot, and mouth disease, hepatitis B, and tuberculosis—and those with the fastest rates of increase (including hydatid disease, hepatitis C, and syphilis). Funding Chinese Ministry of Science and Technology, National Natural Science Foundation (China).
We examined temporal trends in liver cancer incidence rates overall and by histological type from 1983 through 2007. We predict trends in liver cancer incidence rates through 2030 for selected ...Eastern and Southeastern Asian countries.
Data on yearly liver cancer incident cases by age group and sex were drawn from 6 major selected Eastern and Southeastern Asian countries or regions with cancer registries available in the CI5plus database, including China, Japan, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (SAR), the Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand. We also analyzed data for the United States and Australia for comparative purposes. Age-standardized incidence rates were calculated and plotted from 1983 through 2007. Numbers of new cases and incidence rates were predicted through 2030 by fitting and extrapolating age–period–cohort models.
The incidence rates of liver cancer have been decreasing, and decreases will continue in all selected Eastern and Southeastern Asian countries, except for Thailand, whose liver cancer incidence rate will increase due to the increasing incidence rate of intrahepatic cholangiocarcinomas. Even though the incidence rates of liver cancer are predicted to decrease in most Eastern and Southeastern Asian countries, the burden, in terms of new cases, will continue to increase because of population growth and aging.
Based on an analysis of data from cancer registries from Asian countries, incidence rates of liver cancer are expected to decrease through 2030 in most Eastern and Southeastern Asian countries. However, in Thailand, the incidence rate of intrahepatic cholangiocarcinomas is predicted to increase, so health education programs are necessary.
•Prevalence of latent tuberculosis infection decreased slowly worldwide.•Disease burden in the prevalence of latent tuberculosis infection varied geographically.•Much more effort on latent ...tuberculosis infection should be made worldwide.
To track the prevalence trends of latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI) at the global, regional, and national levels.
Data on the prevalence of LTBI were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease database. The average annual percent change (AAPC) was estimated by joinpoint regression and was used to evaluate the epidemic of the disease.
Globally, the prevalence rate of LTBI decreased from 30.66% in 1990 to 23.67% in 2019, with an AAPC of -0.9%. The prevalence rate of LTBI varied from 5.02% (Jordan) to 48.35% (Uganda) in 1990 and from 2.51% (Jordan) to 43.75% (Vietnam) in 2019 at the country level. The prevalence decreased in all the six World Health Organization (WHO) regions and in most countries, with the AAPC ranging from -0.5% in the Western Pacific Region to -2.1% in the European Region and from -4.3% (Bhutan) to -0.1% (Malaysia, Myanmar, South Africa, Tokelau, and Vietnam), respectively. Disparities were also observed among different sex and age groups.
The prevalence of LTBI decreased slightly worldwide in the last three decades, but the decrease is slow and not sufficient to meet the targets of WHO tuberculosis elimination. Much more effort and progress should be made in order to decrease the prevalence of LTBI.
Summary Background Human infection with avian influenza A H7N9 virus emerged in eastern China in February, 2013, and has been associated with exposure to poultry. We report the clinical and ...microbiological features of patients infected with influenza A H7N9 virus and compare genomic features of the human virus with those of the virus in market poultry in Zhejiang, China. Methods Between March 7 and April 8, 2013, we included hospital inpatients if they had new-onset respiratory symptoms, unexplained radiographic infiltrate, and laboratory-confirmed H7N9 virus infection. We recorded histories and results of haematological, biochemical, radiological, and microbiological investigations. We took throat and sputum samples, used RT-PCR to detect M, H7, and N9 genes, and cultured samples in Madin-Darby canine kidney cells. We tested for co-infections and monitored serum concentrations of six cytokines and chemokines. We collected cloacal swabs from 86 birds from epidemiologically linked wet markets and inoculated embryonated chicken eggs with the samples. We identified and subtyped isolates by RT-PCR sequencing. RNA extraction, complementary DNA synthesis, and PCR sequencing were done for one human and one chicken isolate. We characterised and phylogenetically analysed the eight gene segments of the viruses in the patient's and the chicken's isolates, and constructed phylogenetic trees of H, N, PB2, and NS genes. Findings We identified four patients (mean age 56 years), all of whom had contact with poultry 3–8 days before disease onset. They presented with fever and rapidly progressive pneumonia that did not respond to antibiotics. Patients were leucopenic and lymphopenic, and had impaired liver or renal function, substantially increased serum cytokine or chemokine concentrations, and disseminated intravascular coagulation with disease progression. Two patients died. Sputum specimens were more likely to test positive for the H7N9 virus than were samples from throat swabs. The viral isolate from the patient was closely similar to that from an epidemiologically linked market chicken. All viral gene segments were of avian origin. The H7 of the isolated viruses was closest to that of the H7N3 virus from domestic ducks in Zhejiang, whereas the N9 was closest to that of the wild bird H7N9 virus in South Korea. We noted Gln226Leu and Gly186Val substitutions in human virus H7 (associated with increased affinity for α-2,6-linked sialic acid receptors) and the PB2 Asp701Asn mutation (associated with mammalian adaptation). Ser31Asn mutation, which is associated with adamantane resistance, was noted in viral M2. Interpretation Cross species poultry-to-person transmission of this new reassortant H7N9 virus is associated with severe pneumonia and multiorgan dysfunction in human beings. Monitoring of the viral evolution and further study of disease pathogenesis will improve disease management, epidemic control, and pandemic preparedness. Funding Larry Chi-Kin Yung, National Key Program for Infectious Diseases of China.
