Historical electrical disturbances highlight the impact of extreme weather on power system resilience. Even though the occurrence of such events is rare, the severity of their potential impact calls ...for developing suitable resilience assessment techniques to capture their impacts and assessing relevant strategies to mitigate them. This paper aims to provide fundamentals insights on the modeling and quantification of power systems resilience. Specifically, a fragility model of individual components and then of the whole transmission system is built for mapping the real-time impact of severe weather, with focus on wind events, on their failure probabilities. A probabilistic multitemporal and multiregional resilience assessment methodology, based on optimal power flow and sequential Monte Carlo simulation, is then introduced, allowing the assessment of the spatiotemporal impact of a windstorm moving across a transmission network. Different risk-based resilience enhancement (or adaptation) measures are evaluated, which are driven by the resilience achievement worth index of the individual transmission components. The methodology is demonstrated using a test version of the Great Britain's system. As key outputs, the results demonstrate how, by using a mix of infrastructure and operational indices, it is possible to effectively quantify system resilience to extreme weather, identify and prioritize critical network sections, whose criticality depends on the weather intensity, and assess the technical benefits of different adaptation measures to enhance resilience.
Measuring and enabling resiliency of electric distribution systems with increasing weather and cyber events are important. Some of the extreme events (e.g. Earthquakes, Hurricanes) and associated ...paths are predicted and monitored closely in advance and allow to take pre-event proactive control actions. The Distribution Phasor Measurement Units (D-PMUs) provide new opportunities and supporting such proactive actions. A synchrophasor based resiliency driven pre-event reconfiguration can ensure minimizing impact of the expected event on the power distribution system and associated performance. However, the D-PMUs will also face challenges in terms of data quality similar to the transmission PMUs. The focus of this paper is to provide data mining approaches for anomaly detection in D-PMUs and proposing resiliency-driven pre-event reconfiguration with islanding as a proactive mechanisms to minimize the impact of adverse events on system using processed synchrophasors data. Results are validated for real industrial feeders and test cases with satisfactory response.
We demonstrate an inverse relationship between women's financial equality status with men (as proxied by gender wage gap), and women's entrepreneurship participation at the U.S. state level. Gender ...wage gap affects women's opportunity cost of the entrepreneurship decision. In states where women's status is lower, women's opportunity cost of becoming an entrepreneur is lower because their wages are lower, increasing women's entrepreneurship participation. We also demonstrate that states' demographics are important factors, but only education is specific to women. Collectively, we find that women choose to be entrepreneurial when their status is lower, which reflects women's economic resiliency.
The operation of multiple microgrids (MGs) in coordination with distribution system enables high penetration of locally available distributed energy resources (DERs). This approach enhances the ...reliability and resiliency of the power supply significantly. Also, the overall cost of energy gets reduced because of the integration of cost-free power from photovoltaic panels and wind turbines. The most effective utilization of DERs can be achieved through networked MGs. However, the implementation of the concepts of networked MGs requires extensive research. This paper presents a comprehensive literature review of the most important research works on networked MGs. Major benefits and challenges related to this new and highly exploring area have been analyzed. Also, some of the most important research areas related to networked MGs have been highlighted and discussed as the future perspectives.
Several catastrophic experiences of extreme weather events show that boosting the power grid resilience is becoming increasingly critical. This paper discusses a unified resilience evaluation and ...operational enhancement approach, which includes a procedure for assessing the impact of severe weather on power systems and a novel risk-based defensive islanding algorithm. This adaptive islanding algorithm aims to mitigate the cascading effects that may occur during weather emergencies. This goes beyond the infrastructure-based measures that are traditionally used as a defense to severe weather. The resilience assessment procedure relies on the concept of fragility curves, which express the weather-dependent failure probabilities of the components. A severity risk index is used to determine the application of defensive islanding, which considers the current network topology and the branches that are at higher risk of tripping due to the weather event. This preventive measure boosts the system resilience by splitting the network into stable and self-adequate islands in order to isolate the components with higher failure probability, whose tripping would trigger cascading events. The proposed approach is illustrated using a simplified version of the Great Britain transmission network, with focus on assessing and improving its resilience to severe windstorms.
Network operators and utilities are challenged with increasing extreme weather conditions, resulting in interrupted power supply to critical loads. Resiliency metrics, which can capture the level of ...preparedness to resist adverse impact of extreme conditions on a distribution system, can be leveraged in multiple ways to provide better operation of the network and design of the future systems. In this paper, a methodology to quantify resiliency and maintain power supply to critical loads (CLs) during extreme contingencies has been proposed. Resiliency evaluation of power distribution system has been defined as a multi-criteria decision making problem and quantified using graph theoretic approach and Choquet integral. The algorithm proposed in this paper to calculate the resiliency for all feasible network configurations supplying CLs in a network is useful in planning as well as operation of the distribution network. The application of the proposed algorithm is demonstrated through several case studies using two proximal CERTS microgrids and IEEE 123 node distribution system. Simulation studies are also provided for planning of resilient network, by placing additional switches in the considered distribution systems with microgrid.
