The La Niña and El Niño phases of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) have major impacts on regional rainfall patterns around the globe, with substantial environmental, societal and economic ...implications. Long-term perspectives on ENSO behaviour, under changing background conditions, are essential to anticipating how ENSO phases may respond under future climate scenarios. Here, we derive a 7700-year, quantitative precipitation record using carbon isotope ratios from a single species of leaf preserved in lake sediments from subtropical eastern Australia. We find a generally wet (more La Niña-like) mid-Holocene that shifted towards drier and more variable climates after 3200 cal. yr BP, primarily driven by increasing frequency and strength of the El Niño phase. Climate model simulations implicate a progressive orbitally-driven weakening of the Pacific Walker Circulation as contributing to this change. At centennial scales, high rainfall characterised the Little Ice Age (~1450-1850 CE) in subtropical eastern Australia, contrasting with oceanic proxies that suggest El Niño-like conditions prevail during this period. Our data provide a new western Pacific perspective on Holocene ENSO variability and highlight the need to address ENSO reconstruction with a geographically diverse network of sites to characterise how both ENSO, and its impacts, vary in a changing climate.
Breaking the hierarchy of galaxy formation Bower, R. G.; Benson, A. J.; Malbon, R. ...
Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society,
August 2006, Letnik:
370, Številka:
2
Journal Article
Recenzirano
Odprti dostop
Recent observations of the distant Universe suggest that much of the stellar mass of bright galaxies was already in place at z > 1. This presents a challenge for models of galaxy formation because ...massive haloes are assembled late in the hierarchical clustering process intrinsic to the cold dark matter (CDM) cosmology. In this paper, we discuss a new implementation of the Durham semi-analytic model of galaxy formation in which feedback due to active galactic nuclei (AGN) is assumed to quench cooling flows in massive haloes. This mechanism naturally creates a break in the local galaxy luminosity function at bright magnitudes. The model is implemented within the Millennium N-body simulation. The accurate dark matter merger trees and large number of realizations of the galaxy formation process enabled by this simulation result in highly accurate statistics. After adjusting the values of the physical parameters in the model by reference to the properties of the local galaxy population, we investigate the evolution of the K-band luminosity and galaxy stellar mass functions. We calculate the volume-averaged star formation rate density of the Universe as a function of redshift and the way in which this is apportioned amongst galaxies of different mass. The model robustly predicts a substantial population of massive galaxies out to redshift z∼ 5 and a star formation rate density which rises at least out to z∼ 2 in objects of all masses. Although observational data on these properties have been cited as evidence for 'antihierarchical' galaxy formation, we find that when AGN feedback is taken into account, the fundamentally hierarchical CDM model provides a very good match to these observations.
A quantitative understanding of the dynamics of biological neural networks is fundamental to gaining insight into information processing in the brain. While techniques exist to measure spatial or ...temporal properties of these networks, it remains a significant challenge to resolve the neural dynamics with subcellular spatial resolution. In this work we consider a fundamentally new form of wide-field imaging for neuronal networks based on the nanoscale magnetic field sensing properties of optically active spins in a diamond substrate. We analyse the sensitivity of the system to the magnetic field generated by an axon transmembrane potential and confirm these predictions experimentally using electronically-generated neuron signals. By numerical simulation of the time dependent transmembrane potential of a morphologically reconstructed hippocampal CA1 pyramidal neuron, we show that the imaging system is capable of imaging planar neuron activity non-invasively at millisecond temporal resolution and micron spatial resolution over wide-fields.
Current models of galaxy formation predict satellite galaxies in groups and clusters that are redder than observed. We investigate the effect on the colours of satellite galaxies produced by the ...ram-pressure stripping of their hot-gaseous atmospheres as the satellites orbit within their parent halo. We incorporate a model of the stripping process based on detailed hydrodynamic simulations within the Durham semi-analytic model of galaxy formation. The simulations show that the environment in groups and clusters is less aggressive than previously assumed. The main uncertainty in the model is the treatment of gas expelled by supernovae. With reasonable assumptions for the stripping of this material, we find that satellite galaxies are able to retain a significant fraction of their hot gas for several Gyr, thereby replenishing their reservoirs of cold, star-forming gas and remaining blue for a relatively long period of time. A bimodal distribution of galaxy colours, similar to that observed in Sloan Digital Sky Survey data, is established and the colours of the satellite galaxies are in good agreement with the data. In addition, our model naturally accounts for the observed dependence of satellite colours on environment, from small groups to high-mass clusters.
