Estudamos os dados do balanço de pagamentos de um conjunto de países latino-americanos entre 1990 e 2019. Pretendíamos quantificar os principais itens de receita e despesa em moeda estrangeira. ...Estávamos particularmente interessados em estudar a magnitude e o papel dos fluxos financeiros, seja como fonte de recursos externos, seja como despesa. A análise foi realizada em duas dimensões: seção transversal (para uma amostra de 11 nações) para todo o período e ao longo do tempo para as três décadas cobertas pelos dados. Este estudo oferece uma base empírica para reavaliar a visão tradicional que impõe uma "restrição externa" ao crescimento do comércio exterior. Em contrapartida, os dados aqui analisados sugerem que os itens relacionados aos fluxos financeiros são os principais responsáveis pela vulnerabilidade externa desses países.
The Eurozone crisis constitutes a grave challenge to European integration. This article presents an overview of the causes of the crisis and analyzes why it has been so difficult to resolve. We focus ...on how responses to the crisis were shaped by distributive conflicts both among and within countries. On the international level, debtor and creditor countries have fought over the distribution of responsibility for the accumulated debt; countries with current account surpluses and deficits have fought over who should implement the policies necessary to reduce the current account imbalances. Within countries, interest groups have fought to shift the costs of crisis resolution away from themselves. The article emphasizes that the Eurozone crisis shares many features of previous debt and balance-of-payments crises. However, the Eurozone's predicament is unique because it is set within a monetary union that strongly constrains the policy options available to policy makers and vastly increases the interdependence of the euro crisis countries. The outcome of the crisis has also been highly unusual because the costs of crisis resolution have been borne almost exclusively by the debtor countries and taxpayers in the Eurozone.
PurposeThe aim of the paper is to determine the asymmetric impact of tourism on the deficit in the balance of payments (BOPs).Design/methodology/approachThe research uses the non-linear ...autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model to investigate the asymmetric impact of tourism on Pakistan's BOPs deficit using quarterly data from 1995 to 2019.FindingsThe finding reveals that due to the positive change in tourism, the BOPs deficit decreases by 27%, although due to the negative change in tourism, the BOPs deficit rises by 2.3%. In addition, the significance of F-statistics (10.609) confirms the existence of co-integration between tourism and the deficit in the BOPs. The Wald test confirms the asymmetric association between tourism and the deficit in the BOPs over the long term.Research limitations/implicationsIn order to improve tourism in Pakistan, policymakers must consider the following implications. First, there is a need for an adequate infrastructure that can help the tourist. Second, the Government must maintain a stable law and order situation as a whole and particularly at tourist destinations. Finally, the Government should develop tourism-friendly policies in order to boost tourism in Pakistan.Originality/valueThe research provides new evidence of the impact of tourism on the BOPs using the novel non-linear ARDL (NARDL) technique. The evidence will help policymakers to develop policies to improve tourism in order to reduce the BOPs deficit.
This article surveys selected recent contributions and debates regarding fundamental aspects of the theory of balance‐of‐payments‐constrained growth (BPCG). The survey focuses mainly on studies, from ...roughly the period since 2010, in four broad (and related) areas: whether and how relative prices and the real exchange rate affect export performance and long‐run growth; the role of endogenous technological progress; the causes and consequences of structural change; and the dynamics of adjustment toward (or cycles around) a long‐run growth equilibrium with a balance‐of‐payments constraint. The discussion also highlights the increasing incorporation of insights from other theoretical traditions (Kaleckian, Kaldorian, Schumpeterian, Goodwinian, and structuralist) into the BPCG framework. The survey suggests the need to clarify the underlying assumptions and policy implications of the BPCG model and to complement its focus on long‐run growth rates with analyses of medium‐run adjustments and level effects.
O objetivo deste artigo é investigar a sustentabilidade de longo prazo de uma trajetória de crescimento liderada por múltiplos gastos autônomos não geradores de capacidade em um modelo de ...supermultiplicador liderado por demanda para uma pequena economia aberta. Usando dois modelos diferentes, os resultados mostram que é impossível ter em um mesmo modelo crescimento econômico de longo prazo impulsionado pelo componente não criador de capacidade da demanda doméstica, distribuição de renda exógena, equilíbrio de longo prazo entre capacidade produtiva e demanda agregada e equilíbrio de equilíbrio de pagamentos. A viabilidade econômica da trajetória de crescimento equilibrado exige que o crescimento seja liderado pelas exportações, pelo menos para pequenas economias abertas.
Persistent external deficits are a recurrent phenomena in low and middle income countries. We define a new empirical measure to study balance of payment crises related to the accumulation of ...persistent external deficits. Using a non-parametric difference-in-differences estimator we estimate a critical value for the accumulated current account deficits associated with a crisis. Countries that have increased their net external indebtedness by an accumulated amount of at least 26%–31% of the GDP in a time span of 3 to 5 years are more vulnerable to suffer a crisis, which includes a consumption fall of 3.1% and a current account reversal of 4.9 percentage points of GDP. These crises are far more severe than an average sudden stop. Thus, our empirical results suggest that fast accumulation of external debt though current account deficits is related to severe crises.
From a global perspective, international tourism has a great importance for national economies. In addition, for the most visited countries, international tourism is a major contributor to GDP. This ...article focuses specifically on changes in international tourism from the view of the balance of payments. At first,the theoretical part will introduce the field of international tourism and its impact on the economy of the state and then in the context of the balance of payments of the state. Subsequently, in the analytical part, the aim will be to analyse the development of tourism and its impact on the trade and services balance. For example, in the Czech Republic, the results show a large number of tourist arrivals, but also large departures of Czechs abroad, which reduces the overall balance. In the end and among other things, the impact of the covid-19 pandemic on tourism and the balance of payments will be evaluated.
The departure of Tony Thirlwall, a pioneer, renowned scholar, and a generous mentor, is a major loss to economics. This article reviews his main contributions to economics. The article focuses on his ...approach and method to economics and on his research output in the theory and empirics of growth and development.
•The model shows the co-evolution of relative growth, the technology gap, the production structure and relative wages in an international system with two countries (North and South) with different ...technological capabilities.•The model discusses the impact of the exchange rate policy, labor market policy and industrial policy on growth and income distribution.•The outcomes of the model are illustrated with the economic history of Argentina, Brazil and Korea in the post-World War II period.
This paper presents a North-South technology gap model which combines the Schumpeterian approach to technical and structural change with the Keynesian perspective on effective demand and the Balance-of-Payments (BOP) constraint as drivers of growth. Three are the contributions of the paper. First, it develops a model in which the technology gap, relative productivity and relative wages co-evolve and may generate different paths of convergence or divergence between South and North depending on the parameters of the model. Second, the parameters of the model are associated with different types of policies, which allows for discussing how these policies may change the growth path. Finally, the model is used to discuss the contrasting experiences of Asia and Latin America since 1970. Convergence in Asia and divergence in Latin America have been extensively debated topics in the literature on comparative economic development, which highlights the crucial role of industrial policy. It is argued that the results of the technology gap model are consistent with the findings of this literature and helps understand the forces behind convergence and divergence.
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