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Pitcher, Brian L.; Hamblin, Robert L.
International political science review, 01/1982, Volume: 3, Issue: 1Journal Article
Analyses of political conflict typically concentrate on various structural dimensions and neglect the underlying dynamic processes. In this research, we depart from that practice and take the collective learning process inherent in large-scale and ongoing social conflict as our focus. A mathematical model and its theoretical rationale are developed and evaluated. The model, derived from well-grounded behavioral propositions, assumes that the trend in success/failure rates in this type of conflict is accounted for by the relative learning rates of the parties in conflict. In tests involving several sets of data on conflicts between government and opposition groups in Latin America from 1946 through 1975, the model quite accurately describes the distribution of outcomes. /// Les analyses de conflit politique se concentrent habituellement sur diverses dimensions structurelles et négligent les processus dynamiques qui les sous-tendent. Dans la présente recherche, on s'écarte de cette méthode pour mettre l'accent sur le processus d'apprentissage collectif inhérent au conflit social profond en cours. On élabore et on étudie ensuite un modèle mathématique et le raisonnement correspondant. Le modèle, dérivé de propositions behavioristes fondées, suppose que le pourcentage des succès/échecs dans ce genre de conflit s'explique par les niveaux d'apprentissage relatifs des antagonistes. Dans des tests mettant en cause plusieurs groupes de données sur des conflits entre le gouvernement et les groupes d'opposition en Amérique latine de 1946 à 1975, le modèle décrit de facon assez exacte les résultats.
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