Summary
Multi‐compartment models have been playing a central role in modelling infectious disease dynamics since the early 20th century. They are a class of mathematical models widely used for ...describing the mechanism of an evolving epidemic. Integrated with certain sampling schemes, such mechanistic models can be applied to analyse public health surveillance data, such as assessing the effectiveness of preventive measures (e.g. social distancing and quarantine) and forecasting disease spread patterns. This review begins with a nationwide macromechanistic model and related statistical analyses, including model specification, estimation, inference and prediction. Then, it presents a community‐level micromodel that enables high‐resolution analyses of regional surveillance data to provide current and future risk information useful for local government and residents to make decisions on reopenings of local business and personal travels. r software and scripts are provided whenever appropriate to illustrate the numerical detail of algorithms and calculations. The coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic surveillance data from the state of Michigan are used for the illustration throughout this paper.
This article develops an incremental learning algorithm based on quadratic inference function (QIF) to analyze streaming datasets with correlated outcomes such as longitudinal data and clustered ...data. We propose a renewable QIF (RenewQIF) method within a paradigm of renewable estimation and incremental inference, in which parameter estimates are recursively renewed with current data and summary statistics of historical data, but with no use of any historical subject-level raw data. We compare our renewable estimation method with both offline QIF and offline generalized estimating equations (GEE) approach that process the entire cumulative subject-level data all together, and show theoretically and numerically that our renewable procedure enjoys statistical and computational efficiency. We also propose an approach to diagnose the homogeneity assumption of regression coefficients via a sequential goodness-of-fit test as a screening procedure on occurrences of abnormal data batches. We implement the proposed methodology by expanding existing Spark's Lambda architecture for the operation of statistical inference and data quality diagnosis. We illustrate the proposed methodology by extensive simulation studies and an analysis of streaming car crash datasets from the National Automotive Sampling System-Crashworthiness Data System (NASS CDS).
Supplementary materials
for this article are available online.
The purpose of this study was to identify individual and residency program factors associated with increased suicide risk, as measured by suicidal ideation. We utilized a prospective, longitudinal ...cohort study design to assess the prevalence and predictors of suicidal ideation in 6,691 (2012-2014 cohorts, training data set) and 4,904 (2015 cohort, test data set) first-year training physicians (interns) at hospital systems across the United States. We assessed suicidal ideation two months before internship and then quarterly through intern year. The prevalence of reported suicidal ideation in the study population increased from 3.0% at baseline to a mean of 6.9% during internship. 16.4% of interns reported suicidal ideation at least once during their internship. In the training dataset, a series of baseline demographic (male gender) and psychological factors (high neuroticism, depressive symptoms and suicidal ideation) were associated with increased risk of suicidal ideation during internship. Further, prior quarter psychiatric symptoms (depressive symptoms and suicidal ideation) and concurrent work-related factors (increase in self-reported work hours and medical errors) were associated with increased risk of suicidal ideation. A model derived from the training dataset had a predicted area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.83 in the test dataset. The suicidal ideation risk predictors analyzed in this study can help programs and interns identify those at risk for suicidal ideation before the onset of training. Further, increases in self-reported work hours and environments associated with increased medical errors are potentially modifiable factors for residency programs to target to reduce suicide risk.
In the present work, an Al metallic coating and an Al/Cu bimetallic coating were prepared on the surface of a carbon fiber-reinforced polymer matrix composite (PMC) using a cold spray system with ...nitrogen as process and powder carrier gas. The microstructure, microhardness, and bond strength of the resultant coatings are analyzed. The bonding mechanism of the coatings, especially the deposition behavior of the Al particles on the PMC surface is discussed. Results had shown that cold spraying enables the deposition of the metallic and bimetallic coatings directly onto the PMC surface with precise process control and reasonable bonding of feedstock and substrate material. The surface metallization of PMC via cold spraying process presents promising application prospects.
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► An Al coating first prepared on the surface of a PMC by cold spray. ► Then an Al/Cu bimetallic coating was prepared. ► The microstructure and related properties of the coatings were analyzed. ► The deposition behaviors of the Al particles on the PMC surface were discussed. ► Results implicate the feasibility and potential application of the technology.
Purpose
The aim of the study was to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of capecitabine plus bevacizumab compared with capecitabine alone in elderly patients with metastatic colorectal cancer (CRC) from ...a Chinese societal perspective.
Methods
A decision-analytic Markov model was conducted to simulate the process of metastatic CRC. Three distinct health states: progression-free survival (PFS), progressive disease and death were included. Clinical data were derived from the AVEX trial. Health effectiveness was denoted in quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and health utilities were derived from previously published studies. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was regarded as the primary endpoint and willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold was set at $26,753.37/QALY (3 × per capita GDP of China, 2017). One-way sensitivity analyses and probabilistic sensitivity analysis were also performed to explore the parameters uncertainty in the study.
Results
Over a 10-year life horizon, capecitabine plus bevacizumab gained 1.14 QALYs at an average cost of $21,609.48, while the effectiveness and cost of capecitabine group were 0.99 QALYs and $7274.83, respectively. The ICER between the two groups was $95,564.33/QALY. Parameters that mostly influenced the results of the model were utility of PFS state, duration of PFS state for capecitabine plus bevacizumab, total cost of PFS state for capecitabine plus bevacizumab and price of bevacizumab. The probabilities of capecitabine plus bevacizumab and capecitabine as the dominant option were 0% and 100% at the WTP threshold of $26,753.37/QALY.
