The ecology of forest ecosystems depends on the composition of trees. Capturing fine-grained information on individual trees at broad scales provides a unique perspective on forest ecosystems, forest ...restoration, and responses to disturbance. Individual tree data at wide extents promises to increase the scale of forest analysis, biogeographic research, and ecosystem monitoring without losing details on individual species composition and abundance. Computer vision using deep neural networks can convert raw sensor data into predictions of individual canopy tree species through labeled data collected by field researchers. Using over 40,000 individual tree stems as training data, we create landscape-level species predictions for over 100 million individual trees across 24 sites in the National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON). Using hierarchical multi-temporal models fine-tuned for each geographic area, we produce open-source data available as 1 km 2 shapefiles with individual tree species prediction, as well as crown location, crown area, and height of 81 canopy tree species. Site-specific models had an average performance of 79% accuracy covering an average of 6 species per site, ranging from 3 to 15 species per site. All predictions are openly archived and have been uploaded to Google Earth Engine to benefit the ecology community and overlay with other remote sensing assets. We outline the potential utility and limitations of these data in ecology and computer vision research, as well as strategies for improving predictions using targeted data sampling.
In 2022, the European Chemicals Agency issued advice on the selection of high dose levels for developmental and reproductive toxicity (DART) studies indicating that the highest dose tested should aim ...to induce clear evidence of reproductive toxicity without excessive toxicity and severe suffering in parental animals. In addition, a recent publication advocated that a 10% decrease in body weight gain should be replaced with a 10% decrease in bodyweight as a criterion for dose adequacy. Experts from the European Centre for Ecotoxicology and Toxicology of Chemicals evaluated these recent developments and their potential impact on study outcomes and interpretation and identified that the advice was not aligned with OECD test guidelines or with humane endpoints guidance. Furthermore, data analysis from DART studies indicated that a 10% decrease in maternal body weight during gestation equates to a 25% decrease in body weight gain, which differs from the consensus of experts at a 2010 ILSI/HESI workshop. Dose selection should be based on a biological approach that considers a range of other factors. Excessive dose levels that cause frank toxicity and overwhelm homeostasis should be avoided as they can give rise to effects that are not relevant to human health assessments.
•ECHA's advice to increase dose levels in reproductive (DART) studies is evaluated.•Recommended high dose criteria contrary to OECD guidelines and DART experts' opinion.•Excessive dose levels may cause irrelevant secondary effects on reproduction.•Dose selection should consider the complexity of the maternal-placental-fetal model.
Understanding potential limitations to tree regeneration is essential as rates of tree mortality increase in response to direct (extreme drought) and indirect (bark beetle outbreaks, wildfire) ...effects of a warming climate. Seed availability is increasingly recognized as an important limitation for tree regeneration. High variability in seed cone production is a trait common among many northern temperate conifers, but few studies examine the determinants of individual tree cone production and how they vary with stand structure. In subalpine forests in the southern Rocky Mountains, USA, we monitored >1600 Picea engelmannii (Engelmann spruce) and Abies lasiocarpa (subalpine fir) trees for cone presence (an indicator of reproductive maturity) and a subset of those trees for cone abundance (an indicator of seed production) from 2016 to 2018. We constructed mixed models to test how individual tree cone presence and cone abundance were affected by tree size and age as well as forest attributes at the neighborhood‐ and stand‐scales. The probability of cone presence and cone abundance increased with tree size and age for A. lasiocarpa and P. engelmannii. The youngest ages of trees with cones present were more than 100 yr later for individuals in high basal area (BA) stands (>65 m2/ha) relative to low BA stands (<25 m2/ha). P. engelmannii produced many more cones than A. lasiocarpa at similar sizes, especially in young, low BA stands. Our findings reveal how differences in tree sizes and stand structures typically associated with time since last disturbance can affect seed production patterns for decades to well over a century. The consistent regional pattern of earlier and more abundant postfire establishment of P. engelmannnii vs. the delayed postfire establishment by A. lasiocarpa may be partially explained by species’ differences in cone abundance by stand structure. The increasing loss of large, dominant cone‐producing trees will significantly reduce seed production to support future tree regeneration and maintain forest cover. However, seed availability and resilience following disturbances may be less limiting than expected for species like P. engelmannii that have the capacity to produce more cones in open‐canopy forests, such as recently disturbed areas.
