Abstract Background Lyme disease continues to expand in Canada and the USA and no single intervention is likely to curb the epidemic. Methods We propose a platform to quantitatively assess the ...effectiveness of a subset of Ixodes scapularis tick management approaches. The platform allows us to assess the impact of different control treatments, conducted either individually (single interventions) or in combination (combined efforts), with varying timings and durations. Interventions include three low environmental toxicity measures in differing combinations, namely reductions in white-tailed deer ( Odocoileus virginianus ) populations, broadcast area-application of the entomopathogenic fungus Metarhizium anisopliae , and fipronil-based rodent-targeted bait boxes. To assess the impact of these control efforts, we calibrated a process-based mathematical model to data collected from residential properties in the town of Redding, southwestern Connecticut, where an integrated tick management program to reduce I.xodes scapularis nymphs was conducted from 2013 through 2016. We estimated parameters mechanistically for each of the three treatments, simulated multiple combinations and timings of interventions, and computed the resulting percent reduction of the nymphal peak and of the area under the phenology curve. Results Simulation outputs suggest that the three-treatment combination and the bait boxes–deer reduction combination had the overall highest impacts on suppressing I. scapularis nymphs. All (single or combined) interventions were more efficacious when implemented for a higher number of years. When implemented for at least 4 years, most interventions (except the single application of the entomopathogenic fungus) were predicted to strongly reduce the nymphal peak compared with the no intervention scenario. Finally, we determined the optimal period to apply the entomopathogenic fungus in residential yards, depending on the number of applications. Conclusions Computer simulation is a powerful tool to identify the optimal deployment of individual and combined tick management approaches, which can synergistically contribute to short-to-long-term, costeffective, and sustainable control of tick-borne diseases in integrated tick management (ITM) interventions. Graphical Abstract
Habitat fragmentation and host community composition are implicated as key drivers of changing tick populations and tick‐borne pathogen dynamics, altering infection risk through coupled ...socioecological pathways that mediate interactions between tick vectors, vertebrate hosts, and humans. Patterns of host diversity may be particularly idiosyncratic across urbanized landscapes, due to trade‐offs between extreme fragmentation that reduces habitat suitability and access, and human activities that artificially increase resource availability for wildlife. We used camera and hair trap surveys and tick sampling to identify links between landscape composition and configuration, the mammalian host community, and the presence of three tick vector species at a human–wildlife interface in New York City, an emerging area within an endemic region for several tick‐borne diseases. We found that human infrastructures, such as the presence of fences in yards, could affect mammal host community composition by changing the “hardness” of edges between urban greenspaces and residential areas. We identified yard‐ and broader landscape‐level features associated with the presence of urban mammal species, and identified cascading effects of host community composition on tick distribution in yards, suggesting management implications for the mitigation of human exposure to tick‐borne pathogens. In particular, we identified a possible role of ubiquitous mesomammals, such as raccoons (Procyon lotor), in transporting Amblyomma americanum ticks between parks and neighboring residential yards, and confirmed the key role of white‐tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) for introducing Ixodes scapularis ticks into yards. Our results challenge assumptions that biodiversity loss in human‐modified areas always increases the risk for tick‐borne diseases. Instead, we found many residential sites had higher mammal species richness and higher detection of low reservoir competent (“dilution”) hosts for Borrelia burgdorferi, such as opossums (Didelphis virginiana), than paired forested greenspaces. Our study highlights the importance of disentangling the mechanisms mediating tick‐borne disease hazard as a critical first step toward reducing urban tick‐borne disease risk.
•Livestock-associated methicillin resistant Staphylococcus aureus should be controlled as it can cause severe infections in humans.•Our new meta-population model combining within- and between-farm ...dynamics simulates LA-MRSA spread along the French pig movement network.•Reducing transmission in farms with the highest betweenness, outdegree or outflux is efficient to reduce LA-MRSA prevalence in pigs.•Farms with the highest indegree should be monitored to optimize surveillance of LA-MRSA introduction in the network.
