The Atlantic coast of Europe has very high demand for maritime transport, with important commercial ports and tourist areas that emit significant amounts of greenhouse gas emissions. In an effort to ...address this, the impact of electric and H2 ships for freight and passenger transport along the Atlantic coast on the European energy system in 2050 is analyzed. An optimized energy supply model is applied, which envisions a cost-optimal infrastructure with 100% renewable energy across all of Europe, employing hydrogen as an energy vector. To achieve this target, a minimization of the total annual costs to supply electricity and hydrogen demands is carried out. The obtained results indicate that Ireland will play a key role as a hydrogen supplier as ship demand rises, increasing onshore and electrolyzer capacities, mainly due to comparable low-cost renewable electricity production. The preferred supply routes for Irish hydrogen will be pipelines through the United Kingdom and France to export energy to continental Europe. An increase in salt cavern storage capacity in the United Kingdom, central Europe and Spain is observed. H2 and electricity are shown to be essential for the deployment of more sustainable maritime transport and related activities on the European Atlantic coast.
•Impact of electrical and hydrogen demand of ships on the Atlantic coast of Europe.•Cost-optimal energy system with a 100% renewable energy European scenario in 2050.•Ireland has a key role as hydrogen supplier with onshore turbines and electrolyzers.•H2 from Ireland and United Kingdom supplied to continental Europe through pipelines.•Salt caverns reinforced to balance the energy system with higher hydrogen demand.
The UK government has set a groundbreaking target of a 60% reduction in carbon dioxide (CO
2) emissions by 2050. Scenario and modelling assessment of this stringent target consistently finds that all ...sectors need to contribute to emissions reductions. The UK residential sector accounts for around 30% of the total final energy use and more than one-quarter of CO
2 emissions. This paper focuses on modelling of the residential sector in a system wide energy–economy models (UK MARKAL) and key UK sectoral housing stock models. The UK residential energy demand and CO
2 emission from the both approaches are compared. In an energy system with 60% economy-wide CO
2 reductions, the residential sector plays a commensurate role. Energy systems analysis finds this reduction is primarily driven by energy systems interactions notably decarbonisation of the power sector combined with increased appliance efficiency. The stock models find alternate decarbonisation pathways based on assumptions related to the future building stock and behavioural changes. The paper concludes with a discussion on the assumptions and drivers of emission reductions in different models of the residential energy sector.
review of social dynamics in complex energy systems models Dall-Orsoletta, Alaize; Uriona-Maldonado, Mauricio; Dranka, Géremi ...
International journal of sustainable energy planning and management,
12/2022, Volume:
36
Journal Article
Peer reviewed
Open access
The problem of techno-economic approaches to evaluating energy transition pathways has been constantly reported in the literature. Existing research recognises the critical role played by social ...aspects in energy systems models. System dynamics (SD) has been pointed out among modelling techniques as a suitable tool to evaluate the interdisciplinary nature of energy transitions. This paper explores how energy system-related SD models have incorporated social aspects through a literature review. Models were assessed based on their geographical resolution, time horizon, methodological approach, and main themes: supply-demand, energy-economy-environment (3E), energy-transport, water-energy-food (WEF) nexus, and consumer-centric and socio-political dynamics. Social aspects considered include behaviour and lifestyle changes, social acceptance, willingness to participate, socio-economic measures, among others. As expected, the representation of social aspects was not standard among the papers analysed. Socio-economic aspects were most commonly included in supply-demand and 3E models. Energy-transport and WEF models mainly incorporated changes in travel and consumption habits, respectively. The last theme had a more diverse approach to social aspects that deserves further attention, especially for energy access and justice issues. Other research lines include modelling approaches combination, enhanced participatory and transparent processes during model development, and use of SD models in policy-aiding and stakeholders’ information processes.
This paper constructs an economic dispatch model of an integrated energy system including grid, wind power, photovoltaic and energy storage devices based on combined cooling, heating and power ...system, and optimizes the dispatch model based on improved krill swarm optimization algorithm with the system integrated cost as the objective function, taking into account the electric power balance constraint, cooling and heating load balance constraint and each micro-source output constraint. The simulation results show that the improved krill swarm algorithm can reduce the daily integrated cost by $124.1 and $50.3 respectively, which can save 9.5% and 3.9% of the daily integrated cost compared with the conventional krill swarm algorithm and the artificial bee colony algorithm. The constructed integrated energy system model can effectively improve the energy utilization and economic efficiency of the system.
