Summary
Binary similarity indices are widely used in ecology, for example for detecting associations between species occurrence patterns, comparing regional and temporal species assemblages, and ...assessing beta diversity patterns, including spatial and temporal species loss and turnover. Such indices have widespread applications in biogeography, global change biology and biodiversity conservation.
Similarity indices are commonly calculated upon binary presence/absence (or sometimes modelled suitable/unsuitable) data, which are generally incomplete and more categorical than their underlying natural patterns. Probable false absences are disregarded, amplifying the effects of data deficiencies and the scale dependence of the results.
Fuzzy occurrence data, with a degree of uncertainty attributed to localities where presence or absence cannot be safely assigned, could better reflect species distributions, compensating for incomplete knowledge and methodological errors. Similarity indices would therefore also benefit from accommodating such fuzzy data directly.
This study proposes fuzzy versions of the binary similarity indices most commonly used in ecology, so that they can be directly applied to continuous (fuzzy) rather than binary occurrence values, thus producing more realistic similarity assessments. Fuzzy occurrence can be obtained with several methods, some of which are also provided. The procedure is robust to data source disparities, gaps or other errors in species occurrence records, even for restricted species for which slight inaccuracies can affect substantial parts of their range.
The method is implemented in a free and open‐source software package, fuzzySim, which is available for the r statistical software and under implementation for the QGIS geographic information system. It is provided with sample data and an illustrated tutorial suitable for non‐experienced users.
Demand for models in biodiversity assessments is rising, but which models are adequate for the task? We propose a set of best-practice standards and detailed guidelines enabling scoring of studies ...based on species distribution models for use in biodiversity assessments. We reviewed and scored 400 modeling studies over the past 20 years using the proposed standards and guidelines. We detected low model adequacy overall, but with a marked tendency of improvement over time in model building and, to a lesser degree, in biological data and model evaluation. We argue that implementation of agreed-upon standards for models in biodiversity assessments would promote transparency and repeatability, eventually leading to higher quality of the models and the inferences used in assessments. We encourage broad community participation toward the expansion and ongoing development of the proposed standards and guidelines.
Species distributions are typically represented by records of their observed occurrence at a given spatial and temporal scale. Such records are inevitably incomplete and contingent on the ...spatial–temporal circumstances under which the observations were made. Moreover, organisms may respond differently to similar environmental conditions at different places or moments, so their distribution is, in principle, not completely predictable. We argue that this uncertainty exists, and warrants considering species distributions as analogous to coherent quantum objects, whose distributions are better described by a wavefunction rather than by a set of locations. We use this to extend the existing concept of "dark diversity", which incorporates into biodiversity metrics those species that could, but which have not yet been observed to, inhabit a region—thereby developing the idea of "potential biodiversity". We show how conceptualizing species' distributions in this way could help overcome important weaknesses in current biodiversity metrics, both in theory and by using a worked case study of mammal distributions in Spain over the last decade. We propose that considerable theoretical advances could eventually be gained through interdisciplinary collaboration between biogeographers and quantum physicists.
Models based on species distributions are widely used and serve important purposes in ecology, biogeography and conservation. Their continuous predictions of environmental suitability are commonly ...converted into a binary classification of predicted (or potential) presences and absences, whose accuracy is then evaluated through a number of measures that have been the subject of recent reviews. We propose four additional measures that analyse observation-prediction mismatch from a different angle – namely, from the perspective of the predicted rather than the observed area – and add to the existing toolset of model evaluation methods. We explain how these measures can complete the view provided by the existing measures, allowing further insights into distribution model predictions. We also describe how they can be particularly useful when using models to forecast the spread of diseases or of invasive species and to predict modifications in species' distributions under climate and land-use change.
Common mistakes in ecological niche models Sillero, Neftalí; Barbosa, A. Márcia
International journal of geographical information science : IJGIS,
02/2021, Letnik:
35, Številka:
2
Journal Article
Recenzirano
Odprti dostop
Ecological niche models (ENMs) are widely used statistical methods to estimate various types of species niches. After lecturing several editions of introductory courses on ENMs and reviewing numerous ...manuscripts on this subject, we frequently faced some recurrent mistakes: 1) presence-background modelling methods, such as Maxent or ENFA, are used as if they were pseudo-absence methods; 2) spatial autocorrelation is confused with clustering of species records; 3) environmental variables are used with a higher spatial resolution than species records; 4) correlations between variables are not taken into account; 5) machine-learning models are not replicated; 6) topographical variables are calculated from unprojected coordinate systems, and; 7) environmental variables are downscaled by resampling. Some of these mistakes correspond to student misunderstandings and are corrected before publication. However, other errors can be found in published papers. We explain here why these approaches are erroneous and we propose ways to improve them.
