We examined whether obesity at ages 50, 60, and 70 years is associated with subsequent dementia. Changes in body mass index (BMI) for more than 28 years before dementia diagnosis were compared with ...changes in BMI in those free of dementia.
A total of 10,308 adults (33% women) aged 35 to 55 years in 1985 were followed up until 2015. BMI was assessed six times and 329 cases of dementia were recorded.
Obesity (BMI ≥30 kg/m2) at age 50 years (hazard ratio = 1.93; 1.35–2.75) but not at 60 or 70 years was associated with risk of dementia. Trajectories of BMI differed in those with dementia compared with all others (P < .0001) or to matched control subjects (P < .0001) such that BMI in dementia cases was higher from 28 years (P = .001) to 16 years (P = .05) and lower starting 8 years before diagnosis.
Obesity in midlife and weight loss in the preclinical phase characterizes dementia; the current obesity epidemic may affect future dementia rates.
Summary Background & aims Low-grade inflammation appears to play an etiological role in cognitive decline. However the association between an inflammatory dietary pattern and cognitive decline has ...not been investigated. We aimed to investigate dietary patterns associated with inflammation and whether such diet is associated with cognitive decline. Methods We analyzed 5083 participants (28.7% women) from the Whitehall II cohort study. Diet and serum interleukin-6 (IL-6) were assessed in 1991–1993 and 1997–1999. We used reduced rank regression methods to determine a dietary pattern associated with elevated IL-6. Cognitive tests were performed in 1997–1999 and repeated in 2002–2004 and 2007–2009. The association between dietary pattern and cognitive decline between ages 45 and 79 was assessed using linear mixed models. Results We identified an inflammatory dietary pattern characterized by higher intake of red meat, processed meat, peas and legumes, and fried food, and lower intake of whole grains which correlated with elevated IL-6 both in 1991–1993 and 1997–1999. A greater decline in reasoning was seen in participants in the highest tertile of adherence to the inflammatory dietary pattern (−0.37 SD; 95% confidence interval CI −0.40, −0.34) compared to those in the lowest tertile (−0.31; 95% CI −0.34, −0.28) after adjustment for age, sex, ethnicity, occupational status, education, and total energy intake (p for interaction across tertiles = 0.01). This association remained significant after multivariable adjustment. Similarly for global cognition, the inflammatory dietary pattern was associated with faster cognitive decline after multivariable adjustment (p for interaction across tertiles = 0.04). Associations were stronger in younger participants (<56 years), reducing the possibility of reverse causation. Conclusions Our study found that a dietary pattern characterized as higher intake of red and processed meat, peas, legumes and fried food, and lower intake of whole grains was associated with higher inflammatory markers and accelerated cognitive decline at older ages. This supports the case for further research.
Prediabetes (intermediate hyperglycaemia) is a high-risk state for diabetes that is defined by glycaemic variables that are higher than normal, but lower than diabetes thresholds. 5–10% of people per ...year with prediabetes will progress to diabetes, with the same proportion converting back to normoglycaemia. Prevalence of prediabetes is increasing worldwide and experts have projected that more than 470 million people will have prediabetes by 2030. Prediabetes is associated with the simultaneous presence of insulin resistance and β-cell dysfunction—abnormalities that start before glucose changes are detectable. Observational evidence shows associations between prediabetes and early forms of nephropathy, chronic kidney disease, small fibre neuropathy, diabetic retinopathy, and increased risk of macrovascular disease. Multifactorial risk scores using non-invasive measures and blood-based metabolic traits, in addition to glycaemic values, could optimise estimation of diabetes risk. For prediabetic individuals, lifestyle modification is the cornerstone of diabetes prevention, with evidence of a 40–70% relative-risk reduction. Accumulating data also show potential benefits from pharmacotherapy.