Livestock-associated methicillin resistant Staphylococcus aureus (LA-MRSA) colonizes livestock animals worldwide, especially pigs and calves. Although frequently carried asymptomatically, LA-MRSA can cause severe infections in humans. It is therefore important to better understand LA-MRSA spreading dynamics within pig farms and over pig movement networks, and to compare different strategies of control and surveillance. For this purpose, we propose a stochastic meta-population model of LA-MRSA spread along the French pig movement network (n = 10,542 farms), combining within- and between-farm dynamics, based on detailed data on breeding practices and pig movements between holdings. We calibrate the model using French epidemiological data. We then identify farm-level factors associated with the spreading potential of LA-MRSA in the network. We also show that, assuming control measures applied in a limited (n = 100) number of farms, targeting farms depending on their centrality in the network is the only way to significantly reduce LA-MRSA global prevalence. Finally, we investigate the scenario of emergence of a new LA-MRSA strain, and find that the farms with the highest indegree would be the best sentinels for a targeted surveillance of such a strain’s introduction.
Workplace absenteeism increases significantly during influenza epidemics. Sick leave records may facilitate more timely detection of influenza outbreaks, as trends in increased sick leave may precede ...alerts issued by sentinel surveillance systems by days or weeks. Sick leave data have not been comprehensively evaluated in comparison to traditional surveillance methods. The aim of this paper is to study the performance and the feasibility of using a detection system based on sick leave data to detect influenza outbreaks.
Sick leave records were extracted from private French health insurance data, covering on average 209,932 companies per year across a wide range of sizes and sectors. We used linear regression to estimate the weekly number of new sick leave spells between 2016 and 2017 in 12 French regions, adjusting for trend, seasonality and worker leaves on historical data from 2010 to 2015. Outbreaks were detected using a 95%-prediction interval. This method was compared to results from the French Sentinelles network, a gold-standard primary care surveillance system currently in place.
Using sick leave data, we detected 92% of reported influenza outbreaks between 2016 and 2017, on average 5.88 weeks prior to outbreak peaks. Compared to the existing Sentinelles model, our method had high sensitivity (89%) and positive predictive value (86%), and detected outbreaks on average 2.5 weeks earlier.
Sick leave surveillance could be a sensitive, specific and timely tool for detection of influenza outbreaks.
The contribution of bacteria in livestock to the global burden of antimicrobial resistance raises concerns worldwide. However, the dynamics of selection and diffusion of antimicrobial resistance in ...farm animals are not fully understood. Here, we used veal calf fattening farms as a model system, as they are a known reservoir of Extended Spectrum β-Lactamase-producing Escherichia coli (ESBL-EC). Longitudinal data of ESBL-EC carriage and antimicrobial use (AMU) were collected from three veal calf farms during the entire fattening process. We developed 18 agent-based mechanistic models to assess different hypotheses regarding the main drivers of ESBL-EC dynamics in calves. The models were independently fitted to the longitudinal data using Markov Chain Monte Carlo and the best model was selected. Within-farm transmission between individuals and sporadic events of contamination were found to drive ESBL-EC dynamics on farms. In the absence of AMU, the median carriage duration of ESBL-EC was estimated to be 19.6 days (95% credible interval: 12.7; 33.3). In the best model, AMU was found to influence ESBL-EC dynamics, by affecting ESBL-EC clearance rather than acquisition. This effect of AMU was estimated to decrease gradually after the end of exposure and to disappear after 62.5 days 50.0; 76.9. Moreover, using a simulation study, we quantified the efficacy of ESBL-EC mitigation strategies. Decreasing ESBL-EC prevalence by 50% on arrival at the fattening farm reduced prevalence at slaughter age by 33.3%. Completely eliminating the use of selective antibiotics on arrival had a strong effect on average ESBL-EC prevalence (relative reduction of 77.0%), but the effect was mild if this use was only decreased by 50% compared to baseline (relative reduction of 3.3%).
Rift Valley Fever (RVF) is a zoonosis that affects large parts of Africa and the Arabian Peninsula. RVF virus (RVFV) is transmitted to humans through contacts with infected animals, animal products, ...mosquito bites or aerosols. Its pathogenesis in humans ranges from asymptomatic forms to potentially deadly haemorrhagic fevers, and the true burden of human infections during outbreaks is generally unknown.