Biotic disturbances that overlap in space and time may result in important shifts in forest structure and composition, with potential effects on many ecosystem services. Starting in the late 1990s, ...outbreaks of multiple bark beetle species caused widespread mortality of three co‐occurring conifer species in the ca. 40,000‐km2 subalpine zone of the southern Rocky Mountains (SRM), USA. To better understand the implications of such outbreaks, our goal was to determine if overlapping outbreaks of multiple bark beetle species caused greater tree mortality than single‐species outbreaks in stands with multiple susceptible host tree species. We mapped stand susceptibility to outbreaks of spruce beetle (SB, Dendroctonus rufipennis), mountain pine beetle (MPB, Dendroctonus ponderosae), and western balsam bark beetle (WBBB, Dryocoetes confusus) by combining aerial survey data and forest composition variables in a random forest modeling framework. Then, we used existing maps of cumulative forest mortality from bark beetles to investigate the extent and severity of overlapping outbreaks from 1999 to 2019. We found that 46% of stands with two or more of the three studied hosts species—Engelmann spruce (Picea engelmannii), lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta var. latifolia), or subalpine fir (Abies lasiocarpa)—were susceptible to overlapping outbreaks (25% of all sampled stands). Of those stands, 31% experienced outbreaks of two or more beetle species. Stands affected by outbreaks of both MPB and SB had higher tree mortality than stands affected by one species alone, though stands susceptible to both MPB and SB were uncommon (<4% of all sampled stands). No other combinations of beetle outbreaks increased tree mortality above levels caused by single‐species outbreaks. Thus, contrary to expectations, overlapping outbreaks were rarely more severe than single‐species outbreaks in the SRM. This suggests that diverse forest communities may buffer against the most severe effects of bark beetle outbreaks, even during warm, dry conditions.
Changes in climate are altering disturbance regimes in forests of western North America, leading to increases in the potential for disturbance events to overlap in time and space. Though interactions ...between abiotic and biotic disturbance (e.g., the effect of bark beetle outbreak on subsequent wildfire) have been widely studied, interactions between multiple biotic disturbances are poorly understood. Defoliating insects, such as the western spruce budworm (WSB; Choristoneura freemanni), have been widely suggested to predispose trees to secondary colonization by bark beetles, such as the Douglas-fir beetle (DFB; Dendroctonus pseudotsugae). However, there is little quantitative research that supports this observation. Here, we asked: Does previous WSB damage increase the likelihood of subsequent DFB outbreak in Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii) forests of the Southern Rocky Mountains, USA? To quantify areas affected by WSB and then DFB, we analyzed Aerial Detection Survey data from 1999–2019. We found that a DFB presence followed WSB defoliation more often than expected under a null model (i.e., random distribution). With climate change expected to intensify some biotic disturbances, an understanding of the interactions between insect outbreaks is important for forest management planning, as well as for improving our understanding of forest change.
Background
In seed-obligate conifer forests of the western US, land managers need a better understanding of the spatiotemporal variability in post-fire recovery to develop adaptation strategies. ...Successful establishment of post-fire seedlings requires the arrival of seeds and favorable environmental conditions for germination, survival, and growth. We investigated the spatiotemporal limitations to post-fire seedling establishment and height growth in dry to moist mixed conifer forests with and without post-fire forest management treatments (salvage logging, grass seeding) in areas burned from low to high severity. In 2011, we measured post-fire seedling establishment year, juvenile density (seedlings and saplings), and height growth (annual and total) in 50 plots with six conifer species in the School Fire (2005), Blue Mountains, WA, USA. In 2021, we remeasured the plots for post-fire juvenile density and height growth.
Results
Post-fire juvenile tree densities appeared sufficient for self-replacement of forest (> 60 stems ha
−1
) in 96% of plots in 2021 (median 3130 stems ha
−1
), but densities were highly variable (range 33–100,501 stems ha
−1
). Annual seedling establishment was positively correlated with cooler, wetter climate conditions during the summer of germination (July–September) and the growing season of the subsequent year (April–September) for multiple tree species. We found lower juvenile densities at greater distances to seed sources and with higher grass cover, while salvage logging had no effect. Annual height growth was shorter on warmer, drier topographic positions for three species, whereas annual height growth was associated with climate variability for one species. Shifts in height class structure from 2011 to 2021 were, in part, explained by differences among species in annual height growth.
