•Economic impacts of carbon capture and storage (CCS) are examined.•A hybrid energy system model is used to comprehensively explore CCS cost reduction.•CCS cost reduction and its macroeconomic ...effects are analyzed.•CCS cost reduction mitigates steel production and GDP loss from CCS adoption.•CCS can be economically feasible in the long term.
Carbon capture and storage (CCS) is necessary to reduce greenhouse gas emissions that cannot be mitigated using other reduction options. However, the high cost of CCS raises doubts about its economic feasibility. This study analyzes CCS cost reduction and its macroeconomic effects and shows that CCS can be economically feasible in the long term. This study incorporates technology learning into a hybrid energy system model and investigates its impact on the economic feasibility of CCS in the Korean steel industry. The hybrid model integrates a bottom-up energy system model and a computable general equilibrium model and overcomes the limitations of employing independent models in exploring technology learning. According to the model, in 2050, the CCS unit cost decreases by 64% when the learning rate is 20%. Due to this cost reduction, the steel industry’s additional capital and labor costs resulting from CCS adoption decrease by 60%. Moreover, although CCS adoption and diffusion reduce steel production, 60% of this production loss can be mitigated by CCS cost reduction. The cost reduction also helps to reduce the GDP loss resulting from CCS adoption by 0.3 %p.
The new European Commission plans to raise the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction target from 40% towards 55% by 2030 and make Europe the first climate-neutral continent by 2050. Achieving this ...will require accelerated energy efficiency measures, deeper electrification of sectors currently consuming conventional fuels and the deployment of more renewables, faster. This opinion article looks specifically at the role of photovoltaics (PV), based on scenarios from the Commission's 2018 long-term strategy (LTS) for energy and climate. To reach a 55% GHG emissions reduction, the cumulative PV capacity in the EU and the UK would need to surge to 455–605 GW, depending on the strategic policy scenario. This implies a compound annual growth rate between 12 and 15% in the timeframe 2020–203 to increase the annual PV market from approximately 16.5 GW in 2019 to 50–80 GW by 2030. Such a volume can provide the basis for reviving the European solar manufacturing industry as well as creating more than 100 000 jobs along the value chain.
•To achieve a 55% GHG emissions reduction by 2030, the PV capacity in the EU and the UK would need to reach 455–605 GW.•The annual PV market for the EU and UK could increase from 16.5 GWDC in 2019 to 50 GWDC in 2030.•A substantial and growing market can provide the basis for reviving the European solar manufacturing industry.•There is a potential to create more than 100 000 new jobs in Europe along the PV value chain.
Green hydrogen is central to the global energy transition. This paper introduces a renewable hydrogen production system model that optimizes hydrogen production on a worldwide 50km × 50km grid, ...considering country-specific investment risks. Besides the renewable energy’s impact on the hydrogen production system (HPS) design, we analyze the effect of country-specific interest rates on the levelized cost of hydrogen (LCOH) production. Over one-third (40.0%) of all cells have an installed solar PV capacity share between 50% and 70%, 76.4% have a hybrid (onshore wind and solar PV) configuration. Hydrogen storage is deployed rather than battery storage to balance hydrogen production via electrolysis and hydrogen demand. Hybrid HPSs can significantly reduce the LCOH production compared to non-hybrid designs, whereas country-specific interest rates can lead to significant increases, diminishing the relative competitiveness of countries with abundant renewable energy resources compared to countries with fewer resources but fewer investment risks.
Display omitted
•Worldwide levelized cost of hydrogen production on a 50km × 50km grid resolution.•Impact of country risk premiums on the levelized cost of hydrogen production.•Cost-optimal hybrid hydrogen production system design per grid cell.•All results are available on an open-data license.
We reviewed the literature focusing on nineteen integrated Energy System Models (ESMs) to: (i) identify the capabilities and shortcomings of current ESMs to analyze adequately the transition towards ...a low-carbon energy system; (ii) assess the performance of the selected models by means of the derived criteria, and (iii) discuss some potential solutions to address the ESM gaps.
This paper delivers three main outcomes. First, we identify key criteria for analyzing current ESMs and we describe seven current and future low-carbon energy system modeling challenges: the increasing need for flexibility, further electrification, emergence of new technologies, technological learning and efficiency improvements, decentralization, macroeconomic interactions, and the role of social behavior in the energy system transition. These criteria are then translated into required modeling capabilities such as the need for hourly temporal resolution, sectoral coupling technologies (e.g., P2X), technological learning, flexibility technologies, stakeholder behavior, cross border trade, and linking with macroeconomic models. Second, a Multi-Criteria Analysis (MCA) is used as a framework to identify modeling gaps while clarifying high modeling capabilities of MARKAL, TIMES, REMix, PRIMES, and METIS. Third, to bridge major energy modeling gaps, two conceptual modeling suites are suggested, based on both optimization and simulation methodologies, in which the integrated ESM is hard-linked with a regional model and an energy market model and soft-linked with a macroeconomic model.
