The COVID-19 pandemic and influenza outbreaks have underscored the critical need for predictive models that can effectively integrate spatial and temporal dynamics to enable accurate epidemic ...forecasting. Traditional time-series analysis approaches have fallen short in capturing the intricate interplay between these factors. Recent advancements have witnessed the incorporation of graph neural networks and machine learning techniques to bridge this gap, enhancing predictive accuracy and providing novel insights into disease spread mechanisms. Notable endeavors include leveraging human mobility data, employing transfer learning, and integrating advanced models such as Transformers and Graph Convolutional Networks (GCNs) to improve forecasting performance across diverse geographies for both influenza and COVID-19. However, these models often face challenges related to data quality, model transferability, and potential overfitting, highlighting the necessity for more adaptable and robust approaches. This paper introduces the Graph Attention-based Spatial Temporal (GAST) model, which employs graph attention networks (GATs) to overcome these limitations by providing a nuanced understanding of epidemic dynamics through a sophisticated spatio-temporal analysis framework. Our contributions include the development and validation of the GAST model, demonstrating its superior forecasting capabilities for influenza and COVID-19 spread, with a particular focus on short-term, daily predictions. The model’s application to both influenza and COVID-19 datasets showcases its versatility and potential to inform public health interventions across a range of infectious diseases.
Maternal diet is critical to fetal development. This study aimed to explore the association between maternal dietary diversity during pregnancy and congenital heart defects (CHD) in Chinese ...population.
A hospital-based case-control study was conducted including 474 cases and 948 controls in Northwest China. We recruited eligible women waiting for delivery in the hospital and gathered their diets during the whole pregnancy by a validated food frequency questionnaire. According to the FAO Minimum Dietary Diversity for Women (MDD-W) guideline, the participants were categorized into "inadequate dietary diversity score (DDS)" (DDS < 5) and "adequate DDS" (DDS ≥ 5) groups. The association between dietary diversity and CHD was estimated using the mixed logistic regression models.
Case mothers had a lower DDS during pregnancy than the controls (P < 0.001). The proportions of women consuming all the ten defined food groups were lower in the inadequate DDS group than in the adequate DDS group among both cases and controls (all P < 0.001). The prevalence of inadequate micronutrient intake was higher in the inadequate DDS group than in the adequate DDS group among both cases and controls (all P < 0.05). Women in the adequate DDS group had reduced risks of having fetuses with total CHD (OR = 0.62, 95% CI = 0.45-0.84) and ventricular septal defects (OR = 0.58, 95% CI = 0.38-0.88).
Adequate DDS during pregnancy might be associated with a lower risk of CHD in offspring. Efforts to promote dietary diversity during pregnancy need to be strengthened to reduce the prevalence of CHD in Chinese population.
Limited knowledge on the magnitude of neonatal mortality and associated factors is hampering early intervention in African countries.
To determine neonatal mortality and associated factors in the ...Specialized Neonatal Care Unit Asmara, Eritrea.
Medical records of all neonates admitted to the Specialized Neonatal Care Unit in 2016 were reviewed using a cross-sectional study. The most important causes of admission and mortality were analyzed. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to evaluate the strength of risk factors associated with neonatal mortality. Variables significant at P < 0.20 level in the univariate analysis were retained in the multivariate model. Model fit was evaluated using Hosmer and Lemeshow test (Chi-square = 12.89, df = 8; P = 0.116), implies the model's estimates fit the data at an acceptable level. Collinearity was assessed using variance inflation factor (VIF) < 4. P-value < 0.05 was considered statistically significant.
Of the 1204 (59.9% boys and 40.1% girls) neonates admitted in 2016, 79 (65.6/1000 live births) died. The major causes of admission were sepsis (35.5%), respiratory distress syndrome (15.4%) and perinatal asphyxia (10%). Major causes of death were respiratory distress syndrome (48.1%); extremely low birth weight (40.9%) and very low birth weight (30.5%). After adjustment, low birth weight (Adjusted odds ratio (AOR) = 4.55, 95% CI,1.97-10.50), very low birth weight (AOR = 19.24, 95% CI, 5.80-63.78), late admission (24 h after diagnosis) (AOR = 2.96, 95% CI, 1.34-6.52), apgar score (in 1 min AOR = 2.28, 95% CI, 1.09-4.76, in 5 min AOR = 2.07, 95% CI, 1.02-4.22), and congenital abnormalities (AOR = 3.95, 95% CI, 1.59-9.85) were significantly associated with neonatal mortality. Neonates that stayed > 24 h in the Specialized Neonatal Care Unit (AOR = 0.23, 95% CI, 0.11-0.46) had a lower likelihood of death. Overall 95.8% of mothers of neonates attended antenatal care and 96.6% were facility delivered. None of the maternal conditions were associated with neonatal mortality in this study.
