Fast radio bursts are astronomical radio flashes of unknown physical nature with durations of milliseconds. Their dispersive arrival times suggest an extragalactic origin and imply radio luminosities ...that are orders of magnitude larger than those of all known short-duration radio transients. So far all fast radio bursts have been detected with large single-dish telescopes with arcminute localizations, and attempts to identify their counterparts (source or host galaxy) have relied on the contemporaneous variability of field sources or the presence of peculiar field stars or galaxies. These attempts have not resulted in an unambiguous association with a host or multi-wavelength counterpart. Here we report the subarcsecond localization of the fast radio burst FRB 121102, the only known repeating burst source, using high-time-resolution radio interferometric observations that directly image the bursts. Our precise localization reveals that FRB 121102 originates within 100 milliarcseconds of a faint 180-microJansky persistent radio source with a continuum spectrum that is consistent with non-thermal emission, and a faint (twenty-fifth magnitude) optical counterpart. The flux density of the persistent radio source varies by around ten per cent on day timescales, and very long baseline radio interferometry yields an angular size of less than 1.7 milliarcseconds. Our observations are inconsistent with the fast radio burst having a Galactic origin or its source being located within a prominent star-forming galaxy. Instead, the source appears to be co-located with a low-luminosity active galactic nucleus or a previously unknown type of extragalactic source. Localization and identification of a host or counterpart has been essential to understanding the origins and physics of other kinds of transient events, including gamma-ray bursts and tidal disruption events. However, if other fast radio bursts have similarly faint radio and optical counterparts, our findings imply that direct subarcsecond localizations may be the only way to provide reliable associations.
Gravitational waves are expected to be radiated by supermassive black hole binaries formed during galaxy mergers. A stochastic superposition of gravitational waves from all such binary systems would ...modulate the arrival times of pulses from radio pulsars. Using observations of millisecond pulsars obtained with the Parkes radio telescope, we constrained the characteristic amplitude of this background, Ac,yr, to be <1.0 × 10–15 with 95% confidence. This limit excludes predicted ranges for Ac,yr from current models with 91 to 99.7% probability. We conclude that binary evolution is either stalled or dramatically accelerated by galactic-center environments and that higher-cadence and shorter-wavelength observations would be more sensitive to gravitational waves.
High-sensitivity radio-frequency observations of millisecond pulsars usually show stochastic, broad-band, pulse-shape variations intrinsic to the pulsar emission process. These variations induce ...jitter noise in pulsar timing observations; understanding the properties of this noise is of particular importance for the effort to detect gravitational waves with pulsar timing arrays. We assess the short-term profile and timing stability of 22 millisecond pulsars that are part of the Parkes Pulsar Timing Array sample by examining intraobservation arrival time variability and single-pulse phenomenology. In 7 of the 22 pulsars, in the band centred at approximately 1400 MHz, we find that the brightest observations are limited by intrinsic jitter. We find consistent results, either detections or upper limits, for jitter noise in other frequency bands. PSR J1909−3744 shows the lowest levels of jitter noise, which we estimate to contribute ∼10 ns root mean square error to the arrival times for hour-duration observations. Larger levels of jitter noise are found in pulsars with wider pulses and distributions of pulse intensities. The jitter noise in PSR J0437−4715 decorrelates over a bandwidth of ∼2 GHz. We show that the uncertainties associated with timing pulsar models can be improved by including physically motivated jitter uncertainties. Pulse-shape variations will limit the timing precision at future, more sensitive, telescopes; it is imperative to account for this noise when designing instrumentation and timing campaigns for these facilities.
We present timing models for 20 millisecond pulsars in the Parkes Pulsar Timing Array. The precision of the parameter measurements in these models has been improved over earlier results by using ...longer data sets and modelling the non-stationary noise. We describe a new noise modelling procedure and demonstrate its effectiveness using simulated data. Our methodology includes the addition of annual dispersion measure (DM) variations to the timing models of some pulsars. We present the first significant parallax measurements for PSRs J1024−0719, J1045−4509, J1600−3053, J1603−7202, and J1730−2304, as well as the first significant measurements of some post-Keplerian orbital parameters in six binary pulsars, caused by kinematic effects. Improved Shapiro delay measurements have resulted in much improved pulsar mass measurements, particularly for PSRs J0437−4715 and J1909−3744 with M
p = 1.44 ± 0.07 and 1.47 ± 0.03 M⊙, respectively. The improved orbital period-derivative measurement for PSR J0437−4715 results in a derived distance measurement at the 0.16 per cent level of precision, D = 156.79 ± 0.25 pc, one of the most fractionally precise distance measurements of any star to date.
The precise localization of the repeating fast radio burst (FRB 121102) has provided the first unambiguous association (chance coincidence probability p 3 × 10−4) of an FRB with an optical and ...persistent radio counterpart. We report on optical imaging and spectroscopy of the counterpart and find that it is an extended (0 6-0 8) object displaying prominent Balmer and O iii emission lines. Based on the spectrum and emission line ratios, we classify the counterpart as a low-metallicity, star-forming, mr′ = 25.1 AB mag dwarf galaxy at a redshift of z = 0.19273(8), corresponding to a luminosity distance of 972 Mpc. From the angular size, the redshift, and luminosity, we estimate the host galaxy to have a diameter 4 kpc and a stellar mass of M* ∼ (4-7) × 107 M , assuming a mass-to-light ratio between 2 to 3 M L −1. Based on the H flux, we estimate the star formation rate of the host to be 0.4 M yr−1 and a substantial host dispersion measure (DM) depth 324 pc cm−3. The net DM contribution of the host galaxy to FRB 121102 is likely to be lower than this value depending on geometrical factors. We show that the persistent radio source at FRB 121102's location reported by Marcote et al. is offset from the galaxy's center of light by ∼200 mas and the host galaxy does not show optical signatures for AGN activity. If FRB 121102 is typical of the wider FRB population and if future interferometric localizations preferentially find them in dwarf galaxies with low metallicities and prominent emission lines, they would share such a preference with long gamma-ray bursts and superluminous supernovae.
