Aim
The negative correlation between temperature and body size of ectothermic animals (broadly known as the temperature‐size rule or TSR) is a widely observed pattern, especially in aquatic ...organisms. Studies have claimed that the TSR arises due to decreased oxygen solubility and increasing metabolic costs at warmer temperatures, whereby oxygen supply to a large body becomes increasingly difficult. However, mixed empirical evidence has led to a controversy about the mechanisms affecting species’ size and performance under different temperatures. We review the main competing genetic, physiological and ecological explanations for the TSR and suggest a roadmap to move the field forward.
Location
Global.
Taxa
Aquatic ectotherms.
Time period
1980–present.
Results
We show that current studies cannot discriminate among alternative hypotheses and none of the hypotheses can explain all TSR‐related observations. To resolve this impasse, we need experiments and field‐sampling programmes that specifically compare alternative mechanisms and formally consider energetics related to growth costs, oxygen supply and behaviour. We highlight the distinction between evolutionary and plastic mechanisms, and suggest that the oxygen limitation debate should separate processes operating on short, decadal and millennial time‐scales.
Conclusions
Despite decades of research, we remain uncertain whether the TSR is an adaptive response to temperature‐related physiological (enzyme activity) or ecological changes (food, predation and other mortality), or a response to constraints operating at a cellular level (oxygen supply and associated costs). To make progress, ecologists, physiologists, modellers and geneticists should work together to develop a cross‐disciplinary research programme that integrates theory and data, explores time‐scales over which the TSR operates, and assesses limits to adaptation or plasticity. We identify four questions for such a programme. Answering these questions is crucial given the widespread impacts of climate change and reliance of management on models that are highly dependent on accurate representation of ecological and physiological responses to temperature.
The size and age at which individuals mature is rapidly changing due to plastic and evolved responses to fisheries harvest and global warming. Understanding the nature of these changes is essential ...because maturity schedules are critical in determining population demography and ultimately, the economic value and viability of fisheries. Detecting maturity changes is, however, practically difficult and costly. A recently proposed biphasic growth modelling likelihood profiling method offers great potential as it can statistically estimate age-at-maturity from population-level size-at-age data, using the change-point in growth that occurs at maturity. Yet, the performance of the method on typical marine fisheries datasets remains untested. Here, we assessed the suitability of 12 North Sea and Australian species’ datasets for the likelihood profiling approach. The majority of the fisheries datasets were unsuitable as they had too small sample sizes or too large size-at-age variation. Further, datasets that did satisfy data requirements generally showed no correlation between empirical and model-derived maturity estimates. To understand why the biphasic approach had low performance we explored its sensitivity using simulated datasets. We found that method performance for marine fisheries datasets is likely to be low because of: (1) truncated age structures due to intensive fishing, (2) an under-representation of young individuals in datasets due to common fisheries-sampling protocols, and (3) large intrapopulation variability in growth curves. To improve our ability to detect maturation changes from population level size-at-age data we need to improve data collection protocols for fisheries monitoring.
Ectotherms generally shrink under experimental warming, but whether this pattern extends to wild populations is uncertain. We analysed ten million visual survey records, spanning the Australian ...continent and multiple decades and comprising the most common coastal reef fishes (335 species). We found that temperature indeed drives spatial and temporal changes in fish body size, but not consistently in the negative fashion expected. Around 55% of species were smaller in warmer waters (especially among small-bodied species), while 45% were bigger. The direction of a species' response to temperature through space was generally consistent with its response to temperature increase through time at any given location, suggesting that spatial trends could help forecast fish responses to long-term warming. However, temporal changes were about ten times faster than spatial trends (~4% versus ~40% body size change per 1 °C change through space and time, respectively). The rapid and variable responses of fish size to warming may herald unexpected impacts on ecosystem restructuring, with potentially greater consequences than if all species were shrinking.