Predictive models are central to many scientific disciplines and vital for informing management in a rapidly changing world. However, limited understanding of the accuracy and precision of models ...transferred to novel conditions (their ‘transferability’) undermines confidence in their predictions. Here, 50 experts identified priority knowledge gaps which, if filled, will most improve model transfers. These are summarized into six technical and six fundamental challenges, which underlie the combined need to intensify research on the determinants of ecological predictability, including species traits and data quality, and develop best practices for transferring models. Of high importance is the identification of a widely applicable set of transferability metrics, with appropriate tools to quantify the sources and impacts of prediction uncertainty under novel conditions.
Models transferred to novel conditions could provide predictions in data-poor scenarios, contributing to more informed management decisions.
The determinants of ecological predictability are, however, still insufficiently understood.
Predictions from transferred ecological models are affected by species’ traits, sampling biases, biotic interactions, nonstationarity, and the degree of environmental dissimilarity between reference and target systems.
We synthesize six technical and six fundamental challenges that, if resolved, will catalyze practical and conceptual advances in model transfers.
We propose that the most immediate obstacle to improving understanding lies in the absence of a widely applicable set of metrics for assessing transferability, and that encouraging the development of models grounded in well-established mechanisms offers the most immediate way of improving transferability.
Global biodiversity patterns are often driven by different environmental variables at different scales. However, it is still controversial whether there are general trends, whether similar processes ...are responsible for similar patterns, and/or whether confounding effects such as sampling bias can produce misleading results. Our aim is twofold: 1) assessing the global correlates of diversity in a group of microscopic animals little analysed so far, and 2) inferring the influence of sampling intensity on biodiversity analyses. As a case study, we choose rotifers, because of their high potential for dispersal across the globe. We assembled and analysed a new worldwide dataset of records of monogonont rotifers, a group of microscopic aquatic animals, from 1960 to 1992. Using spatially explicit models, we assessed whether the diversity patterns conformed to those commonly obtained for larger organisms, and whether they still held true after controlling for sampling intensity, variations in area, and spatial structure in the data. Our results are in part analogous to those commonly obtained for macroorganisms (habitat heterogeneity and precipitation emerge as the main global correlates), but show some divergence (potential absence of a latitudinal gradient and of a large-scale correlation with human population). Moreover, the effect of sampling effort is remarkable, accounting for >50% of the variability; this strong effect may mask other patterns such as latitudinal gradients. Our study points out that sampling bias should be carefully considered when drawing conclusions from large-scale analyses, and calls for further faunistic work on microorganisms in all regions of the world to better understand the generality of the processes driving global patterns in biodiversity.
Although locating wildlife roadkill hotspots is essential to mitigate road impacts, the influence of study design on hotspot identification remains uncertain. We evaluated how sampling frequency ...affects the accuracy of hotspot identification, using a dataset of vertebrate roadkills (n = 4427) recorded over a year of daily surveys along 37 km of roads. “True” hotspots were identified using this baseline dataset, as the 500-m segments where the number of road-killed vertebrates exceeded the upper 95% confidence limit of the mean, assuming a Poisson distribution of road-kills per segment. “Estimated” hotspots were identified likewise, using datasets representing progressively lower sampling frequencies, which were produced by extracting data from the baseline dataset at appropriate time intervals (1–30 days). Overall, 24.3% of segments were “true” hotspots, concentrating 40.4% of roadkills. For different groups, “true” hotspots accounted from 6.8% (bats) to 29.7% (small birds) of road segments, concentrating from <40% (frogs and toads, snakes) to >60% (lizards, lagomorphs, carnivores) of roadkills. Spatial congruence between “true” and “estimated” hotspots declined rapidly with increasing time interval between surveys, due primarily to increasing false negatives (i.e., missing “true” hotspots). There were also false positives (i.e., wrong “estimated” hotspots), particularly at low sampling frequencies. Spatial accuracy decay with increasing time interval between surveys was higher for smaller-bodied (amphibians, reptiles, small birds, small mammals) than for larger-bodied species (birds of prey, hedgehogs, lagomorphs, carnivores). Results suggest that widely used surveys at weekly or longer intervals may produce poor estimates of roadkill hotspots, particularly for small-bodied species. Surveying daily or at two-day intervals may be required to achieve high accuracy in hotspot identification for multiple species.
