We develop an equilibrium theory of trade agreements in which both the
degree and the
nature (bilateral or multilateral) of trade liberalization are endogenously determined. To determine whether and ...how bilateralism matters, we also analyze a scenario where countries pursue trade liberalization on only a multilateral basis. We find that when countries have asymmetric endowments or when governments value producer interests more than tariff revenue and consumer surplus, there exist circumstances where global free trade is a stable equilibrium only if countries are free to pursue bilateral trade agreements. By contrast, under symmetry, both bilateralism and multilateralism yield global free trade.
A new approach is needed to tackle the climate crisis, in which the long overlooked supply-side of fossil fuels takes centre stage. A crucial aspect of this is the need for international agreements ...and law to effectively and fairly leave large swathes of remaining fossil fuels in the ground. Towards that end, we make the case for a Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty (FF-NPT) to deal with emissions at source. Having explained the need for such a treaty, we propose overall aims, and both a process and principles for the sequencing of efforts across fuel types and regions based on equity and justice. We discuss the form an FF-NPT could take, as well as some of the key challenges it would have to overcome. We suggest strategies for overcoming key challenges in relation to reserves in developing countries, questions of the just transition, and incentives for countries to sign up to such a treaty.
Key policy insights
The supply-side of fossil fuels should occupy a central place in collective efforts to address climate change.
A proposed new Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty (FF-NPT) could help to keep large swathes of fossil fuels in the ground, effectively and fairly.
A process towards this end could start with an assessment of existing reserves, as well as agreement on the principles for the sequencing of production phase-down targets across countries and fuel types, with the aim of aligning fossil fuel use with the Paris Agreement's 1.5°C warming threshold.
Strategies to advance the proposed FF-NPT will have to recognize current and historical exploitation of fossil fuel reserves, provide alternative ways of meeting the development needs of the poorest countries without fossil fuels, and include credible systems of monitoring and compliance to induce trust and cooperation.
Background: Body composition is an important metric for evaluating metabolic health. The InBody (IB) 720 and the portable and more affordable InBody 230 (InBody, Seoul, South Korea) are ...multifrequency bioelectrical impedance analysis (BIA) devices used to estimate body composition. The gold standard for estimating lean mass and fat mass is dual-energy X-ray absorption (DXA), and the gold standard for body water is isotope dilution with deuterium oxide (D2O). However, the gold standards are more expensive and require technically-trained personnel. Hence, we set out to see if BIA devices can match the standards. Methods: Forty-five women (21.56±2.82 years; BMI 26.71±6.39; 27.6% Caucasian) were evaluated using the IB720, IB230, DXA, and D2O for total body water (TBW), lean body mass (LBM), and total fat mass (TFM). Validity and agreement were determined by correlation statistics and Bland-Altman plots of differences between measures versus mean. Results: Both LBM and TFM were strongly correlated between the BIA devices and DXA, as were TBW measures by D2O and the BIA devices (r>0.90, p<0.05 for all). Bland-Altman plots indicated that TBW measures by both BIA devices and D2O were in agreement, while LBM and TFM measures by both BIA devices and DXA were not in agreement. Conclusions: Our findings suggest that the IB720 and IB230 can be used in place of D2O method to measure TBW; however, they cannot be used in place of DXA for fat mass and regional lean mass. The IB720 and IB230 were in agreement and can be used interchangeably for TBW and TFM.
Background: Body composition provides important information about individual risk for chronic disease. Dual Energy X-ray Absorptiometry (DXA) and isotopic dilution technique using deuterium oxide ...(D2O) are widely accepted as the gold standard methods for estimating total fat mass and total body water (TBW), respectively. Both methods are expensive and require trained personnel for execution. Bioelectrical impedance analyzers (BIAs) like InBody 770 (IB770) which use a low-frequency electrical current to estimate total body water, regional and total body fat and lean mass. The objective of this study was to test and report the validity of research grade BIA, the IB770 body composition measures against the cold standard techniques. Methods: Fifty-five women (21.1±2.6 years, BMI: 25.8±5.5 kg/m2, 40% African American) were evaluated using IB770, DXA, and D2O. Measures of TBW, regional (arms, trunk, and legs) and total fat masses (TFM), and regional and total lean body masses (LBM) were calculated. Correlation analysis was used to verify body composition measures between devices. Agreement was determined by examining relationships between the differences in and averaged body composition measured on each method. Results: TBW measured by the IB770 and D2O were correlated (p=0.97; p<0.001). We also found positive correlations for measurements of LBM (p=0.97; p<0.001), TFM (p=0.99; p<0.001), regional fat mass of arms (p=0.95; p<0.001), legs (p=0.91; p<0.001), and trunk (p=0.98; p<0.001) when measured by IB770 and DXA. Arms, trunk, and legs lean masses measured by IB770 and DXA were not associated (p>0.05). The lack of a significant relationship between the difference and average TBW measured by IB770 and D20 (p=-0.07; p=0.608) indicates a good agreement between the two. The relationship between the difference and average total lean body mass (p=0.13; p=0.348) and trunk fat mass (p =0.01; p=0.935) did not differ using IB770 and DXA, indicating that these are devices are in agreement. Significant differences were found in the relationship between the difference and average for total, arms and legs fat masses measured by IB770 and DXA, showing that these are devices are not in agreement for these body composition measures. Conclusions: IB770 showed agreement with D2O and can be used interchangeably for TBW. IB770 can also be used in place of DXA for lean body mass and trunk fat mass.
