Green hydrogen is central to the global energy transition. This paper introduces a renewable hydrogen production system model that optimizes hydrogen production on a worldwide 50km × 50km grid, ...considering country-specific investment risks. Besides the renewable energy’s impact on the hydrogen production system (HPS) design, we analyze the effect of country-specific interest rates on the levelized cost of hydrogen (LCOH) production. Over one-third (40.0%) of all cells have an installed solar PV capacity share between 50% and 70%, 76.4% have a hybrid (onshore wind and solar PV) configuration. Hydrogen storage is deployed rather than battery storage to balance hydrogen production via electrolysis and hydrogen demand. Hybrid HPSs can significantly reduce the LCOH production compared to non-hybrid designs, whereas country-specific interest rates can lead to significant increases, diminishing the relative competitiveness of countries with abundant renewable energy resources compared to countries with fewer resources but fewer investment risks.
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•Worldwide levelized cost of hydrogen production on a 50km × 50km grid resolution.•Impact of country risk premiums on the levelized cost of hydrogen production.•Cost-optimal hybrid hydrogen production system design per grid cell.•All results are available on an open-data license.
This short communication is based on a workshop on hydrogen network modeling in macro-energy system models discussing the whole hydrogen value chain: production, transmission, storage, and use, as ...well as the related issues of demand flexibility, alternative fuels of biological origin, and the integration with district heating. It was organized by the Danish research network ENERforsk with leading modelers from academia, industry, and transmission system operators. The workshop collected (1) lessons learned, (2) best practices, and (3) potential next steps. We conclude that no-regret pathways need to consider evolving hydrogen regulation while balancing social aspects with interests driven by green industrial policy. Important and uncertain issues include the repurposing of natural gas networks, considering hydrogen pipeline standards and existing contracts, or the disposal of brine water. As more demand sectors and carbonaceous fuels are included in the models, carbon management, sustainable biomass, and carbon networks become more important. Collecting and incorporating lessons learned, best practices, and potential next steps will help the modeling community and policymakers to develop sound policies.
Energy system and computable general equilibrium (CGE) models play vital roles in climate change mitigation studies. These models have advantages and disadvantages, and attempts have been made to ...integrate them. This study aimed to describe the method for integrating energy system and CGE models and demonstrate the new model that captures the strengths of both models. The method developed in this study ensured the detailed convergence of the energy system by exchanging the results iteratively. We demonstrated the model integration by adopting the method to MESSAGEix-GLOBIOM and AIM/Hub and estimating a mitigation scenario that limits the temperature rise to below 2 °C under the middle-of-the-road socioeconomic projection in Shared Socioeconomic Pathways. As a result of the integration, the index showing the difference between the two models proposed in this study decreased from 1.0 to 0.066. Therefore, we confirmed that these models estimated consistent scenarios. The diagnostic indicators showed that compared to its counterpart CGE model, the newly-developed model was characterized by a higher contribution of demand-side reductions, a lesser alteration in the primary energy supply composition, and lower abatement costs. Given the convergence and advantages of the integrated framework, the proposed method is useful for further application to mitigation studies.
•Proposed a new method to integrate energy system models and CGE models.•Integrated MESSAGEix-GLOBIOM and AIM/Hub using the newly proposed method.•AIM/Hub provided multi-sectoral and goods representation.•MESSAGEix-GLOBIOM enabled estimates in consideration of detailed technologies.•Integrated model was characterized by demand-side effort and lower abatement costs.
Energy system models often rely on assumptions about the infeed of renewable energies. Despite their significance, the renewable time series are often based on single weather years, selected without ...applying clear criteria. For planning purposes of photovoltaic plants or heating and cooling systems, it is common practice to artificially create weather years composed of months from different years. However, there are only few models for the composition of artificial weather years that represent a well-defined high- or low-infeed-scenario. A new method is proposed to artificially construct infeed time series on system level. Under the assumption of a normal distribution, we compose an infeed time series which aims at meeting a certain quantile of annual infeed. Thus, it is possible to construct different infeed scenarios, to model the inter-year variability of the renewable infeed. The method at hand can be useful for everyone who uses exogenous infeed time series in energy modeling.
