Casting Ballots When Knowing Results Araújo, Victor; Gatto, Malu A.C.
British journal of political science,
10/2022, Volume:
52, Issue:
4
Journal Article
Peer reviewed
Open access
Access to information about candidates' performance has long stood as a key factor shaping voter behaviour, but establishing how it impacts behaviour in real-world settings has remained challenging. ...In the 2018 Brazilian presidential elections, unpredictable technical glitches caused by the implementation of biometrics as a form of identification led some voters to cast ballots after official tallies started being announced. In addition to providing a source of exogenous variation of information exposure, run-off elections also enable us to distinguish between different mechanisms underlying the impact of information exposure. We find strong support for a vote-switching bandwagon effect: information exposure motivates voters to abandon losing candidates and switch support for the frontrunner – a finding that stands in the second round, when only two candidates compete against each other. These findings provide theoretical nuance and stronger empirical support for the mechanisms underpinning the impact of information exposure on voter behaviour.
Voters behave differently in European Parliament (EP) elections compared to national elections because less is at stake in these ‘second‐order’ elections. While this explains the primary ...characteristic of EP elections, it has often led to a conflation of distinct motivations for changing behaviour – namely sincere and protest voting. By distinguishing these motivations, this article addresses the question of when and why voters alter their behaviour in EP elections. In addition, it argues that the degree of politicisation of the EU in the domestic debate shapes the extent to which voters rely on EU, rather than national, considerations. These propositions are tested in a multilevel analysis in 27 countries in the 2009 EP elections. The findings have important implications for understanding why voters change their behaviour between different types of elections.
In post-conflict societies, traumatic experiences can have a profound effect on electoral behaviour. In Northern Ireland, Westminster elections between 2001 and 2017 were marked by the rise of ...hardline parties, but the 2019 election saw a significant shift towards the centre. The centre ground vote soared, resulting in the lowest level of political polarisation since the early 2000s. What are the factors underlying this transition to a moderate vote? Drawing on public opinion surveys and electoral data, we find that Brexit played a crucial role in incentivising voters to support parties prioritising non-sectarian constitutional interests. The findings suggest that voters employ party competition as a balancing mechanism. Our article contributes to the understanding of how individuals in post-conflict societies navigate the complex relationship between violence, politics, and peacebuilding.
We know that political parties play a crucial role in the electoral processes of established democracies. However, we know much less about how this role fades away. In this paper, we study the case ...of Chile, a country that, until a few years ago, was cited as an example of a stable and institutionalized party system. We study how the phenomenon of independent candidates has shaken the national party system. We use two separate strategies to study this phenomenon. First, we measure the marginal effect of the independent label, compared to other party labels, using a conjoint experiment. Our findings show that candidates who are presented as independents have a significant increase in their probability of being chosen. Second, we measure whether this electoral effect relates to party identification. We find that respondents show low animosity towards independent candidates and high animosity towards traditional parties. Furthermore, a majority of the studied population can be classified as negative partisans. These findings suggest that the recent emergence of independent candidates is a result of negative views on parties.
This article investigates how young voters make political choices in the absence of adequate information about the candidates they will vote for. Under conditions of low information, voters often use ...whatever cues they see in the ballot paper to help them make decisions in a short time. This mental process is known as heuristics. Using online experimental methods with two-by-two factorial design, this study examines two forms of heuristics that young voters can use in their political decisions, namely, candidates' appearance and their academic degrees. The results show that only the candidates' academic attainment has a significant effect on the voting preferences of young voters. This academic degree primarily affects voters' intention to vote. However, neither academic titles nor beautiful faces have any effect on voters' willingness to recommend the candidates to others, engage in their campaigns, or contribute to their campaign finances.
This article presents a comprehensive survey of social media usage among Kerala voters across three parliamentary constituencies ( N = 1500). It explores the socio-economic factors influencing both ...online and offline political engagement and sheds light on how social media empowers younger voters by reducing their reliance on traditional influencers. Kerala’s social media trends align with those of developed nations like the USA, in contrast to broader Indian digital and gender divide indicators. The study also delves into the social media strategies of 280 successful candidates in the April 2019 Kerala Legislative Assembly elections, identifying the key factors influencing their electoral success. Notably, Facebook engagement metrics, such as shares and followers, emerge as more significant predictors of candidate winnability than Twitter metrics. The research highlights the profound impact of social media on political communication, perception, youth participation and candidate strategies, ultimately shaping electoral outcomes in Kerala. This study addresses a critical research gap regarding social media use among Kerala voters and the reciprocal strategies adopted by candidates, including the predictive impact on candidates’ performance.
Using data from a nationally representative post-election public opinion survey, the article argues that the electoral losses experienced by the African National Congress (ANC) in the 2016 municipal ...election were a manifestation of an attitudinal shift among the governing party's traditional support base. ANC vote choice was influenced by a combination of performance-based evaluations of the party at both the national and local levels: namely, a growing trust deficit in the ANC and its leadership, and perceived service delivery failures at the local level. The analysis concludes that poor performance and distrust of incumbents, including a sitting president, can have a significant bearing on voter attitudes and behaviour at elections. Moreover, despite the replacement of Jacob Zuma with President Cyril Ramaphosa in December 2017, the ANC will need to continue to address its internal leadership issues and perceptions of corruption to secure substantial victories in future elections.
This study investigates the strength of economic voting in Turkey under various types of governments. A vote equation developed for this purpose, which takes into account all of the key factors ...mentioned in the economic voting literature, shows that voters hold coalition governments less responsible for their economic performance than single-party governments and minor partners of a coalition government less responsible than its major member. These gaps widen as political fragmentation of the government increases. In governments involving many parties and parties with significantly different ideologies, some of the junior coalition members benefit rather than suffer from a bad economy.
•Poor voters are more likely to be recipients of electoral clientelism during elections.•Poor voters who are central in informal family networks are more likely to be targeted compared to those less ...central.•The targeting of poor, central voters does not appear to be driven by beliefs that those voters are easier to monitor and punish.•Access by poor voters to alternative networks further undermines the ability of campaigns to credibly monitor and punish wayward voters.
Why are the poor susceptible to clientelism, and what factors shield them from the influence of vote buying? We explore the role of both formal and informal social networks in shaping the likelihood of being targeted with private inducements. We argue that when the poor lack access to formal social networks, they become increasingly reliant on vote buying channelled through informal networks. To test our theory, we build the informal, family-based network linkages between voters and local politicians spanning a city in the Philippines. We then collect survey data on formal network connections, electoral handouts, and voting behaviour of 900 voters randomly drawn from these family networks. We show first that campaigns disproportionately target poorer voters. We then show that familial ties further influence targeting among poor voters. Finally, we show that access to formal networks such as workers’ associations mitigate voter fears of punishment for failing to reciprocate.
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