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Bilandžić, Mirko; Dokman, Tomislav
Međunarodne studije, 12/2020, Volume: 20, Issue: 1-2Journal Article
Obavještajne pogreške pobuđuju zanimanje šire znanstveno-stručne javnosti zadnjih osamdeset godina i prema određenim procjenama najistraživanija su tema iz područja obavještajnih studija. Temeljna funkcija istraživanja pogrešaka obavještajnih službi usmjerena je partikularno prema unapređenju obavještajnog djelovanja, odnosno minimiziranju obavještajnih pogrešaka u cjelini. Međutim, to područje karakterizira nedostupnost izvornih, to jest primarnih podataka iz srca obavještajne institucije i neposredni uvid u sve faze obavještajnog procesa što predstavlja kontroverzno mjesto u provedbi objektivnog, nepristranog i spoznajnog znanstvenog istraživanja. Unatoč nedostupnosti primarnih podataka, znanstvenici i eksperti iz područja obavještajnih studija koriste se sekundarnim izvorima koji su rezultat institucionalnih istraga koje države provode nakon pojave obavještajne pogreške. Stoga u ovome radu utvrđujemo mogu li se obavještajne pogreške istraživati znanstveno ili analize obavještajnih pogrešaka imaju karakteristike stručne analize. Intelligence failures have aroused the interest of the general scientific and professional public for the past eighty years and, according to certain estimates, are the most researched topic in the field of intelligence studies. The basic function of investigating intelligence failures is directed in particular towards improving intelligence activities, ie minimizing these failures as a whole. However, this area is characterized by the unavailability of primary data from the heart of the intelligence institution and direct insight into all phases of the intelligence process, which is controversial in the implementation of objective, impartial and cognitive scientific research. Despite the lack of primary data, scientists and experts in the field of intelligence studies use secondary sources that are the result of institutional investigations conducted by states after the occurrence of an intelligence failure. Therefore, this paper determines whether intelligence failures can be scientifically analysed, or whether these analyses have features of an expert analysis.
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