The risk of severe COVID-19 if an individual becomes infected is known to be higher in older individuals and those with underlying health conditions. Understanding the number of individuals at ...increased risk of severe COVID-19 and how this varies between countries should inform the design of possible strategies to shield or vaccinate those at highest risk.
We estimated the number of individuals at increased risk of severe disease (defined as those with at least one condition listed as “at increased risk of severe COVID-19” in current guidelines) by age (5-year age groups), sex, and country for 188 countries using prevalence data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 and UN population estimates for 2020. The list of underlying conditions relevant to COVID-19 was determined by mapping the conditions listed in GBD 2017 to those listed in guidelines published by WHO and public health agencies in the UK and the USA. We analysed data from two large multimorbidity studies to determine appropriate adjustment factors for clustering and multimorbidity. To help interpretation of the degree of risk among those at increased risk, we also estimated the number of individuals at high risk (defined as those that would require hospital admission if infected) using age-specific infection–hospitalisation ratios for COVID-19 estimated for mainland China and making adjustments to reflect country-specific differences in the prevalence of underlying conditions and frailty. We assumed males were twice at likely as females to be at high risk. We also calculated the number of individuals without an underlying condition that could be considered at increased risk because of their age, using minimum ages from 50 to 70 years. We generated uncertainty intervals (UIs) for our estimates by running low and high scenarios using the lower and upper 95% confidence limits for country population size, disease prevalences, multimorbidity fractions, and infection–hospitalisation ratios, and plausible low and high estimates for the degree of clustering, informed by multimorbidity studies.
We estimated that 1·7 billion (UI 1·0–2·4) people, comprising 22% (UI 15–28) of the global population, have at least one underlying condition that puts them at increased risk of severe COVID-19 if infected (ranging from <5% of those younger than 20 years to >66% of those aged 70 years or older). We estimated that 349 million (186–787) people (4% 3–9 of the global population) are at high risk of severe COVID-19 and would require hospital admission if infected (ranging from <1% of those younger than 20 years to approximately 20% of those aged 70 years or older). We estimated 6% (3–12) of males to be at high risk compared with 3% (2–7) of females. The share of the population at increased risk was highest in countries with older populations, African countries with high HIV/AIDS prevalence, and small island nations with high diabetes prevalence. Estimates of the number of individuals at increased risk were most sensitive to the prevalence of chronic kidney disease, diabetes, cardiovascular disease, and chronic respiratory disease.
About one in five individuals worldwide could be at increased risk of severe COVID-19, should they become infected, due to underlying health conditions, but this risk varies considerably by age. Our estimates are uncertain, and focus on underlying conditions rather than other risk factors such as ethnicity, socioeconomic deprivation, and obesity, but provide a starting point for considering the number of individuals that might need to be shielded or vaccinated as the global pandemic unfolds.
UK Department for International Development, Wellcome Trust, Health Data Research UK, Medical Research Council, and National Institute for Health Research.
Atrial fibrillation (AF) represents a growing public health burden. It is a complex condition, involving a number of etiologic factors and arrhythmia mechanisms associated with atrial remodeling. ...Greater understanding of these mechanisms may improve therapy. Current AF classification schemes are limited by simplicity. A number of risk factors predict AF onset, and additional factors are being evaluated in registry studies. Doppler imaging and Holter monitoring in high-risk patients to predict the onset of AF and progression from paroxysmal to permanent AF are promising. There is a need for a novel multifactorial classification model encompassing AF duration, symptoms, markers of atrial remodeling, and a risk score for AF onset, persistence, progression, and complications to guide treatment and prognostication. Preventing AF onset with upstream therapy is of great interest, but current data are conflicting. More study is needed to optimize rhythm control with antiarrhythmic drugs and targeted ablation to specific patient populations at an earlier stage. There is little consensus on optimal rate control and no information relating to optimum rate control in specific populations. This article highlights new concepts in AF and directions for future research.