GDF15, a hormone acting on the brainstem, has been implicated in the nausea and vomiting of pregnancy, including its most severe form, hyperemesis gravidarum (HG), but a full mechanistic ...understanding is lacking
. Here we report that fetal production of GDF15 and maternal sensitivity to it both contribute substantially to the risk of HG. We confirmed that higher GDF15 levels in maternal blood are associated with vomiting in pregnancy and HG. Using mass spectrometry to detect a naturally labelled GDF15 variant, we demonstrate that the vast majority of GDF15 in the maternal plasma is derived from the feto-placental unit. By studying carriers of rare and common genetic variants, we found that low levels of GDF15 in the non-pregnant state increase the risk of developing HG. Conversely, women with β-thalassaemia, a condition in which GDF15 levels are chronically high
, report very low levels of nausea and vomiting of pregnancy. In mice, the acute food intake response to a bolus of GDF15 is influenced bi-directionally by prior levels of circulating GDF15 in a manner suggesting that this system is susceptible to desensitization. Our findings support a putative causal role for fetally derived GDF15 in the nausea and vomiting of human pregnancy, with maternal sensitivity, at least partly determined by prepregnancy exposure to the hormone, being a major influence on its severity. They also suggest mechanism-based approaches to the treatment and prevention of HG.
Kaiser Wilhelm II, Queen Victoria's eldest grandchild, took over the running of the powerful German Reich from Bismarck and within a couple of decades had led it into world war and collapse. How did ...the Kaiser come to have so much power? Why was there no one to help him steer a less disastrous course? This book analyses these crucial questions with the help of a wealth of new archival sources. The book begins with a character-sketch of the Kaiser which provides new and alarming insights into his personality. It then looks, crucially, at the Kaiser's friends and favourites, the neo-absolutist culture of the court and of Berlin court society, and at the nature of his relationship with the court on the one hand and with the administrative 'pyramid' in Prussia and the Reich on the other. The book makes clear that these bureaucrats and diplomats had neither the means nor the will to oppose the overwhelming determination of the Kaiser and his close friends and advisers in directing the policies of the most dynamic and volatile state in Europe. The dangerous consequences of this situation led to the brink of world war as early as December 1912. A final chapter reveals for the first time the appalling extent and nature of the exiled Kaiser's anti-semitism.
The Arctic is warming at almost four times the global rate. An estimated sixty percent of greenhouse‐gas‐induced Arctic warming has been offset by anthropogenic aerosols, but the contribution of ...aerosols to radiative forcing (RF) represents the largest uncertainty in estimating total RF, largely due to unknown preindustrial aerosol abundance. Here, sulfur isotope measurements in a Greenland ice core show that passive volcanic degassing contributes up to 66 ± 10% of preindustrial ice core sulfate in years without major eruptions. A state‐of‐the‐art model indicates passive volcanic sulfur emissions influencing the Arctic are underestimated by up to a factor of three, possibly because many volcanic inventories do not include hydrogen sulfide emissions. Higher preindustrial volcanic sulfur emissions reduce modeled anthropogenic Arctic aerosol cooling by up to a factor of two (+0.11 to +0.29 W m−2), suggesting that underestimating passive volcanic sulfur emissions has significant implications for anthropogenic‐induced Arctic climate change.
