► Runoff was projected from 15 GCMs and three warming levels over south-western Australia. ► All GCMs project a drier and hotter future in south-western Australia by 2030. ► An ensemble of ...rainfall-runoff models projects a median decline in runoff of 25%. ► 90th percentile projected runoff declines 53% in the north and 40% in the south of the project area. ► Rainfall-runoff elasticity increases under projected climate scenarios.
This paper presents the results of computer simulations of runoff from 13 major fresh and brackish river basins in south-western Australia (SWA) under climate projections obtained from 15 GCMs with three future global warming scenarios equivalent to global temperature rises of 0.7°C, 1.0°C and 1.3°C by 2030. The objective was to apply an efficient methodology, consistent across a large region, to examine the implications of the best available projections in climate trends for future surface water resources. An ensemble of rainfall-runoff models was calibrated on stream flow data from 1975 to 2007 from 106 gauged catchments distributed throughout the basins of the study area. The sensitivity of runoff to projected changes in mean annual rainfall is examined using the climate ‘elasticity’ concept. Averaged across the study area, all 15 GCMs project declines in rainfall under all global warming scenarios with a median decline of 8% resulting in a median decline in runoff of 25%. Such uniformity in projections from GCMs is unusual. Over SWA the average annual runoff under the 5th wettest and 5th driest of the 45 projections of the 2030 climate declines by 10 and 42%, respectively. Under the 5th driest projection the runoff decline ranges from 53% in the northern region to 40% in the southern region. Strong regional variations in climate sensitivity are found with the proportional decline in runoff greatest in the northern region and the greatest volumetric declines in the wetter basins in the south. Since the mid 1970s stream flows into the major water supply reservoirs in SWA have declined by more than 50% following a 16% rainfall reduction. This has already had major implications for water resources planning and for the preservation of aquatic and riparian ecosystems in the region. Our results indicate that this reduction in runoff is likely to continue if future climate projections eventuate.
Climate change adaptation, greenhouse gas mitigation and economic profitability of conservation agriculture： Some examples from cereal systems of Indo-Gangetic Plains Tek B Sapkota, M L Jat, Jeetendra P Aryal, R K Jat, Arun Khatri-Chhetri (1Department of Plant Breeding Genetics, University College of Agriculture, University of Sargodha, Sargodha 40100, Pakistan 2National Agricultural University La Molina (UNALM), Lima 12, Peru 3USDA ARS Corn Host Plant Resistance Research Unit, P.O. Box 9555, Mississippi State, MS 39762, USA 4Crop Research Institute, Anhui Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Hefei 230031, P.R.China 5Department of Crop Science, College of Agricultural and Marine Sciences, Sultan Qaboos University, P.O. Box 34, AlKhoud 123,Oman 6Department of Botany, Warsaw University of Life Sciences-SSGW, Warsaw 02-766, Poland 7Social Sciences Research Institute, National Agriculture Research Council, Islamabad 44000, Pakistan)
Journal of Integrative Agriculture,
08/2015, Letnik:
14, Številka:
8
Journal Article
Recenzirano
Odprti dostop
Achieving sustainability of the cereal system in the Indo-Gangetic Plains（IGP）of India under progressive climate change and variability necessitates adoption of practices and technologies that ...increase food production,adaptation and mitigation in a sustainable way.This paper examines conservation agriculture（CA）from the perspective of：（i）increased yield and farm income,（ii）adaptation to heat and water stresses,and（iii）reduction in greenhouse gas（GHGs）emissions.The analyses and conclusions are based on the literature and evidences from a large number of on-station as well as farmers’field trials on CA in the cereal systems of IGP.Our analyses show that CA-based system substantially reduces the production cost（up to 23%）but produces equal or even higher than conventional system;thereby increasing economic profitability of production system.CA-based production systems also moderated the effect of high temperature（reduced canopy temperature by 1–4°C）and increased irrigation water productivity by 66–100%compared to traditional production systems thus well adapting to water and heat stress situations of IGP.Our continuous monitoring of soil flux of CO2,N2O and CH4 revealed that CA-based rice-wheat systems emit 10–15%less GHGs than conventional systems.This is the first time that CA and its components are synthesized and analyzed from food security-climate change nexus.From this holistic analysis,we suggest that wide-scale promotion of suitable CA practices by integrating into national agriculture development strategy is a way forward to address food security,climate change adaptation and mitigation challenges faced by present agriculture.