Intake of sweet food, beverages and added sugars has been linked with depressive symptoms in several populations. Aim of this study was to investigate systematically cross-sectional and prospective ...associations between sweet food/beverage intake, common mental disorder (CMD) and depression and to examine the role of reverse causation (influence of mood on intake) as potential explanation for the observed linkage. We analysed repeated measures (23,245 person-observations) from the Whitehall II study using random effects regression. Diet was assessed using food frequency questionnaires, mood using validated questionnaires. Cross-sectional analyses showed positive associations. In prospective analyses, men in the highest tertile of sugar intake from sweet food/beverages had a 23% increased odds of incident CMD after 5 years (95% CI: 1.02, 1.48) independent of health behaviours, socio-demographic and diet-related factors, adiposity and other diseases. The odds of recurrent depression were increased in the highest tertile for both sexes, but not statistically significant when diet-related factors were included in the model (OR 1.47; 95% CI: 0.98, 2.22). Neither CMD nor depression predicted intake changes. Our research confirms an adverse effect of sugar intake from sweet food/beverage on long-term psychological health and suggests that lower intake of sugar may be associated with better psychological health.
Socioeconomic disadvantage is a risk factor for many diseases. We characterised cascades of these conditions by using a data-driven approach to examine the association between socioeconomic status ...and temporal sequences in the development of 56 common diseases and health conditions.
In this multi-cohort study, we used data from two Finnish prospective cohort studies: the Health and Social Support study and the Finnish Public Sector study. Our pooled prospective primary analysis data comprised 109 246 Finnish adults aged 17–77 years at study entry. We captured socioeconomic status using area deprivation and education at baseline (1998–2013). Participants were followed up for health conditions diagnosed according to the WHO International Classification of Diseases until 2016 using linkage to national health records. We tested the generalisability of our findings with an independent UK cohort study—the Whitehall II study (9838 people, baseline in 1997, follow-up to 2017)—using a further socioeconomic status indicator, occupational position.
During 1 110 831 person-years at risk, we recorded 245 573 hospitalisations in the Finnish cohorts; the corresponding numbers in the UK study were 60 946 hospitalisations in 186 572 person-years. Across the three socioeconomic position indicators and after adjustment for lifestyle factors, compared with more advantaged groups, low socioeconomic status was associated with increased risk for 18 (32·1%) of the 56 conditions. 16 diseases formed a cascade of inter-related health conditions with a hazard ratio greater than 5. This sequence began with psychiatric disorders, substance abuse, and self-harm, which were associated with later liver and renal diseases, ischaemic heart disease, cerebral infarction, chronic obstructive bronchitis, lung cancer, and dementia.
Our findings highlight the importance of mental health and behavioural problems in setting in motion the development of a range of socioeconomically patterned physical illnesses. Policy and health-care practice addressing psychological health issues in social context and early in the life course could be effective strategies for reducing health inequalities.
UK Medical Research Council, US National Institute on Aging, NordForsk, British Heart Foundation, Academy of Finland, and Helsinki Institute of Life Science.
The metabolically healthy obese (MHO) phenotype refers to obese individuals with a favourable metabolic profile. Its prognostic value is unclear and may depend on the health outcome being examined. ...We examined the association of MHO phenotype with incident cardiovascular disease (CVD) and type 2 diabetes.
Body mass index and metabolic health, assessed using the Adult Treatment Panel-III (ATP-III) criteria, were assessed on 7122 participants (69.7% men) from the Whitehall II study, aged 39-63 years in 1991-93. Incident CVD (coronary heart disease or stroke) and type 2 diabetes were ascertained from medical screenings (every 5 years), hospital data, and registry linkage until 2009. A total of 657 individuals (9.2% of the cohort) were obese and 42.5% of these were classified as MHO in 1991-93. Over the median follow-up of 17.4 years, there were 828 incident cases of CVD and 798 incident cases of type 2 diabetes. Compared with metabolically healthy normal weight individuals, MHO subjects were at increased risk for CVD (HR = 1.97, 95% CI: 1.38-2.80) and type 2 diabetes (3.25, 95% CI: 2.32-4.54). There was excess risk in metabolically unhealthy obese compared with MHO for type 2 diabetes (1.98, 95% CI: 1.39-2.83) but not CVD (1.23, 95% CI: 0.81-1.87). Treating all measures as time varying covariates produced similar findings.
For type 2 diabetes, the MHO phenotype is associated with lower risk than the metabolically unhealthy obese, but for CVD the risk is as elevated in both obesity phenotypes.