Abstract Background Patients with nonvalvular atrial fibrillation are often denied oral anticoagulation due to falls risk. The latter is variably defined, and existing studies have not compared the ...associated risk of bleeding with other cardiovascular events. There are no data about outcomes in individuals with nonvalvular atrial fibrillation with a prior history of (actual) falls, rather than being “at risk of falls.” Our objective was to evaluate the risk of cardiovascular outcomes associated with prior history of falls in patients with atrial fibrillation in a contemporary “real world” cohort. Methods Patients with nonvalvular atrial fibrillation in a 4-hospital institution between 2000 and 2010 were included. Stroke/thromboembolism event rates were calculated according to prior history of falls. Risk factors were investigated by Cox regression. Results Among 7156 atrial fibrillation patients, prior history of falls/trauma was uncommon (n = 76; 1.1%). Compared with patients without history of falls, those patients were older and less likely to be on oral anticoagulation; they also had higher risk scores for stroke/thromboembolism but not for bleeding. Compared with no prior history of falls, rates of stroke/thromboembolism ( P = .01) and all-cause mortality ( P < .0001) were significantly higher in patients with previous falls. In multivariable analyses, prior history of falls was independently associated with stroke/thromboembolism (hazard ratio HR 5.19; 95% confidence interval CI, 2.1-12.6; P < .0001), major bleeding (HR 3.32 1.23-8.91; P = .02), and all-cause mortality (HR 3.69; 95% CI, 1.52-8.95; P = .04), but not hemorrhagic stroke (HR 4.20; 95% CI, 0.58-30.48; P = .16) in patients on oral anticoagulation. Conclusion In this large “real world” atrial fibrillation cohort, prior history of falls was uncommon but independently increased risk of stroke/thromboembolism, bleeding, and mortality, but not hemorrhagic stroke in the presence of anticoagulation. Prior history of (actual) falls may be a more clinically useful risk prognosticator than “being at risk of falls.”
Background Atrial fibrillation (AF) is more likely to develop in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) than in individuals with normal renal function, and patients with CKD are more likely to ...suffer ischemic stroke (IS)/thromboembolism (TE). To our knowledge, no prior study has considered the impact of estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) on bleeding. We investigated the relationship of eGFR to IS/TE, mortality, and bleeding in an AF population unrestricted by age or comorbidity. Methods Patients with nonvalvular AF (NVAF) were stratified into five categories according to eGFR (≥ 90, 60-89, 30-59, 15-29, and < 15 mL/min/1.73 m2 ), analyzing risk factors, all-cause mortality, bleeding, and IS/TE. Of 8, 962 eligible individuals, 5, 912 had NVAF and available serum creatinine data, with 14, 499 patient-years of follow-up. Results The incidence rates of IS/TE were 7.4 and 7.2 per 1, 000 person-years in individuals not receiving and receiving anticoagulation therapy, respectively. Rates of all-cause mortality were 13.4 and 9.4 per 1, 000 person-years, respectively, and of major bleeding, 6.2 and 9.0 per 1, 000 person-years, respectively. Rates increased with decreasing eGFR, with IS/TE rates being lower in individuals receiving oral anticoagulation (OAC) therapy. eGFR was not an independent predictor of IS/TE on multivariate analyses. When the benefit of IS reduction is balanced against the increased risk of hemorrhagic stroke, the net clinical benefit (NCB) was clearly positive in favor of OAC use. Conclusions Incidence rates of IS/TE, mortality, and bleeding increased with reducing eGFR across the whole range of renal function. OAC use was associated with a lower incidence of IS/TE and mortality at 1 year compared with individuals not receiving anticoagulants in all categories of renal function as measured by eGFR. The NCB balancing IS against serious bleeding was positive in favor of OAC use among patients with renal impairment.
Objectives This study sought to determine the risk of ischemic stroke (IS)/thromboembolism (TE) associated with renal impairment and its incremental predictive value over established risk ...stratification scores (congestive heart failure, hypertension, age ≥75 years, diabetes, previous stroke CHADS2 and congestive heart failure, hypertension, age ≥75 years, diabetes, previous stroke, vascular disease, age 65 to 74 years, sex category (female) CHA2 DS2 -VASc) in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF). Background Risk stratification schemes for prediction of IS/TE in patients with AF are validated but do not include renal impairment. Methods Patients diagnosed with nonvalvular AF and available estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) data in a 4-hospital institution between 2000 and 2010 were identified. The study population was stratified by renal impairment defined by serum creatinine level and by eGFR measured at time of diagnosis of AF. Independent risk factors of IS/TE (including renal impairment) were investigated in Cox regression models. The incremental predictive value of renal impairment over CHADS2 and CHA2 DS2 -VASc were assessed with the c-statistic, net reclassification improvement, and integrated discrimination improvement. We focused on the 1-year outcomes in our analyses. Results Of 8,962 eligible individuals, 5,912 (66%) had nonvalvular AF and available eGFR data. Renal impairment by both creatinine and eGFR definitions was associated with higher rates of IS/TE at 1 year, compared with normal renal function. After adjustment for CHADS2 risk factors, renal impairment did not significantly increase the risk of IS/TE at 1 year (hazard ratio: 1.06; 95% confidence interval CI: 0.75 to 1.49 for renal impairment; and hazard ratio: 1.09; 95% CI: 0.84 to 1.41 for eGFR). When renal impairment was added to existing risk scoring systems for stroke/TE (CHADS2 and CHA2 DS2 -VASc), it did not independently add to the predictive value of the scores, whether defined by serum creatinine level or eGFR. This was evident even when the analysis was confined to only those patients with at least 1 year of follow-up. Conclusions Renal impairment was not an independent predictor of IS/TE in patients with AF and did not significantly improve the predictive ability of the CHADS2 or CHA2 DS2 -VASc scores.