Light scattering by size-resolved aerosols in near-surface air at Tudor Hill, Bermuda, was measured between January and June 2009. Vertical distributions of aerosol backscattering and column-averaged ...aerosol optical properties were characterized in parallel with a micro-pulse lidar (MPL) and an automated sun–sky radiometer. Comparisons were made between extensive aerosol parameters in the column, such as the lidar-retrieved extinction at 400 m and the aerosol optical depth (AOD), and scattering was measured with a surface nephelometer. Comparisons were also made for intensive parameters such as the Ångström exponent and calculations using AERONET(Aerosol Robotic Network)-derived aerosol physical parameters (size distribution, index of refraction) and Mie theory, and the ratio of submicron scattering to total scattering for size-segregated nephelometer measurements. In these comparisons the r2 was generally around 0.50. Data were also evaluated based on back trajectories. The correlation between surface scattering and lidar extinction was highest for flows when the surface scattering was dominated by smaller particles and the flow had a longer footprint over land then over the ocean. The correlation of AOD with surface scatter was similar for all flow regimes. There was also no clear dependence of the atmospheric lapse rate, as determined from a nearby radiosonde station, on flow regime. The Ångström exponent for most flow regimes was 0.9–1.0, but for the case of air originating from North America, but with significant time over the ocean, the Ångström exponent was 0.57 ± 0.18. The submicron fraction of aerosol near the surface (Rsub-surf) was significantly greater for the flows from land (0.66 ± 0.11) than for the flows which spent more time over the ocean (0.40 ± 0.05). When comparing Rsub-surf and the column-integrated submicron scattering fraction, Rsub-col, the correlation was similar, r2 = 0.50, but Rsub-surf was generally less than Rsub-col, indicating more large particles contributing to light scattering at the surface, contrary to conditions over continents and for polluted continental transport over the ocean. In general, though, the marginal correlations indicate that the column optical properties are weakly correlated with the surface optical measurements. Thus, if it is desired to associate aerosol chemical/physical properties with their optical properties, it is best to use optical and chemical/physical measurements with both collected at the surface or both collected in the column.
Tigers are a globally endangered species that encounter conflict with humans throughout their distribution range. The government of Nepal recently announced in a survey report that the tiger ...population has increased by 63% (from 121 in 2009 to 198), and aims by 2022 to reach a population size of 250 tigers. Here we analyse the requirement for prey and the size of protected area needed to sustain the projected increased tiger population. The results suggest that the prey biomass and size of current protected areas are insufficient to maintain 250 tigers within the current protected area systems. Therefore, further programmes should be implemented to increase prey populations and increase the area of protected tiger habitat. As Nepal is a pioneer in community-based participatory conservation practices in Asia, a strong, integrated monitoring system in protected parks, a buffer zone and a national forest should be established. Otherwise, an increasing tiger population will frequently range beyond the protected areas, resulting in intensified human–tiger conflict.
Community-based strategies for delivering effective newborn interventions are an essential step to avert newborn death, in settings where the health facilities are unable to effectively deliver the ...interventions and reach their population. Effective implementation of community-based interventions as a large scale program and within the existing health system depends on the appropriate design and planning, monitoring and support systems. This article provides an overview of implementation design of Community-Based Newborn Care Package (CB-NCP) program, its setup within the health system, and early results of the implementation from one of the pilot districts. The evaluation of CB-NCP in one of the pilot districts shows significant improvement in antenatal, intrapartum and post natal care. The implementation design of the CB-NCP has six different health system management functions: i) district planning and orientation, ii) training/human resource development, iii) monitoring and evaluation, iv) logistics and supply chain management, v) communication strategy, and vi) pay for performance. The CB-NCP program embraced the existing system of monitoring with some additional components for the pilot phase to test implementation feasibility, and aligns with existing safe motherhood and child health programs. Though CB-NCP interventions are proven independently in different local and global contexts, they are piloted in 10 districts as a "package" within the national health system settings of Nepal.
