To provide estimates of the relative rate of COVID-19 death in people <65 years old versus older individuals in the general population, the absolute risk of COVID-19 death at the population level ...during the first epidemic wave, and the proportion of COVID-19 deaths in non-elderly people without underlying diseases in epicenters of the pandemic.
Cross-sectional survey of countries and US states with at least 800 COVID-19 deaths as of April 24, 2020 and with information on the number of deaths in people with age <65. Data were available for 14 countries (Belgium, Canada, France, Germany, India, Ireland, Italy, Mexico, Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, UK) and 13 US states (California, Connecticut, Florida, Georgia, Illinois, Indiana, Louisiana, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania). We also examined available data on COVID-19 deaths in people with age <65 and no underlying diseases.
Proportion of COVID-19 deaths in people <65 years old; relative mortality rate of COVID-19 death in people <65 versus ≥65 years old; absolute risk of COVID-19 death in people <65 and in those ≥80 years old in the general population as of June 17, 2020; absolute COVID-19 mortality rate expressed as equivalent of mortality rate from driving a motor vehicle.
Individuals with age <65 account for 4.5–11.2% of all COVID-19 deaths in European countries and Canada, 8.3–22.7% in the US locations, and were the majority in India and Mexico. People <65 years old had 30- to 100-fold lower risk of COVID-19 death than those ≥65 years old in 11 European countries and Canada, 16- to 52-fold lower risk in US locations, and less than 10-fold in India and Mexico. The absolute risk of COVID-19 death as of June 17, 2020 for people <65 years old in high-income countries ranged from 10 (Germany) to 349 per million (New Jersey) and it was 5 per million in India and 96 per million in Mexico. The absolute risk of COVID-19 death for people ≥80 years old ranged from 0.6 (Florida) to 17.5 per thousand (Connecticut). The COVID-19 mortality rate in people <65 years old during the period of fatalities from the epidemic was equivalent to the mortality rate from driving between 4 and 82 miles per day for 13 countries and 5 states, and was higher (equivalent to the mortality rate from driving 106–483 miles per day) for 8 other states and the UK. People <65 years old without underlying predisposing conditions accounted for only 0.7–3.6% of all COVID-19 deaths in France, Italy, Netherlands, Sweden, Georgia, and New York City and 17.7% in Mexico.
People <65 years old have very small risks of COVID-19 death even in pandemic epicenters and deaths for people <65 years without underlying predisposing conditions are remarkably uncommon. Strategies focusing specifically on protecting high-risk elderly individuals should be considered in managing the pandemic.
•People <65 years old have 16–100 fold lower risk of COVID-19 deaths than older people.•Age risk gradients are less steep in India and Mexico.•Absolute risks of COVID-19 in the population are low for people <65 years old.•COVID-19 deaths occur sparsely in people <65 without underlying conditions.
This mixed design synthesis aimed to estimate the infection fatality rate (IFR) of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in community-dwelling elderly populations and other age groups from ...seroprevalence studies. Protocol:
https://osf.io/47cgb
. Eligible were seroprevalence studies done in 2020 and identified by any of four existing systematic reviews; with ≥ 500 participants aged ≥ 70 years; presenting seroprevalence in elderly people; aimed to generate samples reflecting the general population; and whose location had available data on cumulative COVID-19 deaths in elderly (primary cutoff ≥ 70 years; ≥ 65 or ≥ 60 also eligible). We extracted the most fully adjusted (if unavailable, unadjusted) seroprevalence estimates; age- and residence-stratified cumulative COVID-19 deaths (until 1 week after the seroprevalence sampling midpoint) from official reports; and population statistics, to calculate IFRs adjusted for test performance. Sample size-weighted IFRs were estimated for countries with multiple estimates. Thirteen seroprevalence surveys representing 11 high-income countries were included in the main analysis. Median IFR in community-dwelling elderly and elderly overall was 2.9% (range 1.8–9.7%) and 4.5% (range 2.5–16.7%) without accounting for seroreversion (2.2% and 4.0%, respectively, accounting for 5% monthly seroreversion). Multiple sensitivity analyses yielded similar results. IFR was higher with larger proportions of people > 85 years. The IFR of COVID-19 in community-dwelling elderly is lower than previously reported.