The formation and growth processes of supermassive black holes (SMBHs) are not well constrained. SMBH population models, however, provide specific predictions for the properties of the ...gravitational-wave background (GWB) from binary SMBHs in merging galaxies throughout the universe. Using observations from the Parkes Pulsar Timing Array, we constrain the fractional GWB energy density (Ω GW ) with 95% confidence to be Ω GW (H₀/73 kilometers per second per megaparsec)² < 1.3 × 10⁻⁹ (where H₀ is the Hubble constant) at a frequency of 2.8 nanohertz, which is approximately a factor of 6 more stringent than previous limits. We compare our limit to models of the SMBH population and find inconsistencies at confidence levels between 46 and 91%. For example, the standard galaxy formation model implemented in the Millennium Simulation Project is inconsistent with our limit with 50% probability.
The dispersive sweep of fast radio bursts (FRBs) has been used to probe the ionized baryon content of the intergalactic medium
, which is assumed to dominate the total extragalactic dispersion. ...Although the host-galaxy contributions to the dispersion measure appear to be small for most FRBs
, in at least one case there is evidence for an extreme magneto-ionic local environment
and a compact persistent radio source
. Here we report the detection and localization of the repeating FRB 20190520B, which is co-located with a compact, persistent radio source and associated with a dwarf host galaxy of high specific-star-formation rate at a redshift of 0.241 ± 0.001. The estimated host-galaxy dispersion measure of approximately Formula: see text parsecs per cubic centimetre, which is nearly an order of magnitude higher than the average of FRB host galaxies
, far exceeds the dispersion-measure contribution of the intergalactic medium. Caution is thus warranted in inferring redshifts for FRBs without accurate host-galaxy identifications.
Phosphorus losses from land to water will be impacted by climate change and land management for food production, with detrimental impacts on aquatic ecosystems. Here we use a unique combination of ...methods to evaluate the impact of projected climate change on future phosphorus transfers, and to assess what scale of agricultural change would be needed to mitigate these transfers. We combine novel high-frequency phosphorus flux data from three representative catchments across the UK, a new high-spatial resolution climate model, uncertainty estimates from an ensemble of future climate simulations, two phosphorus transfer models of contrasting complexity and a simplified representation of the potential intensification of agriculture based on expert elicitation from land managers. We show that the effect of climate change on average winter phosphorus loads (predicted increase up to 30% by 2050s) will be limited only by large-scale agricultural changes (e.g., 20-80% reduction in phosphorus inputs).The impact of climate change on phosphorus (P) loss from land to water is unclear. Here, the authors use P flux data, climate simulations and P transfer models to show that only large scale agricultural change will limit the effect of climate change on average winter P loads in three catchments across the UK.
Several rating scales have been developed to measure quality of recovery after surgery and anaesthesia, but the most extensively used is the QoR-40, a 40-item questionnaire that provides a global ...score and subscores across five dimensions: patient support, comfort, emotions, physical independence, and pain. It has been evaluated in a variety of settings, but its overall psychometric properties (validity, reliability, ease of use, and interpretation) and clinical utility are uncertain.
We undertook a quantitative systematic review of studies evaluating psychometric properties of the QoR-40. Data were combined in meta-analyses using random effects models. This resulted in a total sample of 3459 patients from 17 studies originating in nine countries.
We confirmed content, construct, and convergent pooled r=0.58, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.51–0.65 validity. Reliability was confirmed by excellent intraclass correlation (pooled α=0.91, 95% CI: 0.88–0.93), test–retest reliability (pooled r=0.90, 95% CI: 0.86–0.92), and inter-rater reliability (intraclass correlation=0.86). The clinical utility of the QoR-40 instrument was supported by high patient recruitment into evaluation studies (97%), and an excellent completion and return rate (97%). The mean time to complete the QoR-40 was 5.1 (95% CI: 4.4–5.7) min.
The QoR-40 is a widely used and extensively validated measure of quality of recovery. The QoR-40 is a suitable measure of postoperative quality of recovery in a range of clinical and research situations.
Current strategies to treat pediatric acute lymphoblastic leukemia rely on risk stratification algorithms using categorical data. We investigated whether using continuous variables assigned different ...weights would improve risk stratification. We developed and validated a multivariable Cox model for relapse-free survival (RFS) using information from 21199 patients. We constructed risk groups by identifying cutoffs of the COG Prognostic Index (PI
) that maximized discrimination of the predictive model. Patients with higher PI
have higher predicted relapse risk. The PI
reliably discriminates patients with low vs. high relapse risk. For those with moderate relapse risk using current COG risk classification, the PI
identifies subgroups with varying 5-year RFS. Among current COG standard-risk average patients, PI
identifies low and intermediate risk groups with 96% and 90% RFS, respectively. Similarly, amongst current COG high-risk patients, PI
identifies four groups ranging from 96% to 66% RFS, providing additional discrimination for future treatment stratification. When coupled with traditional algorithms, the novel PI
can more accurately risk stratify patients, identifying groups with better outcomes who may benefit from less intensive therapy, and those who have high relapse risk needing innovative approaches for cure.
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