ABSTRACT The properties that are expected of "hot" non-flaring plasmas due to nanoflare heating in active regions are investigated using hydrodynamic modeling tools, including a two-fluid development ...of the Enthalpy Based Thermal Evolution of Loops code. Here we study a single nanoflare and show that while simple models predict an emission measure distribution extending well above 10 MK, which is consistent with cooling by thermal conduction, many other effects are likely to limit the existence and detectability of such plasmas. These include: differential heating between electrons and ions, ionization non-equilibrium, and for short nanoflares, the time taken for the coronal density to increase. The most useful temperature range to look for this plasma, often called the "smoking gun" of nanoflare heating, lies between 106.6 and 107 K. Signatures of the actual heating may be detectable in some instances.
ABSTRACT Despite its prediction over two decades ago, the detection of faint, high-temperature ("hot") emission due to nanoflare heating in non-flaring active region cores has proved challenging. ...Using an efficient two-fluid hydrodynamic model, this paper investigates the properties of the emission expected from repeating nanoflares (a nanoflare train) of varying frequency as well as the separate heating of electrons and ions. If the emission measure distribution (EM(T)) peaks at T = Tm, we find that EM(Tm) is independent of details of the nanoflare train, and EM(T) above and below Tm reflects different aspects of the heating. Below Tm, the main influence is the relationship of the waiting time between successive nanoflares to the nanoflare energy. Above Tm, power-law nanoflare distributions lead to an extensive plasma population not present in a mono-energetic train. Furthermore, in some cases, characteristic features are present in EM(T). Such details may be detectable given adequate spectral resolution and a good knowledge of the relevant atomic physics. In the absence of such resolution we propose some metrics that can be used to infer the presence of "hot" plasma.
To adequately constrain the frequency of energy deposition in active region cores in the solar corona, systematic comparisons between detailed models and observational data are needed. In this paper, ...we describe a pipeline for forward modeling active region emission using magnetic field extrapolations and field-aligned hydrodynamic models. We use this pipeline to predict time-dependent emission from active region NOAA 1158 for low-, intermediate-, and high-frequency nanoflares. In each pixel of our predicted multi-wavelength, time-dependent images, we compute two commonly used diagnostics: the emission measure slope and the time lag. We find that signatures of the heating frequency persist in both of these diagnostics. In particular, our results show that the distribution of emission measure slopes narrows and the mean decreases with decreasing heating frequency and that the range of emission measure slopes is consistent with past observational and modeling work. Furthermore, we find that the time lag becomes increasingly spatially coherent with decreasing heating frequency while the distribution of time lags across the whole active region becomes more broad with increasing heating frequency. In a follow-up paper, we train a random forest classifier on these predicted diagnostics and use this model to classify real observations of NOAA 1158 in terms of the underlying heating frequency.
Abstract
Constraining the frequency of energy deposition in magnetically closed active region cores requires sophisticated hydrodynamic simulations of the coronal plasma and detailed forward modeling ...of the optically thin line-of-sight integrated emission. However, understanding which set of model inputs best matches a set of observations is complicated by the need for any proposed heating model to simultaneously satisfy multiple observable constraints. In this paper, we train a random forest classification model on a set of forward-modeled observable quantities, namely the emission measure slope, the peak temperature of the emission measure distribution, and the time lag and maximum cross-correlation between multiple pairs of AIA channels. We then use our trained model to classify the heating frequency in every pixel of active region NOAA 1158 using the observed emission measure slopes, peak temperatures, time lags, and maximum cross-correlations, and are able to map the heating frequency across the entire active region. We find that high-frequency heating dominates in the inner core of the active region while intermediate-frequency dominates closer to the periphery of the active region. Additionally, we assess the importance of each observed quantity in our trained classification model and find that the emission measure slope is the dominant feature in deciding with which heating frequency a given pixel is most consistent. The technique presented here offers a very promising and widely applicable method for assessing observations in terms of detailed forward models given an arbitrary number of observable constraints.
