Viral immune evasion by sequence variation is a major hindrance to HIV-1 vaccine design. To address this challenge, our group has developed a computational model, rooted in physics, that aims to ...predict the fitness landscape of HIV-1 proteins in order to design vaccine immunogens that lead to impaired viral fitness, thus blocking viable escape routes. Here, we advance the computational models to address previous limitations, and directly test model predictions against in vitro fitness measurements of HIV-1 strains containing multiple Gag mutations. We incorporated regularization into the model fitting procedure to address finite sampling. Further, we developed a model that accounts for the specific identity of mutant amino acids (Potts model), generalizing our previous approach (Ising model) that is unable to distinguish between different mutant amino acids. Gag mutation combinations (17 pairs, 1 triple and 25 single mutations within these) predicted to be either harmful to HIV-1 viability or fitness-neutral were introduced into HIV-1 NL4-3 by site-directed mutagenesis and replication capacities of these mutants were assayed in vitro. The predicted and measured fitness of the corresponding mutants for the original Ising model (r = -0.74, p = 3.6×10-6) are strongly correlated, and this was further strengthened in the regularized Ising model (r = -0.83, p = 3.7×10-12). Performance of the Potts model (r = -0.73, p = 9.7×10-9) was similar to that of the Ising model, indicating that the binary approximation is sufficient for capturing fitness effects of common mutants at sites of low amino acid diversity. However, we show that the Potts model is expected to improve predictive power for more variable proteins. Overall, our results support the ability of the computational models to robustly predict the relative fitness of mutant viral strains, and indicate the potential value of this approach for understanding viral immune evasion, and harnessing this knowledge for immunogen design.
Abstract
In evolving populations where the rate of beneficial mutations is large, subpopulations of individuals with competing beneficial mutations can be maintained over long times. Evolution with ...this kind of clonal structure is commonly observed in a wide range of microbial and viral populations. However, it can be difficult to completely resolve clonal dynamics in data. This is due to limited read lengths in high-throughput sequencing methods, which are often insufficient to directly measure linkage disequilibrium or determine clonal structure. Here, we develop a method to infer clonal structure using correlated allele frequency changes in time-series sequence data. Simulations show that our method recovers true, underlying clonal structures when they are known and accurately estimate linkage disequilibrium. This information can then be combined with other inference methods to improve estimates of the fitness effects of individual mutations. Applications to data suggest novel clonal structures in an E. coli long-term evolution experiment, and yield improved predictions of the effects of mutations on bacterial fitness and antibiotic resistance. Moreover, our method is computationally efficient, requiring orders of magnitude less run time for large data sets than existing methods. Overall, our method provides a powerful tool to infer clonal structures from data sets where only allele frequencies are available, which can also improve downstream analyses.
Genetic sequences collected over time provide an exciting opportunity to study natural selection. In such studies, it is important to account for linkage disequilibrium to accurately measure ...selection and to distinguish between selection and other effects that can cause changes in allele frequencies, such as genetic hitchhiking or clonal interference. However, most high-throughput sequencing methods cannot directly measure linkage due to short-read lengths. Here we develop a simple method to estimate linkage disequilibrium from time-series allele frequencies. This reconstructed linkage information can then be combined with other inference methods to infer the fitness effects of individual mutations. Simulations show that our approach reliably outperforms inference that ignores linkage disequilibrium and, with sufficient sampling, performs similarly to inference using the true linkage information. We also introduce two regularization methods derived from random matrix theory that help to preserve its performance under limited sampling effects. Overall, our method enables the use of linkage-aware inference methods even for data sets where only allele frequency time series are available.
HIV-1 envelope glycoprotein (Env) glycosylation is important because individual glycans are components of multiple broadly neutralizing antibody epitopes, while shielding other sites that might ...otherwise be immunogenic. The glycosylation on Env is influenced by a variety of factors, including the genotype of the protein, the cell line used for its expression, and the details of the construct design. Here, we used a mass spectrometry (MS)-based approach to map the complete glycosylation profile at every site in multiple HIV-1 Env trimers, accomplishing two goals. (i) We determined which glycosylation sites contain conserved glycan profiles across many trimeric Envs. (ii) We identified the variables that impact Env's glycosylation profile at sites with divergent glycosylation. Over half of the gp120 glycosylation sites on 11 different trimeric Envs have a conserved glycan profile, indicating that a native consensus glycosylation profile does indeed exist among trimers. We showed that some soluble gp120s and gp140s exhibit highly divergent glycosylation profiles compared to trimeric Env. We also assessed the impact of several variables on Env glycosylation: truncating the full-length Env; producing Env, instead of the more virologically relevant T lymphocytes, in CHO cells; and purifying Env with different chromatographic platforms, including nickel-nitrilotriacetic acid (Ni-NTA), 2G12, and PGT151 affinity. This report provides the first consensus glycosylation profile of Env trimers, which should serve as a useful benchmark for HIV-1 vaccine developers. This report also defines the sites where glycosylation may be impacted when Env trimers are truncated or produced in CHO cells.
A protective HIV-1 vaccine will likely include a recombinant version of the viral envelope glycoprotein (Env). Env is highly glycosylated, and yet vaccine developers have lacked guidance on how to assess whether their immunogens have optimal glycosylation. The following important questions are still unanswered. (i) What is the "target" glycosylation profile, when the goal is to generate a natively glycosylated protein? (ii) What variables exert the greatest influence on Env glycosylation? We identified numerous sites on Env where the glycosylation profile does not deviate in 11 different Env trimers, and we investigated the impact on the divergent glycosylation profiles of changing the genotype of the Env sequence, the construct design, the purification method, and the producer cell type. The data presented here give vaccine developers a "glycosylation target" for their immunogens, and they show how protein production variables can impact Env glycosylation.