One of the most pronounced effects of climate change on the world’s oceans is the (generally) poleward movement of species and fishery stocks in response to increasing water temperatures. In some ...regions, such redistributions are already causing dramatic shifts in marine socioecological systems, profoundly altering ecosystem structure and function, challenging domestic and international fisheries, and impacting on human communities. Such effects are expected to become increasingly widespread as waters continue to warm and species ranges continue to shift. Actions taken over the coming decade (2021–2030) can help us adapt to species redistributions and minimise negative impacts on ecosystems and human communities, achieving a more sustainable future in the face of ecosystem change. We describe key drivers related to climate-driven species redistributions that are likely to have a high impact and influence on whether a sustainable future is achievable by 2030. We posit two different futures—a ‘business as usual’ future and a technically achievable and more sustainable future, aligned with the Sustainable Development Goals. We then identify concrete actions that provide a pathway towards the more sustainable 2030 and that acknowledge and include Indigenous perspectives. Achieving this sustainable future will depend on improved monitoring and detection, and on adaptive, cooperative management to proactively respond to the challenge of species redistribution. We synthesise examples of such actions as the basis of a strategic approach to tackle this global-scale challenge for the benefit of humanity and ecosystems.
The multifaceted effects of climate change on physical and biogeochemical processes are rapidly altering marine ecosystems but often are considered in isolation, leaving our understanding of ...interactions between these drivers of ecosystem change relatively poor. This is particularly true for shallow coastal ecosystems, which are fuelled by a combination of distinct pelagic and benthic energy pathways that may respond to climate change in fundamentally distinct ways. The fish production supported by these systems is likely to be impacted by climate change differently to those of offshore and shelf ecosystems, which have relatively simpler food webs and mostly lack benthic primary production sources. We developed a novel, multispecies size spectrum model for shallow coastal reefs, specifically designed to simulate potential interactive outcomes of changing benthic and pelagic energy inputs and temperatures and calculate the relative importance of these variables for the fish community. Our model, calibrated using field data from an extensive temperate reef monitoring program, predicts that changes in resource levels will have much stronger impacts on fish biomass and yields than changes driven by physiological responses to temperature. Under increased plankton abundance, species in all fish trophic groups were predicted to increase in biomass, average size, and yields. By contrast, changes in benthic resources produced variable responses across fish trophic groups. Increased benthic resources led to increasing benthivorous and piscivorous fish biomasses, yields, and mean body sizes, but biomass decreases among herbivore and planktivore species. When resource changes were combined with warming seas, physiological responses generally decreased species' biomass and yields. Our results suggest that understanding changes in benthic production and its implications for coastal fisheries should be a priority research area. Our modified size spectrum model provides a framework for further study of benthic and pelagic energy pathways that can be easily adapted to other ecosystems.
Abstract
The Ponto-Caspian region is an endemicity hotspot that harbours several crustacean radiations, among which amphipods are the most diverse. These poorly known species are severely threatened ...in their native range, while at the same time they are invading European inland waters with significant ecological consequences. A proper taxonomic knowledge of this fauna is paramount for its conservation within the native region and monitoring outside of it. Here, we assemble a DNA barcode reference library for nearly 60% of all known Ponto-Caspian amphipod species. We use several methods to define molecular operational taxonomic units (MOTUs), based on two mitochondrial markers (COI and 16S), and assess their congruence with current species-level taxonomy based on morphology. Depending on the method, we find that 54–69% of species had congruent morpho-molecular boundaries. The cases of incongruence resulted from lumping distinct morphospecies into a single MOTU (7–27%), splitting a morphospecies into several MOTUs (4–28%), or both (4–11%). MOTUs defined by distance-based methods without a priori divergence thresholds showed the highest congruence with morphological taxonomy. These results indicate that DNA barcoding is valuable for clarifying the diversity of Ponto-Caspian amphipods, but reveals that extensive work is needed to resolve taxonomic uncertainties. Our study advances the DNA barcode reference library for the European aquatic biota, paving the way towards improved taxonomic knowledge needed to enhance monitoring and conservation efforts.
