Experiences from the Swedish Value of Time study Börjesson, Maria; Eliasson, Jonas
Transportation research. Part A, Policy and practice,
January 2014, 2014-01-00, 2014, Letnik:
59
Journal Article
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•We present insights and results from the Swedish VTTS study relevant for appraisal.•We summarize recent econometric advances and how these enable better VTTS estimates.•The influence of sign and ...size of the time saving is estimated and discussed.•We show how the VTTS depends on trip and traveller characteristics including income.•We review and discuss in what dimensions VTTS should be differentiated in appraisal.
We provide a synthesis of results and insights from the Swedish Value of Time study, with focus on what is relevant for transport appraisal and understanding travel behavior. We summarize recent econometric advances, and show how these enable a better understanding and identification of the value of time distribution. The influence of the sign and size of changes is estimated and discussed, including the problems of loss aversion and the value of small time savings. Further, we show how the value of time depends on trip and traveler characteristics, discuss in what dimensions the value of time should be differentiated in appraisal, and provide recommended values for use in applied transport appraisal.
•To what extent can state-of-the-art forecasting models predict the demand for HSR?•Validates the Swedish long distance model, its elasticities, and HSR forecast.•Compare modelled and observed market ...shares and long distance elasticities.•The linear-in-parameters model predicts the demand for HSR reasonably well.•The model applying Box–Cox has better fit and slightly higher elasticities.
It is sometimes argued that standard state-of-practice logit-based models cannot forecast the demand for substantially reduced travel times, for instance due to High Speed Rail (HSR). The present paper investigates this issue by reviewing the literature on travel time elasticities for long distance rail travel and comparing these with elasticities observed when new HSR lines have opened. This paper also validates the Swedish long distance model, Sampers, and its forecast demand for a proposed new HSR, using aggregate data revealing how the air–rail modal split varies with the difference in generalized travel time between rail and air. The Sampers long distance model is also compared to a newly developed model applying Box–Cox transformations. The paper contributes to the empirical literature on long distance travel, long distance elasticities and HSR passenger demand forecasts. Results indicate that the Sampers model is indeed able to predict the demand for HSR reasonably well. The new non-linear model has even better model fit and also slightly higher elasticities.
► Cyclists’ value of time is estimated to 16€/h (street) and 11€/h (bike lane). ► This is almost twice as high as the value of time on respondents’ second-best mode. ► Only 17% of responding cyclists ...would go by car if they did not cycle. ► Most cyclists are aware of health benefits and take them into account when choosing mode.
We estimate the value of time savings, different cycling environments and additional benefits in cost–benefit analysis of cycling investments. Cyclists’ value of travel time savings turns out to be high, considerably higher than the value of time savings on alternative modes. Cyclists also value other improvements highly, such as separated bicycle lanes. As to additional benefits of cycling improvements in the form of health and reduced car traffic, our results do not support the notion that these will be a significant part in a cost–benefit analysis. Bicyclists seem to take health largely into account when making their travel choices, implying that it would be double-counting to add total health benefits to the analysis once the consumer surplus has been correctly calculated. As to reductions in car traffic, our results indicate that the cross-elasticity between car and cycle is low, and hence benefits from traffic reductions will be small. However, the valuations of improved cycling speeds and comfort are so high that it seems likely that improvements for cyclists are cost-effective compared to many other types of investments, without having to invoke second-order, indirect effects. In other words, our results suggest that bicycle should be viewed as a competitive mode of travel and not primarily as a means to achieve improved health or reduced car traffic.
We estimate the income and fuel price elasticities of private car vehicle kilometres travelled (VKT) using fixed effects on registry micro panel data covering all Swedish households from 1999 to ...2018. Such registry data, covering all individuals and cars in the country, are unique to Nordic countries and are comprehensive enough to allow fine segmentation of the population by both income groups and several municipality types. To address potential endogeneity arising if employees receive a wage compensation for long commutes, we apply the temporal changes in earned income tax credits as an instrumental variable. We find lower income and price elasticities (in absolute value) in the large cities, and larger elasticities in suburbs, other cities and in rural areas. We also find that the elasticities decrease with income, excluding the lowest income quartile, having the lowest elasticities. Specifically, we show theoretically and empirically that because the income elasticity varies considerably along the income distribution, the resulting income elasticity depends heavily on how the estimator assigns weight to different income groups, unless the specification explicitly allows for variation in the impact of income on VKT. Moreover, the impact of an income increase depends on to whom the income increase accrues to. For a uniform income increase, 0.2 is the preferred income elasticity. Our preferred long-run fuel price elasticity is −0.53. The short-run elasticities are lower. These elasticities apply to the full population and not only to car owners or drivers.