Conclusions
Abundant and widespread tree seedling establishment for multiple conifer species after fire was strong evidence that most burned sites in the present study are currently on a trajectory to return to forest. However, post-fire establishment may be constrained to brief periods of cooler, wetter climate conditions following future fires. Long-term monitoring of post-fire recovery dynamics is needed to inform management activities designed to adapt forests to climate change and future disturbances, which will collectively shape future forest structure and composition.
Landsat time series (LTS) and associated change detection algorithms are useful for monitoring the effects of global change on Earth's ecosystems. Because LTS algorithms can be easily applied across ...broad areas, they are commonly used to map changes in forest structure due to wildfire, insect attack, and other important drivers of tree mortality. But factors such as initial forest density, tree mortality agent, and disturbance severity (i.e., percent tree mortality) influence patterns of surface reflectance and may influence the accuracy of LTS algorithms. And while LTS algorithms are widely used in areas with a history of multiple disturbance events during the Landsat record, the effectiveness of LTS algorithms in these conditions is not well understood. We compared products from the LTS algorithm LandTrendr (Landsat-based Detection of Trends in Disturbance and Recovery) with a unique field dataset from a landscape heavily influenced by both wildfire and spruce beetles (Dendroctonus rufipennis) since c. 2000. We also compared LandTrendr to other common methods of mapping fire- and spruce beetle-affected areas. We found that LandTrendr more accurately detected wildfire than spruce beetle-induced tree mortality, and both mortality agents were more easily detected when they occurred at high severity. Surprisingly, prior spruce beetle outbreaks did not influence the detectability of subsequent wildfire. Compared to alternative disturbance mapping approaches, LandTrendr predicted a c. 40% lower area affected by wildfire or spruce beetle outbreaks. Our findings indicate that disturbance type- and severity-specific differences in omission error may have broad implications for disturbance mapping efforts that utilize Landsat data. Gradual, low-severity disturbances (e.g., background tree mortality and non-stand replacing disturbance) are pervasive in forest ecosystems, yet they can be difficult to detect using automated LTS algorithms. Whenever possible, methods to account for these biases should be incorporated in LTS-based mapping efforts, including the use of multispectral ensembles and ancillary spatial data to refine predictions. However, our findings also indicate that LTS algorithms appear to be robust in areas with multiple disturbance events, which is important because these areas will increase as new acquisitions extend the length of the Landsat record.
•Wildfire was easier to detect than spruce beetle outbreak using LTS.•Omission error decreased with greater tree mortality for each disturbance type.•Prior spruce beetle disturbance did not affect the detection of wildfire events.•LTS algorithms detected a c. 40% lower disturbance-affected area than other methods.
In the absence of broad-scale disturbance, many temperate coniferous forests experience successful seedling establishment only when abundant seed production coincides with favorable climate. ...Identifying the frequency of past establishment events and the climate conditions favorable for seedling establishment is essential to understanding how climate warming could affect the frequency of future tree establishment events and therefore future forest composition or even persistence of a forest cover. In the southern Rocky Mountains, USA, research on the sensitivity of establishment of Engelmann spruce (Picea engelmannii) and subalpine fir (Abies lasiocarpa)—two widely distributed, co-occurring conifers in North America—to climate variability has focused on the alpine treeline ecotone, leaving uncertainty about the sensitivity of these species across much of their elevation distribution. We compared annual germination dates for >450 Engelmann spruce and >500 subalpine fir seedlings collected across a complex topographic-moisture gradient to climate variability in the Colorado Front Range. We found that Engelmann spruce and subalpine fir established episodically with strong synchrony in establishment events across the study area. Broad-scale establishment events occurred in years of high soil moisture availability, which were characterized by above-average snowpack and/or cool and wet summer climatic conditions. In the recent half of the study period (1975–2010), a decrease in the number of fir and spruce establishment events across their distribution coincided with declining snowpack and a multi-decadal trend of rising summer temperature and increasing moisture deficits. Counter to expected and observed increases in tree establishment with climate warming in maritime subalpine forests, our results show that recruitment declines will likely occur across the core of moisture-limited subalpine tree ranges as warming drives increased moisture deficits.
