Estimation of the perturbation to the Earth's energy budget by contrail outbreaks is required for estimating the climate impact of aviation and verifying the climate benefits of proposed contrail ...avoidance strategies such as aircraft rerouting. Here we identified two successive large‐scale contrail outbreaks developing in clear‐sky conditions in geostationary and polar‐orbiting satellite infrared images of Western Europe lasting from 22–23 June 2020. Their hourly cloud radiative effect, obtained using geostationary satellite cloud retrievals and radiative transfer calculations, is negative or weakly positive during daytime and positive during nighttime. The cumulative energy forcing of the two outbreaks is 7 PJ and −8.5 PJ, with uncertainties of 3 PJ, stemming each from approximately 15–20 flights over periods of 19 and 7 hr, respectively. This study suggests that an automated quantification of contrail outbreak radiative effect is possible, at least for contrails forming in clear sky conditions.
Plain Language Summary
Contrail cirrus is produced by aircraft and perturb the energy budget of the Earth. However, the actual size of the perturbation is uncertain. In this study, we calculate the energy budget perturbation of two successive contrail‐cirrus outbreaks over Western Europe from 22–23 June 2020. An infrared image composite allows the identification and tracking of contrails with a 15 min frequency, which is verified by comparison to satellite images with better horizontal resolution from several polar‐orbiting platforms. Cloud properties of the contrail‐cirrus clusters, estimated from geostationary satellite data, are used in radiative transfer calculations. We find that one contrail cirrus outbreak adds an average power of 2 TW over 20 hr, while the other removes 3.3 TW over 8 hr. This cumulative energy depends on the lifespan and cloud properties of the outbreaks. This case study suggests that geostationary satellite observations allow the estimation of the energy perturbation of a contrail outbreak, with encouraging implications for contrail‐cirrus monitoring and the verification of contrail avoidance strategies.
Key Points
The cloud radiative effect (CRE) of two successive contrail‐cirrus outbreaks is estimated from geostationary satellite measurements
These two outbreaks have different CRE sign and magnitude, which can be explained by their different cloud properties and time evolutions
The study suggests that automated quantification of contrail‐cirrus CRE for monitoring or verification of contrail avoidance is feasible
The latest Hadley Centre climate model, HadGEM2‐ES, includes Earth system components such as interactive chemistry and eight species of tropospheric aerosols. It has been run for the period 1860–2100 ...in support of the fifth phase of the Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Anthropogenic aerosol emissions peak between 1980 and 2020, resulting in a present‐day all‐sky top of the atmosphere aerosol forcing of −1.6 and −1.4 W m−2 with and without ammonium nitrate aerosols, respectively, for the sum of direct and first indirect aerosol forcings. Aerosol forcing becomes significantly weaker in the 21st century, being weaker than −0.5 W m−2 in 2100 without nitrate. However, nitrate aerosols become the dominant species in Europe and Asia and decelerate the decrease in global mean aerosol forcing. Considering nitrate aerosols makes aerosol radiative forcing 2–4 times stronger by 2100 depending on the representative concentration pathway, although this impact is lessened when changes in the oxidation properties of the atmosphere are accounted for. Anthropogenic aerosol residence times increase in the future in spite of increased precipitation, as cloud cover and aerosol‐cloud interactions decrease in tropical and midlatitude regions. Deposition of fossil fuel black carbon onto snow and ice surfaces peaks during the 20th century in the Arctic and Europe but keeps increasing in the Himalayas until the middle of the 21st century. Results presented here confirm the importance of aerosols in influencing the Earth's climate, albeit with a reduced impact in the future, and suggest that nitrate aerosols will partially replace sulphate aerosols to become an important anthropogenic species in the remainder of the 21st century.
Key Points
Aerosol forcing is currently at its peak and will decrease strongly in the future
Nitrate aerosols partially replace sulfate as the dominant man‐made species
Nitrate aerosols decelerate the decrease in aerosol forcing in the 21st century
Abstract
Aircraft produce condensation trails, which are thought to increase high-level cloudiness under certain conditions. However the magnitude of such an effect and whether this contributes ...substantially to the radiative forcing due to the aviation sector remain uncertain. The very substantial, near-global reduction in air traffic in response to the COVID-19 outbreak offers an unprecedented opportunity to identify the anthropogenic contribution to the observed cirrus coverage and thickness. Here we show, using an analysis of satellite observations for the period March–May 2020, that in the 20% of the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes with the largest air traffic reduction, cirrus fraction was reduced by ∼9 ± 1.5% on average, and cirrus emissivity was reduced by ∼2 ± 5% relative to what they should have been with normal air traffic. The changes are corroborated by a consistent estimate based on linear trends over the period 2011–2019. The change in cirrus translates to a global radiative forcing of 61 ± 39 mW m
−2
. This estimate is somewhat smaller than previous assessments.