•The income and absolute fuel price elasticity decreases with income.•The income elasticity depends on how the income increase is distributed.•The absolute fuel price elasticity is lowest in large cities.
We analyse customer satisfaction surveys conducted among public transport passengers over 15 years in Stockholm. We analyze satisfaction and importance of many attributes and their temporal trends, ...focusing on attributes that stand out from the rest in some way, which is primarily crowding. Crowding is the attribute with the lowest satisfaction and the only attribute for which satisfaction declines over time. However, in spite of the low satisfaction, crowding is still less important for the total satisfaction than the cognitive attributes reliability and frequency (the most important attributes). Only when crowding levels reach high levels, like that of the most crowded bus services in central Stockholm, does crowding become as important as the cognitive attributes. Also the attribute reliability stands out – it is the most important attribute. For the attributes reliability and crowding, data allow us to compare satisfaction and importance with performance. We find that that satisfaction and importance are influenced by the performance level for both attributes.
•Study of satisfaction and inferred importance of quality attributes in PT.•Generally low satisfaction with crowding but only important in the worst case.•Women deem crowding less satisfying and more important than men.•Performance and satisfaction is correlated for crowding.
The Swedish congestion charges: Ten years on Börjesson, Maria; Kristoffersson, Ida
Transportation research. Part A, Policy and practice,
January 2018, 2018-01-00, 2018, Letnik:
107
Journal Article
Recenzirano
•The price elasticity was lower when the congestion charging levels were increased.•The price elasticity was also lower when the Stockholm system was extended.•The price elasticity is substantially ...higher in the off-peak period than in the peak.•Long-term price elasticity is declining in Gothenburg but increasing in Stockholm.•Public support has declined in Gothenburg and Stockholm in response charge increase.
Time-of-day dependent cordon-based congestion charging systems were introduced in Stockholm in 2006, and in Gothenburg in 2013. The Stockholm system was significantly extended in 2016, and the peak charge has been increased in the two cities. This paper analyses the effects of the first decade with the Swedish congestion charges, specifically effects of the system updates, and draws policy lessons for the years to come. Should we introduce congestion charges in more cities? Should we extend the systems that we have? We synthesize previous research findings and focus on the long-term effects that have varied over time including the recent years: the price elasticities on the traffic volume across the cordon, the revenue and system operating cost, the public and political support, and consequences for the transport planning process. We also explore the effects on peak and off-peak, and different types of traffic (trucks, company cars and private passenger cars), because of access to novel data that make this analysis possible. We find that the price elasticities have increased over time in Stockholm, but decreased in Gothenburg. We find that the public support increased in the two cities after their introduction until the systems were revised; since then, the public support has declined in both cities. We find that the price elasticity was substantially lower when the charging levels were increased, and when the Stockholm system was extended, than when the charges were first introduced, a likely reason being that the most price-sensitive traffic was already priced off-the road at the introduction.
The economics of electric roads Börjesson, Maria; Johansson, Magnus; Kågeson, Per
Transportation research. Part C, Emerging technologies,
04/2021, Letnik:
125
Journal Article
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•The social benefit of electric road is evaluated using the Swedish freight model.•E-roads on the national highway network cost-efficiently reduce emissions from heavy trucks.•E-roads have economies ...of scale and scope, so the market outcome is suboptimal.•If the user charge optimizes welfare, the revenue does not cover the investment cost.•If user charge optimizes profit, the revenue covers the costs if the network is large.
In this paper we present a method for evaluating social benefits of electric roads and apply it to the Swedish highway network. Together with estimated investments costs this can be used to produce a cost benefit analysis. An electric road is characterized by high economies of scale (high investment cost and low marginal cost) and considerable economies of scope (the benefit per kilometre electric road depends on the size of the network), implying that the market will produce a smaller network of electric roads, or charge higher prices for its use, than what is welfare optimal. For this reason, it is relevant for governments to consider investing in electric roads, making the cost-benefit analysis a key decision support. We model the behaviour of the carriers using the Swedish national freight model system, SAMGODS, determining the optimal shipment sizes and optimal transport chains, including mode and vehicle type. We find that if the user charge is set as to optimize social welfare, the revenue will not fully cover the investment cost of the electric road. If they are instead set to optimize profit, we find that the revenue will cover the costs if the electric road network is large enough. Electric roads appear to provide a cost-effective means to significantly reduce carbon emissions from heavy trucks. In a scenario where the expansion connects the three biggest cities in Sweden, emissions will be cut by one-third of the overall emissions from heavy trucks in Sweden. The main argument against a commitment to electric roads is that investment and maintenance costs are uncertain and that, in the long run, battery development or hydrogen fuel cells can reduce the benefit of such roads.
