Results are presented from two 60-yr integrations of the troposphere–stratosphere configuration of the U.K. Met. Office’s Unified Model. The integrations were set up identically, apart from different ...initial conditions, which, nonetheless, were both representative of the early 1990s. Radiative heating rates were calculated using the IS92A projected concentrations of the well-mixed greenhouse gases (GHGs) given by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, but changes in stratospheric ozone and water vapor were not included. Sea surface conditions were taken from a separate coupled ocean–atmosphere experiment. Both integrations reproduced the familiar pattern of tropospheric warming and a stratospheric cooling increasing with height to about −1.4 K per decade at 1 mb. There was good agreement in the trends apart from in the polar upper stratosphere and, to a greater extent, the polar lower-to-middle stratosphere, where there is significant interannual variability during the winter months. Even after decadal smoothing, the trends in the northern winter were still overshadowed by the variability resulting from the planetary wave forcing from the troposphere. In general, the decadal variability of the Northern Hemisphere stratosphere was not a manifestation of a uniform change throughout each winter but, as with other models, there was a change in the frequency of occurrence of sudden stratospheric warmings. Unlike previous studies, the different results from the two simulations confirm the change in frequency of warmings was due to internal atmospheric variability and not the prescribed changes in GHG concentrations or sea surface conditions. In the southern winter stratosphere the flux of wave activity from the troposphere increased, but any additional dynamical heating was more than offset by the extra radiative cooling from the growing total GHG concentration. Consequently the polar vortex became more stable, with the spring breakdown delayed by 1–2 weeks by the 2050s. Polar stratospheric cloud (PSC) amounts inferred from the predicted temperatures increased in both hemispheres, especially in the early winter. In the Southern Hemisphere, the region of PSC formation expanded both upward and equatorward in response to the temperature trend.
Concentrations of water vapour entering the tropical lower stratosphere are primarily determined by conditions that air parcels encounter as they are transported through the tropical tropopause layer ...(TTL). Here we quantify the relative roles of variations in TTL temperatures and transport in determining seasonal and interannual variations of stratospheric water vapour. Following previous studies, we use trajectory calculations with the water vapour concentration set by the Lagrangian dry point (LDP) along trajectories. To assess the separate roles of transport and temperatures, the LDP calculations are modified by replacing either the winds or the temperatures with those from different years to investigate the wind or temperature sensitivity of water vapour to interannual variations and, correspondingly, with those from different months to investigate the wind or temperature sensitivity to seasonal variations. Both ERA-Interim reanalysis data for the 1999-2009 period and data generated by a chemistry-climate model (UM-UKCA) are investigated. Variations in temperatures, rather than transport, dominate interannual variability, typically explaining more than 70 % of variability, including individual events such as the 2000 stratospheric water vapour drop. Similarly seasonal variation of temperatures, rather than transport, is shown to be the dominant driver of the annual cycle in lower stratospheric water vapour concentrations in both the model and reanalysis, but it is also shown that seasonal variation of transport plays an important role in reducing the seasonal cycle maximum (reducing the annual range by about 30 %).
The connection between the dominant mode of interannual variability in the tropical troposphere, the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and the entry of stratospheric water vapor is analyzed in a ...set of model simulations archived for the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCMI) project and for Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. While the models agree on the temperature response to ENSO in the tropical troposphere and lower stratosphere, and all models and observations also agree on the zonal structure of the temperature response in the tropical tropopause layer, the only aspect of the entry water vapor response with consensus in both models and observations is that La Niña leads to moistening in winter relative to neutral ENSO. For El Niño and for other seasons, there are significant differences among the models. For example, some models find that the enhanced water vapor for La Niña in the winter of the event reverses in spring and summer, some models find that this moistening persists, and some show a nonlinear response, with both El Niño and La Niña leading to enhanced water vapor in both winter, spring, and summer. A moistening in the spring following El Niño events, the signal focused on in much previous work, is simulated by only half of the models. Focusing on Central Pacific ENSO vs. East Pacific ENSO, or temperatures in the mid-troposphere compared with temperatures near the surface, does not narrow the inter-model discrepancies. Despite this diversity in response, the temperature response near the cold point can explain the response of water vapor when each model is considered separately. While the observational record is too short to fully constrain the response to ENSO, it is clear that most models suffer from biases in the magnitude of the interannual variability of entry water vapor. This bias could be due to biased cold-point temperatures in some models, but others appear to be missing forcing processes that contribute to observed variability near the cold point.
The quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) was unexpectedly disrupted for only the second time in the historical record during the 2019/2020 boreal winter. As the dominant mode of atmospheric variability ...in the tropical stratosphere and a significant source of seasonal predictability globally, understanding the drivers behind this unusual behaviour is very important. Here, novel data from Aeolus, the first Doppler wind lidar (DWL) in space, are used to observe the 2019/2020 QBO disruption. Aeolus is the first satellite able to observe winds at high resolution on a global scale, and it is therefore a uniquely capable platform for studying the evolution of the disruption and the broader circulation changes triggered by it. This study therefore contains the first direct wind observations of the QBO from space, and it exploits measurements from a special Aeolus scanning mode, implemented to observe this disruption as it happened. Aeolus observes easterly winds of up to 20 m s−1 in the core of the disruption jet during July 2020. By co-locating with radiosonde measurements from Singapore and the ERA5 reanalysis, comparisons of the observed wind structures in the tropical stratosphere are produced, showing differences in equatorial wave activity during the disruption period. Local zonal wind biases are found in both Aeolus and ERA5 around the tropopause, and the average Aeolus-ERA5 Rayleigh horizontal line-of-sight random error is found to be 7.58 m s−1. The onset of the QBO disruption easterly jet occurs 5 d earlier in Aeolus observations compared with the reanalysis. This discrepancy is linked to Kelvin wave variances that are 3 to 6 m2 s−2 higher in Aeolus compared with ERA5, centred on regions of maximum vertical wind shear in the tropical tropopause layer that are up to twice as sharp. The enhanced lower-stratospheric westerly winds which are known to help disrupt the QBO, perhaps with increasing frequency as the climate changes, are also stronger in Aeolus observations, with important implications for the future predictability of such disruptions. An investigation into differences in the equivalent depth of the most dominant Kelvin waves suggests that slower, shorter-vertical-wavelength waves break more readily in Aeolus observations compared with the reanalysis. This analysis therefore highlights how Aeolus and future DWL satellites can deepen our understanding of the QBO, its disruptions and the tropical upper-troposphere lower-stratosphere region more generally.
Previous multi-model intercomparisons have shown that chemistry-climate models exhibit significant biases in tropospheric ozone compared with observations. We investigate annual-mean tropospheric ...column ozone in 15 models participating in the SPARC/IGAC (Stratosphere-troposphere Processes and their Role in Climate/International Global Atmospheric Chemistry) Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCMI). These models exhibit a positive bias, on average, of up to 40-50% in the Northern Hemisphere compared with observations derived from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument and Microwave Limb Sounder (OMI/MLS), and a negative bias of up to ~30% in the Southern Hemisphere. SOCOLv3.0 (version 3 of the Solar-Climate Ozone Links CCM), which participated in CCMI, simulates global-mean tropospheric ozone columns of 40.2 DU - approximately 33% larger than the CCMI multi-model mean. Here we introduce an updated version of SOCOLv3.0, "SOCOLv3.1", which includes an improved treatment of ozone sink processes, and results in a reduction in the tropospheric column ozone bias of up to 8 DU, mostly due to the inclusion of N
O
hydrolysis on tropospheric aerosols. As a result of these developments, tropospheric column ozone amounts simulated by SOCOLv3.1 are comparable with several other CCMI models. We apply Gaussian process emulation and sensitivity analysis to understand the remaining ozone bias in SOCOLv3.1. This shows that ozone precursors (nitrogen oxides (NO
), carbon monoxide, methane and other volatile organic compounds) are responsible for more than 90% of the variance in tropospheric ozone. However, it may not be the emissions inventories themselves that result in the bias, but how the emissions are handled in SOCOLv3.1, and we discuss this in the wider context of the other CCMI models. Given that the emissions data set to be used for phase
of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project includes approximately 20% more NO
than the data set used for CCMI, further work is urgently needed to address the challenges of simulating sub-grid processes of importance to tropospheric ozone in the current generation of chemistry-climate models.
Major stratospheric sudden warmings (SSWs) are the largest instance of wintertime variability in the Arctic stratosphere. Due to their relevance for the troposphere-stratosphere system, several ...previous studies have focused on their potential response to anthropogenic forcings. However, a wide range of results have been reported, from a future increase in the frequency of SSWs to a decrease. Several factors might explain these contradictory results, notably the use of different metrics for the identification of SSWs, and the impact of large climatological biases in single-model studies. Here we revisit the question of future SSWs changes, using an identical set of metrics applied consistently across 12 different models participating in the Chemistry Climate Model Initiative. From analyzing future integrations we find no statistically significant change in the frequency of SSWs over the 21
century, irrespective of the metric used for the identification of SSWs. Changes in other SSWs characteristics, such as their duration and the tropospheric forcing, are also assessed: again, we find no evidence of future changes over the 21
century.