Abstract
STUDY QUESTION
How does the risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) vary with type and age of menopause?
SUMMARY ANSWER
Earlier surgical menopause (e.g. <45 years) poses additional increased ...risk of incident CVD events, compared to women with natural menopause at the same age, and HRT use reduced the risk of CVD in women with early surgical menopause.
WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY
Earlier age at menopause has been linked to an increased risk of CVD mortality and all-cause mortality, but the extent that this risk of CVD varies by type of menopause and the role of postmenopausal HRT use in reducing this risk is unclear.
STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION
Pooled individual-level data of 203 767 postmenopausal women from 10 observational studies that contribute to the International collaboration for a Life course Approach to reproductive health and Chronic disease Events (InterLACE) consortium were included in the analysis.
PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS
Postmenopausal women who had reported menopause (type and age of menopause) and information on non-fatal CVD events were included. Type of menopause (natural menopause and surgical menopause) and age at menopause (categorised as <35, 35–39, 40–44, 45–49, 50–54 and ≥55 years) were exposures of interest. Natural menopause was defined as absence of menstruation over a period of 12 months (no hysterectomy and/or oophorectomy) and surgical menopause as removal of both ovaries. The study outcome was the first non-fatal CVD (defined as either incident coronary heart disease (CHD) or stroke) event ascertained from hospital medical records or self-reported. We used Cox proportional hazards models to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CI for non-fatal CVD events associated with natural menopause and surgical menopause.
MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE
Compared with natural menopause, surgical menopause was associated with over 20% higher risk of CVD (HR 1.22, 95% CI 1.16–1.28). After the stratified analysis by age at menopause, a graded relationship for incident CVD was observed with lower age at menopause in both types of natural and surgical menopause. There was also a significant interaction between type of menopause and age at menopause (P < 0.001). Compared with natural menopause at 50–54 years, women with surgical menopause before 35 (2.55, 2.22–2.94) and 35–39 years (1.91, 1.71–2.14) had higher risk of CVD than those with natural menopause (1.59, 1.23–2.05 and 1.51, 1.33–1.72, respectively). Women who experienced surgical menopause at earlier age (<50 years) and took HRT had lower risk of incident CHD than those who were not users of HRT.
LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION
Self-reported data on type and age of menopause, no information on indication for the surgery (e.g. endometriosis and fibroids) and the exclusion of fatal CVD events may bias our results.
WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS
In clinical practice, women who experienced natural menopause or had surgical menopause at an earlier age need close monitoring and engagement for preventive health measures and early diagnosis of CVD. Our findings also suggested that timing of menopause should be considered as an important factor in risk assessment of CVD for women. The findings on CVD lend some support to the position that elective bilateral oophorectomy (surgical menopause) at hysterectomy for benign diseases should be discouraged based on an increased risk of CVD.
STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTEREST(S)
InterLACE project is funded by the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council project grant (APP1027196). GDM is supported by Australian National Health and Medical Research Council Principal Research Fellowship (APP1121844). There are no competing interests.
Mendelian randomization (MR) studies typically assess the pathogenic relevance of environmental exposures or disease biomarkers, using genetic variants that instrument these exposures. The approach ...is gaining popularity-our systematic review reveals a greater than 10-fold increase in MR studies published between 2004 and 2015. When the MR paradigm was first proposed, few biomarker- or exposure-related genetic variants were known, most having been identified by candidate gene studies. However, genome-wide association studies (GWAS) are now providing a rich source of potential instruments for MR analysis. Many early reviews covering the concept, applications and analytical aspects of the MR technique preceded the surge in GWAS, and thus the question of how best to select instruments for MR studies from the now extensive pool of available variants has received insufficient attention. Here we focus on the most common category of MR studies-those concerning disease biomarkers. We consider how the selection of instruments for MR analysis from GWAS requires consideration of: the assumptions underlying the MR approach; the biology of the biomarker; the genome-wide distribution, frequency and effect size of biomarker-associated variants (the genetic architecture); and the specificity of the genetic associations. Based on this, we develop guidance that may help investigators to plan and readers interpret MR studies.
