Climate change goes beyond gradual changes in mean conditions. It involves increased variability in climatic drivers and increased frequency and intensity of extreme events. Climate manipulation ...experiments are one major tool to explore the ecological impacts of climate change. Until now, precipitation experiments have dealt with temporal variability or extreme events, such as drought, resulting in a multitude of approaches and scenarios with limited comparability among studies. Temperature manipulations have mainly been focused only on warming, resulting in better comparability among studies. Congruent results of meta-analyses based on warming experiments, however, do not reflect a better general understanding of temperature effects, because the potential effects of more complex changes in temperature, including extreme events, are not yet covered well. Heat, frost, seasonality, and spatial variability in temperature are ecologically important. Embracing complexity in future climate change experiments in general is therefore crucial.
Climatic changes, including altered precipitation regimes, will affect key ecosystem processes, such as plant productivity and biodiversity for many terrestrial ecosystems. Past and ongoing ...precipitation experiments have been conducted to quantify these potential changes. An analysis of these experiments indicates that they have provided important information on how water regulates ecosystem processes. However, they do not adequately represent global biomes nor forecasted precipitation scenarios and their potential contribution to advance our understanding of ecosystem responses to precipitation changes is therefore limited, as is their potential value for the development and testing of ecosystem models. This highlights the need for new precipitation experiments in biomes and ambient climatic conditions hitherto poorly studied applying relevant complex scenarios including changes in precipitation frequency and amplitude, seasonality, extremity and interactions with other global change drivers. A systematic and holistic approach to investigate how soil and plant community characteristics change with altered precipitation regimes and the consequent effects on ecosystem processes and functioning within these experiments will greatly increase their value to the climate change and ecosystem research communities. Experiments should specifically test how changes in precipitation leading to exceedance of biological thresholds affect ecosystem resilience and acclimation.
Intensification of the global hydrological cycle, ranging from larger individual precipitation events to more extreme multiyear droughts, has the potential to cause widespread alterations in ...ecosystem structure and function. With evidence that the incidence of extreme precipitation years (defined statistically from historical precipitation records) is increasing, there is a clear need to identify ecosystems that are most vulnerable to these changes and understand why some ecosystems are more sensitive to extremes than others. To date, opportunistic studies of naturally occurring extreme precipitation years, combined with results from a relatively small number of experiments, have provided limited mechanistic understanding of differences in ecosystem sensitivity, suggesting that new approaches are needed. Coordinated distributed experiments (CDEs) arrayed across multiple ecosystem types and focused on water can enhance our understanding of differential ecosystem sensitivity to precipitation extremes, but there are many design challenges to overcome (e.g., cost, comparability, standardization). Here, we evaluate contemporary experimental approaches for manipulating precipitation under field conditions to inform the design of ‘Drought‐Net’, a relatively low‐cost CDE that simulates extreme precipitation years. A common method for imposing both dry and wet years is to alter each ambient precipitation event. We endorse this approach for imposing extreme precipitation years because it simultaneously alters other precipitation characteristics (i.e., event size) consistent with natural precipitation patterns. However, we do not advocate applying identical treatment levels at all sites – a common approach to standardization in CDEs. This is because precipitation variability varies >fivefold globally resulting in a wide range of ecosystem‐specific thresholds for defining extreme precipitation years. For CDEs focused on precipitation extremes, treatments should be based on each site's past climatic characteristics. This approach, though not often used by ecologists, allows ecological responses to be directly compared across disparate ecosystems and climates, facilitating process‐level understanding of ecosystem sensitivity to precipitation extremes.
Direct quantification of terrestrial biosphere responses to global change is crucial for projections of future climate change in Earth system models. Here, we synthesized ecosystem carbon-cycling ...data from 1,119 experiments performed over the past four decades concerning changes in temperature, precipitation, CO
and nitrogen across major terrestrial vegetation types of the world. Most experiments manipulated single rather than multiple global change drivers in temperate ecosystems of the USA, Europe and China. The magnitudes of warming and elevated CO
treatments were consistent with the ranges of future projections, whereas those of precipitation changes and nitrogen inputs often exceeded the projected ranges. Increases in global change drivers consistently accelerated, but decreased precipitation slowed down carbon-cycle processes. Nonlinear (including synergistic and antagonistic) effects among global change drivers were rare. Belowground carbon allocation responded negatively to increased precipitation and nitrogen addition and positively to decreased precipitation and elevated CO
. The sensitivities of carbon variables to multiple global change drivers depended on the background climate and ecosystem condition, suggesting that Earth system models should be evaluated using site-specific conditions for best uses of this large dataset. Together, this synthesis underscores an urgent need to explore the interactions among multiple global change drivers in underrepresented regions such as semi-arid ecosystems, forests in the tropics and subtropics, and Arctic tundra when forecasting future terrestrial carbon-climate feedback.