Background:
Pragmatic trials are increasingly recognized for providing real-world evidence on treatment choices.
Objective:
The objective of this study is to investigate the use and characteristics ...of pragmatic trials in multiple sclerosis (MS).
Methods:
Systematic literature search and analysis of pragmatic trials on any intervention published up to 2022. The assessment of pragmatism with PRECIS-2 (PRagmatic Explanatory Continuum Indicator Summary-2) is performed.
Results:
We identified 48 pragmatic trials published 1967–2022 that included a median of 82 participants (interquartile range (IQR) = 42–160) to assess typically supportive care interventions (n = 41; 85%). Only seven trials assessed drugs (15%). Only three trials (6%) included >500 participants. Trials were mostly from the United Kingdom (n = 18; 38%), Italy (n = 6; 13%), the United States and Denmark (each n = 5; 10%). Primary outcomes were diverse, for example, quality-of-life, physical functioning, or disease activity. Only 1 trial (2%) used routinely collected data for outcome ascertainment. No trial was very pragmatic in all design aspects, but 14 trials (29%) were widely pragmatic (i.e. PRECIS-2 score ⩾ 4/5 in all domains).
Conclusion:
Only few and mostly small pragmatic trials exist in MS which rarely assess drugs. Despite the widely available routine data infrastructures, very few trials utilize them. There is an urgent need to leverage the potential of this pioneering study design to provide useful randomized real-world evidence.
We assessed the rigor and reproducibility (R&R) activities of institutions funded by the National Center for Advancing Translational Sciences (NCTSA) through a survey and website search (
= 61). Of ...50 institutional responses, 84% reported incorporating some form of R&R training, 68% reported devoted R&R training, 30% monitored R&R practices, and 10% incentivized them. Website searches revealed 9 (15%) freely available training curricula, and 7 (11%) institutional programs specifically created to enhance R&R. NCATS should formally integrate R&R principles into its translational science models and institutional requirements.
Umbrella review is one of the terms used to describe an overview of systematic reviews. During the last years, a rapid increase in the number of umbrella reviews on epidemiological studies has been ...observed, but there is no systematic assessment of their methodological and reporting characteristics. Our study aims to fill this gap by performing a systematic mapping of umbrella reviews in epidemiological research.
We will perform a meta-epidemiological study including a systematic review in MEDLINE and EMBASE to identify all the umbrella reviews that focused on systematic reviews of epidemiological studies and were published from inception until December 31, 2022. We will consider eligible any research article which was designed as an umbrella review and summarized systematic reviews and meta-analyses of epidemiological studies. From each eligible article, we will extract information about the research topic, the methodological characteristics, and the reporting characteristics. We will examine whether the umbrella reviews assessed the strength of the available evidence and the rigor of the included systematic reviews. We will also examine whether these characteristics change across time.
Our study will systematically appraise the methodological and reporting characteristics of published umbrella reviews in epidemiological literature. The findings of our study can be used to improve the design and conduct of future umbrella reviews, to derive a standardized set of reporting and methodological guidelines for umbrella reviews, and to allow further meta-epidemiological work.
osf.io/sxzc6.
IntroductionPerinatal complications, such as perinatal depression and preterm birth, are major causes of morbidity and mortality for the mother and the child. Prediction of high risk can allow for ...early delivery of existing interventions for prevention. This ongoing study aims to use digital phenotyping data from the Mom2B smartphone application to develop models to predict women at high risk for mental and somatic complications.Methods and analysisAll Swedish-speaking women over 18 years, who are either pregnant or within 3 months postpartum are eligible to participate by downloading the Mom2B smartphone app. We aim to recruit at least 5000 participants with completed outcome measures. Throughout the pregnancy and within the first year postpartum, both active and passive data are collected via the app in an effort to establish a participant’s digital phenotype. Active data collection consists of surveys related to participant background information, mental and physical health, lifestyle, and social circumstances, as well as voice recordings. Participants’ general smartphone activity, geographical movement patterns, social media activity and cognitive patterns can be estimated through passive data collection from smartphone sensors and activity logs. The outcomes will be measured using surveys, such as the Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale, and through linkage to national registers, from where information on registered clinical diagnoses and received care, including prescribed medication, can be obtained. Advanced machine learning and deep learning techniques will be applied to these multimodal data in order to develop accurate algorithms for the prediction of perinatal depression and preterm birth. In this way, earlier intervention may be possible.Ethics and disseminationEthical approval has been obtained from the Swedish Ethical Review Authority (dnr: 2019/01170, with amendments), and the project fully fulfils the General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) requirements. All participants provide consent to participate and can withdraw their participation at any time. Results from this project will be disseminated in international peer-reviewed journals and presented in relevant conferences.