Introduction: Solar ultraviolet (UV) radiation has a great impact on human life. The sun has always played an important role in Asian culture, so much so, that it is often prayed to as a God. ...Prolonged sun exposure can cause extensive and chronic harmful effects. Healthcare personnel is supposed to have good knowledge regarding sun protection as they play a key role in society disseminating knowledge to the general public. There are limited data regarding the knowledge of sun protection and sunscreen practice among health care workers.
Methods: This descriptive cross-sectional study was carried out from June to October 2020 on healthcare workers (medical staff) in Kathmandu Medical College Teaching Hospital. A questionnaire was distributed to the target study population without disturbing or hampering the healthcare worker’s duty.
Results: Out of a total of 264 participants in the study, 84 (31.8%) were male and 180 (68.2%) were female. The knowledge of proper terminology for SPF (Sun Protection Factor) was noted in 196 (74.2%) and 57 (21.6%) agreed that the value of SPF was related to age. No significant difference was noted regarding knowledge about the time of sun exposure for Vitamin D synthesis. No significant differences were found in practices of sunscreen use for purposes of fairness, or prevention of tanning, wrinkle, mole, and skin cancer.
Conclusion: A higher level of education was associated with better knowledge and proper abiding practices regarding sunscreen use. As healthcare workers play a key role in distributing information in society, they should be targeted in education campaigns regarding sun exposure and sun protection measures; with these efforts focused more on nurses and medical officers.
Abstract
The aim of this study was to compare costs and socio-economic impact of tuberculosis (TB) for patients diagnosed through active (ACF) and passive case finding (PCF) in Nepal. A longitudinal ...costing survey was conducted in four districts of Nepal from April 2018 to October 2019. Costs were collected using the WHO TB Patient Costs Survey at three time points: intensive phase of treatment, continuation phase of treatment and at treatment completion. Direct and indirect costs and socio-economic impact (poverty headcount, employment status and coping strategies) were evaluated throughout the treatment. Prevalence of catastrophic costs was estimated using the WHO threshold. Logistic regression and generalized estimating equation were used to evaluate risk of incurring high costs, catastrophic costs and socio-economic impact of TB over time. A total of 111 ACF and 110 PCF patients were included. ACF patients were more likely to have no education (75% vs 57%, P = 0.006) and informal employment (42% vs 24%, P = 0.005) Compared with the PCF group, ACF patients incurred lower costs during the pretreatment period (mean total cost: US$55 vs US$87, P < 0.001) and during the pretreatment plus treatment periods (mean total direct costs: US$72 vs US$101, P < 0.001). Socio-economic impact was severe for both groups throughout the whole treatment, with 32% of households incurring catastrophic costs. Catastrophic costs were associated with ‘no education’ status odds ratio = 2.53(95% confidence interval = 1.16–5.50). There is a severe and sustained socio-economic impact of TB on affected households in Nepal. The community-based ACF approach mitigated costs and reached the most vulnerable patients. Alongside ACF, social protection policies must be extended to achieve the zero catastrophic costs milestone of the End TB strategy.
