Macro determinants of the banking sector results in the Czech Republic, Slovakia and Slovenia
Festić, Mejra
Exposure to macroeconomic risk factors across banks is a source of systemic risk that influences the banking sector results. Comparative analysis on macroenvironment influencing the NPL ratio ...performance has not been made yet for the New EU Member States. In this paper, we present some evidence on macroeconomic variables affecting the NPL ratio in the Czech Republic, Slovakia and Slovenia. The GDP growth might have improved borrowers' ability to serve their bank loans in Slovenia, meanwhile the accelerating non-performing loans ratio dynamics has failed to support the hypothesis that the GDP growth fosters an improvement in the non-performing loans ratio in the case of Slovakia. Meanwhile deceleration in the non-performing loans on net export impulses has supported a pro-cyclical theory in the Czech Republic, Slovakia and Slovenia. The response of non-performing loans on inflation supports the hypothesis about the lowering inflation that decelerates the non-performing loans ratio. Savings have accelerated the non-performing loans ratio in the case of Slovakia and Slovenia. The banking sector performance in terms of the non-performing loans ratio is possibly reflecting a favourable assessment of the economic growth and an increasing indebtedness of private sector could become causes of concern if the macroeconomic environment should develop less favourably.
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