Anticipatory Governance Quay, Ray
Journal of the American Planning Association,
9/29/2010, Volume:
76, Issue:
4
Journal Article
Peer reviewed
Problem: Human and natural systems will probably have to adapt to climate change impacts, but this cannot be planned for using the traditional approach based on predictions because of the subject's ...great complexity, its planning horizon more than 50 years away, and uncertainty about the future climate and how effectively CO
2
emissions will be reduced.
Purpose: This article proposes a more appropriate basis for planning climate change adaptation. Anticipatory governance is a flexible decision framework that uses a wide range of possible futures to prepare for change and to guide current decisions toward maximizing future alternatives or minimizing future threats. Rather than trying to tame or ignore uncertainty, this approach explores uncertainty and its implications for current and future decision making.
Methods: I review and summarize the literature on anticipatory governance and provide three case studies to demonstrate its application to climate change planning.
Results and conclusions: Denver Water, New York City, and the City of Phoenix are all using scenarios to anticipate the range of global climate changes that may impact their communities and to develop adaptation strategies to address these impacts. Each is developing a decision framework for implementing adaptation strategies incrementally based on climate monitoring. An incremental approach minimizes the resources that must be allocated to address these risks and has allowed these cities to plan in spite of the high uncertainty associated with climate change science and social change.
Takeaway for practice: The complexity, uncertainty, and distant planning horizon associated with climate change cannot be managed sufficiently for the traditional predict-and-plan approach to yield good decisions about the significant social and capital investments likely to be required for adaptation. To be successful, social institutions must embrace new methods that explore uncertainty and that provide strategic guidance for current and future decisions.
Research support: None.
Energy resiliency has been thrust to the forefront by recent severe weather events and natural disasters. Billions of dollars are lost each year due to power outages. This article highlights the ...unique value renewable energy hybrid systems (REHS), comprised of solar, energy storage, and generators, provide in increasing resiliency. We present a methodology to quantify the amount and value of resiliency provided by REHS, and ways to monetize this resiliency value through insurance premium discounts. A case study of buildings in New York City demonstrates how implementing REHS in place of traditional backup diesel generators can double the amount of outage survivability, with an added value of $781,200. For a Superstorm Sandy type event, results indicate that insurance premium reductions could support up to 4% of the capital cost of REHS, and the potential exists to prevent up to $2.5 billion in business interruption losses with increased REHS deployment.
The upheaval wrought on the U.S. beef industry by the global COVID-19 pandemic carried with it several lessons that might help improve resiliency should there be a reoccurrence. First, the futures ...market for fed cattle fell well before cash prices, which sent a signal to market cattle early, and those who did so benefited. Second, the decline in futures anticipated the closure of slaughter plants and provided an opportunity to purchase and store beef primals in anticipation of future scarcity. Third, the beef industry has ways of slowing or stopping the pipeline of animals destined for feed yards and can “store” these animals in background feeding facilities or on pasture or rangeland. Producers who waited to sell feeder cattle benefited from higher feeder cattle prices once the processing facilities reopened. Fourth, cow slaughter plants responded to the pandemic and subsequent scarcity of labor much better than large fed-cattle plants. Cow plants are not as sophisticated and complex as fed-cattle plants. This relative simplicity may help explain the superior performance of these plants during the crisis. Sixth, the academic work on the value of building smaller plants as a response against concentration provides mixed results—these plants require more labor per animal and can be even more susceptible to labor scarcity. Seventh, the observed increase in boxed beef prices, even as fed cattle prices fell, demonstrates the risk-mitigating impact of producer ownership of downstream activities in the value chain.
Reconfiguring power distribution after an outage is commonly performed to restore service to the maximum number of end-use customers. However, the ability to reconfigure the system can be constrained ...due to voltage and thermal limits on equipment. This paper presents two transactive approaches that can be deployed to increase operational flexibility through mitigation of local constraints (voltage and thermal) by engaging the reactive-power capabilities of non-utility resources to increase the number of switching options and load restoration. The first approach enables energizing additional line segments, and the second approach enables reducing the voltage differential across reclosers enabling additional switching options. The developed methods are demonstrated on a model of an operational 12.47-kV distribution system with four distribution circuits and 3000+ electrical nodes. Simulations are conducted using the Hierarchical Engine for Large-scale Infrastructure Co-Simulation (HELICS)-based framework to evaluate the effectiveness of the two methods to improve system reconfiguration. The performance of the developed transactive algorithms is evaluated under a range of operating conditions, including both normal and outage conditions. The proposed transactive approaches resulted in additional switching options for the distribution system operator, which, in-turn, yielded to an increase in additional load restored thereby improving the resiliency of the distribution system.
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