Since the late 1990s, extensive outbreaks of native bark beetles (Curculionidae: Scolytinae) have affected coniferous forests throughout Europe and North America, driving changes in carbon storage, ...wildlife habitat, nutrient cycling, and water resource provisioning. Remote sensing is a crucial tool for quantifying the effects of these disturbances across broad landscapes. In particular, Landsat time series (LTS) are increasingly used to characterize outbreak dynamics, including the presence and severity of bark beetle-caused tree mortality, though broad-scale LTS-based maps are rarely informed by detailed field validation. Here we used spatial and temporal information from LTS products, in combination with extensive field data and Random Forest (RF) models, to develop 30-m maps of the presence (i.e., any occurrence) and severity (i.e., cumulative percent basal area mortality) of beetle-caused tree mortality 1997–2019 in subalpine forests throughout the Southern Rocky Mountains, USA. Using resultant maps, we also quantified spatial patterns of cumulative tree mortality throughout the region, an important yet poorly understood concept in beetle-affected forests. RF models using LTS products to predict presence and severity performed well, with 80.3% correctly classified (Kappa = 0.61) and R2 = 0.68 (RMSE = 17.3), respectively. We found that ≥10,256 km2 of subalpine forest area (39.5% of the study area) was affected by bark beetles and 19.3% of the study area experienced ≥70% tree mortality over the twenty-three year period. Variograms indicated that severity was autocorrelated at scales < 250 km. Interestingly, cumulative patch-size distributions showed that areas with a near-total loss of the overstory canopy (i.e., ≥90% mortality) were relatively small (<0.24 km2) and isolated throughout the study area. Our findings help to inform an understanding of the variable effects of bark beetle outbreaks across complex forested regions and provide insight into patterns of disturbance legacies, landscape connectivity, and susceptibility to future disturbance.
Understanding how severe disturbances and their interactions affect forests is key to projecting ecological change under a warming climate. Substantial increases in some biotic disturbances, such as ...bark beetle outbreaks, in temperate forest ecosystemsmay compromise recovery to a forest vegetation type (i.e., physiognomic recovery or resilience), especially if subsequent biotic disturbances (e.g., herbivory) alter recovery mechanisms. From 2005 to 2017, severe outbreaks (>90% mortality) of spruce bark beetles (SB, Dendroctonus rufipennis) affected Engelmann spruce (Picea engelmannii) across 325,000 ha of spruce and subalpine fir (Abies lasiocarpa) forest in the southern Rocky Mountains, USA. Concurrently, an outbreak of western balsam bark beetle (WBBB, Dryocoetes confuses) infested subalpine fir across at least 47,000 of these hectares. We explored the capacity of 105 stands affected by one or two bark beetle outbreaks and browsing of juvenile trees by ungulates to return to a forest vegetation type in the context of pre-outbreak forest conditions and topography. Nine initial forest trajectories (i.e., at least several decades) were identified from four pre-outbreak forest types affected by three biotic disturbances that occurred at different spatial scales and severities. Most stands (86%) contained surviving nonhost adult trees in the main canopy (fir and aspen Populus tremuloides) and many surviving juveniles of all species, implying that they are currently on a trajectory for physiognomic recovery. Stands composed exclusively of large-diameter spruce were affected by a severe SB outbreak and were most vulnerable to a transition to a low-density forest, below regional stocking levels (<370 trees/ha). Greater pre-outbreak stand structural complexity and species diversity were key traits of stands with a higher potential for physiognomic recovery. However, all multispecies stands shifted in relative composition of the main canopy to nonhost species, suggesting low potential for compositional recovery over the next several decades. Most post-outbreak stands (86%) exceeded regional stocking levels with trees taller than the browse zone (<2 m). As such, ungulate browsing on over half of all juveniles will primarily affect the rate of infilling of the forest canopy and preferential browsing of more palatable species will influence the composition of the future forest canopy.
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