Drug-resistant mutations often have deleterious impacts on replication fitness, posing a fitness cost that can only be overcome by compensatory mutations. However, the role of fitness cost in the ...evolution of drug resistance has often been overlooked in clinical studies or in vitro selection experiments, as these observations only capture the outcome of drug selection. In this study, we systematically profile the fitness landscape of resistance-associated sites in HIV-1 protease using deep mutational scanning. We construct a mutant library covering combinations of mutations at 11 sites in HIV-1 protease, all of which are associated with resistance to protease inhibitors in clinic. Using deep sequencing, we quantify the fitness of thousands of HIV-1 protease mutants after multiple cycles of replication in human T cells. Although the majority of resistance-associated mutations have deleterious effects on viral replication, we find that epistasis among resistance-associated mutations is predominantly positive. Furthermore, our fitness data are consistent with genetic interactions inferred directly from HIV sequence data of patients. Fitness valleys formed by strong positive epistasis reduce the likelihood of reversal of drug resistance mutations. Overall, our results support the view that strong compensatory effects are involved in the emergence of clinically observed resistance mutations and provide insights to understanding fitness barriers in the evolution and reversion of drug resistance.
Eliciting antibodies that are cross reactive with surface proteins of diverse strains of highly mutable pathogens (e.g., HIV, influenza) could be key for developing effective universal vaccines. ...Mutations in the framework regions of such broadly neutralizing antibodies (bnAbs) have been reported to play a role in determining their properties. We used molecular dynamics simulations and models of affinity maturation to study specific bnAbs against HIV. Our results suggest that there are different classes of evolutionary lineages for the bnAbs. If germline B cells that initiate affinity maturation have high affinity for the conserved residues of the targeted epitope, framework mutations increase antibody rigidity as affinity maturation progresses to evolve bnAbs. If the germline B cells exhibit weak/moderate affinity for conserved residues, an initial increase in flexibility via framework mutations may be required for the evolution of bnAbs. Subsequent mutations that increase rigidity result in highly potent bnAbs. Implications of our results for immunogen design are discussed.
The innate immune system is the body's first line of defense against infection. Natural killer (NK) cells, a vital part of the innate immune system, help to control infection and eliminate cancer. ...Studies have identified a vast array of receptors that NK cells use to discriminate between healthy and unhealthy cells. However, at present, it is difficult to explain how NK cells will respond to novel stimuli in different environments. In addition, the expression of different receptors on individual NK cells is highly stochastic, but the reason for these variegated expression patterns is unclear. Here, we studied the recognition of unhealthy target cells as an inference problem, where NK cells must distinguish between healthy targets with normal variability in ligand expression and ones that are clear "outliers." Our mathematical model fits well with experimental data, including NK cells' adaptation to changing environments and responses to different target cells. Furthermore, we find that stochastic, "sparse" receptor expression profiles are best able to detect a variety of possible threats, in agreement with experimental studies of the NK cell repertoire. While our study was specifically motivated by NK cells, our model is general and could also apply more broadly to explain principles of target recognition for other immune cell types.
Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) evolves within infected persons to escape being destroyed by the host immune system, thereby preventing effective immune control of infection. Here, we combine ...methods from evolutionary dynamics and statistical physics to simulate in vivo HIV sequence evolution, predicting the relative rate of escape and the location of escape mutations in response to T-cell-mediated immune pressure in a cohort of 17 persons with acute HIV infection. Predicted and clinically observed times to escape immune responses agree well, and we show that the mutational pathways to escape depend on the viral sequence background due to epistatic interactions. The ability to predict escape pathways and the duration over which control is maintained by specific immune responses open the door to rational design of immunotherapeutic strategies that might enable long-term control of HIV infection. Our approach enables intra-host evolution of a human pathogen to be predicted in a probabilistic framework.
By considering the weight penalty of batteries on payload and total vehicle weight, this paper shows that almost all forms of land-based transport may be served by battery electric vehicles (BEV) ...with acceptable cost and driving range. Only long-distance road freight is unsuitable for battery electrification. The paper models the future Indian electricity grid supplied entirely by low-carbon forms of generation to quantify the additional solar PV power required to supply energy for transport. Hydrogen produced by water electrolysis for use as a fuel for road freight provides an inter-seasonal energy store that accommodates variations in renewable energy supply. The advantages and disadvantages are considered of midday electric vehicle charging vs. overnight charging considering the temporal variations in supply of renewable energy and demand for transport services. There appears to be little to choose between these two options in terms of total system costs. The result is an energy scenario for decarbonized surface transport in India, based on renewable energy, that is possible, realistically achievable, and affordable in a time frame of year 2050.
Changing temperature can substantially shift ecological communities by altering the strength and stability of trophic interactions. Because many ecological rates are constrained by temperature, new ...approaches are required to understand how simultaneous changes in multiple rates alter the relative performance of species and their trophic interactions. We develop an energetic approach to identify the relationship between biomass fluxes and standing biomass across trophic levels. Our approach links ecological rates and trophic dynamics to measure temperature‐dependent changes to the strength of trophic interactions and determine how these changes alter food web stability. It accomplishes this by using biomass as a common energetic currency and isolating three temperature‐dependent processes that are common to all consumer–resource interactions: biomass accumulation of the resource, resource consumption and consumer mortality. Using this framework, we clarify when and how temperature alters consumer to resource biomass ratios, equilibrium resilience, consumer variability, extinction risk and transient vs. equilibrium dynamics. Finally, we characterise key asymmetries in species responses to temperature that produce these distinct dynamic behaviours and identify when they are likely to emerge. Overall, our framework provides a mechanistic and more unified understanding of the temperature dependence of trophic dynamics in terms of ecological rates, biomass ratios and stability.
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