Halving carbon emissions from tropical deforestation by 2020 could help bring the international community closer to the agreed goal of <2 degree increase in global average temperature change and is ...consistent with a target set last year by the governments, corporations, indigenous peoples' organizations and non‐governmental organizations that signed the New York Declaration on Forests (NYDF). We assemble and refine a robust dataset to establish a 2001–2013 benchmark for average annual carbon emissions from gross tropical deforestation at 2.270 Gt CO₂ yr⁻¹. Brazil did not sign the NYDF, yet from 2001 to 2013, Brazil ranks first for both carbon emissions from gross tropical deforestation and reductions in those emissions – its share of the total declined from a peak of 69% in 2003 to a low of 20% in 2012. Indonesia, an NYDF signatory, is the second highest emitter, peaking in 2012 at 0.362 Gt CO₂ yr⁻¹ before declining to 0.205 Gt CO₂ yr⁻¹ in 2013. The other 14 NYDF tropical country signatories were responsible for a combined average of 0.317 Gt CO₂ yr⁻¹, while the other 86 tropical country non‐signatories were responsible for a combined average of 0.688 Gt CO₂ yr⁻¹. We outline two scenarios for achieving the 50% emission reduction target by 2020, both emphasizing the critical role of Brazil and the need to reverse the trends of increasing carbon emissions from gross tropical deforestation in many other tropical countries that, from 2001 to 2013, have largely offset Brazil's reductions. Achieving the target will therefore be challenging, even though it is in the self‐interest of the international community. Conserving rather than cutting down tropical forests requires shifting economic development away from a dependence on natural resource depletion toward recognition of the dependence of human societies on the natural capital that tropical forests represent and the goods and services they provide.
Abstract
Amazon deforestation has been growing since 2012 and more recently under record rates. In fact, a new wave of rainforest destruction is on, challenging environmental agencies and ...policymakers. Political negligence has boosted deforestation in the Amazon, when coupled with deforestation drives that we already know about, as well as exempting environmental offenders and clearing the way to major infrastructure projects, in addition to weakening environmental agencies and command and control policies. In this letter, we share perspectives on the dynamics of deforestation alerts in the Brazilian Amazon and the action of public enforcement agencies, to draw attention to the urgency of supporting these entities for resuming the fight against deforestation. Our results reveal the few enforcement actions on deforestation alerts (1.3%) by the major environmental agency from the federal government. When compared with state government agencies, our in-depth case study showed a higher number of enforcement actions, promoting accountability for illegal deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon. It is evident that budget cuts for federal environmental agencies and changes in enforcement procedures have jeopardized actions to combat illegal deforestation. Our analysis calls for federal agencies to resume their powers, and for state agencies to recognize their role in environmental reinforcement and assigning liability. In the end, we list five key factors for reestablishing enforcement actions by public agencies for fighting deforestation and improving dissuasive effects.
Most of the world's nations (around 130) have committed to reaching net‐zero carbon dioxide or greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2050, yet robust policies rarely underpin these ambitions. To ...investigate whether existing and expected national policies will allow Brazil to meet its net‐zero GHG emissions pledge by 2050, we applied a detailed regional integrated assessment modelling approach. This included quantifying the role of nature‐based solutions, such as the protection and restoration of ecosystems, and engineered solutions, such as bioenergy with carbon capture and storage. Our results highlight ecosystem protection as the most critical cost‐effective climate mitigation measure for Brazil, whereas relying heavily on costly and not‐mature‐yet engineered solutions will jeopardise Brazil's chances of achieving its net‐zero pledge by mid‐century. We show that the full implementation of Brazil's Forest Code (FC), a key policy for emission reduction in Brazil, would be enough for the country to achieve its short‐term climate targets up to 2030. However, it would reduce the gap to net‐zero GHG emissions by 38% by 2050. The FC, combined with zero legal deforestation and additional large‐scale ecosystem restoration, would reduce this gap by 62% by mid‐century, keeping Brazil on a clear path towards net‐zero GHG emissions by around 2040. While some level of deployment of negative emissions technologies will be needed for Brazil to achieve and sustain its net‐zero pledge, we show that the more mitigation measures from the land‐use sector, the less costly engineered solutions from the energy sector will be required. Our analysis underlines the urgent need for Brazil to go beyond existing policies to help fight climate emergency, to align its short‐ and long‐term climate targets, and to build climate resilience while curbing biodiversity loss.
We assess the role of national policies and nature‐based solutions (NbS) in Brazil's net‐zero pathways using a comprehensive regional integrated assessment modelling approach. Results indicate that going beyond Brazil's Forest Code, through zero deforestation and enhanced large‐scale restoration (FC+ scenario), keeps Brazil on a clear path towards net zero by around 2040. The more NbS, the less costly engineered solutions (e.g. bioenergy with carbon capture and storage) are required to bridge the gap to net zero. NbS could mitigate nearly 80% of Brazil's net‐zero pledge while building climate resilience and curbing biodiversity loss.