Conclusions
The results of the study showed that capecitabine plus bevacizumab is unlikely to be a cost-effective treatment option for elderly patients with metastatic CRC.
Genetic determinism of prickles in rose Zhou, N. N.; Tang, K. X.; Jeauffre, J. ...
Theoretical and applied genetics,
11/2020, Volume:
133, Issue:
11
Journal Article
Peer reviewed
Open access
Key message
The genetic determinism of prickle in rose is complex, with a major locus on LG3 that controls the absence/presence of prickles on the rose stem.
Rose is one of the major ornamental ...plants. The selection of glabrous cultivars is an important breeding target but remains a difficult task due to our limited genetic knowledge. Our objective was to understand the genetic and molecular determinism of prickles. Using a segregating diploid rose F
1
population, we detected two types of prickles (glandular and non-glandular) in the progeny. We scored the number of non-glandular prickles on the floral and main stems for three years. We performed QTL analysis and detected four prickle loci on LG1, 3, 4 and 6. We determined the credible interval on the reference genome. The QTL on LG3 is a major locus that controls the presence of prickles, and three QTLs (LG3, 4 and 1) may be responsible for prickle density. We further revealed that glabrous hybrids are caused by the combination of the two recessive alleles from both parents. In order to test whether rose prickles could originate from a ‘trichome-like structure,’ we used a candidate approach to characterize rose gene homologues known in Arabidopsis, involved in trichome initiation. Four of these homologues were located within the overlapping credible interval of the detected QTLs. Transcript accumulation analysis weakly supports the involvement of trichome homologous genes, in the molecular control of prickle initiation. Our studies provide strong evidence for a complex genetic determinism of stem prickle and could help to establish guidelines for glabrous rose breeding. New insights into the relationship between prickles and trichomes constitute valuable information for reverse genetic research on prickles.
Major alterations in metabolism occur during pregnancy enabling the mother to provide adequate nutrients to support infant development, affecting birth weight (BW) and potentially long-term risk of ...obesity and cardiometabolic disease. We classified dynamic changes in the maternal lipidome during pregnancy and identified lipids associated with Fenton BW z-score and the umbilical cord blood (CB) lipidome. Lipidomics was performed on first trimester maternal plasma (M1), delivery maternal plasma (M3), and CB plasma in 106 mother-infant dyads. Shifts in the maternal and CB lipidome were consistent with the selective transport of long-chain polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFA) as well as lysophosphatidylcholine (LysoPC) and lysophosphatidylethanolamine (LysoPE) species into CB. Partial correlation networks demonstrated fluctuations in correlations between lipid groups at M1, M3, and CB, signifying differences in lipid metabolism. Using linear models, LysoPC and LysoPE groups in CB were positively associated with BW. M1 PUFA containing triglycerides (TG) and phospholipids were correlated with CB LysoPC and LysoPE species and total CB polyunsaturated TGs. These results indicate that early gestational maternal lipid levels influence the CB lipidome and its relationship with BW, suggesting an opportunity to modulate maternal diet and improve long-term offspring cardiometabolic health.
Plants under low temperature (LT) stress exhibit a C-repeat binding factor (CBF)-dependent responsive pathway. The transcription factors in the CBF family, existing in multiple plant species, are the ...key regulators of the cold-responsive (COR) genes. CBF1 and CBF3 are regulated in a different way from CBF2, and CBF4 is the only known CBF gene definitely involved in abscisic acid (ABA)-dependent signaling pathways. RAP2.1 and RAP2.6 are the downstream regulators under CBFs. The upstream regulators of the CBF named inducer of CBF expression (ICE) acts as a positive regulator of CBFs. Meanwhile, these CBF signaling pathway components could associate with many other transcription activators and repressors in regulating gene expression when plants are under LT stress. HOS1 negatively regulates ICE1, which down regulates MYB15, an upstream repressor of CBFs. ZAT12 participates in the repression of CBFs, while ZAT10 and FRY2 negatively regulate the CBF-target genes. ADF5 was recently also found to repress CBFs. LOS2 works against ZAT10, and LOS4 positively regulates CBFs. SFR6 is involved in the modification of CBFs to activate the COR genes, and SIZ1-dependent sumoylation plays a positive role in the regulation of ICE1. The utilization of CBF-dependent signaling components has a broad perspective in the field of plant breeding for enhancing crop LT tolerance.
The moiré-pattern with slightly interlayer-twisted bilayer two-dimensional (2D) materials has recently been receiving substantial attention. One of the major characters for these intriguing ...structures is the appearance of low-energy ultra-flat bands and thus a package of new physics associated with strong electron correlation emerges. However, such new physics may become vague unless the twist-angle θ is sufficiently small such as θ ∼ 1°, making practical applications and control-flexibility hard to handle. In this work, we explore the possible flat-band moiré physics in recently concerned 2D bilayer α-In2Se3 which is antiferroelectric with sublayer out-of-plane (OP) polarizations, addressing the potential role of polarization-bound charges in modulation of electron–electron correlation and interlayer hybridization, based on the extensive first-principles calculations. On one hand, it is found that the low energy band becomes extremely flat in the bilayer α-In2Se3 moiré-pattern with relatively large twist-angle, e.g. θ = 13.17°, which is more easily accessible experimentally. On the other hand, the impact of the sublayer OP polarizations on the band structure is asymmetric, and the flattening effect is much more remarkable for the end-to-end polarization alignment but weaker for the head-to-head alignment. This work thus opens a broad roadmap for technological access to artificial fabrication of novel moiré-patterned 2D materials by means of low-dimensional ferroelectricity.
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