Emerging economies are experiencing significant growth, which implies a booming demand for energy, especially electricity. In order to meet the 2050 climate target, this growth will have to rely ...mainly on renewable energy. This contrasts with the fossil fuel-based growth experienced by developed countries. This paper analyses, for the case of Uganda, the difference between a fossil fuel-based energy development and leapfrogging to a renewable one. The analysis covers all energy sectors (electricity, heat and mobility) and shows that priority should be given to heat and mobility. Results show that the cheapest growth is based on fossil energies. Nevertheless, favouring renewable energy is not far from being competitive; not to mention the other positive impacts such as increasing energy sovereignty, increasing national employment and addressing climate change. The work estimates a penalty of 15-30e/ton of CO 2 equivalent is sufficient to achieve the competitiveness of a highly sustainable society.
To decrabonise the entire energy system, introduction of large shares of variable renewable electricity generation will be needed. Long term energy system planing models are useful to improve the ...understanding of the decarbonisation pathways but struggle to take into the account the short term variations associated with the increased penetration of variable renewables. This can generate misleading signals regarding the levels of flexibility required in the system. This paper addresses this gap by a innovative bi-directional soft-linking methodology between a long term whole-energy system planing model (EnergyScope) and a multi-sectoral unit commitment and power dispatch model (Dispa-SET). The proposed methodology assesses the integration of short term variability, sizes the flexibility needs and analyses its strengths, limitations and applicability. Results of this study show that convergence criteria of the bi-directional soft-linking are met within two iterations meaning that the newly proposed system is stable and reliable.
Assessments of global warming mitigation technologies are important for achieving the Kyoto target and planning post-Kyoto regimes. Regional differences in energy resources, growth in energy ...consumption, current technology diffusions, etc. should be considered in the assessments. A global energy systems model, DNE21+, with high regional resolution had treated the energy supply sectors in a bottom-up fashion and the end-use sectors in a top-down fashion, which was expressed by using a long-term price elasticity. In order to evaluate the technological options not only in the energy supply sectors but also in the end-use sectors for energy savings and CO2 emission reductions, the DNE21+ has been modified for treating two energy-intensive end-use sectors, namely, steel and cement sectors, in the bottom-up fashion. The total emission from the steel and cement sectors accounts for 9.6% of the global anthropogenic GHG emissions.
This study evaluated global impacts of current climate and energy policies (CPs) in major economies and the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) on global energy-related CO2 emission and energy ...systems by using a global energy systems model: DNE21+. CPs could contribute to reduction of global cumulated energyrelated CO2 emissions in 2011-2030 by 41 Gt-CO2 relative to baseline, and achieve about half of the target of that of NDCs. Expansion of renewables and improvement of energy efficiency in power and transportation sectors are mainly promoted in an NDC scenario in consideration of CPs. Compared with an optimized scenario which focuses only on CO2 emissions reduction, measures taken in power and transportation sectors for the NDC scenario seem excessive and increase measure costs of climate mitigation. Comprehensive measures, e.g., increase of gas-fired power plants including carbon capture and storage and nuclear power plants, improvement of energy efficiency in industry sector, and increase of gas use and electrification in residential and commercial sector are assessed to be cost-efficient. Although energy policies do not always aim at climate mitigation, coherent and inclusive policy design by considering cost-efficient global decarbonization and other national policy objectives in order to achieve sustainable development will become significantly important under the Paris Agreement.
Fossil fuel thermal power plants constitute a large part of the Turkish electricity generation capacity. Turkish government has been developing several energy policy documents to evaluate how various ...renewable energy sources of the country can be utilized optimally in the generation of electricity within the next 30 years. This study considers three scenarios in the transition to renewable energy for Turkey; the business as usual (BAU), energy conservation (EC) and renewable energy (REN) scenarios. EC scenario considers the use of energy-efficient appliances and imposing a carbon tax, whereas REN scenario considers increasing the share of the renewable energy sources as much as possible in the power generation mix. These scenarios were evaluated in terms of cost and environmental impact. The LEAP (Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning Model) was used in the research. The REN scenario has been shown to be the optimal energy policy option for Turkey in terms of cost and environmental impact.