One of the very common in situ signatures of interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs), as well as other interplanetary transients, are Forbush decreases (FDs), i.e. short-term reductions in the ...galactic cosmic ray (GCR) flux. A two-step FD is often regarded as a textbook example, which presumably owes its specific morphology to the fact that the measuring instrument passed through the ICME head on, encountering first the shock front (if developed), then the sheath, and finally the CME magnetic structure. The interaction of GCRs and the shock/sheath region, as well as the CME magnetic structure, occurs all the way from Sun to Earth, therefore, FDs are expected to reflect the evolutionary properties of CMEs and their sheaths. We apply modeling to different ICME regions in order to obtain a generic two-step FD profile, which qualitatively agrees with our current observation-based understanding of FDs. We next adapt the models for energy dependence to enable comparison with different GCR measurement instruments (as they measure in different particle energy ranges). We test these modeling efforts against a set of multi-spacecraft observations of the same event, using the Forbush decrease model for the expanding flux rope (
ForbMod
). We find a reasonable agreement of the
ForbMod
model for the GCR depression in the CME magnetic structure with multi-spacecraft measurements, indicating that modeled FDs reflect well the CME evolution.
Accurate forecasting of the properties of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) as they approach Earth is now recognized as an important strategic objective for both NOAA and NASA. The time of arrival of ...such events is a key parameter, one that had been anticipated to be relatively straightforward to constrain. In this study, we analyze forecasts submitted to the Community Coordinated Modeling Center at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center over the last 6 years to answer the following questions: (1) How well do these models forecast the arrival time of CME-driven shocks? (2) What are the uncertainties associated with these forecasts? (3) Which model(s) perform best? (4) Have the models become more accurate during the past 6 years? We analyze all forecasts made by 32 models from 2013 through mid-2018, and additionally focus on 28 events, all of which were forecasted by six models. We find that the models are generally able to predict CME-shock arrival times, in an average sense, to within ±10 hr, but with standard deviations often exceeding 20 hr. The best performers, on the other hand, maintained a mean error (bias) of 1 hr, a mean absolute error of 13 hr, and a precision (standard deviation) of 15 hr. Finally, there is no evidence that the forecasts have become more accurate during this interval. We discuss the intrinsic simplifications of thevarious models analyzed, the limitations of this investigation, and suggest possible paths to improve these forecasts in the future.
We present a major update to the 3D coronal rope ejection (3DCORE) technique for modeling coronal mass ejection flux ropes in conjunction with an approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) algorithm that ...is used for fitting the model to in situ magnetic field measurements. The model assumes an empirically motivated torus-like flux rope structure that expands self-similarly within the heliosphere, is influenced by a simplified interaction with the solar wind environment, and carries along an embedded analytical magnetic field. The improved 3DCORE implementation allows us to generate extremely large ensemble simulations that we then use to find global best-fit model parameters using an ABC sequential Monte Carlo algorithm. The usage of this algorithm, under some basic assumptions on the uncertainty of the magnetic field measurements, allows us to furthermore generate estimates on the uncertainty of model parameters using only a single in situ observation. We apply our model to synthetically generated measurements to prove the validity of our implementation for the fitting procedure. We also present a brief analysis, within the scope of our model, of an event captured by the Parker Solar Probe shortly after its first flyby of the Sun on 2018 November 12 at 0.25 au. The presented toolset is also easily extendable to the analysis of events captured by multiple spacecraft and will therefore facilitate future multipoint studies.
We study interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) measured by probes at different heliocentric distances (0.3–1 AU) to investigate the propagation of ICMEs in the inner heliosphere and determine ...how the generic features of ICMEs change with heliospheric distance. Using data from the MErcury Surface, Space ENvironment, GEochemistry, and Ranging (MESSENGER), Venus Express and ACE spacecraft, we analyze with the superposed epoch technique the profiles of ICME substructures, namely, the sheath and the magnetic ejecta. We determine that the median magnetic field magnitude in the sheath correlates well with ICME speeds at 1 AU, and we use this proxy to order the ICMEs at all spacecraft. We then investigate the typical ICME profiles for three categories equivalent to slow, intermediate, and fast ICMEs. Contrary to fast ICMEs, slow ICMEs have a weaker solar wind field at the front and a more symmetric magnetic field profile. We find the asymmetry to be less pronounced at Earth than at Mercury, indicating a relaxation taking place as ICMEs propagate. We also find that the magnetic field intensities in the wake region of the ICMEs do not go back to the pre‐ICME solar wind intensities, suggesting that the effects of ICMEs on the ambient solar wind last longer than the duration of the transient event. Such results provide an indication of physical processes that need to be reproduced by numerical simulations of ICME propagation. The samples studied here will be greatly improved by future missions dedicated to the exploration of the inner heliosphere, such as Parker Solar Probe and Solar Orbiter.