ObjectivePsychosocial and economic (socioeconomic) barriers, including poverty, stigma and catastrophic costs, impede access to tuberculosis (TB) services in low-income countries. We aimed to ...characterise the socioeconomic barriers and facilitators of accessing TB services in Nepal to inform the design of a locally appropriate socioeconomic support intervention for TB-affected households.DesignFrom August 2018 to July 2019, we conducted an exploratory qualitative study consisting of semistructured focus group discussions (FGDs) with purposively selected multisectoral stakeholders. The data were managed in NVivo V.12, coded by consensus and analysed thematically.SettingThe study was conducted in four districts, Makwanpur, Chitwan, Dhanusha and Mahottari, which have a high prevalence of poverty and TB.ParticipantsSeven FGDs were conducted with 54 in-country stakeholders, grouped by stakeholders, including people with TB (n=21), community stakeholders (n=13) and multidisciplinary TB healthcare professionals (n=20) from the National TB Programme.ResultsThe perceived socioeconomic barriers to accessing TB services were: inadequate TB knowledge and advocacy; high food and transportation costs; income loss and stigma. The perceived facilitators to accessing TB care and services were: enhanced championing and awareness-raising about TB and TB services; social protection including health insurance; cash, vouchers and/or nutritional allowance to cover food and travel costs; and psychosocial support and counselling integrated with existing adherence counselling from the National TB Programme.ConclusionThese results suggest that support interventions that integrate TB education, psychosocial counselling and expand on existing cash transfer schemes would be locally appropriate and could address the socioeconomic barriers to accessing and engaging with TB services faced by TB-affected households in Nepal. The findings have been used to inform the design of a socioeconomic support intervention for TB-affected households. The acceptability, feasibility and impact of this intervention on TB-related costs, stigma and TB treatment outcomes, is now being evaluated in a pilot implementation study in Nepal.
Loss of T-synthase (uridine diphosphate galactose:N-acetylgalactosaminyl-α1-Ser/Thr β3galactosyltransferase), a key enzyme required for the formation of mucin-type core 1 O-glycans, is observed in ...several human diseases, including cancer, Tn syndrome and IgA nephropathy, but current methods to assay the enzyme use radioactive substrates and complicated isolation of the product. Here we report the development of a novel fluorescent assay to measure its activity in a variety of tumor cell lines. Deficiencies in T-synthase activity correlate with mutations in the gene encoding the molecular chaperone Cosmc that is required for folding the T-synthase. This new high-throughput assay allows for facile screening of tumor specimens and other biological material for T-synthase activity and could be used diagnostically.
Abstract
Introduction
Obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) and herpes zoster (HZ) represent treatable and preventable conditions respectively. Nightmares are strongly associated with OSA and may represent ...troubled sleep. All of these conditions are of growing concern in the Veterans Administration. Inadequate sleep may result in a weakened immune system, which is a potential factor in the reactivation of Varicella-Zoster virus.
Methods
We looked at the relationship between OSA, nightmare disorder (NMD), and incident HZ among veterans visiting the James A. Haley Veteran’s Hospital. Twenty-two thousand veterans were drawn by a randomly selected date from each quarter year from 2007–2011 from CPRS/VISTA. In order to increase numbers of rarer exposures, the cohort was supplemented by all patients with a nightmare disorder between 2007–2011. After removing duplicates, the total sample size was 22,891. All outpatient diagnoses and procedures between 2006–2015 were then drawn for this cohort. Patients without HZ were frequency matched as closely as possible to patients with HZ by selecting proximate visits. HZ was considered incident if it first occurred at least 30 days after the exposure diagnoses. Patients whose OSA or NMD did not occur at least 30 days before HZ diagnosis date or matched date for controls were excluded from that analysis. Logistic regression was used to calculate odds ratios (OR).
Results
Of 3536 patients with OSA, 238 (6.73%) developed HZ; out of the 17037 patients without OSA, 611 (3.59%) developed HZ (OR =1.94, 95%CI =1.66, 2.26). The association remained significant (OR= 1.64, 95%CI =1.37,1.98) after adjusting for age, sex, BMI, Charlson comorbidity index, race, Hispanic ethnicity, marital status, and year. The adjusted association between NMD and HZ was not statistically significant, and was in the unexpected direction (adjusted OR=0.81, 95%CI = 0.52, 1.26). However, just 22 patients had both NMD and HZ.
Conclusion
OSA is associated later development of HZ. This supports a premise that OSA lowers immune status.
Support (If Any)
This material is the result of work supported with resources and the use of facilities at the James A. Haley Veterans’ Hospital.
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