Tropical deforestation continues at alarming rates with profound impacts on ecosystems, climate, and livelihoods, prompting renewed commitments to halt its continuation. Although it is well ...established that agriculture is a dominant driver of deforestation, rates and mechanisms remain disputed and often lack a clear evidence base. We synthesize the best available pantropical evidence to provide clarity on how agriculture drives deforestation. Although most (90 to 99%) deforestation across the tropics 2011 to 2015 was driven by agriculture, only 45 to 65% of deforested land became productive agriculture within a few years. Therefore, ending deforestation likely requires combining measures to create deforestation-free supply chains with landscape governance interventions. We highlight key remaining evidence gaps including deforestation trends, commodity-specific land-use dynamics, and data from tropical dry forests and forests across Africa.
Forest loss for food
Agricultural expansion is recognized as a major driver of forest loss in the tropics. However, accurate data on the links between agriculture and tropical deforestation are lacking. Pendrill
et al
. synthesized existing research and datasets to quantify the extent to which tropical deforestation from 2011 to 2015 was associated with agriculture. They estimated that at least 90% of deforested land occurred in landscapes where agriculture drove forest loss, but only about half was converted into productive agricultural land. Data availability and trends vary across regions, suggesting complex links between agriculture and forest loss. —BEL
A review shows that most tropical deforestation is associated, directly or indirectly, with agriculture.
BACKGROUND
Agricultural expansion is a primary cause of tropical deforestation and therefore a key driver of greenhouse gas emissions, biodiversity loss, and the degradation of ecosystem services vital to the livelihoods of forest-dependent and rural people. However, agriculture-driven deforestation can take many forms, from the direct expansion of pastures and cropland into forests to more complex or indirect pathways. A clear understanding of the different ways in which agriculture drives deforestation is essential for designing effective policy responses. To address this need we provide a review of the literature on pantropical agriculture-driven deforestation and synthesize the best available evidence to quantify dominant agricultural land-use changes relating to deforestation. We consider the policy implications of this assessment, especially for burgeoning demand-side and supply-chain interventions seeking to address deforestation.
ADVANCES
New methods and data have advanced our understanding of deforestation and subsequent land uses. However, only a handful of studies estimate agriculture-driven deforestation across the entirety of the tropics. Although these studies agree that agriculture is the dominant land use following forest clearing, their estimates of pantropical rates of agriculture-driven deforestation during the period 2011 to 2015 vary greatly—between 4.3 and 9.6 million hectares (Mha) per year—with our synthesized estimate being 6.4 to 8.8 Mha per year. This apparent uncertainty in the amount of agriculture-driven deforestation can be disentangled by distinguishing between the different ways in which agriculture contributes to deforestation; we find that while the overwhelming majority (90 to 99%) of tropical deforestation occurs in landscapes where agriculture is the dominant driver of tree cover loss, a smaller share (45 to 65%) of deforestation is due to the expansion of active agricultural production into forests. Multiple lines of evidence show that the remainder of agriculture-driven deforestation does not result in the expansion of productive agricultural land but instead is a result of activities such as speculative clearing, land tenure issues, short-lived and abandoned agriculture, and agriculture-related fires spreading to adjacent forests.
Different land uses and commodities often interact to drive deforestation. However, pasture expansion is the most important driver by far, accounting for around half of the deforestation resulting in agricultural production across the tropics. Oil palm and soy cultivation together account for at least a fifth, and six other crops—rubber, cocoa, coffee, rice, maize, and cassava—likely account for most of the remainder, with large regional variations and higher levels of uncertainty.
OUTLOOK
This Review points to three key areas where a stronger evidence base would advance global efforts to curb agriculture-driven deforestation: First, consistent pantropical data on deforestation trends are lacking. This limits our ability to assess overall progress on reducing deforestation and account for leakage across regions. Second, with the exception of soy and oil palm the attribution of deforestation to forest risk commodities is often based on coarse-grained agricultural statistics, outdated or modeled maps, or local case studies. Third, uncertainties are greatest in dry and seasonal tropics and across the African continent in particular.
This assessment highlights that although public and private policies promoting deforestation-free international supply chains have a critical role to play, their ability to reduce deforestation on the ground is fundamentally limited. One-third to one-half of agriculture-driven deforestation does not result in actively managed agricultural land. Moreover, the majority—approximately three-quarters—of the expansion of agriculture into forests is driven by domestic demand in producer countries, especially for beef and cereals, including much of the deforestation across the African continent. These data suggest that the potential for international supply chain measures to help reduce tropical deforestation is more likely to be achieved through interventions in deforestation risk areas that focus on strengthening sustainable rural development and territorial governance.
