A series of stationary wave model (SWM) experiments are performed in which the boreal summer atmosphere is forced, over a number of locations in the continental United States, with an idealized ...diabatic heating anomaly that mimics the atmospheric heating associated with a dry land surface. For localized heating within a large portion of the continental interior, regardless of the specific location of this heating, the spatial pattern of the forced atmospheric circulation anomaly (in terms of 250-hPa eddy streamfunction) is largely the same: a high anomaly forms over west-central North America and a low anomaly forms to the east. In supplemental atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) experiments, similar results are found; imposing soil moisture dryness in the AGCM in different locations within the U.S. interior tends to produce the aforementioned pattern, along with an associated near-surface warming and precipitation deficit in the center of the continent. The SWM-based and AGCM-based patterns generally agree with composites generated using reanalysis and precipitation gauge data. The AGCM experiments also suggest that dry anomalies imposed in the lower Mississippi River valley have remote surface impacts of particularly large spatial extent, and a region along the eastern half of the U.S.–Canadian border is particularly sensitive to dry anomalies in a number of remote areas. Overall, the SWM and AGCM experiments support the idea of a positive feedback loop operating over the continent: dry surface conditions in many interior locations lead to changes in atmospheric circulation that act to enhance further the overall dryness of the continental interior.
Recent climate and environment over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) have undergone significant changes, dominated by variations in the Westerlies and the Indian summer monsoon. However, long‐term shifts in ...atmospheric circulation during the transitional seasons are still lacking. Here we investigate the modern distribution of Tsuga pollen over the central‐western TP and confirm it as an indicator of variable atmospheric circulation in spring. By combining our Tsuga record from Taro Co with existing records in the Tsuga pollen source area, we suggest that a potential particle transport pathway from the southern slope of the Himalayas to the interior of the plateau appeared in the spring of the late Holocene. Our results show that the springtime atmospheric circulation over the southwestern TP during the early and late Holocene is closely related to the substantial remnants of ice sheets at northern high latitudes and the frequency of El Niño events, respectively.
Plain Language Summary
The spring climate over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) is undergoing significant changes that yield profound impacts on environmental changes such as variations in vegetation phenology and alpine treeline. Knowledge of long‐term variations in atmospheric circulation during spring can improve the understanding of current climatic and environmental change and the projection of future variability. In this paper, we use an exotic pollen grain, which can be transported long distances in the air, as an indicator to trace the variability of spring atmospheric circulation over the TP. The results indicate that the spring meridional atmospheric circulation from the southern slope of the TP to its interior has been enhanced in the last four thousand years, which is mainly influenced by the frequency of El Niño events.
Key Points
Spring atmospheric circulation change over the southwestern Tibetan Plateau (TP) during Holocene is reconstructed
Meridional atmospheric circulation in spring over the southwestern TP is strengthened in the late Holocene
High‐(low‐) latitude forcing mainly influence the variations in spring atmospheric circulation during the early (late) Holocene
Quantifying signals and uncertainties in climate models is essential for the detection, attribution, prediction and projection of climate change
. Although inter-model agreement is high for ...large-scale temperature signals, dynamical changes in atmospheric circulation are very uncertain
. This leads to low confidence in regional projections, especially for precipitation, over the coming decades
. The chaotic nature of the climate system
may also mean that signal uncertainties are largely irreducible. However, climate projections are difficult to verify until further observations become available. Here we assess retrospective climate model predictions of the past six decades and show that decadal variations in North Atlantic winter climate are highly predictable, despite a lack of agreement between individual model simulations and the poor predictive ability of raw model outputs. Crucially, current models underestimate the predictable signal (the predictable fraction of the total variability) of the North Atlantic Oscillation (the leading mode of variability in North Atlantic atmospheric circulation) by an order of magnitude. Consequently, compared to perfect models, 100 times as many ensemble members are needed in current models to extract this signal, and its effects on the climate are underestimated relative to other factors. To address these limitations, we implement a two-stage post-processing technique. We first adjust the variance of the ensemble-mean North Atlantic Oscillation forecast to match the observed variance of the predictable signal. We then select and use only the ensemble members with a North Atlantic Oscillation sufficiently close to the variance-adjusted ensemble-mean forecast North Atlantic Oscillation. This approach greatly improves decadal predictions of winter climate for Europe and eastern North America. Predictions of Atlantic multidecadal variability are also improved, suggesting that the North Atlantic Oscillation is not driven solely by Atlantic multidecadal variability. Our results highlight the need to understand why the signal-to-noise ratio is too small in current climate models
, and the extent to which correcting this model error would reduce uncertainties in regional climate change projections on timescales beyond a decade.