•Renewable infeed scenarios in energy system models are mostly based on single years.•An alternative is the composition of artificial years based on selected months.•The months can be selected based on a target probability of exceedance.•Advantages for the analysis of the interannual variability of renewable infeed.•Definition of high and low infeed scenarios based on objective criteria.
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•A method is suggested to integrate prospective parameters in LCA of buildings.•Climate change and evolution of the energy system are accounted for.•Environmental assessment is ...performed at an hourly time step.•Both climate change and evolution of the energy mix influence results.•The energy use in high performance building remains an important contributor of LCA.
The objective of this study is to evaluate life cycle impacts of buildings, integrating climate change (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 IPCC scenarios) and evolution of the energy mix on the long term (at 2050). Two methodological approaches were developed following the modelling principles of attributional and consequential life cycle assessment (LCA). The methodology is illustrated using a simple case study: a low-energy single family house located in France. Two design options were evaluated using life cycle assessment: the choice of a heating system and the integration of photovoltaic (PV) modules on the roof. Using an attributional approach and compared to a static LCA considering no prospective parameters, the carbon footprint of the house (total life cycle) varies from +21% to +43% for the electric heating alternative, −7% to +4% for the gas boiler alternative, −6% to +15% for the PV alternative depending on climate change intensity and evolution of the energy mix. Figures using the consequential approach have a larger magnitude of variation from −36% to −13% for the electric heating alternative, 0 to +16% for the gas boiler alternative and −14% to +1% for the PV alternative compared to a static LCA. Accounting for climate change and the evolution of the energy system has a large influence on LCA results.
The scope of hydrogen energy is being extended in the Republic of Korea as a national innovative growth engine to overcome environmental problems, particularly climate change. The effects of this ...expansion on the energy system and national greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are expected to vary greatly depending on the hydrogen energy supply chain scenario. Accordingly, in this study, the energy and environmental effects of hydrogen energy supply chain scenarios on the national energy system were analyzed quantitatively using the TIMES model, a representative bottom-up energy system analysis model. The scenarios were defined in terms of three perspectives: the development level of key technologies, contribution of future renewable energy to the power generation sector, and relative importance of each hydrogen production method portfolio. All scenarios were based on the policies being considered by the Korean government. The results of the scenario analyses show, among others, that green hydrogen, i.e., water electrolysis-oriented hydrogen production, consumes a fairly large amount of electricity. Therefore, from the perspective of the entire national energy system, the transition of the power sector to renewable energy, mainly solar and wind energies, and the advancement of water electrolysis are required to reduce the national GHG emissions.
•Hydrogen energy supply chain can affect the national energy mix and emissions.•A bottom-up energy system model provides quantitative analysis.•Green hydrogen can substantially increase electricity consumption.
This paper determines a least cost electricity solution for Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). The power system discussed in this study is hourly resolved and based on 100% Renewable Energy (RE) technologies. ...Sub-Saharan Africa was subdivided into 16 sub-regions. Four different scenarios were considered involving the setup of a high voltage direct current (HVDC) transmission grid. An integrated scenario that considers water desalination and industrial gas production was also analyzed. This study reveals that RE is sufficient to cover 866.4 TWh estimated electricity demand for 2030 and additional electricity needed to fulfill 319 million m3 of water desalination and 268 TWhLHV of synthetic natural gas demand. Existing hydro dams can be used as virtual batteries for solar PV and wind electricity storage, diminishing the role of other storage technologies. The results for total levelised cost of electricity (LCOE) decreases from 57.8 €/MWh for a highly decentralized to 54.7 €/MWh for a more centralized grid scenario. For the integrated scenario, including water desalination and synthetic natural gas demand, the levelised cost of gas and the levelised cost of water are 113.7 €/MWhLHV and 1.39 €/m3, respectively. A reduction of 6% in total cost and 19% in electricity generation was realized as a result of integrating desalination and power-to-gas sectors into the system. A review of studies on the energy future of Sub-Saharan Africa provides the basis for a detailed discussion of the new results presented.
•Least cost electricity solutions for Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) are presented.•Resources are sufficient to power all demand solely with renewable energy.•Solar PV and wind energy dominate the supply complemented by hydropower.•Off-grid PV accelerates the electrification in Sub-Saharan Africa.•Almost all existing studies do not yet well represent the renewable energy potential.