Epidemiologic studies suggest that Black, Asian, and minority ethnic (BAME) patients may be at risk of worse outcomes from coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19), but the pathophysiological drivers for ...this association are unknown. This study sought to investigate the relationship between findings on echocardiography, mortality, and race in COVID-19 pneumonia.
This was a multicentre, retrospective, observational study including 164 adults (aged 61 ± 13 years; 78% male; 36% BAME) hospitalized with COVID-19 undergoing echocardiography between March 16 and May 9, 2020 at 3 days (interquartile range 2-5) from admission. The primary outcome was all-cause mortality.
After a median follow-up of 31 days (interquartile range 14-42 days), 66 (40%) patients had died. The right ventricle was dilated in 62 (38%) patients, and 58 (35%) patients had right ventricular (RV) systolic dysfunction. Only 2 (1%) patients had left ventricular (LV) dilatation, and 133 (81%) had normal or hyperdynamic LV systolic function. Reduced tricuspid annulus planar systolic excursion was associated with elevated D-dimer (ρ = −0.18, P = 0.025) and high-sensitivity cardiac Troponin (ρ = −0.30, P < 0.0001). Reduced RV systolic function (hazard ratio 1.80; 95% confidence interval, 1.05-3.09; P = 0.032) was an independent predictor of all-cause mortality after adjustment for demographic and clinical risk factors. Comparing white and BAME individuals, there were no differences in echocardiography findings, biomarkers, or mortality.
In patients hospitalized with COVID-19 pneumonia, reduced RV systolic function is prevalent and associated with all-cause mortality. There is, however, no racial variation in the early findings on echocardiography, biomarkers, or mortality.
Des études épidémiologiques suggèrent que les patients noirs, asiatiques et appartenant à des minorités ethniques (BAME) auraient un risque accru d'aggravation de la maladie à coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19), mais les facteurs physiopathologiques de cette association sont inconnus. Cette étude a cherché à étudier la relation entre les données d'échocardiographie, de mortalité, de l’origine ethnique avec la pneumonie associée à la COVID-19.
Il s'agit d'une étude observationnelle rétrospective multicentrique portant sur 164 adultes (âgés de 61 ± 13 ans; 78 % d'hommes; 36 % de BAME) hospitalisés pour la COVID-19 et soumis à une échocardiographie entre le 16 mars et le 9 mai 2020, trois jours (écart interquartile 2-5) après leur admission. Le critère principal d’évaluation était la mortalité, toutes causes confondues.
Après un suivi médian de 31 jours (intervalle interquartile 14-42 jours), 66 (40 %) patients sont décédés. Le ventricule droit était dilaté chez 62 (38 %) des patients, et 58 (35 %) patients présentaient une dysfonction systolique du ventricule droit (VD). Seuls deux (1 %) patients présentaient une dilatation du ventricule gauche (VG), et 133 (81 %) avaient une fonction systolique VG normale ou en état hyperdynamique. Une réduction du déplacement systolique de l’anneau tricuspide a été associée à un taux de D-dimère élevé (ρ = -0,18, P = 0,025) et à une Troponine cardiaque de haute sensibilité (ρ = -0,30, P < 0,0001). Une fonction systolique VD réduite (rapport de risque de 1,80; intervalle de confiance à 95 %, 1,05-3,09 ; P = 0,032) était un facteur prédicteur indépendant pour la mortalité, toutes causes confondues, après ajustement pour les facteurs de risque démographiques et cliniques. En comparant les individus blancs et BAME, aucune différence n'a été constatée concernant les résultats d'échocardiographie, les biomarqueurs ou la mortalité.
Chez les patients hospitalisés pour une pneumonie liée à la COVID-19, une réduction de la fonction systolique VD est apparue comme prévalente et associée à la mortalité, toutes causes confondues. Il n'y a cependant aucune influence de l’ethnicité en rapport avec les premiers résultats d'échocardiographie, des biomarqueurs ou de la mortalité.
PDF