•Different strategies for a coal phase-out in Germany are analyzed.•Even in a BAU scenario, coal-fired power plants decline substantially by 2050.•A GHG mitigation strategy without an early coal ...phase-out is more cost-efficient.
Germany appears set to miss its CO2 reduction target in 2020. As a result, ideas for additional political measures have been put forward. One such idea involves an early phase-out of coal-fired power plants. However, the possible impacts of such a phase-out on the energy system have not yet been fully analyzed. We therefore apply a German energy system model to analyze these impacts. To do so, we calculate three different scenarios. The first represents a business-as-usual scenario, while the second takes a coal phase-out into account. The third scenario has to achieve the same CO2 reduction as the second without being forced to implement a coal phase-out. Our three scenarios show that a definitive coal phase-out by 2040 would result in only a relatively small amount of additional CO2. However, an equal CO2 reduction can be obtained using a different strategy and slightly lower costs. In the latter scenario, the additional costs are also distributed more evenly across the sectors. The sensitivities analyzed show the robustness of the conclusions drawn. In summary, this analysis outlines what consequences could arise by excluding several options in parallel from a technology portfolio.
Energy system models suggest optimal investment pathways and guide policymakers in implementing the low-carbon energy transition. Although model accuracy greatly improved over the last decade, it is ...unclear whether the cost of capital (CoC) is well represented, despite the parameter’s strong influence on model outcomes. In this perspective, we review 58 model-based publications that explicitly refer to CoC and observe that simply stating unfounded assumptions remains the most important “method” for determining the CoC. Overall, there appears to be a clear lack of guiding principles for how to appropriately determine CoC for use within models. To close this gap, we identify four barriers to a more accurate CoC reflection and suggest practical steps for overcoming them, including heuristic guidelines to support modelers in determining when differentiated CoC rates ought to be applied. Overall, we believe more rigorous treatment of the CoC will improve the quality of model-based policy advice.
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The electricity sector is characterized by long-lived assets that require substantial upfront financing. The cost of capital (CoC) is therefore highly influential in determining investment attractiveness. Empirically, the CoC differs between countries and technologies due to different investment risk structures. Policymakers often craft energy transition pathways with the support of energy system models; however, the engagement of the energy system modeling community with (so far mostly empirical) studies on the CoC is very limited. This mismatch therefore affects the quality of model-based results. Against this backdrop, we discuss how CoC is currently incorporated in models and the barriers that stand in the way of more accurate representations. Finally, we present a heuristic support tool for modelers to improve the practice.
Energy system models support policymaking. The relevance of modeling results is subject to meaningful parameterization, including that of the cost of capital (CoC), which strongly affects the financial attractiveness of alternative investment options. However, current modeling practice often fails to thoroughly consider the CoC and the investment risks it represents. Modelers should consider differentiating their CoC by technology, geographic, and macroeconomic trends to reflect how investment risk varies in practice. We provide guidelines to that end.
The Baltic countries Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania are well connected to the Nordic countries Finland and Sweden on the electricity market, yet in a different position facing the transition to a ...low-carbon electricity system. While especially Sweden is a large electricity producer and net exporter, the Baltic countries suffer from a lack of capacity, which makes them highly dependent on trade. In addition, the present electricity mix of Estonia is very carbon intensive compared to the Nordic countries. There is a debate regarding nuclear power in Sweden. This paper explores four possible solutions for a Nordic-Baltic electricity system: with and without nuclear power in Sweden and with the current transmission network, as well as with a considerably expanded network. The impact on electricity mix, electricity prices, carbon dioxide intensity and import dependence in the Baltic countries from the EU transition to electricity systems with very low carbon dioxide emissions is investigated. The electricity and district heat market model Enerallt is used to quantify electricity prices, electricity trade and system costs. The results show that the development of the transmission network affects electricity prices and especially electricity trade in the Baltic countries. With transmission expansion, the demand weighted average prices in the Baltic countries increase from 62 €/MWh to 65 €/MWh and 70 €/MWh with and without nuclear power in Sweden, respectively. If transmission is expanded, phasing out nuclear power in Sweden can increase the revenue from electricity export by over 100% for the Baltic countries. However, significant new investment in wind power is required.