In recent years, increased awareness of the potential interactions between rising atmospheric
CO2
concentrations (
CO2
) and temperature has illustrated the importance of multifactorial ecosystem ...manipulation experiments for validating Earth System models. To address the urgent need for increased understanding of responses in multifactorial experiments, this article synthesizes how ecosystem productivity and soil processes respond to combined warming and
CO2
manipulation, and compares it with those obtained in single factor
CO2
and temperature manipulation experiments. Across all combined elevated
CO2
and warming experiments, biomass production and soil respiration were typically enhanced. Responses to the combined treatment were more similar to those in the
CO2
‐only treatment than to those in the warming‐only treatment. In contrast to warming‐only experiments, both the combined and the
CO2
‐only treatments elicited larger stimulation of fine root biomass than of aboveground biomass, consistently stimulated soil respiration, and decreased foliar nitrogen (N) concentration. Nonetheless, mineral N availability declined less in the combined treatment than in the
CO2
‐only treatment, possibly due to the warming‐induced acceleration of decomposition, implying that progressive nitrogen limitation (PNL) may not occur as commonly as anticipated from single factor
CO2
treatment studies. Responses of total plant biomass, especially of aboveground biomass, revealed antagonistic interactions between elevated
CO2
and warming, i.e. the response to the combined treatment was usually less‐than‐additive. This implies that productivity projections might be overestimated when models are parameterized based on single factor responses. Our results highlight the need for more (and especially more long‐term) multifactor manipulation experiments. Because single factor
CO2
responses often dominated over warming responses in the combined treatments, our results also suggest that projected responses to future global warming in Earth System models should not be parameterized using single factor warming experiments.
In recent years, large-scale tree mortality events linked to global change have occurred around the world. Current forest monitoring methods are crucial for identifying mortality hotspots, but ...systematic assessments of isolated or scattered dead trees over large areas are needed to reduce uncertainty on the actual extent of tree mortality. Here, we mapped individual dead trees in California using sub-meter resolution aerial photographs from 2020 and deep learning-based dead tree detection. We identified 91.4 million dead trees over 27.8 million hectares of vegetated areas (16.7-24.7% underestimation bias when compared to field data). Among these, a total of 19.5 million dead trees appeared isolated, and 60% of all dead trees occurred in small groups ( ≤ 3 dead trees within a 30 × 30 m grid), which is largely undetected by other state-level monitoring methods. The widespread mortality of individual trees impacts the carbon budget and sequestration capacity of California forests and can be considered a threat to forest health and a fuel source for future wildfires.
Extreme climate conditions can dramatically alter ecosystems and are expected to become more common in the future; however, our understanding of species and ecosystem responses to extreme conditions ...is limited. We must meet this challenge by designing experiments that cover broad ranges of environmental stress, extending to levels well beyond those observed currently. Such experiments are important because they can identify physiological, community, and biogeochemical thresholds, and improve our understanding of mechanistic ecological responses to climate extremes. Although natural environmental gradients can be used to observe a range of ecological responses, manipulation experiments - including those that impose drought and heat gradients - are necessary to induce variation beyond common limits. Importantly, manipulation experiments allow for determination of the cause and effect of species and ecosystem threshold responses. We present a rationale and recommendations for conducting extreme experiments that extend beyond the historical and even the predicted ranges of environmental conditions.
Researchers use both experiments and observations to study the impacts of climate change on ecosystems, but results from these contrasting approaches have not been systematically compared for ...droughts. Using a meta-analysis and accounting for potential confounding factors, we demonstrate that aboveground biomass responded only about half as much to experimentally imposed drought events as to natural droughts. Our findings indicate that experimental results may underestimate climate change impacts and highlight the need to integrate results across approaches.