Low birth weight, late admission, low apgar scores and congenital abnormalities were significantly associated with neonatal mortality in the Specialized Neonatal Care Unit. Early management of low birth weight, preterm births, and neonatal complications should be the priority issues for controlling local neonatal deaths.
Risk factors associated with chronic otitis media (COM) and recurrent otitis media (ROM) have been investigated in previous studies. The objective of this study was to integrate the findings and ...determine the possible risk factors for COM/ROM based on our meta-analysis. A comprehensive search of electronic bibliographic databases (PubMed, Embase, CNKI and Wanfang database) from 1964 to Dec 2012, as well as a manual search of references of articles, was performed. A total of 2971 articles were searched, and 198 full-text articles were assessed for eligibility; 24 studies were eligible for this meta-analysis. Regarding risk factors for COM/ROM, there were two to nine different studies from which the odds ratios (ORs) could be pooled. The presence of allergy or atopy increased the risk of COM/ROM (OR, 1.36; 95% CI, 1.13-1.64; P = 0.001). An upper respiratory tract infection (URTI) significantly increased the risk of COM/ROM (OR, 6.59; 95% CI, 3.13-13.89; P<0.00001). Snoring appeared to be a significant risk factor for COM/ROM (OR, 1.96; 95% CI, 1.78-2.16; P<0.00001). A patient history of acute otitis media (AOM)/ROM increased the risk of COM/ROM (OR, 11.13; 95% CI, 1.06-116.44; P = 0.04). Passive smoke significantly increased the risk of COM/ROM (OR, 1.39; 95% CI, 1.02-1.89 P = 0.04). Low social status appeared to be a risk factor for COM/ROM (OR, 3.82; 95% CI, 1.11-13.15; P = 0.03). Our meta-analysis identified reliable conclusions that allergy/atopy, URTI, snoring, previous history of AOM/ROM, Second-hand smoke and low social status are important risk factors for COM/ROM. Other unidentified risk factors need to be identified in further studies with critical criteria.
The relationship between parental age at pregnancy and offspring development in low- and middle-income countries remains unclear. We aimed to examine the associations of parental age at pregnancy ...with adolescent development in rural China.
We conducted a prospective birth cohort study of offspring born to pregnant women who participated in an antenatal micronutrient supplementation trial in rural Western China. Adolescent cognitive development and emotional and behavioural problems were assessed by using the Wechsler Intelligence Scale for Children-IV and the Youth Self-Report-2001, respectively. After accounting for the possible nonlinear relationships, we examined the linear associations between parental age (in years) at pregnancy and scores of adolescent cognitive development and emotional and behavioural problems by performing generalized estimating equations.
Among 1897 adolescents followed from birth to early adolescence, 59.5% were male with a mean age of 11.8 (standard deviation (SD): 0.8) years. The mean ages of mothers and fathers at pregnancy were 24.6 (SD: 4.4) and 27.9 (SD: 4.1) years old, respectively. All the P values of the nonlinear terms between parental age and adolescent development in all domains were greater than 0.05. Each one-year increase in maternal age at pregnancy was associated with a 0.29-point (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.06, 0.52) increase in the full-scale intelligence quotient in early adolescence. After parental age was categorized into quartiles, the total behavioural problem scores of adolescents with fathers with an age in the fourth quartile (Q4) were 6.71 (95% CI 0.86, 12.57) points higher than those of adolescents with fathers with an age in the first quartile (Q1), with a linear trend P value of 0.01. Similarly, higher scores (worse behavioural problems) were observed for internalizing behavioural problems and other emotional and behavioural symptoms related to anxiety, withdrawal, social problems, thought problems and aggressive behaviour.