We build a model fitted to both passive surveillance data and serological data collected throughout a RVF epidemic that occurred in Mayotte Island in 2018-2019.
We estimate that RVFV infected 10,797 (95% CrI 4,728-16,127) people aged ≥15 years old in Mayotte during the entire outbreak, among which only 1.2% (0.67%-2.2%) were reported to the syndromic surveillance system. RVFV IgG seroprevalence in people ≥15 years old was estimated to increase from 5.5% (3.6%-7.7%) before the outbreak to 12.9% (10.4%-16.3%) thereafter.
Our results suggest that a large part of RVFV infected people present subclinical forms of the disease and/or do not reach medical care that could lead to their detection by the surveillance system. This may threaten the implementation of exhaustive RVF surveillance and adequate control programs in affected countries.
Since the first reports in summer 2020, SARS-CoV-2 reinfections have raised concerns about the immunogenicity of the virus, which will affect SARS-CoV-2 epidemiology and possibly the burden of ...COVID-19 on our societies in the future. This study provides data on the frequency and characteristics of possible reinfections, using the French national COVID-19 testing database. The Omicron variant had a large impact on the frequency of possible reinfections in France, which represented 3.8% of all confirmed COVID-19 cases since December 2021.
ObjectivesTo quantify the burden of COVID-19-related sick leave during the first pandemic wave in France, accounting for sick leaves due to symptomatic COVID-19 (‘symptomatic sick leaves’) and those ...due to close contact with COVID-19 cases (‘contact sick leaves’).MethodsWe combined data from a national demographic database, an occupational health survey, a social behaviour survey and a dynamic SARS-CoV-2 transmission model. Sick leave incidence from 1 March 2020 to 31 May 2020 was estimated by summing daily probabilities of symptomatic and contact sick leaves, stratified by age and administrative region.ResultsThere were an estimated 1.70M COVID-19-related sick leaves among France’s 40M working-age adults during the first pandemic wave, including 0.42M due to COVID-19 symptoms and 1.28M due to COVID-19 contacts. There was great geographical variation, with peak daily sick leave incidence ranging from 230 in Corse (Corsica) to 33 000 in Île-de-France (the greater Paris region), and greatest overall burden in regions of north-eastern France. Regional sick leave burden was generally proportional to local COVID-19 prevalence, but age-adjusted employment rates and contact behaviours also contributed. For instance, 37% of symptomatic infections occurred in Île-de-France, but 45% of sick leaves. Middle-aged workers bore disproportionately high sick leave burden, owing predominantly to greater incidence of contact sick leaves.ConclusionsFrance was heavily impacted by sick leave during the first pandemic wave, with COVID-19 contacts accounting for approximately three-quarters of COVID-19-related sick leaves. In the absence of representative sick leave registry data, local demography, employment patterns, epidemiological trends and contact behaviours can be synthesised to quantify sick leave burden and, in turn, predict economic consequences of infectious disease epidemics.
Colistin is a critically important antimicrobial for human medicine, and colistin‐resistant Escherichia coli are commonly found in poultry and poultry products in Southeast Asia. Here, we aim at ...disentangling the within‐farm and outside‐farm drivers of colistin resistance in small‐scale chicken farms of the Mekong delta of Vietnam. Nineteen Vietnamese chicken farms were followed up along a whole production cycle, during which weekly antimicrobial use data were recorded. At the beginning, middle and end of each production cycle, commensal E. coli samples from birds were collected, pooled and tested for colistin resistance. Twelve models were fitted to the data using an expectation–maximization algorithm and compared. We further tested the spatial clustering of the occurrence of resistance importations from external sources using the local Moran's I statistic. In the best model, colistin resistance in E. coli from chickens was found to be mostly affected by importations of resistance, and, to a lesser extent, by the use of antimicrobials in the last 1.73 weeks 0.00; 2.90, but not by the use of antimicrobials in day‐olds, nor their colistin resistance carriage from hatchery. The occurrence of external source importations proved to be sometimes spatially clustered, suggesting a role of local environmental sources of colistin resistance.
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