In 2022, Saudi Arabia's anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions amounted to 810 million tons of CO2e. The country has pledged to cut its emissions by 278 million tons of CO2e per year by 2030. This ...paper contributes a modeling view on the climate-related effects of various energy policies on the Saudi energy system. We use an energy system model designed to represent seven sectors in the Saudi economy. In addition to a baseline, which entails the continuation of current domestic policies, we look at a scenario that incorporates some of the plans announced by the Saudi government. We also examine the baseline scenario with a cap on total CO2 emissions equal to those exhibited with the announced plans. The model then makes the necessary decisions to abate CO2. We find that the energy system contributes 130 million tons of CO2e to the nationally determined contribution amount in 2030. Also, a non-prescriptive scenario that caps energy-system CO2 emissions produces the same emissions reductions as the announced plans while lowering the present cost by 2030 by $70 billion. The corresponding implicit marginal abatement cost of CO2 approaches 35 $/tonCO2 by 2045. This cost would displace around half of crude and fuel oil use in the Saudi energy system.
•Saudi Arabia plans to cut annual greenhouse gas emissions by 278 million tonsCO2e.•We use a multi-sector model built from the ground up for Saudi Arabia.•The energy system can contribute 130 million tons of CO2e in reductions in 2030.•We find a scenario that achieves GHG abatement at a lower cost than official plans.•The marginal value attributed to CO2 approaches 35 $ per tonCO2 by 2045.
One option to decarbonise residential heat in the UK is to convert the existing natural gas networks to deliver hydrogen. We review the technical feasibility of this option using semi-structured ...interviews underpinned by a literature review and we assess the potential economic benefits using the UK MARKAL energy systems model. We conclude that hydrogen can be transported safely in the low-pressure pipes but we identify concerns over the reduced capacity of the system and the much lower linepack storage compared to natural gas. New hydrogen meters and sensors would have to be fitted to every building in a hydrogen conversion program and appliances would have to be converted unless the government was to legislate to make them hydrogen-ready in advance.
Converting the gas networks to hydrogen is a lower-cost residential decarbonisation pathway for the UK than those identified previously. The cost-optimal share of hydrogen is sensitive to the conversion cost and to variations in the capital costs of heat pumps and micro-CHP fuel cells. With such small cost differentials between technologies, the decision to convert the networks will also depend on non-economic factors including the relative performance of technologies and the willingness of the government to organise a conversion program.
•We assess the potential benefits of converting the UK gas network to deliver hydrogen.•We review the technical feasibility using interviews and a literature review.•A national program would be required to convert all UK gas appliances and meters.•We examine the economic benefits of conversion using the UK MARKAL energy model.•The lowest-cost decarbonisation strategy uses hydrogen fuel cell micro-CHP.
Optimizing an energy system model featuring a large proportion of variable (non-dispatchable) renewable energy requires a fine temporal resolution and a long period of weather data to provide robust ...results. Many models are optimized over a limited set of ‘representative’ periods (e.g. weeks) but this precludes a realistic representation of long-term energy storage.
To tackle this issue, we introduce a new method based on a variable time-step. Critical periods that may be important for dimensioning part of the electricity system are defined, during which we use an hourly temporal resolution. For the other periods, the temporal resolution is coarser.
This method brings very accurate results in terms of system cost, curtailment, storage losses and installed capacity, even though the optimization time is reduced by a factor of around 60. Results are less accurate for battery volume. We conclude that further research into this ‘variable time-step’ method would be worthwhile.
•Energy system models with large proportion of variable renewable energy require a long period of hourly weather data.•We introduce a new method to reduce the optimization time, based on a variable time-step.•Hourly temporal resolution is used for critical periods, while for the rest the temporal resolution is coarser.•The method brings very accurate results except for battery volume.•The optimization time is reduced by a factor of around 60.
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