The regimes of possible global atmospheric circulation patterns in an Earth‐like atmosphere are explored using a simplified Global Circulation Model (GCM) based on the University of Hamburg's ...Portable University Model for the Atmosphere (PUMA)—with simplified (linear) boundary‐layer friction, a Newtonian cooling scheme, and dry convective adjustment (designated here as PUMA‐S). A series of controlled experiments is conducted by varying planetary rotation rate and imposed equator‐to‐pole temperature difference. These defining parameters are combined further with each other into dimensionless forms to establish a parameter space in which the occurrences of different circulation regimes are mapped and classified. Clear, coherent trends are found when varying planetary rotation rate (thermal Rossby number) and frictional and thermal relaxation time‐scales. The sequence of circulation regimes as a function of parameters, such as the planetary rotation rate, strongly resembles that obtained in laboratory experiments on rotating, stratified flows, especially if a topographic β‐effect is included in those experiments to emulate the planetary vorticity gradients in an atmosphere induced by the spherical curvature of the planet. A regular baroclinic wave regime is also obtained at intermediate values of thermal Rossby number and its characteristics and dominant zonal wavenumber depend strongly on the strength of radiative and frictional damping. These regular waves exhibit some strong similarities to baroclinic storms observed on Mars under some conditions. Multiple jets are found at the highest rotation rates, when the Rossby deformation radius and other eddy‐related length‐scales are much smaller than the radius of the planet. These exhibit some similarity to the multiple zonal jets observed on gas giant planets. Jets form on a scale comparable to the most energetic eddies and the Rhines scale poleward of the supercritical latitude. The balance of heat transport varies strongly with Ω∗ between eddies and zonally symmetric flows, becoming weak with fast rotation.
The regimes of global atmospheric circulation patterns in an Earth‐like atmosphere are explored as a function of rotation rate Ω, thermal contrast, and other parameters expressed in dimensionless form, using a simplified GCM based on the University of Hamburg's Portable University Model for the Atmosphere. Several distinct flow regimes are identified, including barotropically unstable cyclostrophic flow or a regular baroclinic wave regime at low Ω and more Earth‐like chaotic flows and circulations with multiple eddy‐driven zonal jets at larger Ω.
Abstract
Observations reveal two distinct patterns of atmospheric variability associated with wintertime variations in midlatitude sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the North Pacific sector: 1) a ...pattern of atmospheric circulation anomalies that peaks 2–3 weeks prior to large SST anomalies in the western North Pacific that is consistent with “atmospheric forcing” of the SST field, and 2) a pattern that lags SST anomalies in the western North Pacific by several weeks that is consistent with the “atmospheric response” to the SST field. Here we explore analogous lead–lag relations between the atmospheric circulation and western North Pacific SST anomalies in two sets of simulations run on the NCAR Community Earth System Model version 1 (CESM1): 1) a simulation run on a fully coupled version of CESM1 and 2) a simulation forced with prescribed, time-evolving SST anomalies over the western North Pacific region. Together, the simulations support the interpretation that the observed lead–lag relationships between western North Pacific SST anomalies and the atmospheric circulation reveal the patterns of atmospheric variability that both force and respond to midlatitude SST anomalies. The results provide numerical evidence that SST variability over the western North Pacific has a demonstrable effect on the large-scale atmospheric circulation throughout the North Pacific sector.
In recent decades, an increasing persistence of atmospheric circulation patterns has been observed. In the course of the associated long-lasting anticyclonic summer circulations, heatwaves and ...drought spells often coincide, leading to so-called hotter droughts. Previous hotter droughts caused a decrease in agricultural yields and an increase in tree mortality. Thus, they had a remarkable effect on carbon budgets and negative economic impacts. Consequently, a quantification of ecosystem responses to hotter droughts and a better understanding of the underlying mechanisms are crucial. In this context, the European hotter drought of the year 2018 may be considered a key event. As a first step towards the quantification of its causes and consequences, we here assess anomalies of atmospheric circulation patterns, maximum temperature, and climatic water balance as potential drivers of ecosystem responses which are quantified by remote sensing using the MODIS vegetation indices (VIs) normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and enhanced vegetation index (EVI). To place the drought of 2018 within a climatological context, we compare its climatic features and remotely sensed ecosystem response with the extreme hot drought of 2003. The year 2018 was characterized by a climatic dipole, featuring extremely hot and dry weather conditions north of the Alps but comparably cool and moist conditions across large parts of the Mediterranean. Analysing the ecosystem response of five dominant land cover classes, we found significant positive effects of climatic water balance on ecosystem VI response. Negative drought impacts appeared to affect an area 1.5 times larger and to be significantly stronger in July 2018 compared to August 2003, i.e. at the respective peak of drought. Moreover, we found a significantly higher sensitivity of pastures and arable land to climatic water balance compared to forests in both years. We explain the stronger coupling and higher sensitivity of ecosystem response in 2018 by the prevailing climatic dipole: while the generally water-limited ecosystems of the Mediterranean experienced above-average climatic water balance, the less drought-adapted ecosystems of central and northern Europe experienced a record hot drought. In conclusion, this study quantifies the drought of 2018 as a yet unprecedented event, outlines hotspots of drought-impacted areas in 2018 which should be given particular attention in follow-up studies, and provides valuable insights into the heterogeneous responses of the dominant European ecosystems to hotter drought.