Key Points
Slow ICMEs have a more symmetric profile compared with fast ICMEs; this trend is maintained at different heliospheric distances
ICMEs sampled at Mercury have smaller sheaths and magnetic ejecta than further away
At all three planets, the post‐ICME solar wind does not fully recover its original properties, indicating a long recovery period
The ambient solar wind conditions in interplanetary space and in the near-Earth environment are determined by activity on the Sun. Steady solar wind streams modulate the propagation behavior of ...interplanetary coronal mass ejections and are themselves an important driver of recurrent geomagnetic storm activity. The knowledge of the ambient solar wind flows and fields is thus an essential component of successful space weather forecasting. Here, we present an implementation of an operational framework for operating, validating, and optimizing models of the ambient solar wind flow on the example of Carrington Rotation 2077. We reconstruct the global topology of the coronal magnetic field using the potential field source surface model (PFSS) and the Schatten current sheet model (SCS) and discuss three empirical relationships for specifying the solar wind conditions near the Sun, namely the Wang-Sheeley (WS) model, the distance from the coronal hole boundary model (DCHB), and the Wang-Sheeley-Arge (WSA) model. By adding uncertainty in the latitude about the sub-Earth point, we select an ensemble of initial conditions and map the solutions to Earth by the Heliospheric Upwind eXtrapolation (HUX) model. We assess the forecasting performance from a continuous variable validation and find that the WSA model most accurately predicts the solar wind speed time series (RMSE 83 km s−1). We note that the process of ensemble forecasting slightly improves the forecasting performance of all solar wind models investigated. We conclude that the implemented framework is well suited for studying the relationship between coronal magnetic fields and the properties of the ambient solar wind flow in the near-Earth environment.
The ambient solar wind flows and fields influence the complex propagation dynamics of coronal mass ejections in the interplanetary medium and play an essential role in shaping Earth's space weather ...environment. A critical scientific goal in the space weather research and prediction community is to develop, implement, and optimize numerical models for specifying the large-scale properties of solar wind conditions at the inner boundary of the heliospheric model domain. Here we present an adaptive prediction system that fuses information from in situ measurements of the solar wind into numerical models to better match the global solar wind model solutions near the Sun with prevailing physical conditions in the vicinity of Earth. In this way, we attempt to advance the predictive capabilities of well-established solar wind models for specifying solar wind speed, including the Wang-Sheeley-Arge model. In particular, we use the Heliospheric Upwind eXtrapolation (HUX) model for mapping the solar wind solutions from the near-Sun environment to the vicinity of Earth. In addition, we present the newly developed Tunable HUX (THUX) model, which solves the viscous form of the underlying Burgers equation. We perform a statistical analysis of the resulting solar wind predictions for the period 2006-2015. The proposed prediction scheme improves all the investigated coronal/heliospheric model combinations and produces better estimates of the solar wind state at Earth than our reference baseline model. We discuss why this is the case and conclude that our findings have important implications for future practice in applied space weather research and prediction.
The Parker Solar Probe (PSP) and Solar Orbiter missions are designed to make groundbreaking observations of the Sun and interplanetary space within this decade. We show that a particularly ...interesting in situ observation of an interplanetary coronal mass ejection (ICME) by PSP may arise during close solar flybys (<0.1 au). During these times, the same magnetic flux rope inside an ICME could be observed in situ by PSP twice, by impacting its frontal part as well as its leg. Investigating the odds of this situation, we forecast the ICME rate in solar cycle 25 based on two models for the sunspot number (SSN): (1) the forecast of an expert panel in 2019 (maximum SSN = 115), and (2) a prediction by McIntosh et al. (2020, maximum SSN = 232). We link the SSN to the observed ICME rates in solar cycles 23 and 24 with the Richardson and Cane list and our own ICME catalog, and calculate that between one and seven ICMEs will be observed by PSP at heliocentric distances <0.1 au until 2025, including 1 uncertainties. We then model the potential flux rope signatures of such a double-crossing event with the semiempirical 3DCORE flux rope model, showing a telltale elevation of the radial magnetic field component BR, and a sign reversal in the component BN normal to the solar equator compared to field rotation in the first encounter. This holds considerable promise to determine the structure of CMEs close to their origin in the solar corona.