Rotavirus is the leading global pathogen of diarrhea-associated mortality and poses a great threat to public health in all age groups. This study aimed to explore the global burden and 30-year change ...patterns of rotavirus infection-associated deaths. Based on the Global Burden of Disease 2019 Study (GBD 2019), we analyzed the age-standardized death rate (ASDR) of rotavirus infection by sex, geographical region, and sociodemographic index (SDI) from 1990 to 2019. A Joinpoint regression model was used to analyze the global trends in rotavirus infection over the 30 years, SaTScan software was used to detect the spatial and temporal aggregations, and a generalized linear model to explore the relationship between sociodemographic factors and death rates of rotavirus infection. Globally, rotavirus infection was the leading cause of diarrheal deaths, accounting for 19.11% of deaths from diarrhea in 2019. Rotavirus caused a higher death burden in African, Oceanian, and South Asian countries in the past three decades. The ASDR of rotavirus declined from 11.39 (95% uncertainty interval 95% UI 5.46-19.48) per 100,000 people in 1990 to 3.41 (95% UI 1.60-6.01) per 100,000 people in 2019, with an average annual percentage change (AAPC) (- 4.07%, P < 0.05). However, a significant uptrend was found in high-income North America (AAPC = 1.79%, P < 0.05). The death rate was the highest among children under 5 years worldwide. However, the death rates of elderly individuals over 70 years were higher than those of children under 5 years in 2019 among high, high-middle, middle, and low-middle SDI regions. Current health expenditure, gross domestic product per capita, and the number of physicians per 1000 people were significantly negatively correlated with death rates of rotavirus. Although the global trends in the rotavirus burden have decreased substantially over the past three decades, the burden of rotavirus remained high in Africa, Oceania, and South Asia. Children under 5 years and elderly individuals over 70 years were the populations most at risk for rotavirus infection-associated deaths, especially elderly individuals over 70 years in relatively high SDI regions. More attention should be paid to these areas and populations, and effective public health policies should be implemented in the future.
Host-adaptive strategies, such as the E627K substitution in the PB2 protein, are critical for replication of avian influenza A viruses in mammalian hosts. Here we show that mutation PB2-K526R is ...present in some human H7N9 influenza isolates, in nearly 80% of H5N1 human isolates from Indonesia and, in conjunction with E627K, in almost all seasonal H3N2 viruses since 1970. Polymerase complexes containing PB2-526R derived from H7N9, H5N1 or H3N2 viruses exhibit increased polymerase activity. PB2-526R also enhances viral transcription and replication in cells. In comparison with viruses carrying 627K, H7N9 viruses carrying both 526R and 627K replicate more efficiently in mammalian (but not avian) cells and in mouse lung tissues, and cause greater body weight loss and mortality in infected mice. PB2-K526R interacts with nuclear export protein and our results suggest that it contributes to enhance replication for certain influenza virus subtypes, particularly in combination with 627K.
The Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus （MERS-CoV） is a novel zoonotic pathogen. In 2012, the infectious outbreak caused by MERS-CoV in Saudi Arabia has spread to more than 1600 patients in ...26 countries, resulting in over 600 deaths. Without a travel history, few clinical and radiological features can reliably differentiate MERS from SARS. But in real world, comparing with SARS, MERS presents more vaguely defined epidemiology, more severe symptoms, and higher case fatality rate. In this review, we summarize the recent findings in the field of MERS-CoV, especially its molecular virology, interspecies mechanisms, clinical features, antiviral therapies, and the further investigation into this disease. As a newly emerging virus, many questions are not fully answered, including the exact mode of transmission chain, geographical distribution, and animal origins. Furthermore, a new protocol needs to be launched to rapidly evaluate the effects of unproven antiviral drugs and vaccine to fasten the clinical application of new drugs.
•The global influenza vaccination rates (IVRs) were overall low, especially in the general population.•Compared to middle-income, IVRs were higher in high-income countries/regions.•Compared to the ...other period, IVRs increased during the COVID-19 pandemic.•Free vaccination policies was the positive factor for the higher IVR.
