While statistical analysis of the origins and stability of democracy has received a great deal of scholarly effort, and made major contributions to comparative politics, valid causal inference in ...this tradition remains exceptionally difficult and, perhaps, elusive. Three important challenges create difficulty for scholars who seek to assess the state of knowledge in this domain. First, most existing work on the origins of democracy starts (often without any explicit discussion) from the supposition that the key causes of democracy are largely randomly assigned. Second, much existing literature is far from specific about which of many methodological changes produces a new finding - making it hard for scholars to know how to interpret any resulting changes in the causal inference. Finally standards for credible statistical research have evolved and improved over time, requiring scholars to periodically decrement the credibility they attach to existing findings. This essay closes with ideas about how research in this domain might be improved by closer attention to detail and replication, by greater use of alternative strategies for causal inference including forward path analysis, and by a broader use of contemporary statistical tools for optimal multivariate description.
The subject of the article’s study are the statistics on the volume of sales of four hundred leading Russian companies, consolidated by media holding «Expert», on the eve of the adoption of the order ...of the Russian Federation Government (July 28, 2017 № 1632-p) on the approval of the national program «Digital economy of the Russian Federation». The main program’s objective is the process transformation of real export-oriented Russia economy into a digital economy. The transformation process implies gross domestic product should be generated by the production of mainly «virtual» goods. Thus, the economy digitalization implies the reorientation the productive forces of society from the production and transformation of material objects to the production and transformation of numerical arrays sphere that are stored, processed and transmitted through modern IT-infrastructure. The extent to which the economy and industry of the Russian Federation are ready for such a transformation, the state of social and productive forces to support the process of the real export-oriented economy of Russia transformation into a digital one, can be indirectly estimated by the sales volume of leading Russian companies. It is assumed that the higher the share of IT-oriented industries and companies in the total volume of leading domestic companies, the higher the degree of transformation of resource-oriented and material-intensive economy into digital economy. If we assume that banking services constitute the main part of the modern digital economy along with IT companies and mobile data transmission companies, their share in comparison with the resource companies of the top ten leading Russian companies will be more than a third percents of the sales volume. That situation makes it possible to talk about a confident process of digital transformation of the Russian economy.
The dynamics of the main statistical indicators of the marketing policy of oil extraction plants in Ukraine has been characterized to identify possible development strategies for the stages in the ...life cycle of a business and a way of achievement of competitive advantages. The effect of different approaches to the composition of cost of sales in accordance with the selected marketing policy on the financial results has been shown. The adjustment to the selling expenses to ensure the planned volume of sales and the optimal financial result have been proposed. The subaccounts to synthetic account number 93 "Expenses for sale" have been proposed to reflect allocation of cost of sales between the reporting and future periods for actual realized and unrealized products (goods, works, services) resulting in a more accurate reflection of financial results from realisation of production (goods, works, services). For the basis for allocation of distribution costs it is proposed to use the specific weight of sold products (goods, works, services) in total volume of products (goods, works, services) to be implemented.
The WIG20 index–the index of the 20 biggest companies traded on the Warsaw Stock Exchange–reached the global maximum on 29th October 2007. I have used the local DFA (Detrended Functional Analysis) to ...obtain the Hurst exponent (diffusion exponent) and investigate the signature of anti-correlation of share price evolution around the maximum. The analysis was applied to the share price evolution for variable DFA parameters. For many values of parameters, the evidence of anti-correlation near the WIG20 maximum was pointed out.
► I investigated the global maximum of the Warsaw Stock Exchange WIG20 index. ► Using the local DFA, I examined the level of anti-correlation near the maximum. ► The analysis was applied to the share price evolution for variable DFA parameters. ► For many values of parameters, the evidence of anti-correlation was pointed out. ► The analysis was made for relatively small and young Stock Exchange.
Editors' Note: This conversation covers the extensive contributions of John C. Gower to statistical methodology, computing and applications. It also touches on the pioneering development of ...statistical computing at Rothamsted Experimental Station and the relevant work of Frank Yates, John Nelder and others who were at Rothamsted. See also the accompanying paper by John Gower (1985) on developments in statistical computing at Rothamsted (see Note 1) and the epilogue from Roger Payne.
The important evolution of statistical research in Italy and the Bank of Italy's indebtedness to the statistical profession are noted. The Bank of Italy's collection, dissemination and use of ...statistical data are discussed. It is explained how the analysis of statistically established facts is the precondition for economic policy decisions although such decisions rarely follow unequivocally and mechanically from such analysis. JEL: E58, C50
A Conversation with Samad Hedayat Hedayat, Samad; Martin, Ryan; Stufken, John ...
Statistical science,
11/2016, Volume:
31, Issue:
4
Journal Article
Peer reviewed
Open access
A. Samad Hedayat was born on July 11, 1937, in Jahrom, Iran. He finished his undergraduate education in bioengineering with honors from the University of Tehran in 1962 and came to the U.S. to study ...statistics at Cornell, completing his Ph.D. in 1969. Just a few years later, in 1974, Samad accepted a full professor position at the University of Illinois at Chicago Circle—now called University of Illinois at Chicago (UIC)—and was named UIC Distinguished Professor in 2003. He was an early leader in the Department of Mathematics, Statistics and Computer Science and he remains a driving force to this day. Samad has also made substantial contributions in terms of research and service to the field, as evidenced by his numerous honors: he is an elected member of the International Statistical Institute, a fellow of the Institute of Mathematical Statistics and the American Statistical Association and an honorary member of the Iranian Mathematical Society, among others. This conversation, which was conducted in September 2015 and May 2016, touches on Professor Hedayat's career, and the past, present and future of statistics. In keeping with one of his great passions, it also offers an abundance of advice for students and junior faculty.
The notion of a 'commune' has become a part of evolutionistic view on social development over the course of 19th-20th cc. and heavily influenced various fields of Social Sciences and Humanities. The ...Russian statisticians have also accepted the category of a commune while they were investigating the Russian peasants' household budgets. This theoretical pattern was also applied to Kazakh land tenure during the carrying out the Russian colonial project on searching land 'surpluses' for Russian settlers in the Kazakh steppes. In particular, it was used in the statistical research "Materials on Kirgiz land tenure collected and developed by the expedition for research of the Steppe area" under Fedor Shcherbina's leadership (1896-1903).
In fact, the statisticians could not identify the commune borders among the nomads as those borders were very conditional. As a result, the surveyors turned from investigating commune to their creation. Soon the maps on Kazakh land tenure were made and 'communes' were established on the juridical base. After finishing that statistical research those invented communes served for colonial authorities as the ground for ceasing land in favor of the Russian peasants.
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