The Transgender Congruence Scale (TCS) is a non-binary tool used in Sweden for gender dysphoria (GD) assessment; however, its Swedish version has not been validated. To investigate the psychometric ...properties of the TCS, its capacity to distinguish individuals with GD and its concurrent validity compared to other scales. Patients with GD (n = 135) and controls (n = 443) filled in a questionnaire containing sociodemographic questions, the TCS, the Utrecht Gender Dysphoria Scale (UGDS), and the Gender Identity/Gender Dysphoria Questionnaire for Adolescents and Adults (GIDYQ-AA). TCS had good discriminatory validity and internal consistency. Patients with GD, stratified by birth-assigned sex, had lower TCS scores compared to controls. Confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) supported the two-factor model of the TCS. Multiple-group CFA suggested measurement invariance between birth-assigned sexes and configural invariance between patients with GD and controls. Area under the ROC curve for birth-assigned males was 0.991 and for females 0.994. A TCS mean value of three provided sensitivity 94.3% and 95.1% as well as specificity 98.6% and 98% for aM and aF, respectively. The TCS was significantly correlated to UGDS and GIDYQ-AA. The TCS may be a valuable tool in the clinical assessment of individuals with GD.
Neuroticism is not only associated with affective disorders but also with certain somatic health problems. However, studies assessing whether neuroticism is associated with adverse obstetric or ...neonatal outcomes are scarce. This observational study comprises first-time mothers (n = 1969) with singleton pregnancies from several cohorts based in Uppsala, Sweden. To assess neuroticism-related personality, the Swedish universities Scales of Personality was used. Swedish national health registers were used to extract outcomes and confounders. In logistic regression models, odds ratios (ORs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated for the outcomes by an increase of 63 units of neuroticism (equalling the interquartile range). Analyses were adjusted for maternal age, educational level, height, body mass index, year of delivery, smoking during pregnancy, involuntary childlessness, and psychiatric morbidity. Main outcomes were mode of delivery, gestational diabetes mellitus, gestational hypertension, preeclampsia, induction of delivery, prolonged delivery, severe lacerations, placental retention, postpartum haemorrhage, premature birth, infant born small or large for gestational age, and Apgar score. Neuroticism was not independently associated with adverse obstetric or neonatal outcomes besides gestational diabetes. For future studies, models examining sub-components of neuroticism or pregnancy-specific anxiety are encouraged.
Debate exists about whether extra protection of elderly and other vulnerable individuals is feasible in COVID-19. We aimed to assess the relative infection rates in the elderly vs the non-elderly ...and, secondarily, in children vs adults.
We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis of seroprevalence studies conducted in the pre-vaccination era. We identified representative national studies without high risk of bias through SeroTracker and PubMed searches (last updated May 17, 2022). We noted seroprevalence estimates for children, non-elderly adults, and elderly adults, using cut-offs of 20 and 60 years (or as close to these ages, if they were unavailable) and compared them between different age groups.
We included 38 national seroprevalence studies from 36 different countries comprising 826 963 participants. Twenty-six of these studies also included pediatric populations and twenty-five were from high-income countries. The median ratio of seroprevalence in elderly vs non-elderly adults (or non-elderly in general, if pediatric and adult population data were not offered separately) was 0.90-0.95 in different analyses, with large variability across studies. In five studies (all in high-income countries), we observed significant protection of the elderly with a ratio of <0.40, with a median of 0.83 in high-income countries and 1.02 elsewhere. The median ratio of seroprevalence in children vs adults was 0.89 and only one study showed a significant ratio of <0.40. The main limitation of our study is the inaccuracies and biases in seroprevalence studies.
Precision shielding of elderly community-dwelling populations before the availability of vaccines was indicated in some high-income countries, but most countries failed to achieve any substantial focused protection.
Open Science Framework (available at: https://osf.io/xvupr).
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