The accumulation of strong earthquakes with resembling source mechanisms in the Romanian Vrancea zone, SE Carpathians, allows for designing a simple, cheep and robust earthquake early warning (EEW) ...system for Bucharest with leading times of about 25 s. A previously established scaling relation for EEW predicts in the range from 1–2 s a ten times higher ground motion amplitude in Bucharest than the maximum P‐wave acceleration measured in the epicentral area. Using additional weak and strong motion data, we find that ground shaking in Bucharest is generally overestimated by this relation by a factor of two. However, the predicted amplitudes are within the 95% confidence interval of our revised relation. Additional predictive laws for EEW are determined for different ground motion parameters. The application of our scaling relations to the October 27, 2004 Vrancea earthquake (Mw = 6.0) supports the feasibility of the approach for EEW in Romania.
Earthquake early warning (EEW) systems should provide reliable warnings as quickly as possible with a minimum number of false and missed alarms. Using the example of the megacity Istanbul and based ...on a set of simulated scenario earthquakes, we present a novel approach for evaluating and optimizing seismic networks for EEW, in particular in regions with a scarce number of instrumentally recorded earthquakes. We show that, while the current station locations of the existing Istanbul EEW system are well chosen, its performance can be enhanced by modifying the parameters governing the declaration of warnings. Furthermore, unless using ocean bottom seismometers or modifying the current EEW algorithm, additional stations might not lead to any significant performance increase.
Real-time applications such as earthquake early warning (EEW) typically use empirical ground-motion prediction equations (GMPEs) along with event magnitude and source-to-site distances to estimate ...expected shaking levels. In this simplified approach, effects due to finite-fault geometry, directivity and site and basin response are often generalized, which may lead to a significant under- or overestimation of shaking from large earthquakes (M > 6.5) in some locations. For enhanced site-specific ground-motion predictions considering 3-D wave-propagation effects, we develop support vector regression (SVR) models from the SCEC CyberShake low-frequency (<0.5 Hz) and broad-band (0–10 Hz) data sets. CyberShake encompasses 3-D wave-propagation simulations of >415 000 finite-fault rupture scenarios (6.5 ≤ M ≤ 8.5) for southern California defined in UCERF 2.0. We use CyberShake to demonstrate the application of synthetic waveform data to EEW as a ‘proof of concept’, being aware that these simulations are not yet fully validated and might not appropriately sample the range of rupture uncertainty. Our regression models predict the maximum and the temporal evolution of instrumental intensity (MMI) at 71 selected test sites using only the hypocentre, magnitude and rupture ratio, which characterizes uni- and bilateral rupture propagation. Our regression approach is completely data-driven (where here the CyberShake simulations are considered data) and does not enforce pre-defined functional forms or dependencies among input parameters. The models were established from a subset (∼20 per cent) of CyberShake simulations, but can explain MMI values of all >400 k rupture scenarios with a standard deviation of about 0.4 intensity units. We apply our models to determine threshold magnitudes (and warning times) for various active faults in southern California that earthquakes need to exceed to cause at least ‘moderate’, ‘strong’ or ‘very strong’ shaking in the Los Angeles (LA) basin. These thresholds are used to construct a simple and robust EEW algorithm: to declare a warning, the algorithm only needs to locate the earthquake and to verify that the corresponding magnitude threshold is exceeded. The models predict that a relatively moderate M6.5–7 earthquake along the Palos Verdes, Newport-Inglewood/Rose Canyon, Elsinore or San Jacinto faults with a rupture propagating towards LA could cause ‘very strong’ to ‘severe’ shaking in the LA basin; however, warning times for these events could exceed 30 s.
The InSight mission (Interior Exploration using Seismic Investigations, Geodesy and Heat Transport) has been collecting high-quality seismic data from Mars since February 2019, shortly after its ...landing. The Marsquake Service (MQS) is the team responsible for the prompt review of all seismic data recorded by the InSight's seismometer (SEIS), marsquake event detection, and curating seismicity catalogues. Until sol 1011 (end of September 2021), MQS have identified 951 marsquakes that we interpret to occur at regional and teleseismic distances, and 1062 very short duration events that are most likely generated by local thermal stresses nearby the SEIS package. Here, we summarize the seismic data collected until sol 1011, version 9 of the InSight seismicity catalogue. We focus on the significant seismicity that occurred after sol 478, the end date of version 3, the last catalogue described in a dedicated paper. In this new period, almost a full Martian year of new data has been collected, allowing us to observe seasonal variations in seismicity that are largely driven by strong changes in atmospheric noise that couples into the seismic signal. Further, the largest, closest and most distant events have been identified, and the number of fully located events has increased from 3 to 7. In addition to the new seismicity, we document improvements in the catalogue that include the adoption of InSight-calibrated Martian models and magnitude scales, the inclusion of additional seismic body-wave phases, and first focal mechanism solutions for three of the regional marsquakes at distances ∼30°.
This report summarizes the seismicity in Switzerland and surrounding regions in the years 2017 and 2018. In 2017 and 2018, the Swiss Seismological Service detected and located 1227 and 955 ...earthquakes in the region under consideration, respectively. The strongest event in the analysed period was the M
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4.6 Urnerboden earthquake, which occurred in the border region of cantons Uri, Glarus and Schwyz on March 6, 2017. The event was the strongest earthquake within Switzerland since the M
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5.0 Vaz earthquake of 1991. Associated ground motions indicating intensity IV were reported in a radius up to about 50 km and locally approached intensity VI in the region close to the epicentre. Derived focal mechanisms and relative hypocentre relocations of the immediate aftershocks image a NNW–SSE striking sinistral strike-slip fault. Together with other past events in this region, the Urnerboden earthquake suggests the existence of a system of sub-parallel strike-slip faults, likely within in the uppermost crystalline basement of the eastern Aar Massif. A vigorous earthquake sequence occurred close to Château-d'Oex in the Préalpes-Romandes region in western Switzerland. With a magnitude of M
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4.3, the strongest earthquake of the sequence occurred on July 1, 2017. Focal mechanism and relative relocations of fore- and aftershocks image a NNE dipping normal fault in about 4 km depth. Two similarly oriented shallow normal-fault events occurred between subalpine Molasse and Préalpes units close to Châtel-St-Denis and St. Silvester in 2017/18. Together, these events indicate a domain of NE–SW oriented extensional to transtensional deformation along the Alpine Front between Lake Geneva in the west and the Fribourg Fault in the east. The structural complexity of the Fribourg Fault is revealed by an M
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2.9 earthquake near Tafers in 2018. The event images a NW–SE striking fault segment within the crystalline basement, which might be related to the Fribourg Fault Zone. Finally, the M
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2.8 Grenchen earthquake of 2017 provides a rare example of shallow thrust faulting along the Jura fold-and-thrust belt, indicating contraction in the northwestern Alpine foreland of Switzerland.
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