Early menopause is linked to an increased risk of cardiovascular disease mortality; however, the association between early menopause and incidence and timing of cardiovascular disease is unclear. We ...aimed to assess the associations between age at natural menopause and incidence and timing of cardiovascular disease.
We harmonised and pooled individual-level data from 15 observational studies done across five countries and regions (Australia, Scandinavia, the USA, Japan, and the UK) between 1946 and 2013. Women who had reported their menopause status, age at natural menopause (if postmenopausal), and cardiovascular disease status (including coronary heart disease and stroke) were included. We excluded women who had hysterectomy or oophorectomy and women who did not report their age at menopause. The primary endpoint of this study was the occurrence of first non-fatal cardiovascular disease, defined as a composite outcome of incident coronary heart disease (including heart attack and angina) or stroke (including ischaemic stroke or haemorrhagic stroke). We used Cox proportional hazards models to estimate multivariate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs for the associations between age at menopause and incident cardiovascular disease event. We also adjusted the model to account for smoking status, menopausal hormone therapy status, body-mass index, and education levels. Age at natural menopause was categorised as premenopausal or perimenopausal, younger than 40 years (premature menopause), 40–44 years (early menopause), 45–49 years (relatively early), 50–51 years (reference category), 52–54 years (relatively late), and 55 years or older (late menopause).
Overall, 301 438 women were included in our analysis. Of these 301 438 women, 12 962 (4·3%) had a first non-fatal cardiovascular disease event after menopause, of whom 9369 (3·1%) had coronary heart disease and 4338 (1·4%) had strokes. Compared with women who had menopause at age 50–51 years, the risk of cardiovascular disease was higher in women who had premature menopause (age <40 years; HR 1·55, 95% CI 1·38–1·73; p<0·0001), early menopause (age 40–44 years; 1·30, 1·22–1·39; p<0·0001), and relatively early menopause (age 45–49 years; 1·12, 1·07–1·18; p<0·0001), with a significantly reduced risk of cardiovascular disease following menopause after age 51 years (p<0·0001 for trend). The associations persisted in never smokers, and were strongest before age 60 years for women with premature menopause (HR 1·88, 1·62–2·20; p<0·0001) and early menopause (1·40, 1·27–1·54; p<0·0001), but were attenuated at age 60–69 years, with no significant association observed at age 70 years and older.
Compared with women who had menopause at age 50–51 years, women with premature and early menopause had a substantially increased risk of a non-fatal cardiovascular disease event before the age of 60 years, but not after age 70 years. Women with earlier menopause need close monitoring in clinical practice, and age at menopause might also be considered as an important factor in risk stratification of cardiovascular disease for women.
Australian National Health and Medical Research Council.
Background There is uncertainty around the health impact and economic costs of the recent slowing of the historical decline in cardiovascular disease (CVD) incidence and the future impact on dementia ...and disability. Methods Previously validated IMPACT Better Ageing Markov model for England and Wales, integrating English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (ELSA) data for 17,906 ELSA participants followed from 1998 to 2012, linked to NHS Hospital Episode Statistics. Counterfactual design comparing two scenarios: Scenario 1. CVD Plateau-age-specific CVD incidence remains at 2011 levels, thus continuing recent trends. Scenario 2. CVD Fall-age-specific CVD incidence goes on declining, following longer-term trends. The main outcome measures were age-related healthcare costs, social care costs, opportunity costs of informal care, and quality adjusted life years (valued at £60,000 per QALY). Findings The total 10 year cumulative incremental net monetary cost associated with a persistent plateauing of CVD would be approximately £54 billion (95% uncertainty interval £14.3-£96.2 billion), made up of some £13 billion (£8.8-£16.7 billion) healthcare costs, £1.5 billion (-£0.9-£4.0 billion) social care costs, £8 billion (£3.4-£12.8 billion) informal care and £32 billion (£0.3-£67.6 billion) value of lost QALYs. Interpretation After previous, dramatic falls, CVD incidence has recently plateaued. That slowdown could substantially increase health and social care costs over the next ten years. Healthcare costs are likely to increase more than social care costs in absolute terms, but social care costs will increase more in relative terms. Given the links between COVID-19 and cardiovascular health, effective cardiovascular prevention policies need to be revitalised urgently.
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