The influence of reducing energy imports (5%, 10% and 15%) on primary energy supply, diversification of energy resources, cost of imported fuels, energy security and environmental emission during ...2005–2050 were analyzed through a long term integrated energy system model of Pakistan using MARKet ALlocation (MARKAL) framework. The study found that primary energy supply would decrease marginally, while cumulative renewable energy would increase by 24%. Energy import dependency would reduce by 3%, diversification of energy resources would increase 1.1 fold and vulnerability would decrease by 9% under energy import reduction scenario as compared to the base case. The cost of imported fuels would reduce by 10% and the greenhouse gas emissions would decrease by 8% in the energy import reduction scenario. The impact on energy security was represented through a set of eleven energy security indicators. The improvements in energy security indicators under energy import reduction targets indicate the enhancement of energy security of Pakistan.
Decarbonizing the passenger transportation sector is critical for climate change mitigation. Existing studies on net-zero scenarios using Energy System Optimization Models (ESOM) often overlook ...non-monetary aspects of consumers' mobility choices but primarily focus on cost aspects. This study incorporates consumers' travel time duration and valuation, and an endogenous modal shift option into the Swiss TIMES Energy system Model (STEM). STEM is applied in a multi-objective optimization framework to quantify the impacts of faster Public Transport (PT) and slower car speeds on modal shifts in the transport sector's transformation. Similarly, we assess scenarios where consumers weigh travel time less, reflecting improved travel productivity. The results show that speed variations on medium- and long-distance trips, which can be interpreted as policies for highway speed limits and more efficient PT, can induce modal shifts towards 5–10% higher PT demand. Its implied secondary effects across the energy system include a reduced need for electrification of heavy-duty trucks by 11% and a decrease in hydrogen demand in road transportation by 34% by 2050. If travelers weigh costs over travel time, PT becomes less competitive against cars. Thus, electric vehicles (EVs) need to play a more dominant role in decarbonization, with a demand increase of 13% in 2040 (+9.2 billion passenger kilometer (bpkm)) and 6% in 2050 (+5.0 bpkm), along with the need for additional 45,000 public chargers of 22 kW size. Policy implications include the emphasis on improved PT speeds, speed limits on highways, needs to achieve more widespread EV adoption, and the need for balancing travelers' decision factors when aiming for reduced transport CO2 emissions.
•Non-monetary aspects relevant for modal shift incorporated in the Swiss TIMES model.•Multi-objective optimization to quantify net-zero impacts of non-monetary aspects.•Travel speed measures induce a 5–10% demand uptake of public transport.•Weighing travel time less makes electric cars more critical for decarbonization.•Secondary energy system effects are quantified & policy implications are drawn.
Low-income communities face a causality dilemma: A lack of energy services hampers income growth and insufficient income hampers energy service provision. Interventions delivering cost-effective ...energy services can address this dilemma, triggering a virtuous cycle of economic upliftment. While several studies have investigated cost-effective energy supply to low-income communities, a gap exists regarding holistic optimization of energy service deployment at different levels of economic development. Hence, a novel energy system model of a South African village is presented to optimize deployment and hourly dispatch of energy supply and energy services to recover time lost to poverty-related activities (e.g., gathering wood and water). Results showed that an optimized technology rollout can save each person over 1500 productive hours per year at an average cost below 0.2 $/hour. The model also identified the optimal order of technology deployment for driving economic development. Interestingly, an electrical grid connection was of minor importance because local mini-grids could economically supply the modest power demands of lighting, refrigeration, water pumping, and cleaning, while energy-intensive cooking and water heating can be economically performed using fuels and solar heaters. Detailed studies of individual low-income communities are recommended to outline optimal technology deployment strategies and reveal the low costs involved.
•Modern energy services are essential for the upliftment of low-income communities.•Optimal energy service deployment saves >1500 h/person/year for <0.2 $/hour.•About 40 % of the time savings are indirect (health, productivity, crime reduction).•A grid connection only makes a significant impact on the last 10 % of time savings.•Mini-grid electricity, cooking fuels, and solar water heaters enable the first 90 %.