Since the 2010s the EU has expanded its preferential trade agreements, responding to challenges at the World Trade Organization and preferential trade agreements of key geoeconomic competitors. ...However, preferential trade agreements are only as good as their implementation. The EU 2021 Trade Policy Review for a more assertive trade policy includes a greater focus on preferential trade agreement implementation. An analysis of preferential trade agreement implementation reports identifies challenges in operationalising these. It shows that since 2019 there has been an increase in EU recourse to formal dispute settlement mechanisms under preferential trade agreements demonstrating the shift to greater assertiveness. Interestingly, most of the cases are of limited economic significance to the EU but serve to reinforce the message of enforcement of trade rules.
Abstract
Introduction
Inter-scorer variability is a challenge in sleep medicine. The inter-scorer reliability (ISR) program aids clinicians in assessment of inter-scorer variability and ...accreditation. Leave-one-out-cross-validation (LOOCV) is a powerful technique borrowed from machine learning for evaluating how well a statistical analysis will generalize to an independent dataset. In the present study, we adapt the LOOCV approach to ISR analysis, proposing a novel application of the methodology, whereby we introduce the concept of overfitting in the sleep scoring context and characterize its impact on ISR assessment reproducibility.
Methods
A cohort (N=72) was selected using stratified sampling with proportionate allocation to control for sleep apnea severity, medical conditions, medications, and demographic factors. The cohort was scored by four independent sleep technologists (RPSGT). ISR was assessed using epoch-by-epoch agreement for sleep stages, respiratory, arousal, and movement events under two LOOCV settings. First, average agreement was calculated with each clinician as the designated reference scorer (DRS) compared to each of the three “held out” clinicians. Second, average agreement was calculated by constructing a DRS based on events that a 2/3 majority of clinicians agree with compared to the fourth “held out” clinician.
Results
Across all event types, 42–60% of all event-epochs were marked with the presence of an event by only one of four clinicians. All four clinicians agreed on 6–14% of all event-epochs evaluated. No statistically significant differences were observed in the percentage of event-epochs marked by 2/3 majority versus the percentage of event-epochs marked by clinicians individually. Comparatively, the observed agreement estimates were greater for all event types in the 2/3 majority setting than the individual setting.
Conclusion
Cross-validation presents an opportunity to improve the generalization of agreement estimates in ISR assessments. This work demonstrates that consensus-based DRS’s may be constructed and used for ISR assessments. Given the substantial percentage of epochs that were marked by a single clinician, utilizing a consensus-based reference can serve to regularize overfit scenarios where inter-scorer variability would be amplified by artifacts in an individual’s scoring. Therefore, cross-validation approaches may enable measurement of scoring agreement with greater reproducibility.
Support (If Any):
Visual Estimation of CAC
The Journal of nuclear medicine (1978),
02/2011, Volume:
52, Issue:
2
Journal Article
Peer reviewed
The researchers found a high degree of association between the visually estimated CAC levels and separately obtained Agatston scale results, with 64% of the previous in the same categories as the ...latter, and 93% within 1 category on either side. ... reader agreement was good, witìi identical scores in 65% of cases and within 1 category on either side in 93%.
What is the pathway to development in a world marked by rising economic nationalism and less international integration? This paper answers this question within a framework that emphasizes the role of ...demand‐side constraints on national development, which is identified with sustained poverty reduction. In this framework, development is linked to the adoption of an increasing returns to scale technology by imperfectly competitive firms that need to pay the fixed setup cost of switching to that technology. Sustained poverty reduction is measured as a continuous decline in the share of the population living below $1.90/day purchasing power parity in 2011 U.S. dollars over a five‐year period. This outcome is affected in a statistically significant and economically meaningful way by domestic market size, which is measured as a function of the income distribution, and international market size, which is measured as a function of legally‐binding provisions to international trade agreements, including the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade, the World Trade Organization, and 279 preferential trade agreements. Counterfactual estimates suggest that, in the absence of international integration, the average resident of a low‐ or lower‐middle‐income country does not live in a market large enough to experience sustained poverty reduction. Domestic redistribution targeted towards generating a larger middle class can partially compensate for the lack of an international market.
How do global trade rules evolve? This article argues that agreements create precedent that shapes subsequent negotiations, and policymakers exploit this precedent. Specifically, states sequence ...agreements, using negotiations with likeminded or relatively less important partners to establish model rules for subsequent use where negotiations will be more challenging. By institutionalizing negotiating positions where stakes are low, negotiators seek to improve the odds of replicating preferred terms in later, more challenging deals. A two-stage regression analysis on trade agreement design from 1965 to 2016 and qualitative probes from the UK and New Zealand support the argument: agreements with less important partners are presented as strategic opportunities to innovate and set precedent. Legal language has a way of sticking around, and states know it. States sign agreements with an eye to the future.
PDF