The evolution and propagation of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) in interplanetary space is still not well understood. As a consequence, accurate arrival time and arrival speed forecasts are an ...unsolved problem in space weather research. In this study, we present the ELlipse Evolution model based on HI observations (ELEvoHI) and introduce a deformable front to this model. ELEvoHI relies on heliospheric imagers (HI) observations to obtain the kinematics of a CME. With the newly developed deformable front, the model is able to react to the ambient solar wind conditions during the entire propagation and along the whole front of the CME. To get an estimate of the ambient solar wind conditions, we make use of three different models: Heliospheric Upwind eXtrapolation model (HUX), Heliospheric Upwind eXtrapolation with time dependence model (HUXt), and EUropean Heliospheric FORecasting Information Asset (EUHFORIA). We test the deformable front on a CME first observed in STEREO‐A/HI on February 3, 2010 14:49 UT. For this case study, the deformable front provides better estimates of the arrival time and arrival speed than the original version of ELEvoHI using an elliptical front. The new implementation enables us to study the parameters influencing the propagation of the CME not only for the apex, but for the entire front. The evolution of the CME front, especially at the flanks, is highly dependent on the ambient solar wind model used. An additional advantage of the new implementation is given by the possibility to provide estimates of the CME mass.
Plain Language Summary
Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are large explosions of plasma and magnetic field erupting from the solar surface. When directed toward Earth, they cause negative effects in near Earth environment and damage human technology so it is important to forecast the arrival time and arrival speed of CMEs. We present an updated version of an already existing CME arrival model that integrates the drag force between a CME and the ambient solar wind and assumes an elliptical shape of the CME front. The newly developed CME arrival prediction model is able to adjust its front to the conditions in the ambient solar wind. We test this approach using different ambient solar wind models for a single CME, and find that the estimated arrival times and arrival speeds are closer to the actual arrivals at Earth using a deformable front. We also see that a more structured ambient solar wind leads to more deformation of the CME front.
Key Points
The implementation of a deformable front based on ELlipse Evolution model based on heliospheric imagers for three different ambient solar winds models is presented
The parameters influencing the propagation of the coronal mass ejection are studied in detail
For all the three ambient solar wind models the deformable front provides better model results than the elliptical front
In this study, we evaluate a coronal mass ejection (CME) arrival prediction tool that utilizes the wide‐angle observations made by STEREO's heliospheric imagers (HI). The unsurpassable advantage of ...these imagers is the possibility to observe the evolution and propagation of a CME from close to the Sun out to 1 AU and beyond. We believe that by exploiting this capability, instead of relying on coronagraph observations only, it is possible to improve today's CME arrival time predictions. The ELlipse Evolution model based on HI observations (ELEvoHI) assumes that the CME frontal shape within the ecliptic plane is an ellipse and allows the CME to adjust to the ambient solar wind speed; that is, it is drag based. ELEvoHI is used to perform ensemble simulations by varying the CME frontal shape within given boundary conditions that are consistent with the observations made by HI. In this work, we evaluate different setups of the model by performing hindcasts for 15 well‐defined isolated CMEs that occurred when STEREO was near L4/5, between the end of 2008 and the beginning of 2011. In this way, we find a mean absolute error of between 6.2 ± 7.9 and 9.9 ± 13 hr depending on the model setup used. ELEvoHI is specified for using data from future space weather missions carrying HIs located at L5 or L1. It can also be used with near‐real‐time STEREO‐A HI beacon data to provide CME arrival predictions during the next ∼7 years when STEREO‐A is observing the Sun‐Earth space.
Key Points
CME prediction tool ELEvoHI is ready to be used in real time, based on STEREO‐A/HI beacon data
Different model setups and inputs lead to large differences of the prediction accuracies
Accurate modeling of the ambient solar wind is of particular importance to improve CME predictions
Abstract
We report the result of the first search for multipoint in situ and imaging observations of interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) starting with the first Solar Orbiter (SolO) data in ...2020 April–2021 April. A data exploration analysis is performed including visualizations of the magnetic-field and plasma observations made by the five spacecraft SolO, BepiColombo, Parker Solar Probe (PSP), Wind, and STEREO-A, in connection with coronagraph and heliospheric imaging observations from STEREO-A/SECCHI and SOHO/LASCO. We identify ICME events that could be unambiguously followed with the STEREO-A heliospheric imagers during their interplanetary propagation to their impact at the aforementioned spacecraft and look for events where the same ICME is seen in situ by widely separated spacecraft. We highlight two events: (1) a small streamer blowout CME on 2020 June 23 observed with a triple lineup by PSP, BepiColombo and Wind, guided by imaging with STEREO-A, and (2) the first fast CME of solar cycle 25 (≈1600 km s
−1
) on 2020 November 29 observed in situ by PSP and STEREO-A. These results are useful for modeling the magnetic structure of ICMEs and the interplanetary evolution and global shape of their flux ropes and shocks, and for studying the propagation of solar energetic particles. The combined data from these missions are already turning out to be a treasure trove for space-weather research and are expected to become even more valuable with an increasing number of ICME events expected during the rise and maximum of solar cycle 25.
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