Plain Language Summary
Sulfate aerosols are particles in the atmosphere that have a net cooling effect on the climate. One of the most uncertain aspects of climate modeling is the abundance of sulfate aerosols during the preindustrial era. Without knowing the amount of sulfate aerosols during the preindustrial, it is difficult to estimate how much anthropogenic sulfate aerosols have offset warming from anthropogenic greenhouse gases. In this study, we examine preindustrial sulfate aerosols in a Greenland ice core. We find that sulfate aerosols from passive (i.e., non‐eruptive) volcanic degassing contribute almost two thirds of preindustrial Arctic sulfate aerosols in years without major volcanic eruptions. We compare this result to a state‐of‐the‐art global model and find that most climate models use a volcanic emissions inventory that underestimates preindustrial passive volcanic sulfur emissions. That volcanic inventory only includes one type of sulfur emission (sulfur dioxide), but studies have shown that volcanoes emit hydrogen sulfide, which can also form sulfate aerosols. We show that higher emissions of volcanic sulfur during the preindustrial era decrease the estimated cooling effect of anthropogenic aerosols during the industrial era. Thus, the underestimate of preindustrial volcanic emissions in current climate models has significant implications for anthropogenic climate change in the Arctic.
Key Points
Sulfur isotopes in a Greenland ice core show that passive volcanic degassing contributes 66% of preindustrial Arctic sulfate
The volcanic inventory used by most climate models underestimates passive degassing, possibly due to missing hydrogen sulfide emissions
Elevated preindustrial passive volcanic degassing reduces the estimated cooling effect of anthropogenic sulfate in the Arctic
The parameter space of galaxy formation Bower, R. G.; Vernon, I.; Goldstein, M. ...
Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society,
October 2010, Letnik:
407, Številka:
4
Journal Article
Recenzirano
Odprti dostop
Semi-analytic models are a powerful tool for studying the formation of galaxies. However, these models inevitably involve a significant number of poorly constrained parameters that must be adjusted ...to provide an acceptable match to the observed Universe. In this paper, we set out to quantify the degree to which observational data sets can constrain the model parameters. By revealing degeneracies in the parameter space we can hope to better understand the key physical processes probed by the data. We use novel mathematical techniques to explore the parameter space of the galform semi-analytic model. We base our investigation on the Bower et al. version of galform, adopting the same methodology of selecting model parameters based on an acceptable match to the local bJ and K luminosity functions. Since the galform model is inherently approximate, we explicitly include a model discrepancy term when deciding if a match is acceptable or not. The model contains 16 parameters that are poorly constrained by our prior understanding of the galaxy formation processes and that can plausibly be adjusted between reasonable limits. We investigate this parameter space using the Model Emulator technique, constructing a Bayesian approximation to the galform model that can be rapidly evaluated at any point in parameter space. The emulator returns both an expectation for the galform model and an uncertainty which allows us to eliminate regions of parameter space in which it is implausible that a galform run would match the luminosity function data. By combining successive waves of emulation, we show that only 0.26 per cent of the initial volume is of interest for further exploration. However, within this region we show that the Bower et al. model is only one choice from an extended subspace of model parameters that can provide equally acceptable fits to the luminosity function data. We explore the geometry of this region and begin to explore the physical connections between parameters that are exposed by this analysis. We also consider the impact of adding additional observational data to further constrain the parameter space. We see that the known tensions existing in the Bower et al. model lead to a further reduction in the successful parameter space.
We use a self-consistent model of galaxy formation and the evolution of the intergalactic medium to study the effects of the reionization of the Universe at high redshift on the properties of ...satellite galaxies like those seen around the Milky Way. Photoionization suppresses the formation of small galaxies, so that surviving satellites are preferentially those that formed before the Universe reionized. As a result, the number of satellites expected today is about an order of magnitude smaller than the number inferred by identifying satellites with subhaloes of the same circular velocity in high-resolution simulations of the dark matter. The resulting satellite population has an abundance similar to that observed in the Local Group, although the distribution of circular velocities differs somewhat from the available data. We explore many other properties of satellite galaxies, including their gas content, metallicity and star formation rate, and find generally good agreement with available data. Our model predicts the existence of many as yet undetected satellites in the Local Group. We quantify their observability in terms of their apparent magnitude and surface brightness, and also in terms of their constituent stars. A near-complete census of the Milky Way's satellites would require imaging to V≈20 and to a surface brightness fainter than 26 V-band magnitudes per square arcsecond. Satellites with integrated luminosity V=15 should contain of order 100 stars brighter than B=26, with central stellar densities of a few tens per square arcminute. Discovery of a large population of faint satellites would provide a strong test of current models of galaxy formation.
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