ABSTRACT
The Enthalpy Based Thermal Evolution of Loops approximate model for static and dynamic coronal loops is developed to include the effect of a loop cross-sectional area which increases from ...the base of the transition region (TR) to the corona. The TR is defined as the part of a loop between the top of the chromosphere and the location where thermal conduction changes from an energy loss to an energy gain. There are significant differences from constant area loops due to the manner in which the reduced volume of the TR responds to conductive and enthalpy fluxes from the corona. For static loops with modest area variation the standard picture of loop energy balance is retained, with the corona and TR being primarily a balance between heating and conductive losses in the corona, and downward conduction and radiation to space in the TR. As the area at the loop apex increases, the TR becomes thicker and the density in TR and corona larger. For large apex areas, the coronal energy balance changes to one primarily between heating and radiation, with conduction playing an increasingly unimportant role, and the TR thickness becoming a significant fraction of the loop length. Approximate scaling laws are derived that give agreement with full numerical solutions for the density, but not the temperature. For non-uniform areas, dynamic loops have a higher peak temperature and are denser in the radiative cooling phase by of order 50 per cent than the constant area case for the examples considered. They also show a final rapid cooling and draining once the temperature approaches 1 MK. Although the magnitude of the emission measure will be enhanced in the radiative phase, there is little change in the important observational diagnostic of its temperature dependence.
1. The urgency and scale of the global biodiversity crisis requires the application of generalized predictors of a species' likelihood of going extinct or becoming invasive in non-native areas. A ...common approach is to correlate species' ecological and life-history characteristics (attributes, traits) with the probability of becoming either threatened (responding negatively to human activity), or invasive (responding positively). The limitation of previous studies is that the fates of becoming threatened or invasive have generally been treated in isolation. 2. Here we consider the problem of threat and invasiveness in unison based on analysis of one of the largest-ever species attributes data bases (8906 species) compiled for a single plant family (Fabaceae). We used generalized linear mixed-effects models (using taxonomic grouping to control for within-family phylogenetic relationships) to correlate species' life-history and ecological traits to three response variables: probability of being (i) threatened or not, (ii) invasive or not, and (iii) threatened or invasive. 3. We found that tall, annual, range-restricted species with tree-like growth forms, inhabiting closed-forest and lowland sites are more likely to be threatened. Conversely, climbing and herbaceous species that naturally span multiple floristic kingdoms and habitat types are more likely to become invasive. 4. Synthesis. These results support the idea that at least for one of the richest plant families, species' life-history and ecological traits correlate with a fate response to anthropogenic global change. Our results show that species do demonstrate particular susceptibility to either fate based on their evolved traits, and that traits generally correlated with invasiveness are also those that correlate with a reduced probability of becoming threatened.
Rapid land-use and climate changes are projected to cause broad-scale global land-cover transformation that will increase species extinction rates. We assessed the exposure of globally threatened ...plant biodiversity to future habitat loss over the first half of this century by testing country-level associations between threatened plant species richness and future habitat loss owing to land-use and climate changes, separately. In countries overlapping Biodiversity Hotspots, plant species endangerment increases with climate change-driven habitat loss. This association suggests that many currently threatened plant species will become extinct owing to anthropogenic climate change in the absence of potentially mitigating factors such as natural and assisted range shift, and physiological and genetic adaptations. Countries rich in threatened species, which are also projected to have relatively high total future habitat loss, are concentrated around the equator. Because poverty and poor governance can compromise conservation, we considered the economic condition and quality of governance with the degree of plant species endangerment and future habitat loss to prioritize countries based on conservation need. We identified Angola, Cuba, Democratic Republic of Congo, Ethiopia, Kenya, Laos, Madagascar, Myanmar, Nepal, Tajikistan, and Tanzania as the countries in greatest need of conservation assistance. For conservation endeavors to be effective, the conservation capacity of these high-need countries needs to be improved by assisting political stability and economic sustainability. We make policy recommendations that aim to mitigate climate change, promote plant species conservation, and improve the economic conditions and quality of governance in countries with high conservation need.
