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•Species distribution modeling is a powerful tool to support forest management.•SDM can be used to forecast climate change impact on forests.•A wide range of algorithms are used and ...many modeling tools were developed.•Uncertainties connected to climate change and future projections must be included.
Species Distribution Modelling (SDM) techniques were originally developed in the mid-1980s. In this century they are gaining increasing attention in the literature and in practical use as a powerful tool to support forest management strategies especially under climate change. In this review paper we consider species occurrence datasets, climatic and soil predictor variables, modelling algorithms, evaluation methods and widely used software for SDM studies. We describe several important and freely available sources for species occurrence and interpolated climatic data. We outline the use of both presence-only and presence/absence modelling algorithms including distance-based algorithms, machine learning algorithms and regression-based models. We conclude that SDM techniques provide a valuable asset for forest managers. However, it is essential to consider uncertainties behind the use of future climate change scenarios.
We report a case of erucism provoked by the Automeris egeus Cramer caterpillar and update the distribution of caterpillar poisoning in Brazil, showing the regions with the highest incidence rates. We ...also correlated the incidence rate with anthropic impact rates in all Brazilian municipalities, taking as a reference the Human Footprint Index. The victim presented erucism, burning pain, itching, and local hyperthermia. The highest incidence rates were in southern Brazil. We suggest including A. egeus in the Brazilian list of animals with medical importance, and that Brazilian Ministry of Health indicates the genus of the animals involved in envenomation events on its platform.
Purpose
Using a combination of the geographical information system (GIS) and the Canadian water quality index (WQI), the current study sought to provide a long-term general assessment of the water ...quality of the Shatt Al-Arab River (SAAR), focusing on its suitability for living organisms. Likewise, SPSS statistics was used to develop a nonlinear WQI regression model for the study area.
Design/methodology/approach
The study required four decades of data collection on some environmental characteristics of river water. After that, calculate the WQI and conduct the spatial analysis. Eight variables in total, including water temperature, dissolved oxygen, potential hydrogen ions, electrical conductivity (EC), biological oxygen demand, turbidity, nitrate and phosphate, were chosen to calculate the WQI.
Findings
Throughout the study periods, the WQI values varied from 55.2 to 79.83, falling into the categories of four (marginal) and three (fair), with the sixth period (2007–2008) showing the most decline. The present research demonstrated that the high concentration of phosphates, the high EC values, and minor changes in the other environmental factors are the major causes of the decline in water quality. The variations in ecological variables' overlap are a senior contributor to changes in water quality in general. Notably, using GIS in conjunction with the WQI has shown to be very effective in reducing the time and effort spent on investigating water quality while obtaining precise findings and information at the lowest possible expense. Calibration and validation of the developed model showed that this model had a perfect estimate of the WQI value. Due to its flexibility and impartiality, this study recommends using the proposed model to estimate and predict the WQI in the study area.
Originality/value
Even though the water quality of the SAAR has been the subject of numerous studies, this is the only long-term investigation that has been done to evaluate and predict its water quality.
Contemporary urbanization has been reorganizing the territories and the socioeconomic relations in the Brazilian Amazon as a whole. We seek to identify a general typology of relationships between ...urbanization and deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon, in the light of the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) theory. We have applied this approach to the 144 municipalities of Pará, in the Brazilian Amazon, in the inter-census interval from 2000 to 2010. The EKC approach included the spatial analysis method of geographically weighted regressions (GWR). Deforestation, measured by the PRODES program by Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE), was used as a measure of environmental degradation and the urbanization has been restricted to a socioeconomic characterizing, based on a set of 22 variables from the national census database, aggregated at the municipalities level. The results showed two main typologies: (1) the decreasing monotonic and (2) "U" shape. The first one indicates municipalities with urban-based economies that have in their income composition an important share of an economy based on the historical structural diversity of the Amazon rural production systems. The second one indicates municipalities with urban-based economies in which the income composition points to an agrarian economy based on rural production systems supported by large, intensified, and homogeneous landscapes that have established a predatory relationship with natural resources. We argue that these two typologies found can be used to establish two city models: "cities of the forest," where it would be possible to combine the local traditional knowledge with scientific and technological advances, mediated by the city life, and "cities in the forest," where the urban-industrial development strategy that has been changing the relationship between society and nature since the 1950s is in place and still very much alive.
The map of Moravia (1569) by the renowned Vienna scholar, Paulus Fabricius (ca. 1528-1589), is still considered to be the oldest known cartographic representation of Moravia. This paper focuses on ...the cartographic analysis of the map with the aim to identify possible methods of its construction with regard to some known circumstances of its origin. The author of the map mentions in the appended texts that he travelled through Moravia several times. The methodology of the work is based on selected spatial analyses of the positional and height aspects of displayed settlements. The achieved results are compared and discussed in the context of other information sources, especially the existing settlement structure and contemporary communication network. The conclusions reveal a correlation between the density of the depicted settlements and the proximity of a modelled communication network. The orographic conditions of Moravia have a significant influence on the map content. The plains are covered in detail, hilly lands and highlands are rarely and randomly mapped, whereas the mountains are not described at all. In the peripheral parts of the area of interest, the author probably worked only with data from travel itineraries. With regard to achieved results, it can be assumed that there is potential to apply the established procedures to the analysis of old maps of similar type. Unlike later maps, they are based on the author's travelling experiences and impressions, rather than on complex measurements of geographical coordinates.