We study optimal degree of bus system electrification for Stockholm’s longest high-frequency bus line. We evaluate the welfare effects of opportunity and depot charging fleet configurations with ...batteries charged during dwell times at terminal stations or during the operating pause in the bus depot, respectively. Electric buses (e-buses) significantly reduce carbon and health damaging emissions of transit services. However, e-buses are presently not welfare improving, because their lower external costs do not offset the higher supply costs (e.g., capital cost of charging infrastructures and batteries). Instead, we find that optimising bus fares and frequencies and road pricing is more effective in improving social welfare and carbon emissions. E-buses significantly reduce surplus of bus operators, which thus are reluctant to adopt these technologies without direct public support. Sensitivity analysis shows that: (i) technological developments to substantially reduce capital costs can make e-buses perform well from a social welfare perspective; (ii) efficiency gains obtained in the operation of the service, e.g., by optimizing on-board conditioning systems, but also bus routing and driving style, can have a greater impact on the cost performance of e-bus fleet configurations than simply reducing capital costs. An argument for e-buses is the efforts in coordinating a transition to electrified vehicles, aiming at reducing the risk of futile investments in charging infrastructure.
The economics of low emission zones Börjesson, Maria; Bastian, Anne; Eliasson, Jonas
Transportation research. Part A, Policy and practice,
11/2021, Letnik:
153
Journal Article
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•Two microeconomic models deriving the social cost of light vehicle low emission zones.•The first model is based on user cost impacts of reduced traffic volumes.•The second derives the social cost ...from price changes on the used car market.•We apply the models to a proposed LEZ for light vehicles the Stockholm the inner city.•The benefit of air quality improvements is less than a tenth of the social cost.
This paper provides two microeconomic models that derive the social cost of a low emission zone (LEZ) for light vehicles. We apply the models to a proposed LEZ for light vehicles in Stockholm, which would prohibit diesel cars of Euro 5 or lower and gasoline cars of Euro 4 or lower in the inner city (25 km2) and conduct a cost-benefit analysis of the proposed LEZ. The first model is based on how an increase in user cost impacts traffic volumes in the inner city. This rather conventional user cost calculation of drivers’ loss requires however some strong assumptions. The second model shows that drivers’ losses can be calculated based on price changes observed on the used car market. Our empirical results indicate that the welfare loss resulting from the two models are of the same magnitude. The forecast benefits of the LEZ consist primarily of air quality improvements leading to health benefits. Even if our empirical results must be interpreted with caution, it seems clear that the costs considerably outweigh the benefits in this case study.
The impact of company cars on car ownership Börjesson, Maria; Roberts, Christopher
Transportation research. Part A, Policy and practice,
10/2023, Letnik:
176
Journal Article
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Amidst the current period of urgent and costly climate abatement policies being implemented, company cars as a fringe benefit receive surprisingly little attention from policy and research, despite ...evidence showing that they not only result in substantial welfare losses but also in increased car ownership and use. Therefore, this paper adds to the evidence on how company cars increase car use. We estimate how the possession of a company car impacts the households probability of possessing at least one car and the total car possession (the sum of privately owned and company cars). We use register micro-panel data, covering all households in Sweden, allowing us to study the effect of company cars in the full population while accounting for household-specific time-invariant unobserved preferences. It also allows us to study asymmetric effects of gaining versus losing a company car. We regress temporal changes in car possession on temporal changes in company car possession, applying a fixed effect (FE) estimator for single and couple households separately. A company car increases the probability of having at least one car in single and couple households by 38% and 14%, respectively. For couple households, we find a small asymmetric effect, such that the impact of the company car on car possession is slightly larger when the car is received than when it is lost. For single households the effect is symmetric. Moreover, a company car increases car possession by on average 0.26 cars for couple households possessing at least one car. Since roughly 80% of the mileage of these cars is attributed to private purposes in Sweden, these results indicate that the current company car taxation also increases car use.
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