Rapid losses and degradation of natural habitats in the tropics are driving catastrophic declines and extinctions of native biotas, including angiosperms. Determining the ecological and life-history ...correlates of extinction proneness in tropical plant species may help reveal the mechanisms underlying their responses to habitat disturbance, and assist in the pre-emptive identification of species at risk from extinction. We determined the predictors of extinction proneness in 1884 locally extinct (n = 454) and extant (n = 1430) terrestrial angiosperms (belonging to 43 orders, 133 families, and 689 genera) in the tropical island nation of Singapore (699.4 km²), which has lost 99.6% of its primary lowland evergreen rainforest since 1819. A wide variety of traits such as geographical distribution, pollination system, sexual system, habit, habitat, height, fruit/seed dispersal mechanism, and capacity for vegetative re-sprouting were used in the analysis. Despite controlling for phylogeny (as approximated by family level classification), we found that only a small percentage of the variation in the extinction probability could be explained by these factors. Epiphytic, monoecious, and hermaphroditic species and those restricted to inland forests have higher probabilities of extinction. Species dependent on mammal pollinators also probably have higher extinction probabilities. More comparative studies that use species traits to identify extinction-prone plant species are needed to guide the enormous, but essential task of identifying species most in need of conservation action.
Azithromycin is recommended for the treatment of uncomplicated urogenital chlamydia infection although the standard 1gram dose sometimes fails to eradicate the infection (treatment failure). One ...hypothesis proposed for treatment failure has been insufficient levels of the antibiotic at the site of infection. We developed an assay using liquid chromatography and tandem mass spectrometry (LC-MS/MS) to measure azithromycin concentration in high-vaginal swabs and monitor how concentration changes over time following routine azithromycin treatment.
Azithromycin concentrations were measured in two groups of women either within the first 24h of taking a 1g dose (N = 11) or over 9 days (N = 10). Azithromycin concentrations were normalised to an internal standard (leucine enkephalin), and the bulk lipid species phosphatidylcholine PC(34:1), using an Agilent 6490 triple quadrupole instrument in positive ionisation mode. The abundances of azithromycin, PC(34:1), and leu-enkephalin were determined by multiple reaction monitoring and absolute levels of azithromycin estimated using standard curves prepared on vaginal specimens.
Vaginal azithromycin concentrations of women were rapidly obtained after 5h post-treatment (mean concentration = 1031mcg/mg of lipid, range = 173-2693mcg/mg). In women followed for 9 days, peak concentrations were highest after day 2 (mean concentration = 2206mcg/mg, range = 721-5791mcg/mg), and remained high for at least 9 days with a mean concentration of 384mcg/mg (range = 139-1024mcg/mg) on day 9.
Our study confirmed that a single 1g dose of azithromycin is rapidly absorbed and remains in the vagina at relatively high levels for at least a week, suggesting that poor antibiotic absorption is unlikely to be an explanation for treatment failure.
Aim (1) To determine the relative need for conservation assessments of vascular plant species among the world's ecoregions given under‐assessed species distributions; (2) to evaluate the challenge ...posed by the lack of financial resources on species assessment efforts; and (3) to demonstrate the utility of nonlinear mixed‐effects models with both homoscedastic and heteroscedastic error structures in the identification of species‐rich ecoregions. Location Global. Methods We identified the world's ecoregions that contain the highest vascular plant species richness after controlling for area using species-area relationship (SAR) models built within a mixed‐effects multi‐model framework. Using quantitative thresholds, ecoregions with the highest plant species richness, historical habitat loss and projected increase in human population density were deemed to be most in need of conservation assessments of plant species. We used generalized linear models to test if countries that overlap with highly important ecoregions are poorer compared with others. Results We classed ecoregions into nine categories based on the relative need for conservation assessments of vascular plant species. Ecoregions of highest relative need are found mostly in the tropics, particularly Southeast Asia, Central America, Tropical Andes and the Cerrado of South America, and the East African montane region and its surrounding areas. Countries overlapping with ecoregions deemed important for conservation assessments are poorer as measured by their capita gross national income than the other countries. The nonlinear mixed modelling framework was effective in reducing residual spatial autocorrelation compared with nonlinear models comprised of only fixed effects. In contrasting multiple SAR models to identify species‐rich ecoregions, there was not one SAR model that fitted best across all biomes. Not all SAR models displayed homoscedastic errors; therefore it is important to consider models with both homoscedastic and heteroscedastic error structures. Main conclusions We propose that conservation assessments should be conducted first in ecoregions with the greatest predicted species richness, historical habitat loss and future human population increase. As ecoregions deemed to be important for conservation assessments are located in the poorest countries, we urge international aid agencies and botanic gardens to cooperate with both local and international scientists to fund and implement conservation assessment programmes there.
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