•Seven low-carbon energy system modeling challenges are described.•Multi-Criteria Analysis is used as a framework to identify modeling gaps.•Some potential solutions to address the ESM gaps are briefly discussed.•Two conceptual modeling suites are suggested to bridge major energy modeling gaps.
National climate targets must be decomposed into key areas to guide mitigation actions. This paper presents a comparative study of China's low-carbon transition pathways at the sectoral level under ...the nationally determined contribution (NDC) and 2 °C targets, using the energy system model and detailed sectoral information. The results show that each sector plays different roles in terms of emission trends, mitigation potentials, technology roadmaps, investment requirements, and mitigation costs. The power sector is expected to contribute around 50% of the total mitigation. The industry sector has better cost-effective performance, with high mitigation potential and low investment requirement. By contrast, the transport and power sectors account for around 90% of total investment demand. The building and transport sectors have substantial mitigation opportunities that can be realized through technologies with negative mitigation costs. Conversely, the industry sector faces challenges in promoting carbon capture and storage, which has the highest mitigation cost. Compared with the sectoral transition pathways under the NDC target, the 2 °C scenario requires a rapid near-term decarbonization of the power sector and additional emission reductions in end-use sectors. This decarbonization is possible through comprehensive deployment of advanced low-carbon technologies as well as measures that increase investments in low-carbon infrastructure and decrease investments in fossil fuel-based technologies in the power and transport sectors. Therefore, it is important to thoroughly understand the sectoral transition pathways under different climate targets in order to coordinate inter-sectoral actions and resources in a cost-effective manner.
•A quantitative study of sectoral low-carbon transition pathways in China was done.•Sectors perform differently in emissions trends, mitigation potential, and cost.•The performance of each sector changes over time and based on climate targets.•Different climate targets imply different technology roadmaps.
Data on the potential generation of energy from wind, solar and biomass is crucial for analysing their development, as it sets the limits on how much additional capacity it is feasible to install. ...This paper presents the methodologies used for the development of ENSPRESO, ENergy System Potentials for Renewable Energy SOurces, an EU-28 wide, open dataset for energy models on renewable energy potentials, at national and regional levels for the 2010–2050 period. In ENSPRESO, coherent GIS-based land-restriction scenarios are developed. For wind, resource evaluation also considers setback distances, as well as high resolution geo-spatial wind speed data. For solar, potentials are derived from irradiation data and available area for solar applications. Both wind and solar have separately a potential electricity production which is equivalent to three times the EU's 2016 electricity demand, with wind onshore and solar requiring 16% and 1.4% of total land, respectively. For biomass, agriculture, forestry and waste sectors are considered. Their respective sustainable potentials are equivalent to a minimum 10%, 1.5% and 1% of the total EU primary energy use. ENSPRESO can enrich the results of any energy model (e.g. JRC-EU-TIMES) by improving its analyses of the competition and complementarity of energy technologies.
•ENSPRESO is an EU-28 wide open (C.C. Attribution 4.0.) dataset on potentials of wind, solar and biomass resources.•ENSPRESO estimates potential land use, capacities and energy production for 276 regions.•ENSPRESO is based on coherent land-restriction scenarios and bottom-up resource analysis.•ENSPRESO improves modelling of competition and complementarity of energy technologies.
•9 global transition pathways are analysed for decarbonisation of electricity sector.•Input-output data of simulation models are remodelled by a cost-optimisation model.•The least-cost, highly ...diversified, and business-as-usual pathways are compared.•Pace, CO2 costs and energy diversity are found crucial across the scenarios.•Ambitious paths show competitive costs, ranging between 45.2 and 59.2 €/MWh by 2050.
This study presents a novel energy system modelling approach for the analysis and comparison of global energy transition pathways for the decarbonisation of the electricity sector. The results of the International Energy Agency (IEA), and the Teske/DLR scenarios are each reproduced. Additionally, five new energy transition trajectories, called LUT, are presented. The research examines the feasibility of each scenario across nine major regions in 5-year intervals, from 2015 to 2050, under a uniform modelling environment with identical technical and financial assumptions. The main differences between the energy transition paths are identified across: (1) the average electricity generation costs; (2) energy diversity; (3) system flexibility; (4) energy security; and, (5) transition dynamics. All LUT and Teske/DLR scenarios are transitioned to zero CO2 emissions and a 100% renewable energy system by 2050 at the latest. Results reveal that the LUT scenarios are the least-cost pathways, while the Teske/DLR scenarios are centred around energy diversity with slightly higher LCOE of around 10–20%. The IEA shares similarities with the Teske/DLR scenarios in terms of energy diversity yet depends on the continued use of fossil fuels with carbon capture and storage, and nuclear power. The IEA scenario based on current governmental policies presents a worst-case situation regarding CO2 emissions reduction, climate change and overall system costs.