Climate‐driven species redistribution is pervasive and accelerating, yet the complex mechanisms at play remain poorly understood. The implications of large‐scale species redistribution for natural ...systems and human societies have resulted in a large number of studies exploring the effects on individual species and ecological communities worldwide. Whilst many studies have investigated discrete components of species redistribution, the integration required for a more complete mechanistic understanding is lacking. In this paper, we provide a framework for synthesising approaches to more robustly understand and predict marine species redistributions. We conceptualise the stages and processes involved in climate‐driven species redistribution at increasing levels of biological organisation, and synthesize the laboratory, field and modelling approaches used to study redistribution related processes at individual, population and community levels. We then summarise links between scales of biological organisation and methodological approaches in a hierarchical framework that represents an integrated mechanistic assessment of climate‐driven species redistributions. In a rapidly expanding field of research, this framework provides direction for: 1) guiding future research, 2) highlighting key knowledge gaps, 3) fostering data exchange and collaboration between disciplines and 4) improving shared capacity to predict and therefore, inform the proactive management of climate impacts on natural systems.
•Best practices for calibrating complex process-based ecosystem models are described.•We emphasize the importance of understanding the model structure and data sources.•Strategies to estimate core ...parameters for an Atlantis ecosystem model are defined.•Key diagnostic routines to help modelers identify erroneous parameters are outlined.•A pedigree to evaluate ecosystem model confidence and data quality is proposed.
Calibration of complex, process-based ecosystem models is a timely task with modellers challenged by many parameters, multiple outputs of interest and often a scarcity of empirical data. Incorrect calibration can lead to unrealistic ecological and socio-economic predictions with the modeller’s experience and available knowledge of the modelled system largely determining the success of model calibration. Here we provide an overview of best practices when calibrating an Atlantis marine ecosystem model, a widely adopted framework that includes the parameters and processes comprised in many different ecosystem models. We highlight the importance of understanding the model structure and data sources of the modelled system. We then focus on several model outputs (biomass trajectories, age distributions, condition at age, realised diet proportions, and spatial maps) and describe diagnostic routines that can assist modellers to identify likely erroneous parameter values. We detail strategies to fine tune values of four groups of core parameters: growth, predator-prey interactions, recruitment and mortality. Additionally, we provide a pedigree routine to evaluate the uncertainty of an Atlantis ecosystem model based on data sources used. Describing best and current practices will better equip future modellers of complex, processed-based ecosystem models to provide a more reliable means of explaining and predicting the dynamics of marine ecosystems. Moreover, it promotes greater transparency between modellers and end-users, including resource managers.
Fishing is a strong selective force and is supposed to select for earlier maturation at smaller body size. However, the extent to which fishing‐induced evolution is shaping ecosystems remains ...debated. This is in part because it is challenging to disentangle fishing from other selective forces (e.g., size‐structured predation and cannibalism) in complex ecosystems undergoing rapid change.
Changes in maturation size from fishing and predation have previously been explored with multi‐species physiologically structured models but assumed separation of ecological and evolutionary timescales. To assess the eco‐evolutionary impact of fishing and predation at the same timescale, we developed a stochastic physiologically size‐structured food‐web model, where new phenotypes are introduced randomly through time enabling dynamic simulation of species' relative maturation sizes under different types of selection pressures.
Using the model, we carried out a fully factorial in silico experiment to assess how maturation size would change in the absence and presence of both fishing and predation (including cannibalism). We carried out ten replicate stochastic simulations exposed to all combinations of fishing and predation in a model community of nine interacting fish species ranging in their maximum sizes from 10 g to 100 kg. We visualized and statistically analyzed the results using linear models.
The effects of fishing on maturation size depended on whether or not predation was enabled and differed substantially across species. Fishing consistently reduced the maturation sizes of two largest species whether or not predation was enabled and this decrease was seen even at low fishing intensities (F = 0.2 per year). In contrast, the maturation sizes of the three smallest species evolved to become smaller through time but this happened regardless of the levels of predation or fishing. For the four medium‐size species, the effect of fishing was highly variable with more species showing significant and larger fishing effects in the presence of predation.
Ultimately our results suggest that the interactive effects of predation and fishing can have marked effects on species' maturation sizes, but that, at least for the largest species, predation does not counterbalance the evolutionary effect of fishing. Our model also produced relative maturation sizes that are broadly consistent with empirical estimates for many fish species.
Fishing is a strong evolutionary force, but its interplay with predation remains unclear. Using a community size‐spectrum model we show that fishing has strongest evolutionary effect on large predatory species, but minor impact on small species. Middle‐sized species are sandwiched between fishing and predation and their responses are highly variable.
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