At conception, older maternal age was independently linked to better adolescent cognitive development, whereas advanced paternal age was independently associated with a greater risk of adolescent emotional and behavioral problems. These findings suggest that public health policies targeting an optimal parental age at pregnancy should be developed in the context of offspring developmental consequences.
There are still inconsistent conclusions about the association of prenatal alcohol drinking with congenital heart defects (CHDs). We conducted this meta-analysis to investigate the association ...between prenatal alcohol exposure and the risk of overall CHDs and the CHDs subtypes.
Case-control and cohort studies published before March 2015 were searched through PubMed and Embase. Two authors independently extracted data and scored the study quality according to the Newcastle-0ttawa Scale. The pooled ORs and 95%CI were estimated using the random-effects model and heterogeneity was assessed by the Q test and I2 statistic.
A total of 20 studies were finally included. The results provided no evidence of the association between prenatal alcohol exposure and the risk of overall CHDs (OR = 1.06, 95%CI = 0.93-1.22), ventricular septal defects (VSDs) (OR = 1.04, 95%CI = 0.86-1.25), or atrial septal defects (ASDs) (OR = 1.40, 95%CI = 0.88-2.23). However, prenatal alcohol drinking was marginally significantly associated with conotruncal defects (CTDs) (OR = 1.24, 95%CI = 0.97-1.59) and statistically significantly associated with d-Transposition of the Great Arteries (dTGA) (OR = 1.64, 95%CI = 1.17-2.30). Moreover, both prenatal heavy drinking and binge drinking have a strong association with overall CHDs (heavy drinking: OR = 3.76, 95%CI = 1.00-14.10; binge drinking: OR = 2.49, 95%CI = 1.04-5.97), and prenatal moderate drinking has a modest association with CTDs (OR = 1.35, 95%CI = 1.05-1.75) and dTGA (OR = 1.86, 95%CI = 1.09-3.20).
In conclusion, the results suggested that prenatal alcohol exposure was not associated with overall CHDs or some subtypes, whereas marginally significant association was found for CTDs and statistically significant association was found for dTGA. Further prospective studies with large population and better designs are needed to explore the association of prenatal alcohol exposure with CHDs including the subtypes in specific groups.
Low- and middle-income countries continue to experience a large burden of stunting; 148 million children were estimated to be stunted, around 30-40% of all children in 2011. In many of these ...countries, foetal growth restriction (FGR) is common, as is subsequent growth faltering in the first 2 years. Although there is agreement that stunting involves both prenatal and postnatal growth failure, the extent to which FGR contributes to stunting and other indicators of nutritional status is uncertain.
Using extant longitudinal birth cohorts (n=19) with data on birthweight, gestational age and child anthropometry (12-60 months), we estimated study-specific and pooled risk estimates of stunting, wasting and underweight by small-for-gestational age (SGA) and preterm birth.
We grouped children according to four combinations of SGA and gestational age: adequate size-for-gestational age (AGA) and preterm; SGA and term; SGA and preterm; and AGA and term (the reference group). Relative to AGA and term, the OR (95% confidence interval) for stunting associated with AGA and preterm, SGA and term, and SGA and preterm was 1.93 (1.71, 2.18), 2.43 (2.22, 2.66) and 4.51 (3.42, 5.93), respectively. A similar magnitude of risk was also observed for wasting and underweight. Low birthweight was associated with 2.5-3.5-fold higher odds of wasting, stunting and underweight. The population attributable risk for overall SGA for outcomes of childhood stunting and wasting was 20% and 30%, respectively.
This analysis estimates that childhood undernutrition may have its origins in the foetal period, suggesting a need to intervene early, ideally during pregnancy, with interventions known to reduce FGR and preterm birth.
To determine the impact of iron deficiency anemia (IDA) in pregnancy on young child development.
A 2-year follow-up of 850 children born to women who participated in a double-blind cluster randomized ...controlled trial of prenatal micronutrient supplementation in western rural China. These women were randomly assigned to receive either daily folic acid, iron/folic acid (60 mg iron), or multiple micronutrients (with 30 mg iron) during pregnancy. Children were categorized into the prenatal-IDA and prenatal-non-IDA groups based on the mother's hemoglobin in the third trimester. Each group contained 3 subgroups based on mother's treatment: folic acid, iron/folic acid, and multiple micronutrients. Bayley scales of infant development were administered to the children to assess their development at 3, 6, 12, 18, and 24 months of age.