Influenza vaccination is an effective method for preventing influenza virus infection. Herein, we performed a meta-analysis to quantify global influenza vaccination rates (IVRs) and the factors influencing its uptake in the general population, individuals with chronic diseases, pregnant women, and healthcare workers.
Related articles were obtained from online databases and screened according to the inclusion criteria. The pooled IVRs were calculated using the random effects model. Subgroup analyses and multivariate meta-regression were performed to determine the factors associated with influenza vaccine uptake.
We included 522 studies from 68 countries/regions. Most studies were conducted in the European region (247 studies), followed by the Western Pacific (135 studies) and American regions (100 studies). The IVRs with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) in the general population were lower (24.96%, 23.45%-26.50%) than in individuals with chronic diseases (41.65%, 40.08%-43.23%), healthcare workers (36.57%, 33.74%-39.44%), and pregnant women (25.92%, 23.18%-28.75%). The IVRs in high-income countries/regions were significantly higher than that in middle-income countries/regions. A free national or regional vaccination policy, perception of influenza vaccine efficacy and disease severity, a recommendation from healthcare workers, and having a history of influenza vaccination were positive factors for vaccine uptake (P <0.01).
Overall, global IVRs were low, especially in the general population. The studies on the IVRs, especially for priority populations, should be strengthened in Eastern Mediterranean, South-East Asian, and African regions. Free vaccination policies and the dissemination of continuous awareness campaigns are effective measures to enhance vaccination uptake.
Chronic hepatitis B has become a major public health problem in China. An accurate depiction of the disease burden has not yet been thoroughly conducted. We aimed to project the disease burden of ...chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection and related complications by modeling various scenarios.
An individual-based Markov model was used to predict disease burden from 2006 through 2050. We simulated 5 scenarios with different annual incidences, diagnoses and nucleotide analog (NA) treatment rates as well as treatment eligibility, which included a natural history without diagnosis or NA therapy, a base case, a World Health Organization (WHO)-proposed target case and two ideal cases.
The natural history scenario is projected to have the fewest HBsAg losses (27.59 million) and highest number of HBV-related deaths (27.19 million). With improved diagnosis and treatment rates of NA therapy, ideal cases have fewer HBV-related deaths (14.46-14.77 million) than do WHO-proposed cases (15.13 million) and base cases (16.89 million), but the proportion of HBsAg loss is similar among them. With a reduction in new infections, the prevalence of chronic HBV in 2050 is expected to be a minimum of 27.03-27.49 million under WHO and ideal cases.
Ideal scenarios 1 and 2 contribute to the lowest disease burden of HBV and its complications in the future, in which new infection control is more effective than increasing diagnosis, treatment rate and treatment eligibility. However, considering the large existing chronic HBV infected population and the low HBsAg loss rate of NA therapy, it is still difficult to avert the increasing trend of cumulative cirrhosis, DC, HCC, LT, and HBV-related death in all scenarios. If new high-potency drugs are not developed, the disease burden of chronic HBV will remain high in the future.
•To provide a quantified understanding of the proportion of asymptomatic individuals among cases with COVID-19 infection.•To describe the specific population that is asymptomatic.•Findings could help ...to develop prevention and control strategies for asymptomatic individuals.
The role of asymptomatic infections in the transmission of COVID-19 have drawn considerable attention. Here, we performed a meta-analysis to summarize the epidemiological and radiographical characteristics of asymptomatic infections associated with COVID-19.
Data on the epidemiological and radiographical characteristics of asymptomatic infections were extracted from the existing literature. Pooled proportions with 95% confidence intervals were then calculated using a random effects model.
A total of 104 studies involving 20,152 cases were included. The proportion of asymptomatic individuals among those with COVID-19 was 13.34% (10.86%–16.29%), among which presymptomatic and covert infections accounted for 7.64% (4.02%–14.04%) and 8.44% (5.12%–13.62%), respectively. The proportions of asymptomatic infections among infected children and healthcare workers were 32.24% (23.08%–42.13%) and 36.96% (18.51%–60.21%), respectively. The proportion of asymptomatic infections was significantly higher after 2020/02/29 than before (33.53% vs 10.19%) and in non-Asian regions than in Asia (28.76% vs 11.54%). The median viral shedding duration of asymptomatic infections was 14.14 days (11.25–17.04). A total of 47.62% (31.13%–72.87%) of asymptomatic infections showed lung abnormalities, especially ground-glass opacity (41.11% 19.7%–85.79%).
Asymptomatic infections were more commonly found in infected children and healthcare workers and increased after 2020/02/29 and in non-Asian regions. Chest radiographical imaging could be conducive to the early identification of asymptomatic infections.
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