Climate model simulations show an acceleration of the
Brewer–Dobson circulation (BDC) in response to climate change. While the
general mechanisms for the BDC strengthening are widely understood, ...there
are still open questions concerning the influence of the details of the wave driving. Mean age of stratospheric air (AoA) is a useful transport
diagnostic for assessing changes in the BDC. Analyzing AoA from a subset of
Chemistry–Climate Model Initiative part 1 climate projection simulations, we
find a remarkable agreement between most of the models in simulating the
largest negative AoA trends in the extratropical lower to middle
stratosphere of both hemispheres (approximately between 20 and 25 geopotential kilometers (gpkm) and 20–50∘ N and S). We show that the occurrence of AoA trend minima in those regions is directly
related to the climatological AoA distribution, which is sensitive to an
upward shift of the circulation in response to climate change. Also other
factors like a reduction of aging by mixing (AbM) and residual circulation
transit times (RCTTs) contribute to the AoA distribution changes by widening
the AoA isolines. Furthermore, we analyze the time evolution of AbM and RCTT trends in the extratropics and examine the connection to possible drivers
focusing on local residual circulation strength, net tropical upwelling and
wave driving. However, after the correction for a vertical shift of pressure
levels, we find only seasonally significant trends of residual circulation
strength and zonal mean wave forcing (resolved and unresolved) without a
clear relation between the trends of the analyzed quantities. This indicates
that additional causative factors may influence the AoA, RCTT and AbM
trends. In this study, we postulate that the shrinkage of the stratosphere
has the potential to influence the RCTT and AbM trends and thereby cause
additional AoA changes over time.
Free-running and nudged versions of a Met Office chemistry–climate model are evaluated and used to investigate the impact of dynamics versus transport and chemistry within the model on the simulated ...evolution of stratospheric ozone. Metrics of the dynamical processes relevant for simulating stratospheric ozone are calculated, and the free-running model is found to outperform the previous model version in 10 of the 14 metrics. In particular, large biases in stratospheric transport and tropical tropopause temperature, which existed in the previous model version, are substantially reduced, making the current model more suitable for the simulation of stratospheric ozone. The spatial structure of the ozone hole, the area of polar stratospheric clouds, and the increased ozone concentrations in the Northern Hemisphere winter stratosphere following sudden stratospheric warmings, were all found to be sensitive to the accuracy of the dynamics and were better simulated in the nudged model than in the free-running model. Whilst nudging can, in general, provide a useful tool for removing the influence of dynamical biases from the evolution of chemical fields, this study shows that issues can remain in the climatology of nudged models. Significant biases in stratospheric vertical velocities, age of air, water vapour, and total column ozone still exist in the Met Office nudged model. Further, these can lead to biases in the downward flux of ozone into the troposphere.
Abstract Gravity‐wave (GW) parameterizations from 12 general circulation models (GCMs) participating in the Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation initiative (QBOi) are compared with Strateole 2 balloon ...observations made in the tropical lower stratosphere from November 2019–February 2020 (phase 1) and from October 2021–January 2022 (phase 2). The parameterizations employ the three standard techniques used in GCMs to represent subgrid‐scale non‐orographic GWs, namely the two globally spectral techniques developed by Warner and McIntyre (1999) and Hines (1997), as well as the “multiwaves” approaches following the work of Lindzen (1981). The input meteorological fields necessary to run the parameterizations offline are extracted from the ERA5 reanalysis and correspond to the meteorological conditions found underneath the balloons. In general, there is fair agreement between amplitudes derived from measurements for waves with periods less than h and parameterizations. The correlation between the daily observations and the corresponding results of the parameterization can be around 0.4, which is significant, since 1200 days of observations are used. Given that the parameterizations have only been tuned to produce a quasi‐biennial oscillation (QBO) in the models, the 0.4 correlation coefficient of the GW momentum fluxes is surprisingly good. These correlations nevertheless vary between schemes and depend little on their formulation (globally spectral versus multiwaves for instance). We therefore attribute these correlations to dynamical filtering, which all schemes take into account, whereas only a few relate the gravity waves to their sources. Statistically significant correlations are mostly found for eastward‐propagating waves, which may be due to the fact that during both Strateole 2 phases the QBO is easterly at the altitude of the balloon flights. We also found that the probability density functions (pdfs) of the momentum fluxes are represented better in spectral schemes with constant sources than in schemes (“spectral” or “multiwaves”) that relate GWs only to their convective sources.
In this paper results are presented from an improved version of the troposphere-stratosphere configuration of the Met Office Unified Model (UM). The new version incorporates a number of changes, ...including new radiation and orographic gravity wave parameterization schemes, an interannually varying sea surface temperature and sea ice climatology, and the inclusion of convective momentum transport. The UM climatology is compared with assimilated data and with results from a previous version of the UM. It is shown that the model cold biases in the January winter stratosphere and the January and July summer stratosphere are reduced, chiefly because the new radiation scheme is more accurate. The separation between subtropical and polar night jets in July is also better simulated. In addition, in the current version stratospheric planetary wave amplitudes in southern winter are less than half those in northern winter, which is in much better agreement with observations than the previous model version. Despite these improvements, the model still has a cold bias in the winter polar stratosphere, which suggests that the model representation of gravity wave drag is inadequate. Sensitivity tests were carried out and showed that the improved simulation of the separation of subtropical and polar night jets in July is due both to the different sea ice climatology and to the inclusion of convective momentum transport. The improved simulation of stationary wave amplitudes in July cannot be attributed to an individual model change, although it seems to be related to changed wave propagation and dissipation within the stratosphere rather than changes in the tropospheric forcing.
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