Current predictions of climate change include altered rainfall patterns throughout Europe, continental USA and areas such as the Amazon. The effect of this on soil carbon efflux remains unclear ...although several modelling studies have highlighted the potential importance of drought for carbon storage. To test the importance of drought, and more importantly repeated drought year-on-year, we used automated retractable curtains to exclude rain and produce repeated summer drought in three heathlands at varying moisture conditions. This included a hydric system limited by water-excess (in the UK) and two mesic systems with seasonal water limitation in Denmark (DK) and the Netherlands (NL). The experimental rainfall reductions were set to reflect single year droughts observed in the last decade with exclusion of rain for 2-3 months of the year resulting in a 20-26% reduction in annual rainfall and 23-38% reduction in mean soil moisture during the drought period. Unexpectedly, sustained reduction in soil moisture over winter (between drought periods) was also observed at all three sites, along with a reduction in the maximum water-holding capacity attained. Three hypotheses are discussed which may have contributed to this lack of recovery in soil moisture: hydrophobicity of soil organic matter, increased water use by plants and increased cracking of the soil. The responses of soil respiration to this change in soil moisture varied among the sites: decreased rates were observed at the water-limited NL and DK sites whilst they increased at the UK site. Reduced sensitivity of soil respiration to soil temperature was observed at soil moisture contents above 55% at the UK site and below 20% and 13% at the NL and DK sites, respectively. Soil respiration rates recovered to predrought levels in the NL and DK sites during the winter re-wetting period that indicates any change in soil C storage due to changes in soil C efflux may be short lived in these mesic systems. In contrast, in the hydric UK site after 2 years of drought treatment, the persistent reduction in soil moisture throughout the year resulted in a year-round increase in soil respiration flux, a response that accelerated over time to 40% above control levels. These findings suggest that carbon-rich soils with high organic matter content may act as a significant source of CO₂ to the atmosphere following repeated summer drought. Nonrecovery of soil moisture and a persistent increase in soil respiration may be the primary mechanism underlying the reported substantial losses of soil carbon from UK organic soils over the last 20 years. These findings indicate that the water status of an ecosystem will be a critical factor to consider in determining the impact of drought on the soil carbon fluxes and storage.
We used a nonintrusive field experiment carried out at six sites - Wales (UK), Denmark (DK), the Netherlands (NL), Hungary (HU), Sardinia (Italy - IT), and Catalonia (Spain - SP) - along a climatic ...and latitudinal gradient to examine the response of plant species richness and primary productivity to warming and drought in shrubland ecosystems. The warming treatment raised the plot daily temperature by ca. 1 °C, while the drought treatment led to a reduction in soil moisture at the peak of the growing season that ranged from 26% at the SP site to 82% in the NL site. During the 7 years the experiment lasted (1999-2005), we used the pin-point method to measure the species composition of plant communities and plant biomass, litterfall, and shoot growth of the dominant plant species at each site. A significantly lower increase in the number of species pin-pointed per transect was found in the drought plots at the SP site, where the plant community was still in a process of recovering from a forest fire in 1994. No changes in species richness were found at the other sites, which were at a more mature and stable state of succession and, thus less liable to recruitment of new species. The relationship between annual biomass accumulation and temperature of the growing season was positive at the coldest site and negative at the warmest site. The warming treatment tended to increase the aboveground net primary productivity (ANPP) at the northern sites. The relationship between annual biomass accumulation and soil moisture during the growing season was not significant at the wettest sites, but was positive at the driest sites. The drought treatment tended to reduce the ANPP in the NL, HU, IT, and SP sites. The responses to warming were very strongly related to the Gaussen aridity index (stronger responses the lower the aridity), whereas the responses to drought were not. Changes in the annual aboveground biomass accumulation, litterfall, and, thus, the ANPP, mirrored the interannual variation in climate conditions: the most outstanding change was a decrease in biomass accumulation and an increase in litterfall at most sites during the abnormally hot year of 2003. Species richness also tended to decrease in 2003 at all sites except the cold and wet UK site. Species-specific responses to warming were found in shoot growth: at the SP site, Globularia alypum was not affected, while the other dominant species, Erica multiflora, grew 30% more; at the UK site, Calluna vulgaris tended to grow more in the warming plots, while Empetrum nigrum tended to grow less. Drought treatment decreased plant growth in several studied species, although there were some species such as Pinus halepensis at the SP site or C. vulgaris at the UK site that were not affected. The magnitude of responses to warming and drought thus depended greatly on the differences between sites, years, and species and these multiple plant responses may be expected to have consequences at ecosystem and community level. Decreases in biodiversity and the increase in E. multiflora growth at the SP site as a response to warming challenge the assumption that sensitivity to warming may be less well developed at more southerly latitudes; likewise, the fact that one of the studied shrublands presented negative ANPP as a response to the 2003 heat wave also challenges the hypothesis that future climate warming will lead to an enhancement of plant growth and carbon sequestration in temperate ecosystems. Extreme events may thus change the general trend of increased productivity in response to warming in the colder sites.
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