•A temporally detailed energy system optimization model for Japan.•Analyzing the impacts of CCS potential and costs on net-zero CO2 energy systems.•The availability of CO2 storage significantly ...affects Japan's optimal energy choice.•CCS is crucial to curb Japan's carbon-emission mitigation costs.•A moderate increase in CCS costs does not undermine the role of CCS in Japan.
Japan's sixth Strategic Energy Plan mentions that carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS) is one of the important options to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050; however, the technology faces significant uncertainties regarding its potential and costs. This study quantifies the impact of CCS uncertainties on Japan's net-zero energy mix using an energy system optimization model. The simulation results show that CO2 storage availability largely affects the optimal energy choice in the entire energy sector, including the electricity and all end-use sectors. Future CCS implementation would determine the penetration of net-zero emission fuels, such as hydrogen and synthetic fuels. The results also imply that CCS is crucial in curbing Japan's emission reduction costs. Marginal CO2 abatement cost in 2050 surges to 1717 USD/tCO2 in a limited CCS case (injecting 10 MtCO2/year in 2050), tripling from that of a higher CCS case (504 USD/tCO2 when injecting 200 MtCO2/year in 2050). An additional analysis of CCS costs confirms that CCS can be economically attractive even in a high CCS cost case. The results of this study can provide scientific insights into the design of country- and corporate-level energy strategies.
Display omitted
•We developed new market allocation model for carbon capture and utilization (CCU)•New end-user demands were added to the model for chemical industrial system.•CO2 pricing in Japan ...was studied to meet the 2050 carbon emission reduction target.•CCU can reduce the fossil fuels required by petrochemical industries by 0–32 %•Along with CCU, zero emission vehicles (ZEVs) can reduce CO2 emissions.
Carbon capture and utilization (CCU), which is a process used to captured CO2 and convert it into other substances via chemical reactions with hydrogen, is considered to be the most effective carbon–neutral technology for heavy industries. Therefore, comprehensive model-based studies on the economic viability of CCU for decarbonizing the industrial sector can provide effective solutions for controlling carbon emissions from petrochemical industry. In this study, we investigated 1) the roles that CCU could play in Japan’s decarbonization pathways to meet the country’s 2050 carbon emission goals, 2) factors that influence CCU deployment, and 3) how the market penetration of zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs) could affect CCU deployment. Notably, we applied the MARKet ALlocation (MARKAL) model and extended it to integrate CCU technologies and represent chemical production processes, including those required to manufacture basic petrochemical products. Furthermore, the total optimal (minimized) system cost was determined, while considering climate policies and technological assumptions, by analyzing scenarios based on various parameters associated with CO2 emissions and CCU costs. Our study indicates that CCU has the potential to reduce the use of fossil fuel-based energy required by the petrochemical industry by 32%, thus, substantially contributing to Japan’s 2050 CO2 emissions target. Notably, CCU technology can play a key role in near-future decarbonization efforts, especially in cases where ZEV penetration is not as fast as expected.
•Pairing solar PV with battery can reduce electricity imports from the grid by up to 84%.•Home battery doubles PV self-consumption in the building.•Rewarding self-consumption of PV is the most ...effective policy for mobilizing onsite flexibility solutions like batteries.•Solar PV paired with battery can be profitable for residential consumers even in high-latitude countries.•Value of arbitrage for residential electricity storage can be three times higher than utility-scale storage.
Share of solar photovoltaic (PV) is rapidly growing worldwide as technology costs decline and national energy policies promote distributed renewable energy systems. Solar PV can be paired with energy storage systems to increase the self-consumption of PV onsite, and possibly provide grid-level services, such as peak shaving and load levelling. However, the investment on energy storage may not return under current market conditions. We propose three types of policies to incentivise residential electricity consumers to pair solar PV with battery energy storage, namely, a PV self-consumption feed-in tariff bonus; “energy storage policies” for rewarding discharge of electricity from home batteries at times the grid needs most; and dynamic retail pricing mechanisms for enhancing the arbitrage value of residential electricity storage. We soft-link a consumer cost optimization model with a national power system model to analyse the impact of the proposed policies on the economic viability of PV-storage for residential end-users in the UK. The results show that replacing PV generation incentives with a corresponding PV self-consumption bonus offers return on investment in a home battery, equal to a 70% capital subsidy for the battery, but with one-third of regulatory costs. The proposed energy storage policies offer positive return on investment of 40% when pairing a battery with solar PV, without the need for central coordination of decentralized energy storage nor providing ancillary services by electricity storage in buildings. We find that the choice of optimal storage size and dynamic electricity tariffs are key to maximize the profitability of PV-battery energy storage systems.
PDF
