We study how the marginal welfare gain from increasing the unemployment insurance (UI) benefit level varies over the business cycle. We do this by estimating how the moral hazard cost and the ...consumption smoothing benefit of UI vary with labour market conditions, which we identify using variation in the interaction of UI benefit levels with the unemployment rate within U.S. states over time. We find that the moral hazard cost is procyclical, greater when the unemployment rate is relatively low. By contrast, we do not find evidence that the consumption smoothing benefit varies with the unemployment rate. We use these empirical results to estimate the marginal welfare gain, and we find that it is modest on average, but varies positively with the unemployment rate.
This paper provides new evidence on job search intensity of the unemployed in the U.S., modeling job search intensity as time allocated to job search activities. The major findings are: 1) the ...average U.S. unemployed worker devotes about 41
min to job search on weekdays, which is substantially more than their European counterparts; 2) workers who expect to be recalled by their previous employer search substantially less than the average unemployed worker; 3) across the 50 states and D.C., job search is inversely related to the generosity of unemployment benefits, with an elasticity between −1.6 and −2.2; 4) job search intensity for those eligible for Unemployment Insurance (UI) increases prior to benefit exhaustion; and 5) time devoted to job search is fairly constant regardless of unemployment duration for those who are ineligible for UI.
Contrary to standard search models predictions, past studies have not found a positive effect of unemployment insurance (UI) on reemployment wages. We estimate a positive UI wage effect exploiting an ...age-based regression discontinuity design in Austria. A search model incorporating duration dependence predicts two countervailing forces: UI induces workers to seek higher-wage jobs, but reduces wages by lengthening unemployment. Matching-function heterogeneity plausibly generates a negative relationship between the UI unemployment-duration and wage effects, which holds empirically in our sample and across studies, reconciling disparate wage-effect estimates. Empirically, UI raises wages by improving reemployment firm quality and attenuating wage drops.
More than 2 years after the official end of the Great Recession, the labor market remains historically weak. One candidate explanation is supply-side effects driven by dramatic expansions of ...unemployment insurance (UI) benefit durations, to as long as 99 weeks. This paper investigates the effect of these extensions on job search and reemployment. I use the longitudinal structure of the Current Population Survey to construct unemployment exit hazards that vary across states, over time, and between individuals with differing unemployment durations. I then use these hazards to explore a variety of comparisons intended to distinguish the effects of UI extensions from other determinants of employment outcomes. The various specifications yield quite similar results. UI extensions had significant but small negative effects on the probability that the eligible unemployed would exit unemployment.These effects are concentrated among the long-term unemployed. The estimates imply that UI extensions raised the unemployment rate in early 2011 by only about 0.1 to 0.5 percentage point, much less than implied by previous analyses, with at least half of this effect attributable to reduced labor force exit among the unemployed rather than to the changes in reemployment rates that are of greater policy concern.
Türkiye ekonomisinde uzun döneme yayılan büyüme trendine rağmen işsizlik oranlarında istenilen düşüşün sağlanamamış olduğu görülmektedir. Bu durum, ekonomik büyümenin yeterli düzeyde istihdam artışı ...sağlayamadığına yani literatürde bilinen adıyla istihdam yaratmayan büyüme olgusunun varlığına işaret etmektedir. Bu çalışmada 2005-2015 döneminde Türkiye'nin ulusal gelirindeki değişimin işsizlik oranlarında kısa ve uzun dönemde yarattığı dinamik etkiler incelenmiştir. Bu amaca yönelik olarak öncelikle 2008 küresel krizinin değişkenler üzerinde yarattığı kırılmaların incelenmesi için Perron birim kök testi uygulanmış, ardından VAR modeline dayanan etkitepki analizi ve varyans ayrıştırma analizine başvurulmuştur. Ampirik analiz sonucunda belirtilen dönemde ulusal gelirde ortaya çıkan büyümenin işsizliği azaltıcı etkisinin sadece kısa dönemde geçerli olduğu, uzun dönemde ise ekonomik büyümenin işsizlik oranlarını düşürmediği sonucuna ulaşılmıştır.
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