Abstract Metabolic syndrome and lumbar spinal stenosis (LSS) are common age-related diseases. However, the causal relationship between them remains unclear. This study aimed to identify the effects of LSS on metabolic syndrome incidence in community-dwelling adults. This prospective cohort study included participants of the Aizu cohort study (LOHAS) aged < 75 years as of 2008. Participants with metabolic syndrome at baseline were excluded. The primary outcome measure was metabolic syndrome incidence, and the main explanatory variable was the presence of LSS, as assessed by a self-reported questionnaire. A multivariate Cox proportional hazard regression model was used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) for metabolic syndrome incidence during the 6-year follow-up period. Complete-case analyses were compared with the multiple imputation results. Among 1599 participants, 1390 complete cases were analyzed (mean SD age 62.3 9.0 years; females, 734 52.8%). Among those participants, 525 (37.8%) developed metabolic syndrome during the follow-up of 3.89 1.96 years. The presence of LSS was associated with developing metabolic syndrome (HR, 1.41; 95% confidence interval CI 1.02–1.95). Multiple imputation results showed similar trends of those having complete-case data (HR, 1.47; 95% CI 1.08–2.00). This finding suggests the importance of prevention and management of LSS in community settings.