Current mitigation efforts and existing future commitments are inadequate to accomplish the Paris Agreement temperature goals. In light of this, research and debate are intensifying on the ...possibilities of additionally employing proposed climate geoengineering technologies, either through atmospheric carbon dioxide removal or farther-reaching interventions altering the Earth's radiative energy budget. Although research indicates that several techniques may eventually have the physical potential to contribute to limiting climate change, all are in early stages of development, involve substantial uncertainties and risks, and raise ethical and governance dilemmas. Based on present knowledge, climate geoengineering techniques cannot be relied on to significantly contribute to meeting the Paris Agreement temperature goals.
The main uncertainty in anthropogenic forcing of the Earth's climate stems from pollution aerosols, particularly their “indirect effect” whereby aerosols modify cloud properties. We develop a new ...methodology to derive a measurement‐based estimate using almost exclusively information from an Earth radiation budget instrument (CERES) and a radiometer (MODIS). We derive a statistical relationship between planetary albedo and cloud properties, and, further, between the cloud properties and column aerosol concentration. Combining these relationships with a data set of satellite‐derived anthropogenic aerosol fraction, we estimate an anthropogenic radiative forcing of −0.9 ± 0.4 Wm−2 for the aerosol direct effect and of −0.2 ± 0.1 Wm−2 for the cloud albedo effect. Because of uncertainties in both satellite data and the method, the uncertainty of this result is likely larger than the values given here which correspond only to the quantifiable error estimates. The results nevertheless indicate that current global climate models may overestimate the cloud albedo effect.
The insula is a complex structure involved in a wide range of functions. Tracing studies on nonhuman primates reveal a wide array of cortical connections in the frontal (orbitofrontal and prefrontal ...cortices, cingulate areas and supplementary motor area), parietal (primary and secondary somatosensory cortices) and temporal (temporal pole, auditory, prorhinal and entorhinal cortices) lobes. However, recent human tractography studies have not observed connections between the insula and the cingulate cortices, although these structures are thought to be functionally intimately connected. In this work, we try to unravel the structural connectivity between these regions and other known functionally connected structures, benefiting from a higher number of subjects and the latest state-of-the-art high angular resolution diffusion imaging (HARDI) tractography algorithms with anatomical priors. By performing an HARDI tractography analysis on 46 young normal adults, our study reveals a wide array of connections between the insula and the frontal, temporal, parietal and occipital lobes as well as limbic regions, with a rostro-caudal organization in line with tracing studies in macaques. Notably, we reveal for the first time in humans a clear structural connectivity between the insula and the cingulate, parahippocampal, supramarginal and angular gyri as well as the precuneus and occipital regions.
Plant photosynthesis tends to increase with irradiance. However, recent theoretical and observational studies have demonstrated that photosynthesis is also more efficient under diffuse light ...conditions. Changes in cloud cover or atmospheric aerosol loadings, arising from either volcanic or anthropogenic emissions, alter both the total photosynthetically active radiation reaching the surface and the fraction of this radiation that is diffuse, with uncertain overall effects on global plant productivity and the land carbon sink. Here we estimate the impact of variations in diffuse fraction on the land carbon sink using a global model modified to account for the effects of variations in both direct and diffuse radiation on canopy photosynthesis. We estimate that variations in diffuse fraction, associated largely with the 'global dimming' period, enhanced the land carbon sink by approximately one-quarter between 1960 and 1999. However, under a climate mitigation scenario for the twenty-first century in which sulphate aerosols decline before atmospheric CO2 is stabilized, this 'diffuse-radiation' fertilization effect declines rapidly to near zero by the end of the twenty-first century.
The availability of carbon from rising atmospheric carbon dioxide levels and of nitrogen from various human-induced inputs to ecosystems is continuously increasing; however, these increases are not ...paralleled by a similar increase in phosphorus inputs. The inexorable change in the stoichiometry of carbon and nitrogen relative to phosphorus has no equivalent in Earth's history. Here we report the profound and yet uncertain consequences of the human imprint on the phosphorus cycle and nitrogen:phosphorus stoichiometry for the structure, functioning and diversity of terrestrial and aquatic organisms and ecosystems. A mass balance approach is used to show that limited phosphorus and nitrogen availability are likely to jointly reduce future carbon storage by natural ecosystems during this century. Further, if phosphorus fertilizers cannot be made increasingly accessible, the crop yields projections of the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment imply an increase of the nutrient deficit in developing regions.
Radiative forcing is a useful tool for predicting equilibrium global temperature change. However, it is not so useful for predicting global precipitation changes, as changes in precipitation strongly ...depend on the climate change mechanism and how it perturbs the atmospheric and surface energy budgets. Here a suite of climate model experiments and radiative transfer calculations are used to quantify and assess this dependency across a range of climate change mechanisms. It is shown that the precipitation response can be split into two parts: a fast atmospheric response that strongly correlates with the atmospheric component of radiative forcing, and a slower response to global surface temperature change that is independent of the climate change mechanism, ∼2‐3% per unit of global surface temperature change. We highlight the precipitation response to black carbon aerosol forcing as falling within this range despite having an equilibrium response that is of opposite sign to the radiative forcing and global temperature change.
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