•Sampling frequency strongly affects roadkill hotspot identification.•Hotspot spatial accuracy declines rapidly with increasing interval between surveys.•Missing true hotspots is the main source of error.•Hotspot accuracy is lower for small-bodied species.•Widely used study designs may provide inaccurate hotspots.
Wildlife roadkill hotspots are frequently used to identify priority locations for implementing mitigation measures. However, understanding the landscape-context and the spatial and temporal dynamics ...of these hotspots is challenging. Here, we investigate the factors that drive the spatiotemporal variation of bat mortality hotspots on roads along three years. We hypothesize that hotspot locations occur where bat activity is higher and that this activity is related to vegetation density and productivity, probably because this is associated with food availability. Statistically significant clusters of bat-vehicle collisions for each year were identified using the Kernel Density Estimation (KDE) approach. Additionally, we used a spatiotemporal analysis and generalized linear mixed models to evaluate the effect of local spatiotemporal variation of environmental indices and bat activity to predict the variation on roadkill hotspot locations and to asses hotspot strength over time. Between 2009 and 2011 we conducted daily surveys of bat casualties along a 51-km-long transect that incorporates different types of roads in southern Portugal. We found 509 casualties and we identified 86 statistically significant roadkill hotspots, which comprised 12% of the road network length and contained 61% of the casualties. Hotspots tended to be located in areas with higher accumulation of vegetation productivity along the three-year period, high bat activity and low temperature. Furthermore, we found that only 17% of the road network length was consistently classified as hotspots across all years; while 43% of hotspots vanished in consecutive years and 40% of new road segments were classified as hotspots. Thus, non-persistent hotspots were the most frequent category. Spatiotemporal changes in hotspot location are associated with decreasing vegetation production and increasing water stress on road surroundings. This supports our hypothesis that a decline on overall vegetation productivity and increase of roadside water deficit, and the presumed lower abundance of prey, have a significant effect on the decrease of bat roadkills. To our knowledge, this is the first study demonstrating that freely available remote sensing data can be a powerful tool to quantify bat roadkill risk and assess its spatiotemporal dynamics.
•Bat roadkill hotspot locations may shift along time.•Stable hotspots accounted only for 3% of road length, but for 27% of roadkilled bats.•Spatiotemporal congruence of hotspots declined with decreasing vegetation productivity.•Water stress on roadsides decrease the persistence of bat roadkill hotspots.•Remote sensing information may be a tool for planners to minimize the impact of roads.
Aim: When faced with dichotomous events, such as the presence or absence of a species, discrimination capacity (the ability to separate the instances of presence from the instances of absence) is ...usually the only characteristic that is assessed in the evaluation of the performance of predictive models. Although neglected, calibration or reliability (how well the estimated probability of presence represents the observed proportion of presences) is another aspect of the performance of predictive models that provides important information. In this study, we explore how changes in the distribution of the probability of presence make discrimination capacity a context-dependent characteristic of models. For the first time, we explain the implications that ignoring the context dependence of discrimination can have in the interpretation of species distribution models. Innovation: In this paper we corroborate that, under a uniform distribution of the estimated probability of presence, a well-calibrated model will not attain high discrimination power and the value of the area under the curve will be 0.83. Under non-uniform distributions of the probability of presence, simulations show that a well-calibrated model can attain a broad range of discrimination values. These results illustrate that discrimination is a context-dependent property, i.e. it gives information about the performance of a certain algorithm in a certain data population. Main conclusions: In species distribution modelling, the discrimination capacity of a model is only meaningful for a certain species in a given geographic area and temporal snapshot. This is because the representativeness of the environmental domain changes with the geographical and temporal context, which unavoidably entails changes in the distribution of the probability of presence. Comparative studies that intend to generalize their results only based on the discrimination capacity of models may not be broadly extrapolated. Assessment of calibration is especially recommended when the models are intended to be transferred in time or space.
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