Agriculture contributes to deforestation in many ways which often interact.
Most tropical deforestation occurs in landscapes where agriculture is the dominant driver of forest loss. Part of this agriculture-driven deforestation results in agricultural production (left) meeting domestic and export demand for various agricultural commodities. However, agriculture-driven deforestation also occurs without expansion of managed agricultural land through several mechanisms (right), which may lead to the deforested area being abandoned or semi-abandoned. Incomplete agricultural records also explain a share of such deforestation.
Abstract Brazil ranks fifth in greenhouse gas emissions globally due to land use change. As a signatory to the Paris Agreement, Brazil must periodically report its GHG emissions as well as present ...mitigation targets set in the Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC). The SEEG Brazil Initiative (Greenhouse Gas Emission and Removal Estimating System) generates independent estimates of GHG emissions and removals since 2013, and in 2020, the estimation method for the land use change sector has been improved. This study aimed to (1) present these methodological advancements, including the spatial allocation of annual emissions and removals due to land use change (LUC) in Brazil at a 30 m spatial scale, and (2) explore the emission and removal patterns observed in Brazil from 1990 to 2019. The method presented here is built upon—but improves—the approach used by Brazil’s official National Inventories to estimate GHG emissions and removals. The improvements presented here include exploring emissions to the municipality level and using an annual updated time series of land use and land cover maps. Estimated greenhouse gas emissions from the LUC sector ranged from 687 Mt of CO 2 e in 2011 to a peak of 2150 Mt of CO 2 e in 2003. In 2010, removals nearly offset gross emissions in the sector, with a net emission of 116 Mt of CO 2 e. The trend observed in recent years was an increase in emissions, decreasing Brazil’s likelihood of meeting its NDC targets. Emission profiles vary across the country, but in every biome, the conversion of primary native vegetation is the predominant transition type. If Brazil managed to curb deforestation, the total GHG emissions from the land use change sector would decrease by 96%, mitigating around 44% of total emissions.
Brazil has a monitoring system to track annual forest conversion in the Amazon and most recently to monitor the Cerrado biome. However, there is still a gap of annual land use and land cover (LULC) ...information in all Brazilian biomes in the country. Existing countrywide efforts to map land use and land cover lack regularly updates and high spatial resolution time-series data to better understand historical land use and land cover dynamics, and the subsequent impacts in the country biomes. In this study, we described a novel approach and the results achieved by a multi-disciplinary network called MapBiomas to reconstruct annual land use and land cover information between 1985 and 2017 for Brazil, based on random forest applied to Landsat archive using Google Earth Engine. We mapped five major classes: forest, non-forest natural formation, farming, non-vegetated areas, and water. These classes were broken into two sub-classification levels leading to the most comprehensive and detailed mapping for the country at a 30 m pixel resolution. The average overall accuracy of the land use and land cover time-series, based on a stratified random sample of 75,000 pixel locations, was 89% ranging from 73 to 95% in the biomes. The 33 years of LULC change data series revealed that Brazil lost 71 Mha of natural vegetation, mostly to cattle ranching and agriculture activities. Pasture expanded by 46% from 1985 to 2017, and agriculture by 172%, mostly replacing old pasture fields. We also identified that 86 Mha of the converted native vegetation was undergoing some level of regrowth. Several applications of the MapBiomas dataset are underway, suggesting that reconstructing historical land use and land cover change maps is useful for advancing the science and to guide social, economic and environmental policy decision-making processes in Brazil.
This work presents the SEEG platform, a 46-year long dataset of greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) in Brazil (1970-2015) providing more than 2 million data records for the Agriculture, Energy, Industry, ...Waste and Land Use Change Sectors at national and subnational levels. The SEEG dataset was developed by the Climate Observatory, a Brazilian civil society initiative, based on the IPCC guidelines and Brazilian National Inventories embedded with country specific emission factors and processes, raw data from multiple official and non-official sources, and organized together with social and economic indicators. Once completed, the SEEG dataset was converted into a spreadsheet format and shared via web-platform that, by means of simple queries, allows users to search data by emission sources and country and state activities. Because of its effectiveness in producing and making available data on a consistent and accessible basis, SEEG may significantly increase the capacity of civil society, scientists and stakeholders to understand and anticipate trends related to GHG emissions as well as its implications to public policies in Brazil.
In 1993, Toronto witnessed the foundation of the Forest Stewardship Council (FSC),
probably the most daring and effective civil society initiative for the promotion of
good forest management in the ...world.
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