Severe haze pollution in eastern China has caused substantial health impacts and economic loss. Conducive atmospheric conditions are important to affect occurrence of severe haze events, and ...circulation changes induced by future global climate warming are projected to increase the frequency of such events. However, a potential contribution of an anthropogenic influence to recent most severe haze (December 2015 and January 2013) over eastern China remains unclear. Here we show that the anthropogenic influence, which is estimated by using large ensemble runs with a climate model forced with and without anthropogenic forcings, has already increased the probability of the atmospheric patterns conducive to severe haze by at least 45% in January 2013 and 27% in December 2015, respectively. We further confirm that simulated atmospheric circulation pattern changes induced by anthropogenic influence are driven mainly by increased greenhouse gas emissions. Our results suggest that more strict reductions in pollutant emissions are needed under future anthropogenic warming.
Plain Language Summary
Extremely severe haze pollution occurred in December 2015 and January 2013 over eastern China with concentrations of PM2.5 reaching 500 μg m−3. During such severe haze, atmospheric circulation exhibited an anomalous east‐west sea level pressure gradient and a weakened East Asia monsoon. We assess in this work the role of anthropogenic climate change in such large‐scale circulation anomalies by using a large ensemble of climate simulations forced with and without anthropogenic forcings. Anthropogenic influence is estimated to increase the probability of the occurrence of anomalous atmospheric pattern similar to that in January 2013 (December 2015) by 45% (27%). We further confirm that the simulated anthropogenic circulation changes are induced mainly by increased greenhouse gas emissions. Results from our study suggest that more strict emission reduction measures are needed to improve air quality under a continuing anthropogenic warming in the upcoming decades and global effort to reduce greenhouse gas emissions can decrease the risk of severe haze over eastern China.
Key Points
Large‐scale circulation anomalies associated with recent most severe haze cases (January 2013 and December 2015) were identified
The reanalysis data show that the frequency of anomalous atmospheric patterns conducive to the most severe haze increased over 1948‐2015
Large ensemble climate runs show greenhouse warming has significantly increased the probability of the conducive atmospheric patterns
During recent decades Arctic sea ice variability and retreat during winter have largely been a result of variable ocean heat transport (OHT). Here we use the Community Earth System Model (CESM) large ...ensemble simulation to disentangle internally and externally forced winter Arctic sea ice variability, and to assess to what extent future winter sea ice variability and trends are driven by Atlantic heat transport. We find that OHT into the Barents Sea has been, and is at present, a major source of internal Arctic winter sea ice variability and predictability. In a warming world (RCP8.5), OHT remains a good predictor of winter sea ice variability, although the relation weakens as the sea ice retreats beyond the Barents Sea. Warm Atlantic water gradually spreads downstream from the Barents Sea and farther into the Arctic Ocean, leading to a reduced sea ice cover and substantial changes in sea ice thickness. The future long-term increase in Atlantic heat transport is carried by warmer water as the current itself is found to weaken. The externally forced weakening of the Atlantic inflow to the Barents Sea is in contrast to a strengthening of the Nordic Seas circulation, and is thus not directly related to a slowdown of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). The weakened Barents Sea inflow rather results from regional atmospheric circulation trends acting to change the relative strength of Atlantic water pathways into the Arctic. Internal OHT variability is associated with both upstream ocean circulation changes, including AMOC, and large-scale atmospheric circulation anomalies reminiscent of the Arctic Oscillation.
Haze is a severe hazard that greatly influences traffic and daily life with great economic losses and threats to human health. To enhance understanding of the haze occurrences, this study examined ...the haze variations over North China and their associated atmospheric circulations for the period of 1960–2012 using daily visibility data. Results indicate that the haze events over this region primarily occur in boreal winter of year and mainly in the morning of day. The results of the analysis of the long‐term variations indicate that the annual haze days were relatively few in the 1960s but increased steeply in the 1970s and have remained stable to the present. Some differences are obvious among seasons. A stably increasing trend is discernable in summer and autumn, relatively low in the 1960s and the 1990s–2000s and relatively high in the 1970s–1980s in spring and winter. Haze variations in urban regions are quite similar to haze variations in rural regions but with more haze days in urban regions because of the high aerosol emissions. Further analyses indicate that the occurrences of severe haze events in boreal winter generally correlate with the weakened northerly winds and the development of inversion anomalies in the lower troposphere, the weakened East Asian trough in the midtroposphere, and the northward East Asian jet in the high troposphere. All of these factors provide a favorable atmospheric background for the maintenance and development of haze events in this region.
Key Points
Analysis performed on daily visibility data from 1960 to 2012
Haze primarily occurs in boreal winter and in morning in North China
Haze occurrence closely linked to northward activity of East Asian jet stream
PDF