Karta Moravske (1569) glasovitog bečkog učenjaka Paula Fabricija (Paul Fabricius, oko 1528−1589) još uvijek se smatra najstarijim poznatim kartografskim prikazom Moravske. Ovaj se rad bavi kartografskom analizom te karte s ciljem utvrđivanja mogućih metoda njezine izrade s obzirom na neke poznate okolnosti njezina nastanka. Autor karte u priloženim tekstovima navodi da je više puta putovao kroz Moravsku. Metodologija rada temelji se na odabranim prostornim analizama naselja na karti u nizinskom i gorskom dijelu. Ostvareni se rezultati uspoređuju i raspravljaju u kontekstu drugih izvora informacija, posebice postojeće strukture naselja i suvremene komunikacijske mreže. Zaključci otkrivaju korelaciju između gustoće prikazanih naselja i blizine modelirane komunikacijske mreže. Orografski uvjeti Moravske imaju značajan utjecaj na sadržaj karte. Nizine su detaljno obrađene, srednje su nadmorske visine rijetko i nasumično kartirane, dok gorje uopće nije opisano. U rubnim dijelovima područja interesa autor je vjerojatno radio samo s podatcima iz itinerera putovanja. S obzirom na postignute rezultate, može se pretpostaviti da postoji potencijal za primjenu utvrđenih postupaka na analizu starih karata sličnog tipa. Za razliku od kasnijih karata, one se temelje na autorovim iskustvima i dojmovima s putovanja, a ne na složenim mjerenjima geografskih koordinata.
•A framework to assessed vulnerability of the water resources system was proposed.•The vulnerability of the water resources system was quantified.•This research enriches the vulnerability analysis of ...the LRB.•The vulnerability of LRB was on the rise, and the rate of rise increased over time.
The Lancang River (Upper Mekong), originated from Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, is the main water source for Southeast Asia countries. In recent years, people have paid more and more attention to the impact of climate change and human activities on the Lancang River water resources system. Due to external disturbances, the vulnerability of water resources in the Lancang River Basin (LRB) is also changing, leading to an increase in the probability of possible risks. This study proposes an assessment framework to evaluate water resources system vulnerability and analyze its dynamic change in the LRB during 1998–2014. Quantitative approaches for calculation of sensitivity, exposure, hazard and adaptability are respectively formulated, which highlight the impacts of natural and anthropogenic interference on water resources. Specific management strategies are put forward based on the spatial recognition of water resources system vulnerable areas in the LRB. The results indicate that the sensitivity and exposure of the LRB show an upward trend, while the adaptive capacity shows a downward trend during 1998–2014. The vulnerability of the LRB is at low level currently. However, fluctuations in its vulnerability have increased over time. As a whole, the vulnerability displays a high-to-low gradient from southeast to northwest of the LRB during the study period, the Dali region is the most vulnerable region in the LRB. The areas with high vulnerability are distributed in the southeast of the study area, mainly in the mainstream areas with characterization of frequent human interferences, tend to increase persistently. Based on the results, some suggestions targeted at different vulnerable areas were proposed. This study maps the spatiotemporal characteristics of the water resource vulnerability in the LRB, which reveals hotspot areas from climate-related threats and can provide useful information to improve the adaptation and resilience of the water resources system.
•We present a curated list of R packages useful in ecological niche models.•We compiled 60 R packages, organised by the four main modelling stages.•We present a concise history of the development of ...these packages.•Model calculation is the stage with more packages.•Model evaluation and validation is the stage with less packages.
The R language provides most applications (packages) currently available for ecological niche modelling. In the last few years, these packages have increased substantially. There are now numerous packages for computing ecological niche models (ENMs) with different algorithms, comparing species niches and niche models, creating virtual species, getting and preparing species and related environmental data, filtering species records, and evaluating models, amongst other tasks. This profusion of package options may be daunting for both beginners and more experienced R users. Here we provide an organised and annotated list of available packages for each task. We present a concise history of the creation of these packages, we briefly describe what each package does, and we discuss whether the current set of R packages covers all the necessities for modelling species’ ecological niches. This list will be accessible and updated over time on a dedicated website.
With the globalisation process, economic, social and political structures have become more and more intertwined. Due to the current Covid-19 pandemic, it has been observed that epidemics such as ...Covid-19 are globalising and that they turn into pandemics on a global scale. In this study, it is suggested that, along with Covid-19’s distinctive abilities such as spreading rapidly, the fact that the world has become more mobile and integrated due to globalisation is considered to have an impact on the pandemic; thus, the effect of globalisation on Covid-19 cases in European countries was investigated through spatial analysis methods. The results of Moran’s I test carried out on Covid-19 cases in European countries suggest that there is positive autocorrelation. According to the LISA analysis results, it was found that the UK, the Netherlands, France, and Belgium not only have a higher number of Covid-19 cases, but also have been affected by the countries with a number of cases above the European mean. According to the results of Spatial Error Model designed to examine the effect of globalisation, it was found that globalisation had a slight but positive effect on Covid-19 cases in Europe.
With the globalisation process, economic, social and political structures have become more and more intertwined. Due to the current Covid-19 pandemic, it has been observed that epidemics such as ...Covid-19 are globalising and that they turn into pandemics on a global scale. In this study, it is suggested that, along with Covid-19’s distinctive abilities such as spreading rapidly, the fact that the world has become more mobile and integrated due to globalisation is considered to have an impact on the pandemic; thus, the effect of globalisation on Covid-19 cases in European countries was investigated through spatial analysis methods. The results of Moran’s I test carried out on Covid-19 cases in European countries suggest that there is positive autocorrelation. According to the LISA analysis results, it was found that the UK, the Netherlands, France, and Belgium not only have a higher number of Covid-19 cases, but also have been affected by the countries with a number of cases above the European mean. According to the results of Spatial Error Model designed to examine the effect of globalisation, it was found that globalisation had a slight but positive effect on Covid-19 cases in Europe.
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