Compared with the prenatal-non-IDA group, the prenatal-IDA group showed a significantly lower mental development index at 12, 18, and 24 months of age. The adjusted mean difference was 5.8 (95% confidence interval CI, 1.1-10.5), 5.1 (95% CI, 1.2-9.0), and 5.3 (95% CI, 0.9-9.7), respectively. Further analysis showed that the mental development indexes in the prenatal-IDA group and prenatal-non-IDA group were similar with supplementation of iron/folic acid but were significantly lower in the prenatal-IDA group with supplementation of folic acid or multiple micronutrients.
Prenatal IDA in the third trimester is associated with mental development of the child. However, prenatal supplementation with sufficient iron protects child development even when the woman's IDA was not properly corrected in pregnancy.
Antenatal care (ANC) is a recommended intervention to lessen maternal and neonatal mortality. The increased rate in ANC coverage in most Sub-Saharan African countries is not considerably reducing the ...maternal and neonatal mortality. This disconnection has raised concerns to study further the trend and determinants of the ANC timing and quality. We aimed to assess the determinants and trend of the timing, the adequacy and the quality of antenatal care in Rwanda.
A population-based cross-sectional study design. We used data from the 2010,2015 and 2020 Rwanda demographic and health surveys (RDHS). The study included 18,034 women aged 15-49 years. High quality ANC is when a woman had her first ANC visit within 3 months of pregnancy, had 4 or more ANC visits, received services components of ANC during the visits by a skilled provider. Bivariate analysis and multivariable logistic regression were used to assess the ANC (timing and adequacy), the quality of the content of ANC services and the associated factors.
The uptake of antenatal services increased in the last 15 years. For instance, the uptake of adequate ANC was 2219(36.16%), 2607(44.37%) and 2925(48.58%) respectively for 2010;2015 and 2020 RDHS. The uptake of high quality ANC from 205(3.48%) in 2010 through 510(9.47%) in 2015 to 779(14.99%) in 2020. Women with unwanted pregnancies were less likely to have timely first ANC (aOR:0.76;95%CI:0.68,0.85) compared to planned pregnancies, they were also less likely to achieve a high-quality ANC (aOR: 0.65;95%CI:0.51,0.82) compared to the planned pregnancies. Mothers with a secondary and higher education were 1.5 more likely to achieve a high-quality ANC (aOR:1.50;95%CI:1.15,1.96) compared to uneducated mothers. Increasing maternal age is associated with reduced odds of update of ANC component services (aOR:0.44;95%CI:0.25,0.77) for 40 years and above when referred to teen mothers).
Low-educated mothers, advanced maternal age, and unintended pregnancies are the vulnerable groups that need to be targeted in order to improve ANC-related indicators. One of the credible measures to close the gap is to strengthen health education, promote family planning, and promote service utilization.
Since December 2019, the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has spread quickly among the population and brought a severe global impact. However, considerable geographical disparities in the ...distribution of COVID-19 incidence existed among different cities. In this study, we aimed to explore the effect of sociodemographic factors on COVID-19 incidence of 342 cities in China from a geographic perspective.
Official surveillance data about the COVID-19 and sociodemographic information in China's 342 cities were collected. Local geographically weighted Poisson regression (GWPR) model and traditional generalized linear models (GLM) Poisson regression model were compared for optimal analysis.
Compared to that of the GLM Poisson regression model, a significantly lower corrected Akaike Information Criteria (AICc) was reported in the GWPR model (61953.0 in GLM vs. 43218.9 in GWPR). Spatial auto-correlation of residuals was not found in the GWPR model (global Moran's I = - 0.005, p = 0.468), inferring the capture of the spatial auto-correlation by the GWPR model. Cities with a higher gross domestic product (GDP), limited health resources, and shorter distance to Wuhan, were at a higher risk for COVID-19. Furthermore, with the exception of some southeastern cities, as population density increased, the incidence of COVID-19 decreased.
There are potential effects of the sociodemographic factors on the COVID-19 incidence. Moreover, our findings and methodology could guide other countries by helping them understand the local transmission of COVID-19 and developing a tailored country-specific intervention strategy.
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